Category: The Bangkok Post

CG Capital Advisory Ltd, the private equity arm of Central Group, plans to launch its second mixed-use hotel and residential project in Phuket within two months, capitalising on strong demand on the island.

Phoom Chirathivat, managing partner and co-founder of CG Capital, said the hotel and holiday home market in Phuket remains robust, particularly after the pandemic.

“We take a long-term view on Thailand and remain confident in the country’s tourism potential and its appeal as a destination for foreigners seeking a second home,” he said.

“Amid growing geopolitical uncertainty, Thailand enjoys a significant competitive advantage as a safe and attractive destination for both tourism and investment.”

Mr Phoom said Phuket continues to offer abundant investment opportunities, prompting the company to proceed with a second project after the successful launch of its first development, The Standard Residences Phuket Bang Tao, two years ago.

The branded residential project registered 85% sales, with Thai and foreign buyers equally accounting for 50%. The project is scheduled for completion and unit transfers by the end of this year.

The second project is located in the Layan Beach area, comprising a hotel and a branded residential development, featuring both condominium units and villas.

Mr Phoom said the company is also exploring a second residential project in Bangkok and plans to acquire a plot in a prime location for development.

“We launched InterContinental Residences Bangkok Asoke shortly after the earthquake in March last year, but still received a strong response, with 60% of the project’s 88 units already sold,” he said.

Mr Phoom attributed the solid outcome to three key factors: the convenient location on Sukhumvit Soi 16, the recognised InterContinental brand, and the project’s focus on large units.

All units are designed with generous living spaces, a segment that remains relatively scarce in the Sukhumvit area, helping to differentiate it from competing projects.

With a total sales value of 5.5 billion baht, InterContinental Residences Bangkok Asoke is expected to comprise a 32-storey tower with 88 units.

Unit sizes start from 139 square metres for two-bedroom residences, with prices starting from 44.8 million baht, or around 322,000 baht per sq m.

Mr Phoom said Thailand’s ultra-luxury residential market continues to demonstrate resilience and has outperformed many global markets, supported by a growing wave of global wealth migration.

According to wealth advisory Henley and Partners, the number of wealthy individuals relocating worldwide increased to 142,000 in 2025 from 51,000 in 2013, rising 178% over the past 12 years.

“While many property markets around the world are facing a slowdown, Thailand continues to maintain its position as a world-class destination with strong fundamentals and broad appeal,” he said.

“Buyers have not disappeared, but they have become more selective and discerning in choosing assets that can preserve value and support their lifestyles over the long term.”

He said affluent buyers are increasingly prioritising quality, brand reputation, location and long-term asset resilience when making decisions.

This trend has benefited branded residences, which offer internationally recognised hospitality standards, professional management and a lifestyle proposition that appeals to global investors and second-home buyers.

“Thailand’s strengths in tourism, healthcare, international education and lifestyle continue to attract wealthy individuals seeking a second home or long-term residence in Asia, particularly amid rising geopolitical uncertainty in other parts of the world,” Mr Phoom said.

The Bank of Thailand has upgraded its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 2.3% from 1.5%, attributed to strong exports, government stimulus and easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The moves comes as the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on Wednesday voted unanimously to maintain the policy rate at 1%, as the market expected.

The committee slashed the GDP growth forecast for 2027 to 1.8% from 2% due to the base effect, said MPC secretary Don Nakornthab.

“Thailand’s economic expansion is projected to be stronger than previously assessed, but growth remains low and uneven,” Mr Don told a briefing.

Growth was supported by merchandise exports and private investment associated with the technology and artificial intelligence cycle, he said.

According to the central bank, government measures to alleviate the impact of the energy crisis and an improvement in the Middle East war would also support Thai economic expansion this year.

The impact of the conflict on the manufacturing and tourism sectors has been less severe than previously anticipated, with large businesses demonstrating greater adaptability than anticipated, noted the regulator.

“The Dubai crude oil price has dropped below the central bank’s average of US$100 for the year, while businesses have identified new sources of raw materials and adjusted their transport routes,” said Mr Don.

However, small and medium-sized enterprises continue to face limitations in adaptation and are constrained by intense competition.

Most households are pressured by decelerating income growth and rising living costs, which will weigh on private consumption once government relief measures phase out, noted the central bank.

Inflation is expected to rise due to supply-side factors, but will subsequently fall once these pressures gradually ease, he said. Headline inflation in 2026 and 2027 remains in line with the previous assessment, averaging 2.8% and 1.4%, respectively.

Mr Don said headline inflation is expected to peak at 4.5% in the fourth quarter of this year, attributed to energy prices and El Niño effects. However, consumer prices would not rise 5% for the year, as the central bank earlier estimated.

For the remainder of 2026, inflation could exceed the target range of 1-3% due to the pass-through of energy and production costs, before declining in 2027 given the dissipation of supply-side pressures and the effect of a high base in 2026.

While inflation has increased due to supply-side factors, the MPC will continue to monitor its outlook and associated risks going forward, he said.

NO NEED FOR A HIKE

Nuttaporn Triratanasirikul, deputy managing director of Kasikorn Research Center (K-Research), said the market widely expected the central bank would keep the rate unchanged at this month’s meeting, as elevated inflation seems to be temporary.

The think tank anticipates the Thai policy rate will stay at 1% throughout the year.

“Oil prices have decreased, particularly West Texas Intermediate crude to less than $74 per barrel, easing concerns about inflationary pressure in the Thai economy,” she said.

In addition, stimulus programmes have been introduced to prop up the subdued economy.

“Clearly, there will be no more rate cuts, but an increase seems unnecessary for now with oil prices dipping,” Ms Nuttaporn told the Bangkok Post. “A hike could exacerbate the fragile Thai economy.”

According to K-Research, government stimulus through the emergency borrowing of 400 billion baht could lift the economy by 0.3-0.6 percentage points. The centre projects Thai GDP growth of 2% this year thanks to the 2.8% year-on-year uptick in the first quarter.

HOLD FOR LONGER

Pundits anticipate the policy rate could be maintained at 1% for at least one year to support the economic recovery, resulting in a prolonged interest rate differential between the US and Thailand and contributing to further short-term weakness of the baht.

The baht plunged to test the new 13-month low of 33.40 to the greenback. The Thai currency has depreciated 5.5% this year.

The CME FedWatch Tool prices in two rate hikes this year, while Bank of America predicts the Federal Reserve could enact up to three increases, delaying rate cuts for another two years.

“If US rates stay higher for longer or rise while Thai rates remain on hold, the widening US-Thailand yield gap could drive capital outflows from Thailand towards higher and safer US yields, putting depreciation pressure on the baht,” said Therdsak Thaveeteeratham, executive vice-president of Asia Plus Securities.

Koraphat Vorachet, assistant managing director and head of research at Krungsri Securities, anticipates the central bank will keep the policy rate unchanged until the end of 2027 to drive private investment.

Raising the interest rate in Thailand would be more difficult than in the US or other countries given that the economic recovery remains fragile, he noted.

The Department of Special Investigation (DSI) has summoned People’s Party MP Pawoot Pongvitayapanu for questioning about a high-profile foreign-exchange fraud case, while the politician insists he is ready to prove his innocence.

Justice Minister Rutthapon Naowarat said on Thursday that Mr Pawoot was among many people being called in for questioning. Mr Pawoot was ordered to meet investigators on July 2 but he can do so earlier if he is ready, the minister said.

The DSI has officially taken over the case based on the large scale of the operation, and its officials will need some time to prepare charges as they have to review as many as 70,000 financial transactions, according to Pol Lt Gen Rutthapon.

The minister said investigators would determine whether videos featuring Mr Pawoot discussing forex trading constituted investment promotion, with the courts making the final decision.

The investigation followed police raids on 24 locations in Bangkok and nearby provinces last week, with many people including a politician and a well-known entertainer suspected of being involved in investment and forex scams.

Officials impounded 65 million baht in cash, gold and silver bullion, ornaments, luxury bags, guns, cryptocurrency hardware wallets, luxury cars and computers.

Mr Pawoot’s name was among those that had come up during the investigation, officials said, while stressing that he had not been formally accused of any wrongdoing.

Mr Pawoot, a list-MP with the People’s Party, said at parliament on Thursday that he had nothing to do with any scams or any Ponzi schemes and was collecting evidence to prove his innocence.

He said he was gathering data dating back five years and it would take four to five days. When he obtained enough evidence, he would meet with DSI interrogators, he said.

Mr Pawoot, who was a well-known technology and e-commerce businessman before he entered politics, said he traded gold futures as an individual investor and never persuaded others to invest with any investment platform.

Asked about reports of 28 million baht transferred into his accounts in 14 transactions of 2 million baht each, the MP said he would explain the transactions after receiving complete banking records.

Commenting on a video showing him discussing QRS Global, one of the firms under investigation, Mr Pawoot said he was only describing his personal trading experiences and was not promoting investment with the platform.

Mr Pawoot has been the point man for the People’s Party in its heavy scrutiny of the government’s 1.6-billion-baht AI Passport project, raising questions about transparency, costs and technical merits.

The government has denied that naming the opposition MP in connection in the forex trading case amounted to political persecution, but even some frustrated members of his own party have said it’s time for him to clear the air.

The National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) on Wednesday urged government officials to exercise caution in disciplinary practices, adding teachers may face legal action if they punish students in ways deemed inappropriate.

The call was made at the launch of the 2025 Human Rights Assessment Report and a seminar titled “Thailand’s Human Rights Landscape: Key Issues of 2025 to 2026”.

Presenting the report, NHRC chairwoman Pornprapai Ganjanarintr said Thailand has made progress in several areas in safeguarding and promoting human rights.

These include enforcement of the law against torture and enforced disappearance, stronger labour protections and measures to assist people displaced by conflict in Myanmar.

However, she said bail rights in political cases, harassment of human rights defenders and protection against refoulement needed to be addressed.

NHRC commissioner Pitikan Sithidej told the forum the treatment of suspects during arrest and detention remained vulnerable to human rights violations.

The concern came despite the introduction of body cameras and the enforcement of the Act on Prevention and Suppression of Torture and Enforced Disappearance, she said.

Ms Pitikan also warned that violations of the anti-torture law were not confined to police, military or prison officials.

“Cases have emerged in schools, including one in which a teacher ordered a student to do 200 sit-ups as punishment, resulting in injury,” she said. “Teachers may not realise that, as state officials, they can also be held liable under the law.”

The commissioner proposed reviving the national justice administration development mechanism established in 2006 as the framework to strengthen cooperation on human rights protection throughout the justice process.

She said the NHRC would also work with police on a proposal to remove the names of former offenders from criminal records to improve their employment opportunities.

Other issues discussed at the forum included the impact of tensions along the Thai-Cambodian border on children’s rights and Cambodian migrant workers, as well as the situation in the deep South.

This article is intended to rebuke the Bank of Thailand (BoT) and those who believe Thailand’s trade deficits are “transitory” and will return to a surplus once oil prices fall back to normal levels.

This article is intended to rebuke the Bank of Thailand (BoT) and those who believe Thailand’s trade deficits are ‘transitory’ and will return to a surplus once oil prices fall back to normal levels.

Thailand used to take pride in its successful export economy. Over the past 20 years, there was not a single year in which the country recorded a trade deficit, even during the Russia-Ukraine war. Although the trade surplus was halved to $13.5 billion in 2022, it remained at an admirable level. At the peak of the oil price spike to $115 (3,839 baht) a barrel in June that year, Thailand’s trade balance briefly slipped into deficit for a couple of months at $1.3 billion per month before returning to a strong surplus, indicating the country’s solid export base.

Contrary to the central bank’s belief, however, a rebound to a trade surplus in 2026 (and beyond) is highly unlikely due to an eroding export base. Oil prices account for only 40% of the deficit problem, yet receive 100% of the blame.

The trade deficit in April 2026 was $6.8 billion, the worst in 20 years. An observant economist such as myself would immediately question the figure. How could an oil price of $101 per barrel – roughly the same level as in April 2022 – have caused a historic trade deficit, particularly when the trade balance in the same month in 2022 showed a surplus of $386 million?

My suspicions led me to investigate the matter. I had previously estimated that rising oil prices of around $100 per barrel would lead to a trade deficit of $1-2 billion per month. There must therefore be other factors hidden within the $6.8-billion deficit figure.

After a careful examination of the sources of the deficit, I found 41% was driven by higher fuel import costs, 28% by increased imports from China, and 26% by higher imports from Taiwan. The first factor – rising oil prices – may be transitory, as the BoT has suggested. However, the other two factors are likely to be more structural. The evidence is presented in the attached table below.

Before explaining the essence of the table, has any reader noticed the significant drop in export growth in February? Can anyone guess the reason? The answer is Chinese New Year. When Chinese populations, both in mainland China and Taiwan, are on holiday, the Thai economy effectively slows as well, as though it is an extension of theirs. There was no comparable drop in export activity in April, as China does not observe Songkran holidays.

The unflattering implication is that Thailand has little control over its export sector and, by extension, its economic destiny. It may therefore be prudent to introduce Chinese language courses as a mandatory part of the school curriculum.

Incidentally, readers searching for trade balance data online – particularly on Trading Economics – will find that Thailand’s April 2026 trade deficit was reported at $10.2 billion (even more concerning). This is not incorrect, as the data is drawn from the Ministry of Commerce, which uses a different accounting method.

The $6.8-billion figure is based on the Bank of Thailand’s methodology, which follows IMF guidelines. The BoT does not include shipping and insurance costs in import figures under the trade account, instead recording them under the services account.

Returning to the essence of the table, it highlights two alarming issues. The BoT and the government may not be alarmed, but as a Thai citizen, I am.

The first is ‘transfer pricing’ involving Taiwan, as shown in the final row of the table. It is notable that Taiwan, a much smaller economy than China, records a trade imbalance with Thailand second only to China. Moreover, the shift from an average monthly deficit of $1.7 billion a year ago to $4.9 billion in April 2026 is striking.

This unusually large deficit with Taiwan would not occur without transfer pricing practices. Taiwanese firms may sell intermediate goods for assembly in Thailand at prices higher than the export price of the finished products shipped onward to end markets.

For example, integrated circuits from Taiwan may be exported to Thailand for assembly at $100 per set. After assembly in Thailand, the finished product – which should, in theory, be exported at $110 to reflect a $10 assembly cost – is instead exported to the United States at $80, because US customers will not pay more. In this case, Thailand pays Taiwan $100 for intermediate goods but receives only $80 from the US for the finished product.

The incentive behind such practices is to boost the profitability of the parent company in Taiwan, thereby potentially supporting its stock valuation. This is not a new phenomenon. According to a study by the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI), similar transfer pricing practices have been observed in durian exports. Chinese intermediaries reportedly purchase durians from Thai farmers at 100 baht per kilogramme and then export them to parent companies in China at 60 baht per kilogramme.

I am not concerned with stock price manipulation. The real question for Thailand is: what benefits does it derive from exporting other countries’ products? The table shows that the more Thailand exports, the larger the trade deficit becomes. The best month for the trade balance is February, when exports are at their lowest.

The second alarming issue highlighted by the table is the ‘China shock’. Owing to excess supply in China, Chinese producers are dumping goods into global markets, including Thailand. Compared with the average monthly deficit in 2025, Thailand’s trade deficit with China in 2026 has increased by 35%. One only has to consider the local industries being displaced by cheap Chinese imports.

Thailand should stop deceiving itself with export-growth illusions. The top-line export figures are meaningless; the bottom line of the trade deficit is what truly matters.

As for the familiar argument that trade deficits arise from imports of new machinery, I would simply note that these are ‘their’ machines, designed specifically to produce ‘their’ products, which may later become obsolete.

A simple comparison of the size of the trade deficit against increases in GDP investment would suggest that this argument is not particularly convincing.

Police have arrested a Chinese man and his Thai girlfriend accused of offering an illegal yuan exchange service, with importers of Chinese products and technology-related criminals among their clients.

The suspects identified only as Zheng, 28, and Kittiyaphorn, 30, were arrested at a three-storey townhome in Chom Thong district of Bangkok on Wednesday, said Pol Col Krit Woratat, an economic crime suppression superintendent.

Police seized two mobile phones and four bank passbooks. They were charged with illegally offering a currency exchange service.

According to Pol Col Krit, the foreign exchange service was advertised via the Facebook page of Ms Kittiyaphorn, which had about 9,800 followers. The couple posted pictures of bundles of cash to make their service appear credible. The suspects sent QR codes for clients to transfer Thai baht to their accounts.

Mr Zheng provided the money and Ms Kittiyaphorn ran the service, setting the daily yuan exchange rate higher than market rates to make a profit.

The Thai woman was also responsible for opening bank accounts to receive money from clients and telling Mr Zheng to transfer yuan via Alipay to clients, Pol Col Krit said.

Police found the couple had handled transactions worth about 26 million baht in total over the past six months. Most of the clients were importers of Chinese products, both individuals and companies.

Nine of the 219 bank accounts with which the suspects made transactions were connected to technology crime, with transactions totalling 1.1 million baht.

The Department of Business Development (DoBD) has intensified its crackdown on nominee shareholding schemes and illicit financial activities, uncovering alleged links between several businesses in Huai Khwang district and online gambling networks.

The operation, conducted jointly with the House Committee on Anti-Money Laundering and Narcotics Suppression and other government agencies, targeted five businesses, including restaurants, shrimp-fishing ponds and a spa.

Authorities found suspected wrongdoing involving three entities, while two others showed no signs of irregularities.

DoBD director-general Poonpong Naiyanapakorn said the inspection was carried out on Tuesday by the department’s anti-nominee task force in cooperation with officials from the Huai Khwang district office, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and the Economic Crime Suppression Division.

The Huai Khwang district houses a large concentration of Chinese-run businesses, mostly restaurants and eateries.

The investigation focused on businesses considered at risk of using Thai nationals as nominee shareholders on behalf of foreign investors, as well as potential violations involving money laundering and suspicious payment systems.

Among the businesses inspected was a company which operates a shrimp-fishing pond.

Investigators found suspected promotional material linked to online gambling websites. Police subsequently seized accounting documents and equipment believed to be connected to gambling activities for further legal action.

Authorities also examined a Chinese soup restaurant which was found to be associated with two companies.

Investigators discovered the same foreign national served as director and shareholder in both firms.

Officials also found restaurant payments were being transferred directly into the personal bank account of a foreign director rather than a corporate account.

The business was also involved in promoting online gambling websites. Investigators also found that two other registered companies shared the same business address.

A third case involved a wellness and spa operator whose shareholders and directors are all Thai nationals.

During the inspection, authorities discovered another company operating on the third floor of the same building. The company sells amulets and talismans and is jointly owned by Thai and Chinese shareholders. However, the premises were closed during the inspection.

Authorities said evidence gathered will undergo further analysis. If financial transactions or personal accounts are found to have been used to conceal the origin of assets linked to criminal activities, offenders could face prosecution under the anti-money laundering laws.

Foreign nationals operating businesses through nominees, as well as individuals who assist or allow their names to be used as proxy shareholders, face penalties of up to three years’ imprisonment, fines ranging from 100,000 baht to 1 million baht, or both.

Thailand head coach Anthony Hudson has signalled that the country’s campaign at the Asean Championship Hyundai Cup 2026 may hinge on a new generation of players, with senior squad members likely to be unavailable due to club commitments.

The Football Association of Thailand (FAT) met on Wednesday to discuss preparations for the regional tournament, which runs through July and August, followed by the Fifa Asean Cup in September and October.

With the competition falling outside official Fifa windows, Hudson admitted that securing first-choice players will be difficult as clubs focus on pre-season schedules.

“We have to accept that the tournament overlaps with club duties,” Hudson said after the meeting. “Our aim is to select players who are ready and whose clubs have approved their release. Most of the squad will be young rising stars, supported by experienced players in certain positions.”

A training camp is scheduled to begin on July 14, though Hudson stressed that negotiations with clubs will continue until then. His plan is to build a balanced side, but the emphasis will be on youth development.

“The main target is to give opportunities to younger players,” he explained. “We will look at the competition game by game, without putting pressure on them, and encourage everyone to bring their best performance.”

Thailand’s recent form has been uneven, a fact Hudson attributed to the absence of key personnel. He expects the upcoming tournaments to be a reset for the team.

Thailand, runners-up in the last edition, have been drawn in Group B alongside Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines and Myanmar.

A drinking session between two friends in Khon Kaen ended in tragedy after one man accused the other of being a ghost before bludgeoning him to death with a hammer, police said.

Wichan Khunsri, 59, was taken into custody on Thursday morning after the incident in Ban Non Kham Pae village in Kut Nam Sai subdistrict of Nam Phong district, said Pol Col Chumphon Buachum, superintendent of the Nam Phong police station.

Investigators said Mr Wichan and his friend Banjong Daphaeng, 57, had been drinking white liquor together in a hut the suspect owned near the village when an argument broke out.

During the dispute, Mr Wichan reportedly accused Banjong of being a Phi Pop, a cannibalistic ghost in Thai folklore, before retrieving a hammer from inside the hut and attacking him.

The suspect repeatedly struck the victim on the head and body approximately 20 times, causing severe injuries, said Pol Col Chumphon. The victim was rushed to Nam Phong Hospital but succumbed to his injuries.

The suspect did not attempt to flee and remained at the scene when officers arrived. Mr Wichan was then taken into custody and handed over to investigators to face a charge of assault causing death.

Energy-driven inflation, elevated government bond yields, and uncertainty surrounding US monetary policy have continued to pressure the global economy, says InnovestX Securities, stressing the need for a more selective investment strategy for Thai stocks amid limited upside.

Sutthichai Kumworachai, head of investment strategy and research at InnovestX, said the global economy is navigating through a critical transition period between downside pressures and emerging growth opportunities.

“Global markets continue to face three major forces: energy-driven inflation, elevated government bond yields, and uncertainty surrounding US monetary policy,” he said.

Against this backdrop, InnovestX sees three important growth drivers gaining momentum: artificial intelligence (AI)-related investment, easing geopolitical tensions, and large fiscal stimulus measures across major economies.

These factors are expected to provide meaningful support for global growth and investment opportunities going forward, said Mr Sutthichai.

Piyasak Manason, head of economic research, said InnovestX expects the global economy to follow a U-shaped recovery.

Activity may soften in the second and third quarters amid tighter financial conditions worldwide, weakening European manufacturing, declining US consumer confidence, and K-shaped growth in China, where manufacturing and exports remain solid but domestic spending remains subdued.

A gradual recovery in the fourth quarter would be supported by technology investment and fiscal stimulus measures across several economies, he noted.

The brokerage upgraded its 2026 Thai GDP forecast from 1.4% to 1.6%, supported by private investment, the digital industry, AI infrastructure and government stimulus.

“We will be monitoring electronics and the progress of stimulus measures, as well as the momentum of AI-related investment and the US Section 301 penalties,” said Mr Piyasak.

STAY SELECTIVE

Sittichai Duangrattanachaya, head of investment strategy at the brokerage, said the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz following the 60-day US-Iran ceasefire, in addition to the AI investment “supercycle” and positive sentiment surrounding the US midterm elections should act as structural tailwinds and limit downside risk.

Despite short-term uncertainty, InnovestX continues to advocate a selective investment strategy focused on companies with strong balance sheets, pricing power and clear earnings visibility, said Mr Sittichai.

The brokerage raised its Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) 2026 index target range to 1,550-1,600 points, reflecting stronger economic momentum and improved earnings prospects, he said.

Beyond domestic opportunities, InnovestX believes global diversification will play an increasingly important role in portfolio construction.

“Maintaining a diversified portfolio, focusing on quality assets, and gaining exposure to long-term global trends remain key strategies for navigating uncertainty and capturing sustainable investment opportunities in the years ahead,” said Saran Potewiratananond, head of proprietary trading at InnovestX.

Under this strategy, the brokerage said its DR23 (depositary receipt) scheme serves as an efficient gateway to global opportunities.

DR23 covers a wide range of global investment themes, including AI and semiconductors, robotics, digital platforms, healthcare, energy, dividend strategies, and leading global exchange-traded funds.

The scheme enables investors to access world-class companies and long-term structural growth opportunities via the baht through their existing securities accounts.

Within one year, DR23 has expanded to 85 underlying securities covering four countries and six major global exchanges, including the US, Hong Kong, China and Japan.

“This reflects growing demand among investors for convenient access to global investment opportunities through the SET,” said Mr Saran.