Category: The Bangkok Post

Despite the post-pandemic recovery, the global petrochemical sector has failed to stabilise. Overcapacity, slowing demand growth, and intensifying competition have pushed margins to their lowest levels in more than a decade. Persistent oversupply will remain the dominant challenge through the end of this decade.

Global utilisation rates for core commodities have dropped well below their historical averages. At the same time, capacity continues to expand in China and the Middle East, further flattening margins. As this trend continues, the future petrochemical market will likely take one of three different forms. In the first scenario, feedstock-rich regions and growth markets lead global trade. The second likely outcome is national oil companies (NOCs) dominate through scale and integration. In the third scenario, protectionism drives the emergence of regional champions.

Southeast Asian players must now consider the road ahead. It remains one of the few regions with solid demand growth, yet must react to a world where global oversupply has dragged down returns. Globally, annualised total shareholder return (TSR) fell to -1% between 2019 and 2024, compared with 15.3% for the S and P 500 – a gap that has weighed on SEA players despite strong local demand.

In response to these industry headwinds, companies across Southeast Asia have made difficult but strategic choices. In the Philippines, JG Summit shuttered its naphtha cracker in January-which produced 480,000 tonnes of ethylene and 240,000 tonnes of propylene annually-citing high costs and weak margins. Meanwhile in Malaysia, Lotte Chemical Titan paused operations at its Pasir Gudang Complex in December to mitigate losses.

In this challenging landscape, the next steps for the region’s industry players will have major implications for future growth.

Rationalisation as the first step

This is not the first time petrochemicals has faced margin compression, but the persistence of today’s imbalance has created urgency.

European players have already moved to rationalise capacity. Sabic closed its Olefins 3 cracker in the Netherlands, removing 550,000 tonnes of ethylene capacity. In France, ExxonMobil shut its Gravenchon steam cracker, losing 425,000 tonnes of ethylene and 290,000 tonnes of propylene capacity.

In our latest report, Preparing for the Next Wave of Petrochemical Consolidation,Boston Consulting Group (BCG) analysis reveals that at least 10 million tonnes per annum of global cracker capacity must be rationalised to restore balance. Without such action, utilisation rates will remain depressed, undermining investment capacity for the transition to low-carbon and downstream products.

Counting on consolidation

Rationalisation alone will not be enough. Consolidation has become the sector’s strongest lever to cut costs, capture synergies, and reposition for resilience.

We already see early signs of industry adapting to this need. More than 300 deals were announced in 2024-among them INEOS’s acquisition of TotalEnergies’ 50% stake in Naphtachimie, Appryl, and Gexaro, which previously operated as joint ventures. These deals seek to leverage crucial sources of advantage, whether that’s feedstock, access to new markets, technology, portfolio diversification, or greater control over key value chains.

In Southeast Asia, consolidation is already reshaping the landscape. Chandra Asri, in partnership with Glencore, acquired Shell’s Singapore refinery and petrochemical assets, before purchasing Chevron Phillips’ polyethylene plant-in doing so adding 400,000 tonnes annual capacity. These moves demonstrate how regional players are seeking scale and integration to compete in an unforgiving market.

Three futures that could reshape petrochemicals

The next decade will be pivotal for the petrochemical industry, with value creation shifting dramatically depending on how global dynamics play out. Our analysis points to three possible futures, each with very different implications for Southeast Asian producers.

The first scenario sees feedstock- and market-advantaged players pulling ahead. Producers in the United States and the Middle East are positioned to dominate global exports thanks to their low-cost feedstock base, while India and China capitalise on domestic demand growth to strengthen self-sufficiency. In such a world, companies in Southeast Asia would be at a structural disadvantage. Regional producers would need to accelerate their move downstream into higher-value or speciality products where differentiation can offset cost disadvantages. Those unable to make this pivot risk being priced out of the global market.

In the second scenario, NOCs rise to dominance. As global transport-fuel demand slows, many NOCs are reintegrating petrochemicals into their portfolios to capture growth and diversify earnings. Armed with government backing, large-scale mergers and acquisitions, and heavy investments in technologies such as crude-to-chemicals, these players could secure an outsized role in the global industry. Southeast Asian producers would face tougher competition from nationally supported companies, unless they form strategic partnerships or focus on specialised products.

The third scenario is defined by the rise of regional champions in a protectionist world. Trade barriers and tightening environmental regulations could slow global flows and push countries to develop self-sufficient value chains. In this context, petrochemical industries would consolidate around two to three dominant players within each region. For Southeast Asia, strong local demand growth could provide a platform for such champions to emerge. But success would hinge on consolidation and integration. Without sufficient scale, even promising domestic players would struggle to compete against better-integrated rivals in neighbouring regions.

The case for bold action

It’s clear that consolidation is no longer optional, regardless of which scenario plays out.

The region does face key structural disadvantages in charting the route forward. Unlike rivals in the US and Middle East, Southeast Asian producers lack low-cost feedstock, while China’s mega-plants benefit from greater scale and lower capital intensity. Southeast Asian players sit in the third quartile of the global cost curve for several key petrochemical commodities, leaving them vulnerable in an increasingly competitive environment.

Some regional players are already testing new approaches. One company is pioneering feedstock flexibility by importing ethane from the US to supply its regional petrochemicals complex, lowering costs by more than 30%. Others are exploring mergers to integrate assets and build resilience.

The challenge now is urgency. As consolidation reshapes the global industry, Southeast Asian producers must act decisively to scale, integrate, and reposition. Those that move boldly can become regional champions. Those that delay, risk being sidelined in the next era of petrochemicals.

Nescafé has launched Nescafé Concentrate Ready-to-Mix, its first ready-to-mix coffee product, to expand its portfolio as part of a major global initiative to capitalise on cold coffee culture.

The innovation is designed to meet rising demand among young millennials and Gen Z consumers for quality, convenience, and personalised cold coffee experiences.

Made with an Arabica and Robusta blend and developed under the “Hack It How You Like It” concept, the products are available in three variants tailored to different tastes.

Black No Sugar is bold and intense for pure coffee lovers; Sweetened Black is smooth with a touch of sweetness; and Latte is creamy and milky for a café-style experience.

Cold coffee already dominates the Thai market, accounting for 65% of out-of-home consumption. This means that out of 3.8 billion cups sold annually in coffee shops, about 2.47 billion are cold coffee.

According to Euromonitor’s 2024 research data, this market segment is valued at over 62.6 billion baht. Young Thais aged 20 to 35 often begin their coffee journey by enjoying cold drinks, with iced espresso being the most popular menu choice.

“This ready-to-mix innovation opens up a new in-home cold coffee category catering to the needs of Gen Z. As one of Nestlé’s global initiatives, the company is building on successful launches in Australia, China, the US, and the UK, and we are confident it will empower Gen Z to shape their own cold coffee culture here,” said Othman Chraibi, business executive officer at Nestlé (Thai) Ltd’s Coffee and Creamer Business Unit.

A man who was lucky enough to get back a phone he had lost the previous day was horrified to discover it now held photos of a skeletal human corpse.

The macabre incident was shared on the Facebook page Kung Nattapon Kff. He had dropped his phone near Soi Chaeng Watthana 14, and someone had found and picked it up.

Fortunately, he was able to arrange to retrieve it the following morning.

He met the person who had the phone, and noticed the individual seemed mentally unstable. Upon returning home and checking through it, he discovered the phone now contained photographs of skeletal human remains lying on a blanket bed with a pillow. (continues below)

The phone’s owner concluded his post by urging police or rescue workers to investigate abandoned buildings in the Chaeng Watthana area, hoping the body could be properly buried or cremated.

Tropical depression Bualoi was downgraded to an active low-pressure cell over Luang Namtha province of Laos at 1am Tuesday but will still cause heavy rain in some provinces of Thailand on Tuesday, according to the Meteorological Department.

Sugunyanee Yavinchan, director-general of the department, said heavy rain was likely as Bualoi strengthened the southwestern monsoon and the monsoon trough over upper Myanmar and the upper North of Thailand.

She advised small boats in the upper Andaman Sea to be kept ashore on Tuesday.

Agriculture Minister Thamanat Prompow on Tuesday rejected allegations made during a heated parliamentary debate that he was unqualified to serve as a cabinet minister.

Anusorn Iamsa-ard, a Pheu Thai Party list-MP, made the allegations.

Mr Anusorn referred to multiple controversies surrounding Thamanat, particularly the infamous ‘flour case’ from 1993. At that time, Thamanat had claimed that a substance weighing 3.2kg seized by Australian authorities – allegedly heroin – was merely ‘flour’.

An Australian court in March 1994 sentenced Thamanat to six years in prison for heroin trafficking. He was released after four years and deported to Thailand.

Thamanat, also a deputy prime minister, said that the Constitutional Court had already ruled unanimously on such matters during his previous tenure as deputy agriculture minister in the Prayut Chan-o-cha government. The court found that he did not violate any disqualifying criteria as set out in Sections 160 (6) and (7) of the constitution.

In short, the court found that only a criminal conviction in Thailand can disqualify a person from serving as an MP or minister.

As well, Thamanat said, the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) cleared him of a complaint of gross ethical misconduct. He said all the relevant documentation had been thoroughly reviewed through proper legal channels.

‘I would like to remind the debating MP that I have been through both good times and difficult times in life. I have always accepted scrutiny and have passed every stage of the judicial process,’ he said.

‘Please stop dredging up old matters to make them political issues again. If there are still doubts, we can discuss them privately.

‘Let me make this clear. Anyone who makes defamatory remarks against me – even under parliamentary privilege, and if those remarks cause reputational damage outside parliament – they will face consequences. Our next meeting place will be in the Phayao [police station].’

Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul on Monday dismissed reports which claimed that Thai soldiers stationed in Phu Makua amid the ongoing border tension with Cambodia have had to survive on meagre rations.

Responding to reports circulating online which claimed the soldiers stationed in the flashpoint area have had to make do with rations consisting of instant noodles, canned fish and three small bottles of drinking water per day, he said the government “supplies all necessary resources to maintain the morale of its troops”.

The Second Army Region also denied the reports, saying all personnel at Phu Makua are well-provisioned with food, drinking water, and other essentials.

The unit acknowledged the logistical challenges posed by recent heavy rainfall but assured that supply lines remain uninterrupted.

With regards to residents who have had to be evacuated from border areas, the prime minister said the government will ensure all relief centres are able to provide all evacuees with proper food, bedding, clothing, and internet access, provided by the Ministry of Digital Economy and Society, to help them cope with stress.

When asked about the growing tension along the Thai-Cambodian border on Monday, Mr Anutin said the government is monitoring the situation in all border provinces.

The prime minister also said the military has been authorised to do whatever it needs to do to protect the country’s sovereignty amid the ongoing border dispute with Cambodia.

He said the government is also working to bolster security on the frontier.

Thailand’s former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has submitted a petition for a royal pardon for his one-year jail sentence, his lawyer said on Monday.

He was jailed earlier this month after the Supreme Court ruled that he did not serve his initial prison sentence after spending six months in a VIP room of a hospital following his return from 15 years of self-exile in August 2023.

Thaksin, 76, was initially sentenced to eight years in jail for conflicts of interest and abuse of power while he was prime minister from 2001 to 2006. His sentence was later commuted to one year by the king.

Thaksin’s request for royal pardon, a process available to all prisoners who have completed their legal cases, could lead to the reduction of his current prison time.

“The petition was submitted,” Winyat Chartmontree told reporters, adding, “This is a right of every inmate.” The former PM has been in Thai politics for around thirty years, winning nearly every election since 2001.

Deputy national police chief, Pol Gen Kornchai Klaiklueng, said the Royal Thai Police will not demolish the new Samsen Police Station, which now lies precariously on the edge of a massive sinkhole which opened up in Dusit district last week.

Pol Gen Kornchai said a team of engineers has inspected the building and determined that demolition won’t be necessary if the damaged foundation pillars are adequately reinforced.

Although the team concluded that the building is in no immediate danger of collapsing, it will remain closed to ensure the safety of both officers and members of the public.

“I will be the first one to enter the building once it is reopened,” assured Pol Gen Kornchai.

He promised the RTP will not use public funds to rebuild the building if authorities decide to demolish the station in the future, out of safety concerns..

He said that RTP has offered the station’s officers temporary residence in three locations: Khlong San, Vibhavadi, and Dusit. Pol Gen Kornchai said the RTP is aware of concerns about the commute, saying the station’s chief and Metropolitan Police Region 1 have been ordered to address the problem.