Category: Sunday Standard

Botswana is starring down a massive economic hit as soaring global fuel prices threaten to burn a P8.5 billion hole in the country’s finances.

A fresh warning from Econsult Botswana reveals that if international fuel prices jump by 50% and stay there for a year, Botswana could be forced to cough up an extra P8.5 billion just to keep the lights on and vehicles on the road. That is a staggering 3% of the entire economy wiped out by fuel costs alone.

The latest quarterly review by Econsult Botswana underscores the scale of exposure. ‘In Botswana’s case, fuel represents the largest single category of imports reported by Statistics Botswana, with total fuel imports valued at P16.9 billion in 2025, or around 6% of GDP. If global fuel prices rise by 50% and this is maintained for a full year, the cost to Botswana would be huge, around P8.5 billion, or some 3% of GDP,’ the report notes.

If the shock hits, ordinary Batswana will feel it immediately. Transport costs could surge, food prices could climb, and daily life could become far more expensive. From combi fares to supermarket shelves, nothing will be spared.

As a landlocked economy with no domestic refining capacity, Botswana is acutely vulnerable to supply disruptions and price swings. The report warns that ‘fuel prices will feed through to inflation, reduced real incomes and a likely growth slowdown,’ a transmission mechanism that has repeatedly strained consumers and fiscal planning.

Even before the dreaded 50% jump in fuel prices, the country is already suffering the ravages of the global fuel crisis.

The Bank of Botswana hiked its monetary policy rate by 200 basis points on Thursday, saying inflation was expected to breach its target band mainly due to fuel price hikes linked to the Iran war. The central bank raised the rate to 5.5% from 3.5%.

Inflation is projected to breach the bank’s preferred 3%-6% target band in the second quarter of this year and average 8.7% in 2026 before easing to 5.6% in 2027, Bank Governor Lesego Moseki told a press conference.

Botswana’s vulnerability to global fuel shocks is prompting renewed focus on electrification of transport as both an economic buffer and a climate-aligned policy shift. Electric vehicles (EVs), still nascent in Botswana’s market, offer a pathway to decouple mobility from imported petroleum. ‘Botswana needs to reduce its dependence on imported fuels, in part by developing an electric mobility strategy that result in reduced usage of petrol and diesel,’ states the Econsult report.

Reduced fuel imports would ease pressure on foreign reserves while insulating the economy from global oil shocks.

Globally, investment is accelerating into ‘energy industries, electric vehicle manufacturing and other industries,’ the report observes, signalling a broader structural transition that Botswana risks missing if it remains anchored to fossil fuel imports.

For policymakers, the challenge lies in expanding grid capacity, incentivising EV adoption and building charging networks. Fuel price shocks have already demonstrated their reach across the economy, from transport and logistics to food prices. With fuel embedded in the consumer price index, even modest increases ripple widely. ‘The impact will be largest on fuel importing countries such as Botswana,’ the report states, reinforcing the asymmetry faced by economies without domestic energy buffers.

Transitioning to EVs would not eliminate all vulnerabilities, particularly given electricity generation constraints and reliance on imported power at times. But it would diversify the energy mix and gradually reduce one of the country’s largest import bills. ‘Botswana needs to develop an EV strategy, particularly the provision of charging infrastructure. The country

also needs a proper urban public transport strategy, based around EVs,’ states the report.

The shift also aligns with regional and global trends as governments tighten emissions standards and automakers pivot production lines toward electric fleets.

Amnesty International has raised concerns over Botswana’s human rights record in its latest global assessment, citing a public health crisis, shrinking civic freedoms and persistent gender-based violence as key issues in 2025.

In its latest report titled The State of the World’s Human Rights, the organization paints a troubling picture of a country grappling with systemic challenges despite a historic political transition following the 2024 general elections.

Botswana ushered in a new era when the Umbrella for Democratic Change, led by President Duma Boko, ended decades of rule by the Botswana Democratic Party. However, Amnesty International notes that the political shift has yet to translate into tangible human rights improvements.

At the centre of the report is a severe public health emergency declared in August 2025 after the collapse of the country’s medical supply chain. Public hospitals and clinics were left without essential medicines, including drugs for cancer, diabetes and tuberculosis. The crisis, attributed to government arrears owed to private suppliers and economic strain linked to a downturn in the diamond sector, forced authorities to postpone non-urgent surgeries.

Although government injected P250 million in emergency funding and deployed the military to assist with distribution, shortages reportedly persisted, exposing deep vulnerabilities in Botswana’s healthcare system.

The report also criticises new legislation, the Digital Services Act 2025 and the Cybersecurity Act 2025 warning that both laws risk expanding state control over online activity without adequate safeguards for privacy and freedom of expression. Amnesty argues that these laws could be used to stifle dissent in an increasingly digital public sphere.

Concerns over press freedom were echoed by Reporters Without Borders, which ranked Botswana 81st out of 180 countries in its 2025 World Press Freedom Index. While noting a decline in outright attacks on journalists, the watchdog said structural barriers continue to hinder media operations.

Freedom of assembly also came under scrutiny. Police in Gaborone blocked planned student protests in August, preventing members of the Student Power Botswana movement from delivering a petition demanding increased allowances. Authorities cited scheduling conflicts, but Amnesty described the actions as arbitrary restrictions on peaceful protest.

Gender-based violence remains a major concern, with UN agencies reportedly declaring it a national emergency. Amnesty highlighted the continued absence of legislation criminalising marital rape, leaving significant gaps in legal protection for women and girls.

On the issue of capital punishment, Botswana continues to retain the death penalty, although no executions have been carried out for four consecutive years. Human rights groups have renewed calls for an official moratorium as a step toward abolition.

The report further noted the relocation of rejected asylum seekers from a detention facility in Francistown to the Dukwi Refugee Camp, where access to employment and essential services remains limited.

Amnesty International says that while Botswana has long been viewed as a stable democracy, the latest findings highlight mounting pressure on fundamental rights, calling on authorities to urgently address systemic weaknesses and uphold constitutional freedoms.

Botswana’s public debt trajectory is edging toward a critical threshold, with analysts warning that persistent fiscal deficits and rising borrowing costs could push the country’s debt load beyond 100% of GDP sooner than expected.

Econsult’s latest quarterly review highlights a widening disconnect between the government’s stated commitment to fiscal discipline and the reality of continued high spending, weak revenues and increasingly expensive financing, a mix that is accelerating debt accumulation.

At the centre of the concern is a structurally imbalanced budget. The 2026/27 fiscal plan projects expenditure at around 35% of GDP, with revenues covering only about 75% of that spending, leaving a large and sustained financing gap. The report is blunt about the implications. ‘The budget as presented envisages a continued high level of spending… and a huge budget deficit,’ adding that key assumptions may understate the true scale of the imbalance due to ‘implausibly low budget figures for debt interest payments.’

While Botswana’s debt has historically been moderate, the current trajectory suggests a sharp and potentially destabilising shift. With deficits running near 9% of GDP and no immediate correction in sight, debt is set to rise rapidly with the 100% threshold increasingly within reach.

‘Nevertheless the trend is unsustainable, and it would not take long for debt to reach crisis levels at this rate of increase. With continued budget deficits of this magnitude, after a decade debt would exceed 100% of GDP – perhaps even sooner if government’s borrowing costs continue to rise,’ states the Review.

Econsult warns that the central challenge is to halt, or at least significantly slow, the rise in public debt. ‘This can only be done by reducing the budget deficit. With little expectation of a significant increase in revenues, this can only be achieved by a reduction in spending,’ states the report.

Yet despite repeated commitments, there is little evidence of restraint as spending is projected to remain at about 35% of GDP in 2026/27, virtually unchanged from the previous year. The review notes that this raises fundamental questions about sustainability as the government prepares to lift statutory borrowing limits.

The government itself has acknowledged the scale of the problem. The finance ministry described the situation as a ‘structurally overstretched fiscal framework,’ where ‘expenditure commitments persistently exceed available and realistic realisable resources.’ Such a mismatch, the minister warned, ‘is fiscally unsustainable over the medium to long term and underscores the urgent need for more credible, disciplined and prudent fiscal planning.’

Yet despite this recognition, the review finds little evidence of immediate corrective action. Planned fiscal consolidation is pushed into the outer years of the Medium-Term Fiscal Framework, a pattern that has repeatedly failed in the past. ‘Commitments made for 2-3 years into the future are never realised, but are perpetually postponed,’ the report notes.

The convergence of large deficits, rising yields and slowing growth is narrowing the window for policy adjustment. Without a credible shift toward fiscal consolidation, either through spending restraint or stronger revenue mobilisation, Botswana risks breaching the 100% debt-to-GDP threshold and entering a far more constrained fiscal environment.

A forensic audit by R4 Forensics has uncovered a web of gross financial misconduct at the Civil Aviation Authority of Botswana (CAAB).

Preliminary findings from the audit suggest that CAAB systematically misrepresented its financial position. Government subventions were allegedly recorded as revenue, enabling the authority to declare profits that did not exist.

The practice concealed sustained losses, with investigators estimating that between P50 million and P70 million may have been lost over the past four years. The authority is now understood to be operating at a deficit, contradicting earlier financial presentations that suggested stability.

The investigation was initially triggered by CAAB’s internal audit unit, which identified irregularities in the payroll system, including payments amounting to roughly P6 million into so called ghost accounts, fictitious or inactive accounts used to divert funds. What began as a targeted probe into payroll controls was subsequently broadened after newly appointed chief executive Thuto Toise ordered that the scope be expanded to include all financial and operational areas of the authority and an independent auditor,R4 Forensics commissioned to conduct a forensic audit.

That decision appears to have exposed a far wider pattern of alleged abuse. The forensic audit details a payroll fraud scheme involving more than 50 ghost employee accounts used to siphon funds over an extended period. The findings suggest that the mechanism may not have been isolated, with claims that senior officials channeled bonus payments through proxy accounts linked to these ghost employees, potentially to avoid tax liabilities and bypass standard payroll reporting systems.

The revelations echo an earlier case involving a suspended payroll officer at CAAB, who was accused of orchestrating the diversion of more than P6 million through ghost accounts. According to media reports at the time, the officer allegedly indicated that he would not act alone and threatened to implicate members of executive management.

He was suspected internally of having close links to executive management and was believed to have facilitated the routing of bonus payments, including the so called 13th Cheque, through ghost accounts to obscure income and evade taxation. The forensic audit’s findings appear to lend weight to those earlier allegations, suggesting that the misuse of payroll systems may have been embedded at multiple levels within the organisation.

Procurement practices have also come under scrutiny. The audit, carried by Robert Masitara’s R4 Forensics, flagged repeated use of direct contractor appointments, bypassing competitive tender processes. In some cases, companies linked to individuals within CAAB were allegedly awarded contracts. Cost escalations appear significant. A refurbishment project at Maun airport, initially budgeted at P50,000, reportedly increased to P3.7 million, with no clear justification provided in the audit findings.

Revenue collection systems were found to be similarly vulnerable. Aeronautical charges collected manually at airports could not be fully accounted for. The absence of robust tracking mechanisms appears to have created opportunities for revenue diversion, further compounding the authority’s financial difficulties.

The audit also highlights alleged abuse of employee benefits and allowances. Investigators cite instances of fraudulent overtime claims as well as travel per diem payments claimed for trips that did not occur. These practices, while individually smaller in scale, contribute to what the report characterizes as a broader pattern of financial indiscipline.

Beyond financial misconduct, the findings raise operational and regulatory concerns. Critical navigational equipment has reportedly remained unserviceable for extended periods despite maintenance contracts being awarded. At Maun airport, radar systems have allegedly been non-functional since December 2025.

The audit further points to the alleged issuance of air operator certificates under irregular circumstances, a finding that could have implications for regulatory compliance within the local aviation sector.

Governance failures emerge as a central theme. According to the audit, these issues were not escalated to the previous board, with management allegedly presenting an overly favourable account of the authority’s performance.

In a related development, CAAB has placed several senior officials on administrative leave as part of ongoing internal processes linked to the investigation. Those affected include Director Human Capital and Administration Services Ontibile Radira, Director Finance and Procurement Kebagaise Segakise, Director Airport Services Isaac Mabote, Director Airport Engineering and Maintenance Christopher Diswai, as well as Manager of Projects. The authority has described the leave as administrative and precautionary, stating that it does not constitute a finding of misconduct or guilt, and that the affected individuals are restricted from performing official duties or engaging staff on work related matters unless authorised.

The preliminary findings from R4 Forensics depict an organization where financial controls, procurement discipline and operational accountability may have been systematically undermined. The scale of the alleged irregularities, spanning accounting practices, payroll systems, procurement processes and regulatory functions, points to challenges that extend beyond isolated incidents.

Construction of the 500MW solar PV plant and battery storage project in Maun has taken off, with Botswana Power Corporation (BPC) expecting the development to cut electricity costs and reduce reliance on imports.

The project, launched last week, is also expected to enhance security of supply, reduce the country’s carbon footprint and lower generation costs by displacing expensive imported power. It forms part of broader efforts to position Botswana as a net electricity exporter in the region.

The plant will be developed under an Independent Power Producer model by O-Green, a company owned by the Sultanate of Oman. During the ground-breaking ceremony, BPC and Okavango Solar, a subsidiary of O-Green, signed a 30-year power purchase agreement.

The development includes a 500MW solar PV plant and a 500MWh Battery Energy Storage System, with construction expected to be completed by the first quarter of 2029. A 2km 400kV transmission line will link the plant to the existing Mawana Substation.

BPC chief executive David Kgoboko said the project comes at a time when the utility is grappling with rising electricity costs, particularly during peak demand periods when power is imported from South Africa and Mozambique.

The battery storage system will allow energy generated during the day to be stored and used during evening and early morning peaks, easing pressure on imports and improving grid stability. The project aligns with government’s Integrated Resource Plan, which targets adding 1.3GW of renewable energy to the grid before 2030.

Botswana’s economy is set for a rebound in 2026, but the recovery may prove short-lived as global shocks weigh on momentum across Southern Africa.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects Botswana’s growth to swing from a contraction of 0.9 percent in 2025 to 4.7 percent in 2026, before slowing to 2.2 percent in 2027, reflecting a fragile recovery tied to external demand, particularly in diamonds. The outlook mirrors a broader regional pattern where gains remain vulnerable to global disruptions.

Across Sub-Saharan Africa, growth is expected to ease slightly to 4.3 percent in 2026 from 4.5 percent in 2025, as higher oil, fertilizer and shipping costs filter through economies following geopolitical tensions.

For Botswana, the challenge is familiar: dependence on a narrow export base. While improved global conditions could lift diamond sales in the near term, the IMF warns that commodity-dependent economies remain exposed to volatility and shifting demand patterns.

Elsewhere in Southern Africa, growth is subdued. Namibia is projected to hold steady at 2.4 percent in 2026, while South Africa, Botswana’s largest trading partner is expected to expand by just 1.0 percent, underscoring weak regional demand. Zimbabwe, though still growing faster at 5.0 percent, is also set to slow.

The divergence with faster-growing economies is stark. Ethiopia, for instance, is forecast to maintain growth above 9 percent, highlighting the gap between reform-driven economies and those reliant on commodities.

The IMF cautions that risks remain tilted to the downside. A prolonged global shock could raise inflation, tighten financial conditions and erode demand for exports, particularly for smaller, open economies like Botswana.

In a sporting calendar often defined by competition and trophies, an upcoming golf day in Gaborone is aiming for something far more meaningful – changing lives.

On Thursday, April 30, 2026, the fairways of Stanbic Bank Gaborone Golf Club will host the Play with Purpose – Autism Awareness Charity Golf Day. The event blends sport with advocacy, and is driven by one mother’s deeply personal journey.

Melissa Modise, a businesswoman, wife, and mother of two, is the force behind the initiative. Her inspiration comes from her six-year-old son, who was diagnosed with autism at the age of three – a moment that reshaped her family’s life.

‘What began as fear, shock, and confusion has become acceptance and determination,’ Modise shares. ‘We have been fortunate to access early intervention, therapies, and strong support. But that is not the reality for most families.’

Across Botswana, many parents raising children on the autism spectrum face are faced with a lack of adequate resources, information, or support. Early intervention, widely known to improve developmental outcomes, remains out of reach for many due to financial constraints, limited services, and a lack of awareness.

For Modise, the weight of the journey is undeniable. ‘It is mental exhaustion. It is financial strain. It is relationships tested to their core. And it’s often carried in silence, in a society that still does not fully understand autism.’

The upcoming golf day is designed to change this status quo. Play with Purpose is a call to action. It seeks to move beyond surface-level awareness toward meaningful understanding. It seeks to challenge misconceptions, break stigma, and create inclusive spaces where children on the spectrum are fully accepted.

‘We want children on the spectrum to be seen as part of everyday life, not exceptions. Inclusion is not kindness – it’s a necessity,’ Modise emphasizes.

Funds raised from the event will support Autism Botswana, a local organization dedicated to advocating for individuals on the autism spectrum and assisting their families. Autism Botswana works to raise awareness, provide resources, and push for a more inclusive society. And like many in the sector, it faces growing demand with limited resources.

The event also carries an educational message. Modise highlights that autism is not one-size-fits-all. Each child is unique, and communication is not always verbal. Understanding and meeting children where they are, she says, is key to true inclusion.

As golfers prepare to tee off, the message behind the event remains clear: this is about more than sport.

‘This is bigger than a golf day. ‘It is about changing mindsets, showing up for families who feel unseen, and giving children the chance not just to exist, but to thrive,’ she says.

Businesses and individuals are being called upon to support the initiative through sponsorships and participation, helping turn a day on the course into lasting impact beyond it.

Sometimes the most important victories aren’t recorded on a scorecard – but in the lives changed along the way.

Parliament has turned up the heat on government to overhaul Botswana’s veterinary disease control framework, calling for an urgent review and re-demarcation of livestock zones as pressure mounts from recurring outbreaks of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD).

The motion, tabled by Boteti West legislator Sam Digwa, targets sprawling zones such as 11 and 3B, arguing that their size undermines effective disease management. Lawmakers say the current structure makes it difficult to isolate outbreaks, deploy vaccines efficiently and enforce quarantine measures with precision. The motion also calls for urgent rehabilitation of veterinary cordon fences.

The push comes as government battles a widening outbreak first detected in Goodhope District. Acting Minister Edwin Dikoloti recently told a kgotla meeting that the disease has spread beyond initial containment areas, with confirmed cases reported at multiple crushes and a commercial feedlot. Authorities have since declared new infected zones under emergency regulations.

Officials concede the situation is fluid. Veterinary authorities have long argued that existing zones combine areas with varying risk levels, complicating surveillance and response efforts. The renewed outbreak has exposed these weaknesses, with cross-border transmission and internal movement controls proving difficult to manage.

Regionally, pressure is intensifying. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) has recorded a surge in cases, pushing vaccine demand beyond supply. Botswana’s own production capacity is under strain, even as authorities race to restore disease-free status by 2028.

For farmers, the fallout is immediate. Movement restrictions are choking cattle sales and exports, while compliance costs rise. With beef exports tied to strict health standards, delays in reforming the zoning system risk deepening losses in one of Botswana’s most important agricultural sectors.

Choppies Enterprises Limited has opted for a modest shareholder payout, declaring a dividend of 1.0 thebe per share for the six months ended December 31, 2025, underscoring the retailer’s cautious stance amid margin pressure.

The Botswana Stock Exchange and Johannesburg-listed grocer said the dividend will be paid on April 29, with eligibility already locked in after the stock went ex-dividend on April 15. The register closed on April 17.

For local investors, the payout narrows further after tax. A 10 percent withholding tax reduces the dividend to 0.9 thebe per share, trimming already thin returns. South African shareholders will receive the dividend in Rands at a conversion rate of P1 to R1.155, equivalent to 1.155 cents per share before tax. Withholding tax of up to 20 percent may apply, subject to double taxation agreements.

Choppies said the distribution will be paid out of income reserves and treated as a foreign dividend for South African investors. The payout comes against a mixed set of results. Retail sales rose 8.9 percent to P5.09 billion, supported by the addition of 25 stores and selective price increases. However, earnings moved in the opposite direction.

Profit after tax from continuing operations fell 33 percent to P77 million, while operating profit declined 20 percent to P152 million, as cost pressures intensified. The company cited inflation, currency devaluation and the implementation of a living wage in Botswana as key drivers of margin erosion. A weaker pula alone added P64 million in costs, much of which could not be passed on to consumers.

With household spending under strain and government austerity weighing on demand, the results reflect a retailer expanding footprint even as profitability tightens.

Government has reiterated its difficulties in settling outstanding payments to oil companies, as rising global crude oil prices continue to strain the National Petroleum Fund (NPF). Speaking in Parliament, Minister of Minerals and Energy Bogolo Kenewendo said the fund has disbursed over P262 million in fuel subsidies over the past three months but still owes oil companies about P350.6 million in outstanding claims.

She said the NPF is struggling to fully cushion pump prices amid persistent increases in global oil prices, largely driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While the fund continues to support consumers, the rising cost of fuel imports has limited its ability to stabilise prices and meet supply obligations.

Kenewendo noted that although there has only been one upward fuel price adjustment in the 2025/26 financial year, in September 2025, underlying pressures have remained. Between June and September, import costs exceeded regulated prices, resulting in a cumulative debt of over P544 million due to delayed price adjustments.

The NPF has been absorbing these price differences to shield consumers, accumulating more than P150 million in recent months to offset rising costs. However, the pressure has intensified as global oil prices remain elevated.

The minister said recent pump price adjustments made at the end of March 2026 will continue to be supported by the fund, despite ongoing cost pressures. Fuel has been imported at higher prices while being sold below cost for several weeks, widening the gap between actual and regulated prices.

For March alone, under-recoveries are estimated at P714 million, reflecting the scale of the subsidy burden. The growing debt highlights the challenge facing government in balancing fuel subsidies with volatile global oil markets, while maintaining energy security and protecting consumers.