Gold sinks below $4,000 as traders eye Fed rates

Gold has entered bear market territory, sliding below US$4,000 an ounce for the first time since November 2025 as rising interest rate expectations and a strengthening dollar weigh heavily on bullion, though local traders argue the dip may not last long.

Siriluck Pakotiprapha, vice-president of research at Hua Seng Heng Futures, said a decline below $4,000 has significant implications for gold, which has tripled in price over the past three years from about $1,800 an ounce in 2023.

The recent pullback, driven by a stronger US dollar, rising real yields and hawkish Federal Reserve signals, has resulted in gold prices tumbling roughly 28-30% from an all-time high of nearly $5,600 per ounce in January this year.

Spot gold was down 0.4% to $3,974.89 per ounce yesterday after hitting its lowest level since Nov 20 on Wednesday.

Traders expect three Fed rate hikes this year and are pricing in a 67% chance of a September increase, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

The US dollar advanced for a third straight session on Wednesday to hit a 13-month high, making gold more expensive for buyers holding other currencies.

“The market is worried about Fed chair Kevin Warsh’s statement earlier this month about sticky inflation in the US, which has remained above the central bank’s 2% target since April 2021,” Ms Siriluck said.

If gold cannot bounce back to a key support level of $4,500, she said there is a possibility the price could fall further to $3,800, which would be roughly 61,000 baht per baht-weight of domestic gold bar.

Hua Seng Heng, Thailand’s largest gold trader, predicts the next support level for the precious metal at $3,500-3,600 an ounce, or 58,000-59,000 baht per baht-weight of domestic gold bar.

Several major banks have trimmed forecasts. Goldman Sachs reduced its year-end target by $500 to $4,900 an ounce, while Deutsche Bank cut its fourth-quarter estimate by 17%. Outflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have removed a traditional support for prices.

However, Ms Siriluck said the price contraction may not last long, as oil prices have declined significantly, easing inflation in many economies, particularly the US.

“Once inflationary pressure eases, the Fed might adopt a less hawkish stance,” she noted.

Gold prices should bottom out at around $3,500-3,600 an ounce by the fourth quarter, said Ms Siriluck, which is traditionally the peak season for gold buying.

Fundamental support for gold remains, particularly central bank buying and the de-dollarisation trend. Imports from China, the world’s largest gold consumer, remain solid, rising 78% year-on-year to 692 tonnes in the first five months of 2026.

Tipa Nawawattanasub, chief executive of YLG Bullion and Futures, said structural drivers such as persistently high public debt across major economies and rising digital gold demand, including tokenised gold and reserve-like digital assets, underpin support for gold, despite near-term risks from energy-driven inflation and ETF outflows.

Bond market shrinks as investors mull quality

Thailand’s corporate bond market contracted during the first five months of 2026 as investors became increasingly selective amid concerns over credit quality, higher funding costs and a fragile economic outlook.

According to Kasikorn Research Center (K-Research), the value of long-term corporate bond issuance totalled 337 billion baht between January and May 2026, down 3.7% year-on-year.

The decline reflects growing investor caution following several high-profile bond defaults in recent years, as well as continued uncertainty surrounding geopolitical developments, Thailand’s subdued economic growth, and elevated bond market yields, said the think tank.

The slowdown has prompted companies to adopt a more conservative approach to fundraising. New issuance has been concentrated in investment-grade bonds, defined as securities rated BBB- or higher, which accounted for roughly 95% of total issuance or 321 billion baht.

Despite the weak start, K-Research expects Thailand’s corporate bond issuance in 2026 to reach 850-890 billion baht, on par with last year and close to the forecast of 900 billion by the Thai Bond Market Association.

“Corporate borrowers are expected to remain active in refinancing maturing debt and securing working capital, although volatility in bond yields will continue to influence issuance decisions,” noted K-Research.

DEFAULT RISK CONCERNS

Market data suggests investor concerns remain concentrated in the high-risk segment rather than spreading across the entire bond market. Demand for investment-grade bonds remains strong, with subscription success rates exceeding 96% of offered value, reflecting investor preference for issuers with solid financial positions and credible repayment capacity.

In contrast, high-yield bonds, including those rated BB+ or below as well as non-rated bonds, continue to face significant fundraising challenges. Subscription rates for these securities have fallen below 60%, “underscoring lingering concerns about default risks and financial stability among weaker issuers”, noted K-Research.

The trend highlights a growing focus on credit quality, resulting in capital flows being directed primarily towards financially strong companies while riskier issuers face higher financing costs and limited market access, said the think tank.

Funding conditions have also become less favourable. Thai government bond yields rose in line with global bond market trends and increased domestic government borrowing. As a result, yields on three-year corporate bonds across all major credit ratings, comprising AAA, AA, A and BBB, have risen by 10-18 basis points compared with the end of 2025.

“The increase in borrowing costs led some companies to postpone bond offerings or raise funds only when necessary,” said K-Research.

FLIGHT TO QUALITY

The centre said the biggest risk facing the market is not widespread contagion, but the refinancing ability of weaker issuers, particularly those that previously underwent debt restructuring. Bonds experiencing debt servicing problems account for 2% of total outstanding corporate bonds. Of this group, roughly 0.2% are already in default, while 1.8% have undergone debt restructuring.

Although restructuring eased short-term liquidity pressures, it does not eliminate credit risk. K-Research estimates restructured bonds worth roughly 4.9 billion baht will mature in the second half of 2026, followed by 12.9 billion baht in 2027.

If issuers fail to restore their financial strength, these bonds could face renewed repayment difficulties. Investors should monitor upcoming maturities among high-yield and non-rated issuers, especially those with fragile balance sheets, weak cash flow recovery, or limited access to new financing, said K-Research.

IOC revamps 2036 Olympic host race

The International Olympic Committee has approved a revamped bidding process for the 2036 Summer Olympics, introducing a new ‘strategic dialogue’ phase aimed at strengthening host selection and improving long-term planning.

Khunying Patama Leeswadtrakul, Thailand’s IOC member, said the reform was endorsed at the 146th IOC Session in Lausanne, chaired by IOC president Kirsty Coventry.

Under the new framework, prospective hosts will first enter a strategic dialogue phase from March 2027, during which candidate cities must complete questionnaires and provide key financial guarantees before progressing to a final targeted dialogue and evaluation.

The IOC expects to elect the host city for the 2036 Summer Games in mid-2029.

Khunying Patama said the changes build on reforms introduced in 2019 that shifted the Olympic bidding process towards sustainability and greater benefits for host communities, while providing governments and Olympic stakeholders with a clearer timeline and reducing uncertainty.

With the 2028 Olympics taking place in Los Angeles and the 2032 Games scheduled for Brisbane, Australia, the 2036 edition is the next one available.

Interest from Asia

Khunying Patama said several Asian countries have already expressed interest in bidding for the 2036 Games, although no official candidate has yet been confirmed.

Various media reports have identified Hungary and Qatar as possible bidders, as well as Saudi Arabia, Turkey and India.

The 2032 summer Games were awarded 11 years in advance but the 2030 and 2034 winter Games had six and 10 years’ notice, respectively.

That variability stemmed from a very flexible, largely confidential procedure in which the IOC Session only stepped in at the end of the process to ratify the executive board’s choice.

The IOC Session in Lausanne also approved extensions to the memberships of Sebastian Coe and Tricia Smith until the end of their current terms in office.

In addition, Ivo Ferriani was elected an honorary IOC member and, together with Luc Tardif, received the Olympic Order during the session.

Pathum Thani police praised for rescuing man from bridge

Police have drawn widespread praise after swiftly rescuing a man attempting to take his own life by jumping from a pedestrian bridge in Thanyaburi district.

The rescue occurred about noon on Thursday, following an emergency report received by the Pratunam Chulalongkorn police radio centre that a man was attempting to jump from the footbridge on Phahon Yothin Road in tambon Prachathipat.

Pol Col Adirek Photipan, chief of Pratunam Chulalongkorn police station, ordered an urgent response. A patrol unit led by Pol Capt Phanthat Trikon was dispatched and successfully subdued the man, bringing him safely down from the bridge.

Pol Capt Phanthat said the patrol team had just completed an emergency response drill at Robinson Department Store when they received the report.

On arrival, they found traffic police already trying to calm the man by engaging him in conversation while Rangsit municipality was asked to dispatch an inflatable rescue cushion.

After assessing the situation, Pol Capt Phanthat decided there was no time to wait for additional equipment, believing the man was likely to jump if the standoff continued.

He instructed a traffic officer on the opposite side of the bridge to keep the man distracted through conversation. Meanwhile, he crouched low, moved out of the man’s line of sight, crawled toward him, then launched a surprise tackle and safely restrained him.

The 36-year-old man was brought down without injury and taken to Pratunam Chulalongkorn police station for questioning.

The man told officers he no longer wanted to live because he felt rejected by his family.

Initial checks found no evidence of drug involvement, although officers discovered sedative medication in his possession. They believe he may not have eaten or taken his prescribed medication before the incident.

The Pathum Thani Provincial Social Development and Human Security Office has been contacted to provide further care and assistance.

Locals and witnesses praised the police team for their rescue.

Ex-mayor jailed over car

A former mayor of Yan Ta Khao Municipality has been sentenced to seven years and six months in prison for using a municipal vehicle for personal purposes and charging fuel expenses to the local authority over nearly a decade.

The Trang office of the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) said on Thursday that the Region 9 Criminal Court for Corruption and Misconduct Cases had convicted Wutthichai Sunthornnon and ordered him jailed without suspension.

The NACC had previously found grounds to pursue criminal and disciplinary action against Mr Wutthichai and referred the case to public prosecutors.

According to the court, Mr Wutthichai regularly used a municipal Toyota Fortuner assigned to the municipality as his personal vehicle while serving as mayor. The vehicle was used for travel between his home and office and was often parked near his residence rather than at municipal facilities.

The court also found that the vehicle was used to attend social functions, traditional ceremonies and other non-official activities.

Fuel expenses arising from the vehicle’s use were repeatedly reimbursed from the municipality’s budget, resulting in losses of 976,949.30 baht. The damages comprised 47,361 baht between 2011 and 2012, 928,588.30 baht between 2012 and 2021, and a further 1,000 baht between 2021 and 2023.

The court ruled that the conduct amounted to the misuse of state assets for personal benefit and violated regulations governing the use of official vehicles by local administrative organisations.

People’s Party presses EC to act on Senate collusion case

People’s Party list-MP Parit Wacharasindhu on Friday disclosed additional evidence in the Senate election collusion case, starting with testimony collected in Nakhon Phanom province.

Mr Parit, also the opposition chief whip, said that an Election Commission investigative panel had already found sufficient grounds to implicate 229 accused individuals, with evidence that he claimed was stronger and more conclusive than in previous election-related cases.

If the EC dismissed these cases despite such evidence, questions would inevitably be raised about its impartiality, said the opposition MP, who spoke at the Future Forward Building in Bangkok on the second anniversary of the Senate election.

Multiple investigations have been taking place into alleged irregularities in the three-stage Senate election that concluded on June 26, 2024. The final poll produced highly unusual results, notably a disproportionate number of winners from provinces where the Bhumjaithai Party is strong electorally.

The People’s Party has gathered evidence from several provinces, supplementing publicly available information with testimony from witnesses who had appeared before the EC’s investigation panel.

While acknowledging that the party did not have access to the full case file, Mr Parit argued that if its own findings were already compelling, evidence held by the EC, the Department of Special Investigation (DSI) and an investigative panel should be even stronger.

He said the party would gradually disclose evidence from provinces across the country, beginning with the northeastern province of Nakhon Phanom, where it had compiled five key pieces of evidence.

The first was a video featuring Supachai Phosu, a former Bhumjaithai MP for Nakhon Phanom, speaking at a traditional baisri sukhwan ceremony on Aug 17, 2024, to celebrate the election of Sithikorn Khongyos as a senator.

In the clip, Mr Supachai referred to Mr Sithikorn and two other senators from Nakhon Phanom as members of the ‘blue faction’, a term widely associated with the Bhumjaithai Party.

‘Blue-line senators’

Mr Supachai said in the clip that he was proud to publicly identify the three as ‘blue-line senators’, adding that blue symbolised loyalty to the monarchy and that there was no reason to conceal such affiliation.

He also praised Mr Sithikorn as someone who had consistently supported his political activities over many years, saying that although he could no longer formally belong to Bhumjaithai because senators are prohibited from party membership, he still belonged to the ‘blue’ camp.

Mr Parit said the remarks demonstrated Mr Supachai’s close relationship with the three senators and reflected the existence of organised political factions within the Senate. Although Mr Supachai described himself merely as a supporter, witness testimony suggested he may have played a more active role.

The second piece of evidence concerned a meeting allegedly held at a hotel in Ayutthaya province on June 24-25, 2024, shortly before the Senate election.

According to witness testimony, the gathering included Senate candidates, Mr Supachai, the three eventual senators from Nakhon Phanom and an academic identified only by the initial ‘Por Pla’, who was allegedly involved in preparing voting lists.

Recommended candidates

Witnesses claimed that recommended candidate lists were drafted on the back of Senate election documents for use during both morning and afternoon voting sessions.

According to the testimony, some candidates became dissatisfied after discovering their own numbers were absent from the lists and questioned whether they would ultimately receive support.

One individual who later became a senator allegedly reassured them that candidates from other provinces would vote for them and promised 300,000 baht in cash to anyone who failed to secure sufficient votes.

Mr Parit also alleged that when discontent escalated, Mr Supachai privately negotiated with some candidates, offering Senate assistant positions on a rotating basis if they failed to win election.

They were allegedly instructed to sign undated resignation letters in advance, while being warned that CCTV footage of the meeting had been recorded, which he described as indirect intimidation.

Mr Parit said his team had inspected the hotel and confirmed that it was equipped with numerous security cameras capable of identifying attendees. He also noted that the property owner belongs to the family of a local politician.

Nine plane tickets

The third piece of evidence was an airline booking allegedly made by one of the future senators from Nakhon Phanom, who reportedly purchased air tickets for nine other people. The party said it possessed flight details and ticket prices.

The fourth concerned a gathering at a concrete mill in Nakhon Phanom on June 20, 2024, about one week before the Senate election.

The fifth and final piece of evidence was an audio recording purportedly featuring a senator from Nakhon Phanom discussing benefits with another local leader.

In the clip, the speaker allegedly discussed paying travel and accommodation expenses, persuading successful Senate candidates to help ‘block’ positions, and offering Senate assistant posts with salaries as rewards.

‘We’ve already paid for everyone’s flights. The Nakhon Phanom group’s airfare and hotel expenses have all been arranged,’ the male voice says in the recording.

‘If we don’t lock this down, we won’t be able to compete with them. I’ve seen people abandon their parents, but I’ve never seen anyone abandon money.’ Mr Parit said the audio and supporting evidence indicate systematic coordination across provinces, involving financial incentives, logistical arrangements, and promises of positions. He urged the EC to consider all evidence collectively rather than in isolation.

Now two years since the Senate selection, he said sufficient time has passed for the EC to act decisively. He maintained that any additional evidence in the party’s possession could be submitted if needed, though he believed the EC and DSI already hold comprehensive information.

He also emphasised the importance of corroborating witness testimony with other evidence, including travel records and CCTV footage, which authorities could further investigate

He added that more disclosures from other provinces are forthcoming, as the party continues to compile evidence.

He reiterated that all 229 individuals identified by the investigation panel should be referred to the court, as they have already undergone preliminary screening indicating grounds for wrongdoing.

Earlier, a group of reserve Senate candidates and an election inspector had submitted fresh evidence to the opposition, alleging misconduct by election authorities in the 2024 election.

Pol Col Manas Nakornsri, an election inspector for Samut Prakan, alleged that an EC investigative subcommittee had previously found grounds to pursue cases against 229 individuals, including 136 sitting senators, over alleged collusion.

Gold sinks below $4,000 as traders eye Fed rates

Gold has entered bear market territory, sliding below US$4,000 an ounce for the first time since November 2025 as rising interest rate expectations and a strengthening dollar weigh heavily on bullion, though local traders argue the dip may not last long.

Siriluck Pakotiprapha, vice-president of research at Hua Seng Heng Futures, said a decline below $4,000 has significant implications for gold, which has tripled in price over the past three years from about $1,800 an ounce in 2023.

The recent pullback, driven by a stronger US dollar, rising real yields and hawkish Federal Reserve signals, has resulted in gold prices tumbling roughly 28-30% from an all-time high of nearly $5,600 per ounce in January this year.

Spot gold was down 0.4% to $3,974.89 per ounce yesterday after hitting its lowest level since Nov 20 on Wednesday.

Traders expect three Fed rate hikes this year and are pricing in a 67% chance of a September increase, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

The US dollar advanced for a third straight session on Wednesday to hit a 13-month high, making gold more expensive for buyers holding other currencies.

“The market is worried about Fed chair Kevin Warsh’s statement earlier this month about sticky inflation in the US, which has remained above the central bank’s 2% target since April 2021,” Ms Siriluck said.

If gold cannot bounce back to a key support level of $4,500, she said there is a possibility the price could fall further to $3,800, which would be roughly 61,000 baht per baht-weight of domestic gold bar.

Hua Seng Heng, Thailand’s largest gold trader, predicts the next support level for the precious metal at $3,500-3,600 an ounce, or 58,000-59,000 baht per baht-weight of domestic gold bar.

Several major banks have trimmed forecasts. Goldman Sachs reduced its year-end target by $500 to $4,900 an ounce, while Deutsche Bank cut its fourth-quarter estimate by 17%. Outflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have removed a traditional support for prices.

However, Ms Siriluck said the price contraction may not last long, as oil prices have declined significantly, easing inflation in many economies, particularly the US.

“Once inflationary pressure eases, the Fed might adopt a less hawkish stance,” she noted.

Gold prices should bottom out at around $3,500-3,600 an ounce by the fourth quarter, said Ms Siriluck, which is traditionally the peak season for gold buying.

Fundamental support for gold remains, particularly central bank buying and the de-dollarisation trend. Imports from China, the world’s largest gold consumer, remain solid, rising 78% year-on-year to 692 tonnes in the first five months of 2026.

Tipa Nawawattanasub, chief executive of YLG Bullion and Futures, said structural drivers such as persistently high public debt across major economies and rising digital gold demand, including tokenised gold and reserve-like digital assets, underpin support for gold, despite near-term risks from energy-driven inflation and ETF outflows.

Bad loans still elevated as Iran war hammers firms

The Bank of Thailand intends to focus on asset quality in the banking industry as non-performing loans (NPLs) remain at elevated levels, attributed in part to the impact of the Middle East conflict, says the central bank’s chief.

In response to repercussions from the US-Israel war against Iran, the regulator required banks to conduct stress tests in May to evaluate their resilience against risks and shocks.

The results showed an improvement from the April figures, said central bank governor Vitai Ratanakorn.

Risks stemming from the lingering Middle East conflicts have affected both corporate and retail borrowers, reducing the debt repayment ability of households and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

“We are monitoring the migration of special mention [SM] loans to NPLs, particularly among vulnerable household and SME segments,” said Mr Vitai.

“If this migration exceeds our expectations, additional targeted measures will be deployed.”

SM loans are defined as overdue by 31-90 days, while NPLs are overdue by more than 90 days.

For the first quarter, the SME NPL ratio increased to 9.16% from 9.03% in the previous quarter. Among this segment, the ratio of SM loans inched up to 15.8% from 15.6%, according to central bank data.

Meanwhile, SME loans contracted by 4% in the first three months of the year, following a 3.9% contraction in the previous quarter, and shrinking for 15 quarters in a row.

According to the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), although the overall credit quality of the banking sector remains stable, the debt repayment ability of SMEs and vulnerable households should continue to be monitored.

The committee encouraged financial institutions to continue implementing targeted financial measures to support these vulnerable groups.

Don Nakornthab, secretary of the MPC, said after the rate-setting meeting on Wednesday that SME NPLs remain at a high level and are increasing due to weaker debt repayment capability among corporate borrowers, in addition to a continued contraction of loan offerings.

Regarding the ongoing war, its impact has been less severe than the central bank previously anticipated, with large businesses demonstrating greater adaptability than expected.

Large companies identified new sources of raw materials and adjusted transport routes, he said.

However, SMEs’ adaptation capability is lower than that of their larger peers, said Mr Don.

While tension in the Gulf has eased, SMEs will continue to face limitations in adaptation and are constrained by intense competition, he noted.

Most households are pressured by decelerating income growth and rising living costs, which will weigh on private consumption once government relief measures phase out, said the MPC.

Cost pass-through by firms warrants monitoring amid elevated costs, as well as medium-term inflation expectations, said Mr Don.

Clean energy the focus of power plan

Energy authorities are preparing to unveil a new power development plan (PDP) designed to increase clean energy and meet surging electricity demand, particularly from rapidly expanding data centres.

The plan, scheduled to run from 2026 to 2050, is expected to serve as the roadmap for electricity supply and guide efforts towards achieving a net-zero target by 2050, which is a balance between greenhouse gas emissions and absorption.

Energy Minister Akanat Promphan said the PDP sets an ambitious target: 60% of electricity is to come from clean energy sources. Of this amount, 50% is renewable energy, while 10% is generated from advanced clean technologies, including small modular reactors (SMRs).

According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, SMRs are nuclear power units with a capacity of up to 300 megawatts, roughly one-third the size of traditional reactors.

The 2024 PDP aimed for 51% renewable energy by 2037, but it was scrapped amid criticism and political changes. The new plan emphasises solar power and technologies that reduce reliance on imported fuels, said Mr Akanat.

One such technology is battery energy storage systems (BESS), which store solar energy. Falling BESS costs make renewable power increasingly competitive with electricity from liquefied natural gas imports.

Wattanapong Kurovat, director-general of the Energy Policy and Planning Office, said the plan assumes annual GDP growth of 2-2.5% over 24 years, with electricity tariffs of 4 baht per kilowatt-hour.

The Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (Egat) is to remain the country’s main supplier, with at least a 30% share of power generation.

Egat is expected to spearhead SMR development, though the process — particularly building public acceptance — could take up to a decade, said Mr Wattanapong.

Authorities also plan to introduce demand response management, encouraging households and businesses to cut consumption during peak hours in exchange for bill discounts, he said. This approach aims to reduce the need for constant construction of new power plants.

Industry leaders are also urging the government to incorporate smart grid technology into the PDP.

Nopadej Karnakuta, chairman of the Power Producer Industry Club under the Federation of Thai Industries, said smart grids would improve electricity distribution and support Thailand’s growing digital industries.

Although expensive, smart grids can anticipate fluctuations in renewable energy from solar and wind sources, while also drawing significant private investment, he said.

The PDP is slated to be finalised by the end of this month, after which it is sent to the Energy Policy Administration Committee for approval in July and a public hearing in August.

Violent storm topples 40 power poles in Bangkok

A rainstorm felled about 40 power poles on Chalong Krung Road in Lat Krabang district of Bangkok on Friday evening, cutting off power and internet in the area.

The Lat Krabang district office said the incident happened around 5.30pm, affecting a two-kilometre stretch between sois 31 and 57 on Chalong Krung Road. Power poles were down on both sides of the road and it was completely impassable.

Police quoted eyewitnesses as saying that a violent, whirling wind passed through the area and felled the poles. Many houses lost their roofs. About 30 vehicles were also damaged, with at least two people reported trapped in their cars.

Witnesses said one sedan was crushed in the front by a fallen power pole and the driver was trapped inside. Rescue workers from the Ruam Katanyu Foundation, along with local residents, quickly brought cutting tools and rushed to provide assistance in the pouring rain.

Rescue workers provided first aid to three people at the scene before taking them to a nearby hospital. There were no reports of fatalities.

Metropolitan Electricity Authority crews were removing the toppled poles and power cables and racing to restore power as hundreds of homes and businesses were experiencing a blackout and internet disconnection.