Asian stocks tracked losses on Wall Street yesterday, as worries about credit quality led to a rout in US regional banking shares. Concerns about trade tensions, a possible tech bubble and the US government shutdown also persisted.
The SET index moved in a range of 1,266.38 and 1,299.43 points this week, before closing yesterday at 1,274.61 down 1% from the previous week, with daily turnover averaging 38.75 billion baht.
NEWSMAKERS: Gold prices hit another record high of $4,379.01 on Friday morning, supported by strong safe-haven buying amid escalating US-China tensions. Thai retail prices reached 67,700 baht per baht-weight (15.2 grammes) for jewellery, while gold bars were sold at 66,900 baht.
The US dollar fell for a fourth day, on track for its biggest weekly drop in more than two months, amid dovish signals from the Fed and worries about US regional banks.
US Treasury officials estimate a government shutdown extending beyond two weeks would cost the US economy up to $15 billion per week. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the shutdown, which began on Oct 1, is already beginning to impact economic strength and efficiency.
The US budget deficit declined 2% to $1.78 trillion for the 2025 fiscal year ended Sept 30 as tariff revenue hit a record high, the Treasury Department said.
The White House is ready to ease tariffs on the US auto industry, a major win for carmakers who have lobbied to reduce the fallout from higher duties on parts. A programme that allows automakers to reduce what they pay in tariffs on imported parts will be extended for five years, sources said.
US President Donald Trump confirmed that trade tensions with China remain high, telling a reporter who asked whether the two countries are headed for a prolonged trade war: “Well, you’re in one now.”
Shares of some US regional banks plunged on news of large write-downs of bad loans. Jefferies Financial Group said it had significant exposure to First Brands, an auto parts maker that has filed for bankruptcy.
The US Energy Information Administration (IEA) expects the global oil market will face a bigger supply surplus of up to 4 million barrels or 4% of global demand, as Opec+ continues increasing production to regain market share from non-members.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its 2025 global growth forecast to 3.2% and expects 3.1% growth in 2026, saying financial conditions have been resilient to US tariff measures. At the same time, it said Asian economies should focus on boosting domestic demand and regional integration to shield themselves from potential risks arising from global trade tensions.
The US and UK governments have sanctioned Chen Zhi, a Chinese-born Cambodian national and confidant of former prime minister Hun Sen, in a major crackdown on transnational scams. Authorities seized $14 billion worth of bitcoin, the largest crypto seizure in history, from the Prince Group of companies controlled by Chen.
The South Korean government said it plans to use the upcoming Asean summit later this month as a platform to propose a multilateral cooperation framework aimed at addressing organised crime in Cambodia. Korean officials are currently in Cambodia attempting to secure the release of dozens of nationals targeted by scam groups.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) reported third-quarter net profit of $14.8 billion up 39% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, confirming robust demand for AI chips.
The food and beverage multinational Nestle has announced plans to cut 16,000 jobs worldwide over the next two years, saving the company one billion Swiss francs — double what had been previously planned.
The Chinese carmaker BYD has announced its largest-ever recall, covering 115,000 Tang and Yuan Pro vehicles made between 2015 and 2022 due to design defects and battery-related safety risks.
IKEA said its annual sales fell for a second consecutive year, as the budget furniture retailer stuck to a strategy of cutting prices to attract cash-strapped consumers and gain market share. Global retail sales in the financial year to Aug 31 fell 1% to 44.6 billion euros ($51.9 billion).
Japan’s largest gold retailer, Tanaka Precious Metal Group, suspended sales of small gold bars for at least a month, unable to meet frenzied buying interest spurred by the metal’s surge to record highs.
Laos is considering halting electricity supply to cryptocurrency miners by the first quarter of 2026, as it seeks to redirect domestic power to industries that contribute more to economic growth, the country’s deputy energy minister said.
The IMF forecasts that Thailand’s economy will grow this year by around 2%, in line with forecasts from other research institutions, including the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC).
The UTCC estimates the Half-Half Plus co-payment programme and tourism stimulus measures will raise fourth-quarter GDP by between 0.5% and 0.8%, lifting 2025 GDP growth to between 2.0% and 2.2%.
The Energy Regulatory Commission has endorsed direct power purchase agreements (PPA) and four solar projects. The direct PPA programme, covering electricity sales up to 2,000MW, is expected to create 3,000 jobs to support industrial electricity demand.
The ERC has also asked the Ministry of Energy to look at supporting self-generated clean electricity by businesses and ensuring that power tariffs reflect true costs.
The cabinet on Tuesday approved a 1.6 trillion baht investment budget for state-owned enterprises. The investment framework for next year is estimated to lift GDP by 0.3%, said government spokesperson Siripong Angkasakulkiat.
The economic cabinet approved tourism stimulus measures through tax deductions of up to 1.5 times the amount spent. It also pressed for accelerated disbursement of state meeting and seminar budgets to support the hotel industry.
The Industrial Confidence Index for September rose to 87.8, the first gain in seven months, reflecting confidence in the new government’s economic stimulus plans, the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) said.
Foreign direct investment in the first eight months of 2025 reached 225 billion baht, up 125% year-on-year, with one-third of the investment going to the Eastern Economic Corridor.
The Ministry of Finance said it has made progress in its investigation of grey money flows that may have contributed to the baht strengthening. A working framework is being established in coordination with various agencies, with results expected by December.
The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) has appointed K-pop superstar Lalisa “Lisa” Manobal as its Amazing Thailand Ambassador to promote Thai tourism internationally.
Former Bank of Thailand governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput said that 12-month average inflation of 0.5%, below the central bank’s 1-3% target range, reflects declining energy and food prices and is expected to remain low in line with oil prices. However, he said this is not deflation as consumption continues to grow. Average wages in the first half 2025 grew 4.6% while cost of living is stable, he said.
Mr Sethaput, in an open letter to the Ministry of Finance, said the consumer price index would stay below 1% until early 2027, and warned that monetary policy alone may not be able to address the issue.
Foreign tourist arrivals in the week to Oct 12 totalled 522,169, down 13.6% from the week before due to the end of long holidays in China, South Korea and India. Cumulative arrivals for the year reached 25.1 million, down 7.5% year-on-year.
The Ministry of Commerce remains confident that Thai exports will grow 3-5% this year, despite an expected second-half slowdown from the high first-half base, with eight-month exports expanding 13.3% year-on-year. However, it said risks include US tariffs, rapid baht appreciation and SME credit constraints.
COMING UP: On Monday, Germany will update its Producer Price Index and the Conference Board will release US leading economic indicators. On Tuesday, remarks by senior European Central Bank, Bundesbank and Fed officials will be closely watched, along with Japanese trade data. Wednesday will bring a UK consumer price index update and US crude oil inventories.
On Thursday, the US releases jobless claims and existing home sales, and Japan releases inflation figures. On Friday, Russia announces an interest rate decision and the US releases core CPI, manufacturing and services PMI and new home sales figures.
Locally, TMBThanachart Bank on Tuesday will hold a briefing on the financial challenges facing salary earners. The Electronic Transactions Development Agency will hold a forum on regional digital platform governance.
STOCKS TO WATCH: Asia Plus Securities (ASPS) says the global market has entered “risk-off mode”, as capital flows into safe-haven assets such as gold and government bonds. Another sign of growing caution is seen in recent US insider trading data: out of 200 major transactions last week, 197 were net sales, including those of leading firms such as Invidia, CrowdStrike and Dell.
In terms of strategy, ASPS recommends maintaining a higher cash position to await better entry points. It highlights stocks poised to benefit from a stronger baht and solid third-quarter earnings, namely GULF, BGRIM, BH and ERW.
KGI Securities (Thailand) maintains a positive outlook on tourism-related stocks in light of new domestic tourism stimulus measures. It recommends AAV, CENTEL and ERW, which generate a high proportion of revenue from domestic travellers. AOT is expected to benefit indirectly from an overall increase in travel.
TECHNICAL VIEW: InnovestX Securities sees support at 1,255 points and resistance at 1,315. CGS International Securities (Thailand) sees support at 1,240 points and resistance at 1,300.