ASUU declares indefinite strike at Taraba varsity

The Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU), Taraba State University chapter, has declared an indefinite strike over alleged failure by the state government to implement an agreed remuneration framework and settle outstanding salary arrears.

The industrial action took effect on Monday, October 12, following months of negotiations between the union and the Taraba State Government.

Premium Times reported on Tuesday that the union’s chairman, Joshua Mbave, said the decision followed unsuccessful efforts to resolve the dispute through dialogue.

According to the report, the disagreements concern the implementation of an agreed salary structure, unpaid salary arrears dating back to January, and outstanding earned academic allowances.

Mbave said the union had engaged the state government on the issues since February 2026 but had yet to secure the implementation of the agreed remuneration framework.

The dispute persisted despite the establishment of committees to examine the salary structure, assess the financial implications of implementing the agreement and determine the outstanding obligations.

Premium Times reported that a verification committee submitted its findings on September 24, but the union said the necessary implementation had not followed.

The Taraba State Government had approved a Tertiary Institutions’ Staff Remuneration and Workforce Planning Committee on September 30 to review remuneration and workforce planning across the state’s tertiary institutions.

However, ASUU-TSU maintained that further reviews should not delay the implementation of agreements already reached.

The union also alleged that Taraba State University was the only university among the 19 northern states yet to implement the agreed remuneration framework. That claim has not been independently verified.

The state government said the new committee was intended to promote quality tertiary education, fair treatment of staff and responsible management of public finances.

ASUU-TSU said it remained open to negotiations but urged the government to implement the agreed salary structure, pay outstanding arrears and honour its previous commitments.

The strike threatens to disrupt academic activities at the institution, with its duration likely to depend on the outcome of negotiations between the union and the state government.

Nigeria seeks action against terrorists’ use of AI, drones

Nigeria has called for intensified regional efforts to disrupt terrorists’ exploitation of artificial intelligence (AI), drones and virtual assets for propaganda, recruitment and financing across West Africa and the Sahel.

Maj.-Gen. Adamu Laka, National Coordinator of the National Counter Terrorism Centre (NCTC), Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA), made the call on Tuesday in Abuja.

He spoke at the opening of a three-day regional training of trainers on ‘Detecting and Disrupting Terrorists’ Use of Information and Communication Technologies in West Africa and the Sahel’.

ONSA organised the training in collaboration with the African Union Counter-Terrorism Centre (AUCTC) and the Sahel’s Fusion and Liaison Unit (UFL).

Laka said terrorist groups were increasingly exploiting digital technologies to recruit members, radicalise individuals, coordinate operations and raise funds across national borders.

He identified social media, messaging applications, AI-generated content, autonomous systems and cryptocurrency transactions as emerging tools being deployed by terrorist networks.

The NCTC coordinator stressed the need for regional security agencies to strengthen their capacity to anticipate, detect, analyse and disrupt digital threats before they materialised.

He said Nigeria could not afford to lag behind in addressing the evolving threat, emphasising the need to develop experts capable of countering technology-enabled terrorism.

‘The need to build a new generation of experts capable of anticipating and disrupting digital threats before they materialise cannot be overemphasised,’ Laka said.

He explained that the three-day programme was designed to equip participants with the knowledge and skills required to train others in their respective countries.

According to him, the initiative goes beyond acquiring technological tools to developing people, strengthening institutions and building partnerships for responsible technology use.

‘The goal is not just to acquire technology but to develop people, institutions and partnerships that can use technology responsibly for counterterrorism,’ he said.

Laka described regional cooperation as critical to tackling the threat, urging security agencies to improve intelligence sharing and establish lawful mechanisms for exchanging cyber threat information.

He said effective collaboration would enable countries to respond more quickly to threats that transcend national borders and exploit weaknesses in individual security systems.

The coordinator also disclosed that the NCTC was transitioning into a Regional Centre of Excellence for counterterrorism.

He said the initiative aligned with President Bola Tinubu’s declaration at the 2024 High-Level Africa Counterterrorism Summit held in Abuja.

According to Laka, the centre is working with the AUCTC to secure accreditation for the proposed regional role.

He said accreditation would enable the NCTC to extend capacity-building support to other countries under the AUCTC Continental Cybersecurity Capability Programme 2026-2030.

Laka urged participants, drawn from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the Multinational Joint Task Force and regional intelligence structures, to maximise the training.

He challenged them to replicate the knowledge acquired and strengthen their countries’ ability to detect and disrupt terrorists’ use of emerging technologies.

‘Information only becomes valuable when it is shared responsibly and converted into actionable intelligence through trusted relationships and effective systems,’ he said.

Earlier, the Acting Director of the AUCTC, Mr Idriss Lallali, warned that terrorist cells with limited financial resources were exploiting affordable technologies to outpace government response mechanisms.

Lallali expressed concern that groups such as the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), Boko Haram and Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) were extending their reach beyond physical territories.

He said the groups were using social media for recruitment, mobile money and cryptocurrencies to transfer funds, and the darknet to procure weapons.

He added that terrorists were also using drones to extend their operational capabilities across borders.

According to Lallali, the greatest challenges are not merely technological sophistication but also the speed and affordability of the tools available to extremist groups.

He explained that even a small terrorist cell could reach large audiences and execute operations faster than bureaucratic security systems could respond.

Lallali said African countries had varying capacities to counter such threats, creating gaps that deliberate training and stronger coordination could help address.

He stressed that targeted capacity-building initiatives were necessary to improve technical expertise and strengthen cooperation among African member states.

Meanwhile, the Coordinator of the UFL, Amb. Fatima Abdallah-Arasahi, represented by Mr Baba Keita, reaffirmed the unit’s commitment to regional counterterrorism cooperation.

Abdallah-Arasahi said the UFL was willing to work with regional partners to weaken terrorist networks and address their exploitation of information and communication technologies.

‘The willingness to involve all our services demonstrates the interest that the UFL attaches to the selected theme,’ she said.

She said the theme addressed the growing challenge posed by terrorist groups’ exploitation of information and communication technologies and emerging technologies.

‘The UFL is ready to support all initiatives related to the concerns of its member services in the fight against terrorism and the strengthening of cooperation among regional mechanisms,’ Keita said.

The training is expected to strengthen regional expertise and cooperation in identifying and disrupting terrorists’ use of digital platforms and emerging technologies.

Rivers flooding: Residents seek lasting solutions beyond emergency relief

Rivers residents may not forget in a hurry the devastating experience of the 2026 rainy season, which brought severe flooding, destroyed property, disrupted livelihoods and claimed lives.

For many residents, the floods were not merely a seasonal inconvenience but a recurring disaster that exposed the vulnerability of communities across the state.

The scale of the challenge is reflected in the 2026 Annual Flood Outlook (AFO) released by the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA).

The outlook identified 14,118 communities across 266 Local Government Areas (LGAs) in 33 states and the Federal Capital Territory as high-risk flood zones.

Rivers was among the states identified as being at high risk.

The outlook also warned of possible flash and urban flooding in Port Harcourt, alongside coastal and riverine flooding in Rivers and other coastal states.

Against this backdrop, the forecast underscored the need for early warnings, effective drainage systems, appropriate land-use planning and coordinated preparedness measures to protect vulnerable communities.

However, residents’ accounts of the 2026 floods have renewed questions about the effectiveness of preventive measures and the difficulties communities face in recovering from recurrent disasters.

Environmental experts and observers have attributed the worsening situation to poor waste management, blocked drainage channels and violations of building and town planning regulations.

Others have raised concerns about governance and inadequate preparedness to tackle the state’s perennial flooding challenges.

Although flooding has long affected riverine and other low-lying communities in Rivers, parts of the Port Harcourt metropolis and adjoining communities also experienced severe flooding in 2026.

Consequently, several communities in Port Harcourt, Obio/Akpor, Eleme, Oyigbo and Etche LGAs were affected by rising floodwaters, according to residents’ accounts.

Homes, roads, businesses and other infrastructure were submerged, forcing some residents to abandon their properties temporarily and seek shelter in hotels, churches, other places of worship, rented apartments and Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) camps.

Against this background, residents interviewed separately by the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) in Port Harcourt recounted their experiences and expressed dissatisfaction with the recurring flooding.

They urged the authorities to address its root causes rather than focus mainly on relief efforts, stressing the need for preventive measures that could reduce losses during subsequent rainy seasons.

Their concerns echo those expressed in a July report by a media outlet, which documented residents’ calls for the clearance of blocked waterways and the provision of functional drainage systems.

The report noted that relief materials alone could not resolve recurrent flooding.

For Mr Philip Chiso, a resident of Igwuruta in Obio/Akpor LGA, the immediate challenge was meeting his family’s basic needs.

Chiso said his family and other displaced residents were struggling with hunger and shortages of essential supplies following the flooding.

He added that the flood had destroyed his property, leaving him uncertain about how to rebuild his life after the waters receded.

Similarly, Mr Koko Igwe, a resident of Obeama in Oyigbo LGA, said the disaster had exposed the difficulties facing households seeking safe and affordable housing.

Igwe said he had acquired land in an area he later realised was prone to flooding, despite warnings from some people.

He explained that he and others had proceeded to build on the land during the dry season.

According to him, the area had remained submerged under floodwaters for more than two weeks.

‘We paid between N1.5 million and N3 million to acquire a plot located on a slope near Imo River,’ he said.

Igwe said he could not afford the N11.5 million required to purchase a plot on higher ground in the same area.

‘We thought it was an opportunity to escape the stress of rising housing rent, but unfortunately, we found ourselves building on a flood plain,’ he said.

He appealed to the government to provide financial support and assist his family in relocating to a safer area.

His experience reflects the difficult choices facing households seeking affordable housing.

It also underscores the need for reliable information about flood risks, appropriate land-use planning and the enforcement of building regulations.

Beyond the destruction of homes, flooding has also affected farmers whose livelihoods depend on land, livestock and fish stocks.

Mrs Funmilayo Kunle, a pig and fish farmer in Ogale, Eleme LGA, said the flood had swept away her farm, leaving her investment with little prospect of recovery.

Kunle said she had invested all her resources in the business and was now left with virtually nothing.

Such losses can leave small-scale farmers without the capital needed to resume production, thereby affecting household incomes and their ability to meet other financial obligations.

The human cost, however, extends beyond property damage and economic losses.

Mr Sunday Uzo, a trader in Oyigbo, said the flooding had left a deep scar on the community following the death of an 18-year-old boy who drowned in the School Road area.

His account highlights the safety risks posed by floodwaters, especially where residents must navigate inundated roads and neighbourhoods.

While these accounts illustrate the immediate consequences of flooding, environmental experts have also raised concerns about factors that could worsen the situation in urban areas.

Prof. Olu Wai-Ogosu, a geoscience and space technologist, attributed part of the problem to indiscriminate waste disposal, which he said contributed to blocked drainage channels and canals in Port Harcourt and neighbouring LGAs.

He called for behavioural change and greater environmental awareness among residents.

‘Inadequate waste receptacles in densely populated areas have greatly contributed to flooding in non-prone flood areas,’ he said.

Wai-Ogosu urged the state government and relevant stakeholders to ensure effective drainage management.

Similarly, Mr Samuel Abu, an environmental activist, called for stronger regulation of real estate development to prevent construction in natural waterways and floodplains.

According to him, unregulated construction could obstruct natural drainage routes and worsen the effects of flooding.

These concerns have also featured in government inspections.

In October, the Rivers Government said an inspection team had identified attempts to reclaim part of a canal near Lord Emmanuel Close, while residents of Jerusalem Estate reported that improperly channelled drainage was contributing to flooding in their community.

The Deputy Governor, Prof. Ngozi Odu, said the findings would be presented to Gov. Siminalayi Fubara for further action, including engagement with relevant ministries, estate residents and community leaders.

The findings point to the need for closer monitoring of development activities and better coordination among environmental authorities, urban planners, developers and communities.

Nevertheless, responsibility for reducing flood risks cannot rest solely on residents.

Authorities also need to ensure that drainage infrastructure is maintained, development regulations are enforced and vulnerable communities receive timely warnings about impending floods.

In this regard, NIHSA’s 2026 outlook provides a framework for identifying vulnerable communities and guiding early action.

Its warnings about urban flooding in Port Harcourt and coastal and riverine flooding in Rivers are relevant to the experiences reported by residents.

Comparing the outlook’s specific community-level forecasts with the locations affected during the rainy season would help establish whether the flooding occurred in predicted high-risk areas and identify possible gaps in preparedness.

Meanwhile, the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) launched its 2026 flood disaster preparedness and response campaign in Rivers in May, focusing on early and coordinated action to protect lives and livelihoods.

The campaign sought to promote proactive disaster management, strengthen institutional coordination and clarify responsibilities among stakeholders.

Representing NEMA’s Director-General, Mrs Zubaida Umar, at the campaign, the agency’s Acting Director of the South-South Zonal Directorate, Mr Eric Ebhodaghe, said the initiative was designed to promote preparedness and improve disaster risk governance.

‘Each year, lives are lost, livelihoods are disrupted, and public and private infrastructure worth billions of naira are damaged,’ Umar said.

She added that communities also bore the burden of injuries, displacement and the loss of life savings arising from flooding and its secondary effects.

Although the campaign provides a framework for preparedness, the experiences of affected residents raise questions about how early warnings, preventive measures and emergency plans translate into protection at the community level.

Alongside these preparedness efforts, the Rivers Government intensified relief interventions in October, distributing food and non-food items to affected communities and announcing financial assistance for some victims.

In a report published on Oct. 3, the state government said identified flood victims were to receive N200,000 each. It also announced plans to redirect floodwaters into designated canals after the waters receded.

Odu said the government was also integrating flood victims into the Rivers State Health Insurance Scheme to improve access to medical care.

While these interventions could help households meet their immediate needs, residents’ accounts show that recovery remains difficult when homes, farms and businesses have been destroyed.

At the federal level, NEMA also deployed a technical team to assess affected communities and coordinate support.

The team inspected affected locations and delivered relief items to the Rivers Government on Oct. 2, according to an online report.

The agency said it was working with relevant stakeholders to address flooding and assist affected residents.

Taken together, the interventions highlight the importance of emergency assistance while raising a broader question about how to reduce dependence on repeated relief operations after major flood events.

For communities already affected, immediate priorities remain access to food, safe accommodation, healthcare and support to rebuild livelihoods.

For the authorities, however, the challenge extends beyond responding to the latest disaster.

It includes improving drainage systems, enforcing land-use regulations, preventing encroachment on natural waterways, strengthening early-warning systems and ensuring that residents in vulnerable areas receive timely information.

Stakeholders insist that achieving these objectives will require coordination among federal and state agencies, local governments, environmental authorities, developers and community leaders.

They also stress the need for residents to comply with environmental regulations and heed official warnings.

Overall, unless preventive measures become more effective, Rivers residents risk facing the same cycle of damaged homes, lost livelihoods and costly recovery whenever floods return.

Academic Credentials Scandal: Arise News shuts door on Anthony Kila

Arise News has announced that political analyst Anthony Kila will no longer appear on its television platform following allegations that he falsified his academic credentials.

The decision came after an investigative report by Premium Times raised questions about Kila’s educational qualifications, prompting Arise News to seek his response to the allegations.

In a disclaimer issued by its Editorial Board, the television network said it contacted Kila on October 3, 2026, to give him an opportunity to respond to the claims.

According to the statement, Kila requested additional time to address the allegations but had yet to respond 10 days after being contacted.

‘Following claims that Anthony Kila falsified his entire academic credentials, we contacted Mr Kila on 03 October, 2026 with the allegations. He asked for more time to respond to the claims. He has not responded 10 days after,’ the statement said.

Arise News said the allegations had become more serious since it first contacted the analyst, adding that the circumstances had made his continued participation on the network untenable.

‘In the circumstances we find that his contributions to The Arise News Channel is no longer tenable,’ the statement added.

The network also sought to clarify that it had no prior knowledge of the allegations when Kila appeared on its programmes as a freelance political analyst.

‘Arise News was unaware of these allegations at the time Anthony Kila appeared on our platform,’ the disclaimer stated.

Emphasising its commitment to professional standards, the television station said it took issues relating to credibility and integrity seriously and had considered the findings of the Premium Times investigation in reaching its decision.

‘As we take matters of credibility and integrity extremely seriously, we have noted the findings of the Premium Times investigation,’ it said.

Arise News subsequently announced that Kila’s appearances on its platforms had been terminated with immediate effect, ruling out any possibility of his return.

‘Mr Kila will not be appearing on our networks at anytime now or the future,’ the statement declared.

The disclaimer was signed by the Editorial Board of Arise News.

The allegations against Kila and Arise News’ decision have placed his academic credentials under scrutiny. However, the network’s statement did not provide further details of the specific qualifications allegedly falsified.

Former Imo gov Rochas Okorocha arrested

Former Imo State Governor Rochas Okorocha has been arrested by the Nigeria Police Force in Abuja over allegations of criminal conspiracy, forgery and impersonation.

The former governor was arrested on Monday night following his alleged failure to honour previous police invitations in connection with an ongoing investigation.

Imo State Police Public Relations Officer, CSP Aniete Iniedu, confirmed the arrest to Channels Television on Tuesday, October 13.

According to the police spokesperson, Okorocha was released on bail after undergoing approximately one hour of interrogation.

He was subsequently directed to return to the Force Headquarters on Tuesday for further questioning as investigations continue.

Police sources disclosed that the former governor was initially invited for questioning on September 2, but the appointment was rescheduled to September 8 at the request of his lawyers.

However, Rochas Okorocha reportedly failed to honour the rescheduled invitation, prompting police action.

The police have yet to disclose further details of the allegations against the former governor.

UBA mourns victims of NAF 931 crash, visits Air Force headquarters

United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc has extended its condolences to the Nigerian Air Force (NAF) and the families of those who died in the NAF 931 aircraft crash.

The bank’s Group Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Oliver Alawuba, conveyed the condolences during a visit to the Chief of the Air Staff, Air Marshal Sunday Kelvin Aneke, at the Nigerian Air Force Headquarters in Abuja.

During the visit, Alawuba expressed the bank’s sympathy with the Air Force and the bereaved families over the loss of lives in the crash.

He also signed the condolence register in honour of the victims.

The visit underscores UBA’s solidarity with the Nigerian Air Force and those affected by the tragedy.

UBA, which operates across 20 African countries as well as the United Kingdom, the United States, France and the United Arab Emirates, provides retail, commercial and institutional banking services to customers globally. The financial institution has more than 25,000 employees across its group and serves over 45 million customers worldwide.

Lagos Fire: Two men rescued as blaze destroys bungalow

Two adult men have been rescued from a fire that engulfed a residential building on Onitire Road, Itire, Lagos, with one of them sustaining burn injuries.

The Lagos State Fire and Rescue Service said the incident occurred at 43 Onitire Road, near Smith Bus Stop, adding that the injured victim was taken to Gbagada General Hospital for treatment.

In a statement issued on Tuesday, the agency’s Senior Public Affairs Officer, Fadairo Maria, said the emergency call was received at about 9.10 p.m., while firefighters arrived at the scene at 9.35 p.m. and immediately began firefighting and rescue operations.

According to the statement, the fire affected an eight-room bungalow and spread to a three-bedroom flat on the upper floor of an adjoining two-storey residential building.

The bungalow and its contents were severely damaged, while the affected section of the adjoining building and its contents sustained minor damage.

The agency said firefighters rescued a 75-year-old man from the bungalow. The elderly man, who uses a wheelchair, was rescued alongside a 42-year-old man who sustained burns while attempting to save him.

The injured man was subsequently evacuated to Gbagada General Hospital by officials of the Lagos State Ambulance Service (LASAMBUS) for medical attention.

Firefighters from the Isolo, Sari and Bolade stations of the Lagos State Fire and Rescue Service participated in the operation, with support from the Federal Fire Service, Ojuelegba.

Other agencies at the scene included the Lagos Response Unit, LASAMBUS, the Nigeria Police Force from Itire Division and the Lagos State Traffic Management Authority.

The fire service said the blaze was eventually brought under control.

It added that preliminary assessment suggested that negligence resulting in an electrical surge might have triggered the incident, although the exact cause was yet to be determined.

The Controller-General of the Lagos State Fire and Rescue Service, Margaret Abimbola Adeseye, urged residents to maintain their electrical installations properly, avoid overloading sockets and engage qualified electricians to inspect and repair faulty electrical systems.

She also advised residents to switch off electrical appliances when not in use and promptly report fire emergencies.

The agency said residents could contact emergency services through the toll-free numbers 112 and 767 or the Lagos Fire hotline, 08033235891.

FG has returned fuel subsidy, won’t admit it – Kenneth Okonkwo

Lawyer and actor Kenneth Okonkwo has accused Taiwo Oyedele of misleading Nigerians over the Federal Government’s 30-day petrol discount, alleging that the Tinubu administration has effectively reintroduced fuel subsidy while refusing to acknowledge it.

Okonkwo made the allegation during an appearance on Channels Television, where he challenged the government’s insistence that the temporary reduction in petrol prices was a discount rather than a subsidy.

‘Sorry to say this, Taiwo Oyedele lied when he said it was not subsidy. It was subsidy,’ Okonkwo declared.

He argued that the government’s decision to reduce petrol prices from about N1,500 to N1,350 per litre amounted to a subsidy because the intervention was intended to ease the financial burden on Nigerians.

‘What were they trying to do? They were trying to reduce cost. They acknowledged by themselves that the cost was becoming unbearable for the people and they have to intervene to give relief for the people,’ he said.

Okonkwo maintained that the measure met the definition of a subsidy, describing it as financial assistance intended to reduce costs or achieve economic and social objectives.

‘And they say it’s not subsidy. Then the whole idea of subsidy has to be redefined. Because what he did is exactly the definition of subsidy,’ he added.

The lawyer alleged that the administration was reluctant to describe the intervention as a subsidy because it had repeatedly ruled out restoring the petrol subsidy.

He also referred to former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar’s position that the government should introduce measures to ease the hardship facing Nigerians, regardless of what such measures were called.

Mocking the government’s handling of the policy, Okonkwo compared its approach to a student copying another person’s answers during an examination.

‘In the examination hall, when you are copying the answer of your fellow classmate, you will always copy even the words you should not copy,’ he said.

Kenneth Okonkwo’s allegation adds to the controversy over the government’s temporary petrol price intervention and whether it represents a return to fuel subsidy or a separate relief measure.

The Federal Government has maintained that the discount does not amount to the return of fuel subsidy, a position Okonkwo disputes.

Gov. Makinde appoints new Chief Of Staff

Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde, has appointed Akinwale Akinwole, popularly known as Wolekanle, as his new Chief of Staff following the resignation of Segun Ogunwuyi.

The appointment, which takes immediate effect, comes after Ogunwuyi stepped down from the position on Monday, October 12, 2026.

Makinde also approved the appointment of Aderonke Adedayo as Director-General of the Oyo State Due Process Office.

The appointments were announced in separate letters signed by the Secretary to the State Government, Professor Musibau Babatunde.

Akinwole, a grassroots politician, previously served as Chairman of the Oyo State Local Government Service Commission.

Adedayo, who currently serves as Special Adviser on General Intervention and Donor Agencies, will retain her existing position while taking on her new responsibilities.

Governor Makinde congratulated the two appointees and urged them to discharge their duties with loyalty, commitment and dedication to the service of Oyo State.

Osun election: Why opposition may be misreading Adeleke’s victory ahead of 2027

The outcome of the August 2026 Osun governorship election has become a talking point among opposition politicians, with some presenting it as evidence that massive voter turnout can overcome federal influence and defeat the All Progressives Congress (APC). However, the argument that replicating Osun’s turnout alone could determine the outcome of the 2027 presidential election overlooks several factors, including incumbency, opposition fragmentation, regional voting patterns and the ability of candidates to mobilise their supporters.

The debate came up during a socio-political discussion organised by Family Worship Centre to mark Nigeria’s 66th Independence anniversary. During the panel discussion, the senior pastor, Pastor Sarah Omakwu, asked a question that speaks directly to the economic concerns of millions of Nigerians: ‘What can we do to bring petrol prices down?’

One of the speakers, a journalist whose name I could not immediately recall, responded by drawing attention to the Osun governorship election.

‘People of Osun State taught us a lesson. On election day, the Osun people trooped out in their thousands. In history, they have the highest voter turnout… they voted, they resisted federal might. If you turnout on January 15th, game is over. Osun is your reference point,’ he said.

At least in the clip I watched, none of the panellists directly explained how to bring petrol prices down.

But beyond that disconnect, the journalist’s conclusion deserves closer examination. I have heard opposition politicians make similar arguments, suggesting that Osun offers a model for defeating President Bola Tinubu in 2027.

Incumbency matters

The first point to understand is that Governor Ademola Adeleke contested the August 15, 2026 election as an incumbent. He had the advantages associated with occupying the office, including visibility, an established political network and the opportunity to campaign on his administration’s record.

Adeleke, who contested under the Accord Party, secured 511,067 votes, defeating the APC candidate, Bola Oyebamiji, who polled 444,815 votes. The African Democratic Congress (ADC) candidate, Najeem Salaam, received 17,180 votes.

The outcome does not automatically establish that the opposition has discovered a formula for defeating the APC nationally. The incumbent in Osun was the candidate who won re-election. The election demonstrated that an incumbent can retain office despite a strong challenge, not that the same strategy would necessarily unseat an incumbent president.

A governorship election also differs from a presidential contest in its political geography. A candidate can build a winning coalition within one state, but a presidential candidate must secure broad national support and satisfy the constitutional requirement of geographical spread.

Osun should therefore be studied in the context of its political history, candidates’ support bases, campaign organisation and voting patterns across local government areas.

Did the ADC help Adeleke?

Another issue complicating the opposition’s interpretation is the disagreement over whether the ADC worked with Adeleke’s campaign.

Mallam Bolaji Abdullahi, the ADC’s national publicity secretary, said the party collaborated with Accord to prevent the APC from winning. However, Adeleke, through his spokesperson, Olawale Rasheed, denied having an electoral deal with the ADC and said the party was not part of the coalition supporting his campaign.

The disagreement matters because the opposition cannot confidently attribute Adeleke’s victory to an alliance without establishing how that alliance operated and how much it contributed to the result.

The ADC’s 17,180 votes were relatively small compared with Adeleke’s 511,067. But the figures alone do not establish whether ADC supporters transferred their votes to Accord, stayed away or supported other candidates.

Was it really federal might?

The claim that Osun voters resisted ‘federal might’ also requires historical context.

Opposition supporters have pointed to the presence of APC governors during the campaign and the controversy involving the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) as evidence of pressure on Adeleke.

However, political parties routinely deploy governors and other influential figures to support candidates, particularly during off-cycle elections. Their presence does not, by itself, establish improper federal interference.

The relevant questions are whether public institutions were used improperly, whether voters were intimidated, whether electoral officials acted independently and whether such conduct affected the outcome.

The 2026 election should therefore be assessed against that history rather than presented as the first occasion on which Osun voters challenged the interests of a governing party.

Claims of federal interference require evidence beyond the fact that the APC lost.

Economic hardship does not automatically determine elections

This brings me back to Pastor Omakwu’s question about reducing petrol prices.

Fuel prices affect transportation, food distribution, electricity generation and business operating costs. Nigerians experiencing higher living costs have legitimate reasons to assess the government’s economic performance.

The opposition’s decision to make economic hardship central to its criticism of Tinubu is understandable. Atiku Abubakar’s advocacy for a return to petrol subsidy has also brought the debate over the government’s economic policies into focus.

However, there is a difference between economic conditions influencing voters and those conditions automatically determining an election.

In my 2020 research paper, The Factors Determining Voter Turnouts in Presidential Elections in Nigeria: Multivariate Correlation Analysis of the 2019 Presidential Election, I examined the relationship between electoral participation, socioeconomic conditions, electoral violence and candidates’ popularity.

The study offers a useful caution against assuming that economic dissatisfaction automatically translates into a particular electoral outcome. A voter may be unhappy with petrol prices and still support an incumbent because of party loyalty, regional affiliations or dissatisfaction with the opposition.

Economic hardship can influence voter preferences, but its electoral effect depends on how voters interpret the government’s performance and whether they believe an alternative can improve their circumstances.

Turnout matters, but whose votes are being mobilised?

The journalist’s central argument was that voters should turn out in large numbers. On that point, there is little to dispute. High participation strengthens democratic legitimacy and gives more citizens a voice.

But turnout alone does not tell us which candidate benefits.

An increase in participation could favour an opposition candidate if previously disengaged voters turn out overwhelmingly to support that candidate. It could equally benefit an incumbent if the governing party is more effective at mobilising its supporters.

Nigeria’s 2023 presidential election illustrates this challenge. Tinubu received 8,794,726 votes, Atiku polled 6,984,520, Peter Obi received 6,101,533, while Rabiu Kwankwaso secured 1,496,687 votes.

The principal opposition candidates contested separately rather than rallying behind a single presidential candidate. Although it would be wrong to assume that every vote would automatically transfer under a different arrangement, the results demonstrate the importance of opposition coordination.

This is where the Osun analogy becomes limited. A state-level contest involving a sitting governor is not equivalent to a presidential election involving competing political bases across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones.

Nigeria needs more than an Osun template

The most important question for 2027 is whether the opposition can overcome its fragmentation. It must resolve disagreements over leadership, candidate selection and campaign coordination before the election.

If opposition parties fail to develop a coherent strategy, increased turnout may not produce the outcome they expect. Economic dissatisfaction alone cannot guarantee electoral success, just as incumbency does not guarantee victory.

Osun offers useful lessons about voter participation and political mobilisation, but it is not a substitute for analysing the dynamics of a national election.