Most Asian equities declined on Friday at the end of a volatile week, amid mixed signals from the US Federal Reserve about the interest rate outlook, while tech-heavy markets fell on worries about stretched AI company valuations.
The SET index moved in a range of 1,283.13 and 1,317.48 points this week, before closing on Friday at 1,302.91, down 0.5% from the previous week, with daily turnover averaging 33.54 billion baht.
Retail investors were net buyers of 2.85 billion baht, followed by foreign investors at 1.45 billion. Institutional investors were net sellers of 2.72 billion baht, followed by brokerage firms at 1.59 billion.
NEWSMAKERS: China’s exports unexpectedly fell 1.1% year-on-year in October, marking the first drop in since February. The decline came after months of frontloading US orders to beat tariffs, in a stark reminder of the country’s reliance on American consumers even as it woos buyers elsewhere.
Thousands of domestic flights are being cancelled across the US as the government orders a 10% reduction of flights at 40 major airports on safety grounds. Thousands of air traffic controllers have been working without pay since Oct 1 because of the longest government shutdown in history. Many are reporting stress or calling in sick, worsening the problem.
President Trump announced a cut in the “fentanyl tariff” on Chinese imports to 10% from 20%, bringing down the overall tariff rate for many goods to 47%, effective Nov 10. Washington says China has been making progress in curbing the flow of fentanyl and chemical precursors into the US.
China has suspended an additional 24% tariff on US goods for one year, also from Nov 10, but will maintain a 10% tariff rate, and has cancelled tariffs on certain US agricultural products, previously at up to 15%.
Trump has banned sales of Nvidia’s Blackwell advanced AI chip to countries outside the US, including China, but may allow exports of a scaled-down version, reflecting strict AI technology controls.
China introduced new regulations requiring government-supported data centres to use domestically produced AI chips, in a move viewed as positive for Asian and Chinese semiconductor sales.
US Supreme Court judges appeared sceptical on Wednesday about Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose sweeping global tariffs, raising investors’ hopes that the judges would order them revoked. A ruling is not expected until June, unless the court decides the issue needs a more urgent resolution.
Federal Reserve governor Stephen Miran said US monetary policy remains restrictive and that he would continue to advocate for outsize interest-rate cuts. San Francisco Fed chief Mary Daly said officials should “keep an open mind” about a December reduction.
The payroll processing company ADP estimated that US private-sector businesses added 42,000 jobs last month, exceeding market expectations and marking the first increase since July.
The employment consulting firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas reported 153,074 US layoffs in October, nearly triple the figure of the previous year and the highest in 20 years, amid rising cost pressures.
The Bank of England held interest rates at 4% in a tight vote that laid the groundwork for a December cut. It said September inflation of 3.8% was “likely to be the peak”, but it wanted to be certain prices were trending downward before making a cut.
Japan and the US have agreed join forces to extract rare earths in the waters around a small island in the Pacific, as they seek to cut their reliance on China for the critical minerals, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said.
A US judge dropped criminal charges against Boeing over deadly crashes of its 737 Max 8 aircraft as the company agreed to pay $1.1 billion in return for dismissal of a charge of “conspiracy to defraud” the US over its conduct in the certification of the troubled passenger jets.
China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) dropped more than expected to 50.6 in October from a six-month high of 51.2 in September. New export orders fell at the quickest pace since May.
Japan’s Financial Services Agency has endorsed a project by the country’s three largest banks to jointly issue stablecoins, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said.
Opec+ agreed to a ninth monthly increase in crude oil production in December of another 137,000 barrels per day, followed by a temporary halt to increases in the first quarter of 2026.
Toyota raised its operating income and net profit forecasts for the current fiscal year ending in March 2026. The Japanese carmaker now expects operating income of ¥3.4 trillion ($22.1 billion), up from its previous forecast of ¥3.2 trillion.
The struggling Japanese automaker Nissan posted a 61% year-on-year rise in operating profit to ¥51.5 billion ($341.5 million) in the July-September quarter, as efforts to reduce fixed costs as part of its turnaround plan bore fruit.
Malaysia kept interest rates unchanged at 2.75% as the central bank remained confident that the economy can weather US tariffs without the rate relief that has swept across Southeast Asia.
Thailand’s economic cabinet has approved in principle a plan to buy back 122 billion baht worth of small loans from 3.5 million people, aiming to ease the country’s crippling household debt problem, Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas said.
The Bank of Thailand said the economy slowed in the third quarter from the three months earlier, but recovery began in September and is expected to continue in the last three months, driven by rising industrial production, electronics exports, tourism and domestic demand helped by the co-payment stimulus programme.
The government said it expected to launch a second phase of the popular Khon La Khrueng co-payment programme, likely in late December just before the scheduled expiry of the first phase.
Headline inflation in Thailand declined 0.76% in October from a year earlier, following a fall of 0.72% in the previous month, the Ministry of Commerce said. Core inflation excluding food and energy prices rose 0.61%.
The finance ministry has ordered the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) to set up its own asset management company to purchase bad debt from farmers. It targets 100,000 farmers with a total debt size of 8 billon baht.
The Small and Medium Enterprise Development Bank expects to provide loans to SMEs totalling 75 billion baht this year, around 25% higher than last year. In the first nine months, it lent 57 billion baht, up 35.6% year-on-year.
The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking has raised its export growth projection for 2025 to between 9.5% and 10.5%, from 2-3% earlier. However, it said the impact on overall economic growth would be limited as many of the exports contained little value-added or were transshipped.
The cabinet approved Thailand’s bid to host the MotoGP World Championship for another five years (2027-31) with a budget of 4 billion baht. The event, held in the Bhumjaithai Party stronghold of Buri Ram, is expected to generate 25 billion baht in economic value.
Foreign tourist arrivals in the week to Nov 2 totalled 644,179, up 9% from the week before and driven by non-Chinese tourists, indicating a recovery after bottoming out in the second quarter. As Thailand enters the high season, cumulative 2025 arrivals reached 26.9 million, down 7.2% year-on-year.
The Energy Policy and Planning Office has approved in principle a community solar farm programme, with up to 10 megawatts per community for a total of 1,500MW. Power will be purchased at no more than 2.25 baht a unit under 25-year contracts.
COMING UP: On Monday, Japan reports current account data and the British Retail Consortium updates retail sales. On Tuesday, the UK releases unemployment figures and China reports new loans. On Wednesday, Germany announces October inflation, Opec releases its monthly oil market report and euro zone finance ministers meet. On Thursday, the UK announces GDP and trade figures, the US releases inflation for October and and China updates industrial production. On Friday, the EU updates economic forecasts and the eurozone announces quarterly GDP.
STOCKS TO WATCH: Finansia Syrus Securities expects the Thai stock market to face short-term pressure from external factors, including high valuations in the tech sector and renewed worries about US employment. It recommends focusing on domestic and consumption-driven stocks with strong earnings potential. Top picks for November include CPAXT, GFPT, ICHI, KTB and MTC.
InnovestX Securities sees potential positive factors, including new stimulus measures and the final phase of earnings announcements. However, political uncertainty may delay economic policy implementation, while growing concerns over possible bubbles in global equity markets, particularly among AI-related stocks, could trigger panic selling. InnovestX’s top stock picks are MTC, CPALL and GULF.
TECHNICAL VIEW: Finansia Syrus Securities sees support at 1,280 points and resistance at 1,320. InnovestX Securities sees support at 1,275 and resistance at 1,350.
