Philippines poised to gain as nickel steadies, gold peaks in 2026

Nickel prices are projected to remain subdued in the near term before recovering later in the decade while gold is expected to hit record highs next year before easing, trends that could bolster the Philippines’ position as one of the world’s top metal producers.

In a presentation at the Mining Philippines 2025 conference at the Grand Hyatt Hotel in Taguig, market intelligence firm S and P Global said nickel prices have remained range-bound amid persistent oversupply.

It said production from the Philippines and China has stayed resilient, supported by a forecast price of $15,500 per metric ton this year.

Despite this, it forecasts that the market will shift into deficit by 2032 as demand from electric vehicles and clean energy technologies accelerates.

Gold, meanwhile, has been the best-performing metal since 2023, with prices climbing from $1,843 per ounce to $4,040 per ounce as of Oct. 8, a 119 percent increase based on London Bullion Market Association data.

Prices are expected to hit record highs in 2025 and peak in 2026 before modest corrections as markets stabilize.

Across major metals, gold is forecast to post the strongest price growth through 2035 followed by copper, cobalt and nickel.

S and P Global said long-term demand from the global energy transition would sustain structural supply shortfalls over the next decade.

The Philippines accounted for 10.2 percent of global nickel production in 2024, making it the second-largest producer worldwide and holding 10.5 percent of global reserves, ranking third.

It also contributes 0.9 percent to global gold output and holds 1.3 percent of total gold reserves.

For cobalt, the Philippines makes up 1.6 percent of world production and 1.5 percent of reserves.

8 flood mess cases filed in court next month

Seven to eight criminal cases are being readied for filing with the Sandiganbayan by next month in connection with anomalous flood control projects, according to Ombudsman Jesus Crispin Remulla.

He said the cases to be filed may include malversation of public funds, graft, or the complex crime of malversation of public funds through falsification of public documents.

‘We have seven or eight cases that we can file already in Sandiganbayan before the end of November,’ Remulla said in an interview with The STAR’s ‘Truth on the Line’ on Wednesday.

With the huge amounts involved, the malversation cases will be non-bailable and could warrant life in prison, he said.

Remulla commended the Independent Commission for Infrastructure (ICI) for transmitting a report on its investigation to the ombudsman along with some pieces of evidence. The move, he said, will hasten the ombudsman’s preliminary investigation.

The ICI report covers the P289.5 million worth of flood control projects in Naujan, Oriental Mindoro implemented by the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) Region 4-B through contractor Sunwest Inc. in 2024.

In its report, the ICI urged the ombudsman to determine appropriate charges against 18 public officials, including resigned congressman Zaldy Co.

‘It is a good report. It is already backed by evidence. Our preliminary investigation is already ongoing. So we expect to be filing cases in the Sandiganbayan also, besides what’s to be filed in the RTC (regional trial court),’ Remulla said.

Remulla said he has deputized the prosecutors of the Department of Justice (DOJ) to prosecute the five flood control cases in Bulacan involving public officials under Salary Grade 26 or below.

‘The five flood control cases that they (DOJ prosecutors) investigated, I reverted them back to DOJ so that it will not undergo vetting again in the Office of the Ombudsman. I told them to direct (the cases) to the RTC,’ Remulla said.

Section 2 of RA10660, which introduced amendments to the Sandiganbayan’s functions and structural organization, transferred to the RTCs the exclusive jurisdiction over cases that do not allege ‘any damage to the government or any bribery,’ or ‘if the amount of the alleged damage to the government or bribery arising from the same or closely related transactions or acts does not exceed P1 million.’

Remulla said that for cases involving bigger amounts of funds and higher-ranking government officials, his office will file them with the Sandiganbayan by next month.

Asked what cases would be filed, Remulla said possibly multiple counts of malversation of public funds and malversation through falsification.

He said prosecuting a plunder case may be difficult under the current law, which requires the identification of the main plunderer who must have accumulated ill-gotten wealth of at least P50 million.

‘I would still consult with the courts about this phenomenon of making plunder a very hard to convict case. Very few were convicted of plunder in the history of the Philippine (legal system),’ Remulla said.

‘So, if we can have other resort, if we can resort to other statutes to have this desired effect, we might as well do it now,’ he added.

Remulla pointed out that conviction for multiple counts of malversation of public funds as well as for the complex crime of malversation through falsification is also punishable with life imprisonment or 20 to 40 years behind bars.

‘It works well with ghost projects, I think. And because it’s ghost project, there’s definitely falsification and there’s malversation, that’s a sure thing,’ he said in Filipino.

Plea bargain

He also said on ‘Truth on the Line’ that he wants enlightenment from the Supreme Court and the Sandiganbayan on the possibility of entering into plea bargain deals with several congressmen who are open to restitution.

He said 67 incumbent and former congressmen may be involved in the flood control project anomalies, based on his office’s investigation.

‘They will still have to plead to a lesser offense. But I would still have to talk to the Sandiganbayan on this. I will also consult with the Supreme Court. Maybe I’ll talk to Senior Associate Justice Marvic Leonen to discuss the metes and bounds of this [plea-bargain],’ Remulla said.

Remulla said a majority of the lawmakers whom he dubbed as the ‘cong-tractors,’ have already expressed intention to ‘come clean’ and return to the government the amount that they had amassed from the scam.

‘There are some congressmen, ‘congtractors’ as we call them, who want to come clean and return [their loot]. So, the money that they have amassed, they must return it. There are rumored to be 67 of them and many of them, I think, are willing to come clean,’ he said.

Asked if the ombudsman has any ballpark figure on the amount that can be recovered, Remulla said about ‘a few billion’ pesos.

‘Of course there will be some resistance [against plea bargain] for sure. For those who would want to continue with the trial of their cases, we are ready for that. We’re ready for the litigation. That’s what the office was created for. That’s why we have so many litigators. We have so many prosecutors,’ he added.

At a briefing, DOJ spokesman Polo Martinez said their prosecutors aim to finish the probe on the five ‘ghost’ flood control projects within a month.

‘We will try to finish everything within a month. We’ve already deputized the panel of DOJ prosecutors to conduct preliminary investigation so it can go straight to the courts if it meets the standard,’ Martinez said in Filipino.

He also said those wanting to be state witnesses must first return the stolen government funds before they can be considered.

‘It’s just like applying for a job or school, there are conditions set. If you’re not ready to meet the conditions, it’s up to you. But we also cannot give you what you’re asking for,’ he said.

He cited that Section 5(d) of Republic Act No. 6981, which requires that an applicant for state witness must comply with his legal obligation under the law, which is the restitution of stolen government funds.

‘We can proceed if the evidence is sufficient, we can proceed with trial. If their statements cannot provide a direct link to the crimes, to the anomalies conducted, (they’re) not imperative. Their statements are not that important, they’re not crucial,’ Martinez said.

Jail ready

Meanwhile, Interior and Local Government Secretary Jonvic Remulla inspected the Pasay City jail yesterday to check on its readiness to accommodate some of the officials who may be ordered detained by the courts while on trial for involvement in the flood control mess.

‘If they are indicted in court, they will be placed here as regular inmates,’ Remulla said. ‘There is no longer a La Catedral, no longer a place for rich people to live inside the prison. The law is the law and we will follow it, no matter how painful it gets for anyone,’ he added.

The Pasay City Jail, designed to accommodate 103 inmates, currently holds 964 inmates, or a congestion rate of more than 800 percent.

Remulla said the accused would be detained in common cells without air conditioning.

‘I gave strict instructions that no one is allowed to place an inmate in the warden’s office,’ he said, noting that the warden’s office is the only air-conditioned area in the facility.

He also clarified that the PNP Custodial Center at Camp Crame would not be used as detention center for those found involved in the flood-control controversy.

To ensure transparency, he said the Bureau of Jail Management and Penology will implement CCTV monitoring of jail personnel and operations.

Budget deficit narrows to P248 billion

The national government’s budget deficit narrowed to less than P250 billion in September, driven by a sharp decline in government expenditures, according to the latest data released by the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr).

Data showed that the Marcos administration recorded a budget shortfall of P248.1 billion in September, which is 9.2 percent lower than the P273.3 billion deficit posted in the same month last year.

Month-on-month, the latest figure is nearly three times larger than the P84.8 billion recorded in August.

A budget deficit occurs when government expenditures exceed revenue collections, meaning the state spends more money than it generates.

Despite a decline in government expenditure in September, a slowdown in the administration’s revenue collection prevailed.

Treasury data indicated that total revenue collection during the month slowed to P281.7 billion, representing a nearly six-percent decline from P299.7 billion in the same month in 2024.

The Bureau of Internal Revenue remained the top contributor in September as collections increased by 4.7 percent to P183 billion from P174.7 billion a year ago.

‘This was driven by increased collections from corporate income tax, personal income tax, value-added tax, excise tax on tobacco and percentage tax on banks or financial institutions,’ the BTr said.

Collections of the Bureau of Customs also increased by 5.25 percent to P80.3 billion during the month from P76.3 billion in September last year.

However, non-tax revenues underperformed, declining by 65.8 percent to P15.8 billion. This represents a P30.4-billion cut from P46.2 billion in September last year.

From January to September, the budget deficit widened by 15.1 percent to P1.12 trillion from P970.2 billion in the same period last year.

Total revenue collections for the nine-month period stood at P3.37 trillion, a surge of 2.24 percent from last year’s P3.29 trillion.

Meanwhile, the total expenditures were higher by 5.2 percent, at P4.48 trillion from P4.26 trillion in the same period last year.

Vehicle sales dip 4% in September

The automotive industry’s sales declined for the third consecutive month in September due to unfavorable weather conditions.

Data released by the Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines Inc. (CAMPI) and Truck Manufacturers Association (TMA) showed that combined sales slipped by four percent to 38,029 units in September from 39,542 units in the same month last year.

However, vehicle sales in September were five percent higher than the 36,174 units sold in August.

Passenger car sales fell by 24 percent to 7,948 units in September from 10,438 units in the same month a year ago.

Commercial vehicle sales, on the other hand, went up by 3.4 percent to 30,081 units from 29,104.

The data also showed that sales of electric vehicles (EVs) reached 2,223 units in September.

Of the total EVs sold in September, 1,750 units are hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), 379 are battery electric vehicles (BEV) and 94 are plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV).

‘The year-on-year decline in vehicle sales could partly reflect higher base or denominator effects a year ago amid weather-related disruption amid the series of storms or typhoons or flooding in recent weeks or months, as well as the series of earthquakes in some parts of the country, all of which reduced the number of working days or business days,’ Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. chief economist Michael Ricafort said.

He added that the growth in motorcycle sales in recent months might have also affected demand for cars.

Ricafort said motorcycles ‘could have become a cheaper or better alternative transport for some Filipinos, in terms of lower acquisition costs, maintenance costs, fuel consumption and space requirements.’

From January to September, CAMPI and TMA’s total vehicles sales dipped by 0.3 percent to 343,410 units from 344,307 units in the same period last year.

Sales of the passenger car segment fell by 24 percent to 69,306 units during the nine-month period from last year’s 90,765 units.

Meanwhile, commercial vehicle sales went up by eight percent to 274,104 units from 253,329 units.

EV sales reached 20,662 units from January to September.

Of the total EVs sold, 16,335 units were HEVs, 3,657 units are BEVs and 670 units are PHEVs.

Toyota Motor Philippines Corp. remained the leading automotive player with its 48 percent market share from January to September.

Mitsubishi Motors Philippines Corp. placed second with 19 percent, followed by Ford Motor Co. Philippines Inc. with 4.86 percent, Nissan Philippines Inc. with 4.84 percent and Suzuki Philippines Inc. with 4.77 percent.

Tobacco farmers to lose P1 billion as cigarette smuggling persists

The country’s tobacco farmers are projected to lose nearly P1 billion this year as smuggled cigarettes continue to flood the market, illustrating the losses from unchecked illicit trade that has long hurt local growers and the wider tobacco industry.

In a statement, the Philippine Tobacco Growers Association (PTGA) said local farmers stand to lose about P978 million in income in 2025 due to illegal cigarettes that continue to dominate markets across several regions.

‘This is the money we use to survive. Without it, we struggle to send our kids to school, buy fertilizer or even put food on the table,’ PTGA president Saturnino Distor said.

He added that the issue is not just economic but deeply personal for tobacco growers.

‘This is not just about breaking the law. This is about breaking the hearts of hardworking farmers,’ he said.

Based on PTGA estimates, around 11.8 billion sticks of smuggled cigarettes will be sold in the country this year.

Industry figures show these illegal products are being sold for as little as P2 per stick, compared to about P7 for legitimate brands, making them far cheaper and easier to buy, particularly for minors.

The association said this is equivalent to about 9.4 million kilos of tobacco that could have come from local farms.

With an average farmgate price of P104.09 per kilo, the PTGA said this translates to roughly P17,000 in lost income for each of the group’s 59,000 members.

The group warned that cigarette smuggling not only threatens farmers’ livelihoods but also affects the country’s broader economy as the government loses around P40 billion annually from illegal sales.

PTGA said the losses could have funded programs under the Philippine Health Insurance Corp. (PhilHealth) and the Department of Health (DOH) to support Filipinos’ medical needs.

Distor also lamented the lack of arrests or prosecutions under the Anti-Agricultural Economic Sabotage Law passed last year to curb large-scale smuggling of agricultural products.

Capitol earmarks P542 million recovery funds for Northern Cebu

The Cebu Provincial Government has allocated a ?542.3-million Trust Fund to finance rehabilitation and resiliency projects in northern Cebu towns devastated by the 6.9-magnitude earthquake last month.

Assistant Provincial Administrator Aldwin Empaces said the proposed fund will cover infrastructure restoration, livelihood rehabilitation, and continuing relief assistance for thousands of displaced residents still staying in temporary shelters.

‘Looking at it in a recovery and rehabilitation lens, still applying the three fundamental approaches of disaster and resiliency work, which is a budget for preparedness, a budget for relief assistance, and a budget for recovery and rehabilitation,’ Empaces said.

Of the total amount, ?238 million has been set aside for the restoration and rehabilitation of roads and bridges, while ?49 million will go to food, non-food items, and hygiene kits for affected families.

The Capitol also plans to spend ?51 million for mobile kitchens, ?20 million for agricultural recovery-including fisheries, aquaculture, and crop rehabilitation-and ?15 million for livestock and poultry recovery, which includes repairs of slaughterhouses and farm housing.

To strengthen response capability, ?14 million is allocated for rescue equipment such as gears and drones, and another ?14 million for furnishing the Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office (PDRRMO) Command Center to be stationed in Bogo City.

Other allocations include ?5.5 million for container houses and vans, ?50 million for sea ambulances, and ?10 million for vehicle and sea ambulance rentals good for one year. The province is also eyeing ?64.2 million for mobile clinics, ambulances, emergency vehicles, and motorcycles, ?2.2 million for fire extinguishers and hoses, ?1 million for flat and rescue boats, and ?1.1 million for water supply equipment.

The Capitol likewise plans to spend ?6 million to rehabilitate and repair government buildings and facilities such as the Provincial Planning and Development Office (PPDO), the Bids and Awards Committee (BAC) Office, and the Assessor’s Office. The remaining ?1.3 million will fund environmental supplies and other disaster-related activities.

Empaces said the fund will be sourced from multiple streams, including the Capitol’s Quick Response Fund (QRF) from 2020 to 2024, accumulated QRF balances, and newly approved allocations in the 2025 budget. Of the ?542 million, ?371 million comes from government funds, while ?134.6 million represents donations as of October 20, 2025.

‘The total donations amount to ?134,611,077.73,’ Empaces said, adding that ?50 million came from the Office of the President and ?84.6 million from private individuals, organizations, and local government units.

The establishment of the Trust Fund follows a directive from Governor Pamela Baricuatro to ensure that all expenditures are aligned with the province’s structured recovery framework, Kumbati Cebu-the comprehensive rehabilitation and recovery program for quake-hit areas.

Under Kumbati Cebu, the Provincial Rehabilitation and Recovery Council (PRRC), also known as the Kumbati Cebu Task Force, will serve as the central coordinating body for all reconstruction and recovery initiatives across the province.

Meanwhile, preparations are underway for the Capitol’s assumption of management over the tent cities in Bogo, San Remigio, and Medellin, which continue to shelter displaced residents.

Empaces said the turnover from the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) and the Philippine Red Cross will begin gradually starting tomorrow, October 25, with the Provincial Social Welfare and Development Office (PSWDO) taking the lead.

‘Mag-augment mig tao, mang-hire mig JO (job order personnel),’ Empaces said, noting that full management is expected to be formalized by October 30 once staffing and operational plans are finalized.

4,000 households need repair before CEBECO restores power

Around 4,000 households in northern Cebu have been identified for total rehabilitation or repair after sustaining severe structural damage from the 6.9-magnitude earthquake that struck the province on September 30, 2025, the Cebu II Electric Cooperative, Inc. (CEBECO II) reported.

‘Before we can energize these homes, we need to secure clearance from the Office of the Building Official of each municipality. We will not reconnect power unless the structure is inspected and declared safe,’ said Lowell Belciña, CEBECO II general manager, during the Kapihan sa PIA7 forum yesterday.

Belciña said the cooperative is prioritizing safety inspections to prevent electrical hazards in quake-damaged homes.

He assured that power delivery across northern Cebu remains stable, provided there is consistent supply from generation companies and transmission lines maintained by the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP).

‘There’s no problem with the delivery of power as long as generation and transmission systems are stable,’ Belciña said.

To ease the financial burden on affected consumers, Belciña announced that CEBECO II’s Board of Directors has waived surcharges for electricity bills in quake-hit areas for the September 2025 billing.

‘We understand the situation of our consumers. For those unable to pay their September bills, which were due in October, we will not impose penalties or surcharges,’ he said.

Belciña said CEBECO II, which serves 11 towns and two cities from Compostela to Daanbantayan, was among the cooperatives directly affected by the quake. The tremor initially caused a total blackout across its service areas due to transmission disruptions at NGCP facilities.

‘By 4 a.m. on October 1, our engineers and linemen were already deployed to assess the damage. We prioritized hospitals, water systems, and LGUs to ensure the continuity of essential services,’ he added.

By October 5, CEBECO II had fully restored electricity in all barangays within its franchise area. However, households located in no-build zones will remain disconnected until they receive safety clearance.

‘As long as households are cleared and ready to receive power, we are also ready to reconnect them,’ Belciña assured.

The cooperative reported a total of 86 electric poles and 16 transformers damaged across its coverage area.

‘Our total damage count is 86 poles and 16 transformers within our coverage area. Many of these have already been replaced, and those found structurally sound during inspection were reinstalled and reenergized,’ he said.

Belciña noted that the extent of damage was minimal compared to Typhoon Yolanda, allowing restoration to be completed swiftly and with limited service interruption.

Meanwhile, Engr. Marcelino Bagatsolon, Senior Manager for Operations and Maintenance of NGCP Cebu-Bohol Area, assured that power transmission in northern Cebu remains stable and manageable despite the quake’s impact.

Bagatsolon said the Visayas grid interconnection continues to play a key role in maintaining stability and reliability during emergencies.

‘From Daanbantayan down to Danao, we encountered no problems in power delivery. The grid remains flexible and interconnectable, which allows us to assist nearby areas such as Bohol,’ he said.

Through this interconnected network, NGCP can help supply power to Bohol via transmission lines from Argao to Maribojoc, ensuring energy resources can be shared across regions when needed.

Technician dead, 2 co-workers hurt in accidental electrocution

A 23-year-old male technician died instantly while his two co-workers remain in critical condition after an accidental electrocution while setting up a roadside solar street light in Barangay Libertad, Surallah, South Cotabato, on Thursday, October 23.

Employees of the Surallah Municipal Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office and officials of the Police Regional Office-12 told reporters on Friday, October 24, that the fatality, identified only as Ian at the request of his family, and his two companions were electrocuted when the tip of a galvanized metal pipe they were setting up as a post for the solar street light hit a dangling high-tension power line of the South Cotabato Electric Cooperative.

Barangay officials and investigators from the Surallah municipal police said Ian died instantly, while his co-workers, Roberto, 51, and Rafael, 37, were badly injured.

The two, who sustained burns and contusions in different parts of their bodies, are now confined in a hospital undergoing extensive medical treatment.

The office of South Cotabato Gov. Reynaldo Tamayo has assured assistance to Ian’s family in Banga town, not far from Surallah, in facilitating his burial.

Yulo edged by Jarman for floor exercise gold at gymnastics worlds

Carlos Yulo’s gold rush has momentarily screeched to a halt.

It came to be after the Filipino Paris Olympics double gold medalist was denied the floor exercise gold by Great Britain’s Jake Jarman and settled for a bronze in the 53rd Artistic Gymnastics World Championships in Jakarta, Indonesia Friday.

The 25-year-old spectacle from Leveriza in Manila had a 14.533, which wasn’t enough to prevent Jarman from seizing the latter’s breakthrough mint with a 114.866 in the Worlds and in the same apparatus the former used to dominate.

Another Brit in Luke Whitehouse took the silver with a 14.666.

It was sweet revenge for Jarman, who had a bronze in Paris where he was reduced to a spectator by Yulo’s magnificence after the Filipino captured one of the two golds he snared in the French capital.

It must be Yulo’s hand, which he sprained going into the annual event.

It will be the same pair of hands that he will use when he shoots for a medal, possibly a gold, in the vault Saturday.

Yulo eyeing his third gold in Jakarta following his exploits in Stuttgart, Germany in 2019 and Kitakyushu, Japan three years ago.

Thai takes solo lead

The road to redemption for Thai Sarit Suwannarut starts here.

Out to make up for his recent heartbreaker in Macau, Suwannarut turned in a near-flawless eight-under 64 to overshadow the big guns in the International Series Philippines presented by BingoPlus yesterday.

The Thai ace got things going by birdying six of his first 10 holes from the backside of the Sta. Elena Golf Club. He then countered a lone bogey on the par-3 No. 2 with four birdies en route to the strong 32-32 opener that he recorded two weeks after blowing a two-shot lead in the final round of the Macau Open and settling for fourth.

When the rest of the star-studded 144-player field that counts four major winners had submitted their scorecards, Suwannarut found himself alone at the top.

He’s one up on Japanese Kazuki Higa, who submitted a bogey-free 65 for solo second with Americans Charles Porter and George Kneiser, Scotland’s Richard Bland and Thailand’s Chapchai Nirat a stroke back at 66s.

Two-time major titlist Dustin Johnson, who drew a large admiring crowd clutching phones to capture his movements in his marquee flight with Pinoy star Miguel Tabuena, shot a 67 for a share of seventh. Tabuena made a 69, a card matched by compatriot Clyde Mondilla, for joint 23rd.

Tabuena was even through 14 holes then strung up three birdies in his last four.

‘I’m pretty pleased with how I finished and I think it’s what I needed,’ said the home bet, who drew extra energy from supporters on-ground.

‘They were out in full force and just to hear my name from the crowd every single shot, no matter what happened with my shots or my game, they were always there. And it’s nice because I don’t get that every week. So I’m going to use that as a positive and try to play for them this week.’

‘It was perfect. I’ve been playing pretty good. I mean, before a round, I know I can share the ball number with my caddie and hit the shots. I tell myself, you can hit it, you can do it,’ said Suwannarut.

It’s also the comeback of sorts on Philippine soil for the 27-year-old parbuster, who failed to make the cut and finished tied 97th at the Smart Infinity Philippine Open last January.

In front of several fans, former world No. 1 Johnson went to work, gunning down nine birdies to offset his double-bogey mishap on the par-4 15th and two bogeys in the front.

‘Any time you made nine birdies, you played well. I had a lot of really good shots, a lot of good looks at birdie. One bad drive on 15, I ended up making a double. But other than that, it was a really solid round,’ said Johnson.