Category: The Bangkok Post

The long-awaited “contractor report card” system is still pending final approval from the new finance minister, according to Department of Highways (DoH) Director-General Piyapong Jiwatanakulpaisan.

Mr Piyapong, who assumed office on Oct 1, pledged to make safety a top priority in all projects, with particular attention being paid to Rama II Road, which has been the subject of much public concern due to recurring accidents.

He noted that contractors working on the project have already adjusted practices to reduce risks while ensuring construction continues on schedule without compromising safety.

“In the past, the Ministry of Transport set up a task force of engineers to identify and correct unsafe practices. These interventions have significantly improved operations. I want the public to be assured that the Department of Highways is doing everything possible to prevent accidents,” he said.

On the much-discussed contractor accountability system, Mr Piyapong explained that implementation rests with the Comptroller General’s Department.

Two legal steps are required: a ministerial regulation on contractor qualifications, allowing contractors to be upgraded or downgraded based on performance, and revisions to regulations on construction and contractor evaluations.

The cabinet has already approved the ministerial regulation, but it now awaits the finance minister’s signature before coming into effect, he said.

Ratchaburi and BG Pathum United suffered their second successive defeats in the AFC Champions League Two on Thursday.

Ratchaburi went down 2-0 at home to Japan’s Gamba Osaka in Group F, while Pathum were defeated by Singapore’s Tampines Rovers 2-1 in Group H.

At Ratchaburi Stadium, a 64th-minute strike by Shuto Abe and a second by Ryotaro Meshino in stoppage time secured the victory for Gamba as the Japanese side joined Vietnam’s Nam Dinh FC on maximum six points.

The visitors broke the deadlock with their first shot on target in the 64th minute when Abe launched a 20-yard rocket past Ratchaburi keeper Kampon Phatomakkakul into the top right corner after a poor clearance by Scott Allardice.

Meshino squeezed his shot between two defenders and past Kampon in the fourth minute of stoppage time to ensure the visitors picked up three precious away points and hand the home side their second successive defeat in the group.

Pathum United also remain winless after two games in Group H with a 2-1 defeat to Tampines Rovers at Bishan Stadium.

Trent Buhagiar headed home in the 42nd minute, while Hide Higashikawa added a second in the 57th minute to consign the Rabbits, who scored a late consolation through captain Chanathip Songkrasin, to their second defeat.

Pathum coach Supachai Komsilp announced his resignation during the post-match press conference, saying he’s “taking responsibility for the team’s poor performance”. His assistant Vladimir Vujovic has been appointed as interim coach.

Port keen to recoil

Port will face promoted Kanchanaburi Power at their PAT Stadium in Thai League 1 today.

The home team will be looking to bounce back from a loss against BG Pathum United in the previous game, while Kanchanaburi beat Lamphun for their first win of the season last weekend.

Also today, Chonburi will visit Uthai Thani in a battle between two bottom clubs, while Chiang Rai will host Rayong and Ayutthaya will face Sukhothai.

‘Over 45% of all districts across the country have already entered a completely aged society. Three districts with the highest ratio of seniors are in Bangkok,” said Assoc Prof Niramon Serisakul, director of the Urban Design and Development Centre (UDDC).

In a completely aged society, people aged 60 and over account for 20% of the population. According to the UDDC, seniors are most concentrated in Samphanthawong (35.4%), Pomprap Sattruphai (34.3%) and Phra Nakhon (33%) in Bangkok, followed by San Pa Tong (32.4%) in Chiang Mai and Pa Sang (32.3%) in Lamphun. In Thailand, the number of elders has now reached 13 million.

“It is a wake-up call for cities to adapt,” she said.

As a result, the UDDC unveiled AFCC-SHiP, an index measuring cities’ age-friendliness, in collaboration with the Thai Health Promotion Foundation on Sept 18.

Assoc Prof Niramon said the advent of the grey society is bringing about multiple challenges. In terms of social vulnerability, many seniors experience isolation. A combination of factors, including hectic life and generational gap, leads to lack of support for the elderly. In terms of economic vulnerability, a shrinking workforce is also resulting in economic slowdown.

“However, cities can be a starting point for change. As more than half of Thais live in urban areas [according to the UN World Urbanisation Prospects], cities can provide a textbook example for adaptation,” she said.

Assoc Prof Niramon said the urban environment impacts a person’s health. A wide range of factors from pollution, lack of green space to sedentary lifestyle can increase health risks. Even with better access to healthcare services, urban residents are still vulnerable to health problems and despite a decline in seasonal illnesses, non-communicable diseases and degenerative conditions are a growing concern.

“This is a big transition. Behaviour and degeneration affect our health,” she said.

Assoc Prof Niramon drew attention to how an unsupportive environment can cause extreme suffering in old age. For example, there are around 5.5 million seniors who are injured in accidental falls each year, with a death rate of three per day, according to a study by Chulalongkorn University’s Faculty of Nursing. The city’s environment, such as pavements and lighting, is not friendly to elders.

“Despite our life expectancy of 74, we suffer from illnesses for seven years, which accounts for 10% of our life,” she said. “It is clear that we age fast.”

Assoc Prof Niramon said an age-friendly city will enable people to accumulate “health capital” throughout their life. It is characterised by safety, promotion of physical and mental health and inclusion. For example, Akita in Japan encourages senior participation through several initiatives, including the one-coin bus and the multigenerational city hall. Meanwhile, Singapore’s silver zones enhance road safety for senior residents.

“Urban environment and well-being have a complex relationship. It requires a tool for analysis and assessment. AFCC-SHiP will be a helpful compass for building good cities. Old age isn’t the future. It is here and now,” she said.

Adisak Guntamueanglee, deputy director of the UDDC, said cities should first be able to meet basic needs and then gear towards age-friendliness. SHiP is adapted from a global policy framework for age-friendly cities and communities (AFCC). It covers four categories, including security, health, infrastructure and basic services, and participation.

“SHiP is not just an index. It can be seen as Noah’s Ark or shipping [a word used in Boys’ Love to denote homoerotic pairing] of urban environment and well-being,” he said.

A survey of over 1,000 municipalities and subdistrict administrative organisations across the country shows that poverty has the most adverse impact on urban residents (19%), followed by housing (14%) and NCDs (14%). Other challenges include pollution and natural disaster (13%) and lack of social welfare (12%). However, access to healthcare is a high priority for an age-friendly city.

An overall analysis found that “Bangkok is an outlier”. Its urban environment, including physical and socioeconomic aspects, can mostly fulfil basic needs of residents. Victory Monument is the country’s most concentrated medical hub. Other high-ranking areas include Phuket, Nonthaburi, Chon Buri and Chiang Mai. On the other hand, Buri Ram, Si Sa Ket, Surin, Kalasin and Sa Kaeo fall behind.

When it comes to age-friendliness, cities can be roughly divided into three levels. Top-tier cities are most equipped with age-friendly infrastructure, for instance, Bangkok, Samut Prakan, Pathum Thani and Khon Kaen. Mid-tier cities have mediocre capacity, for example, Rayong, Prachin Buri and Nakhon Nayok. Low-tier cities are most vulnerable and need urgent support, such as Mae Hong Son, Nan, Phayao and Bueng Kan.

“Urban environment is highly critical to the health of urban residents. It impacts the quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY). With access to healthcare, people in Bangkok are more likely to have the best QALY,” he said.

Adisak explained that these findings show a relationship between urban environment and senior well-being. Still, it should take into account socioeconomic differences — the poor in bigger cities experience more health vulnerability than those in smaller towns. He called for an improvement in infrastructure and basic service for the ageing, while promoting the silver workforce and ensuring access to healthcare.

Speaking at a public forum, Dr Suthee Saritsiri, director of the Health Promotion Division of the Department of Health of the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration, said the city conducted a health checkup for around 200,000 seniors from October 2024 to September 2025. They are vulnerable to NCDs, which are related to paralysis, kidney disease and heart disease. Also, they live with dementia, fall injury and malnutrition.

The BMA has launched several preventive long-term care initiatives to increase social interaction. Currently, there are 490 activity groups, with at least 50,000 members. Moreover, it has equipped seniors with smart watches to ensure that they walk at least 7,000 steps per day to reduce the risk of NCDs and foster connection. In the wake of an earthquake in March, the city is also looking to provide more support for older adults living alone in condos.

When asked what the city can do more to address demographic shift, Dr Suthee said the family institution has been weakened because people focus solely on bread-and-butter issues.

“The urban environment should be designed to promote multigenerational activities. Community art and running events are textbook examples of bringing people together,” she said.

Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has declared sustainability will be the new cornerstone of Thailand’s economic strategy and emphasised the need to build resilient foundations in industry, trade and investment to navigate global volatility.

During a seminar titled “A Call for Adaptation: The Sustainability in Trade and Industry at the Sustainability Expo 2025 (SX2025) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center, Mr Anutin delivered a keynote speech on the topic of “Elevating Industry, Trade and Investment Towards Sustainability”.

Mr Anutin, who is also the interior minister, said that the modern world is fraught with uncertainty, stemming from the threats of war, economic competition, trade barriers, and geopolitical pressures. Thailand can no longer afford to remain passive. Without urgently laying new foundations, the country risks falling behind on the global stage, he said.

“Sustainability is not a political fad, but the nation’s way forward,” he said.

He said that despite the government having only four months, it must still pursue “quick wins”. Simultaneously, it is necessary to establish long-term policies that will not be overturned with future administrations to ensure continuity and build investor confidence.

Mr Anutin said that Thailand’s approach to development has three dimensions: a stable economy, a sustainable environment and improved quality of life.

He said that Thailand is at a crossroads. The world is facing uncertainty caused by war, economic competition and climate change. “The question is. which direction will Thailand take?”

“We must pursue sustainable development,” he said, expressing a belief shared by many that “this is not a choice, but the only way forward”.

This means creating jobs and income, ensuring that Thai people enjoy a good quality of life, and preserving the world so that future generations can live in good health. However, the greatest challenge is that today’s world is far more complex than before, he said.

On the same platform, Mr Anutin also addressed trade and investment, saying that Thailand must become a strategic hub, both by land and sea.

“If Thailand remains merely a country through which investors move goods, we gain nothing. We must make them stop, utilise, invest, produce and create jobs in Thailand,” Mr Anutin said.

He also highlighted Thailand’s strengths in culture, religious diversity, and political stability as social capital not easily found elsewhere in the region.

He acknowledged that the public sector must support all levels of investors and entrepreneurs through investment promotion measures.

“We need a government strong enough to support capital but not so passive that capital dictates everything. If we allow full competition, Thailand will become the region’s most capable country,” Mr Anutin said.

Ukraine has called on Thailand to appoint a special trade envoy to Kyiv to help coordinate reconstruction efforts in the war-torn country.

The request was made during a diplomatic visit by three Ukrainian MPs: Vadym Halaichuk of the Servant of the People Party, Tamila Tasheva, who oversees restoration in occupied territories, and Lesia Vasylenko, head of climate change and clean air panels.

Speaking to the Bangkok Post, Mr Halaichuk emphasised the enduring friendship between Ukraine and Thailand since Ukraine’s independence, and the importance of expanding cooperation in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression.

“This visit is part of a broader effort to inform our partners in Thailand about the realities in Ukraine,” Mr Halaichuk said.”Our top priority is to share our fight for freedom, independence, and territorial integrity — and to engage directly with decision-makers in Parliament, government, and civil society.”

The Ukrainian delegation met with Thai officials from the Senate, House of Representatives, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and academic institutions.

More to be done

Mr Halaichuk highlighted Thailand’s consistent support for Ukraine at the United Nations, particularly in backing resolutions that defend Ukraine’s sovereignty and provide other humanitarian assistance, such as donations.

However, he noted that more could be done in areas such as trade, sanctions, and economic cooperation.

Mr Halaichuk also stressed the need for closer consultation between the two governments.

“We’re proposing formal consultations to push forward economic and cultural cooperation,” he said. “Appointing a Thai special trade envoy to Ukraine would be a significant step in that direction.”

“Seventeen countries have already appointed special envoys. We hope Thailand will join them soon,” he said.

He said that the Thai envoy’s role would be distinct — focused solely on reconstruction. “We need someone whose full attention is on rebuilding Ukraine.”

Thai officials, including representatives from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Department for European Affairs, reacted positively to the proposal.

“There’s strong interest. Now we await Thailand’s decision on who will take up this important role,” he said.

Mr Halaichuk said he had told Thai officials, business leaders, and civil society representatives that Ukraine is not only seeking humanitarian aid but also strategic investment partnerships.

“We are grateful for Thailand’s donations — money, medicine, electricity generators — but now we must focus on rebuilding,” he said. “We cannot wait for the war to end. Reconstruction must happen alongside resistance.”

Ukraine is currently rebuilding homes and infrastructure destroyed by Russian attacks, and he said Thailand’s potential role in supplying construction materials and modular housing technology is needed.

“Glass, for example, is in high demand, and Thailand has the capacity to provide it,” he noted.

“So these are very concrete issues that we have discussed,” he said.

“And hopefully, as the information passes through, certain decisions will be made, which will make those priorities addressed at our governmental level too … and with our businesses and put people together to work on.”

Mr Halaichuk affirmed that Ukraine’s commitment to international partnerships remains strong.

“Our president remains in office, and our foreign policy goals are clear. We’re ready to move forward with Thailand on multiple fronts,” he said.

Looking to Asean

Ms Tasheva said she has urged Thailand and other Asean nations to deepen cooperation with Ukraine, particularly through sectoral partnerships and humanitarian support for repatriating abducted Ukrainian children.

Ms Tasheva also met with Thai MPs, the Senate, and university students, emphasising the importance of inter-parliamentary dialogue and regional engagement.

Ms Tasheva, who previously served as the President’s Permanent Representative in Crimea (2022-2024), said that her delegation’s visit to Thailand followed stops in Malaysia and the Philippines.

“We’ve had meaningful exchanges with parliamentarians and civil society across the region,” she said. “These relationships are essential — not only for post-war recovery but for building a shared future,” she said.

In Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, the Ukrainian lawmakers recently participated in the Asean Inter-Parliamentary Assembly (AIPA), holding 12 bilateral meetings to explore cooperation.

“We understand how vital it is to build relationships with Southeast Asian countries,” she said. “Platforms like AIPA are key to fostering long-term cooperation.”

In the Philippines, the delegation engaged with parliamentarians, women’s organisations, think tanks, and universities. Discussions focused on hybrid warfare, maritime security, academic collaboration, and trade development.

Ms Tasheva also praised Thailand’s delegation for its strong statement of support during recent Asean observer country dialogues.

“Ukraine is currently an observer in Asean, but we hope that next year, member states will vote to grant us sectoral partnership status,” she said.

“We see great potential for collaboration, especially in agriculture and development.”

The MP also highlighted Ukraine’s humanitarian initiative “Bring Kids Back”, which seeks to return children allegedly abducted by Russia during the war. “This is not just a Ukrainian issue — it’s a matter of international humanitarian law,” she said.

The creation of a Thai sovereign wealth fund (SWF) has been debated in the country for several years.

Most recently, Supavud Saicheua, chairman of the National Economic and Social Development Council, reiterated his support for the proposal, pointing to Singapore’s success as a model. Established in 1981, Singapore’s SWF has grown to manage assets of roughly US$1.2 trillion, contributing returns equivalent to 20% of government revenue.

The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking also voiced its backing, viewing an SWF as an additional tool to manage capital flows and foreign exchange.

Payong Srivanich, chairman of the Thai Bankers’ Association, said such a fund could help raise demand for US dollars, giving the central bank another instrument to stabilise the baht and manage currency fluctuations.

He also urged the regulator to develop new instruments to maintain financial stability in a rapidly changing global environment.

What is a sovereign wealth fund?

These funds are set up by a government to manage the nation’s assets. The key features of SWFs are state ownership and financing by sources such as international reserves, revenue from oil exports (in the case of oil-producing countries), fiscal surpluses (with a portion allocated for the fund), or returns from state investments.

An SWF can invest in various asset classes such as equities, bonds, real estate and foreign funds.

The returns from SWFs can be used to cushion against future economic crises and serve as a mechanism to save natural resource revenues (such as Norway’s oil income) for future generations. Many countries operate SWFs, including Norway, the United Arab Emirates, China and Singapore.

What is the difference between international reserves and an SWF?

An SWF focuses on investing in assets that generate high returns while addressing the country’s long-term goals. These funds typically invest for the long term (often more than 20 years), can accept higher investment risks and can tolerate short-term losses. SWFs tend to invest in less liquid assets such as common stocks and private sector debt instruments in order to maximise returns.

In contrast, international reserves are focused on short-term investments, generally with an average maturity of less than five years. They have limited risk tolerance, prioritise minimising short-term losses and invest mainly in highly liquid assets such as foreign currencies and gold. Their purpose is to ensure exchange rate stability and provide immediate liquidity in the event of a currency crisis.

Does an SWF pose risks to a country’s international reserves?

Somjai Phagaphasvivat, an international economics analyst, said managing an SWF is not easy. If poorly managed, he said such a fund can affect international reserves.

SWFs have existed for a long time, and while some countries have suffered losses from mismanagement, others have generated profits, with Singapore a notable example, attributed to highly skilled personnel capable of managing such a large fund.

Mr Somjai recommended a clear bottom line: “If we invest in something risky, it must not jeopardise the majority of our reserves.”

Supporters of establishing a Thailand SWF argue concerns over the potential impact on reserves are an excuse to oppose its creation. However, he said an SWF does not use all of a country’s reserves — it only manages the surplus portion of reserves exceeding a necessary level in order to maximise returns.

International reserves play a vital role in maintaining macroeconomic stability, particularly as a buffer against economic crises, stabilising the value of the baht and in meeting external debt obligations during emergencies.

Typically funding for an SWF comes from reserves exceeding the internationally recognised adequacy level (as determined by the Bank of Thailand), or from fiscal surpluses.

Through careful consideration and guidance by clear criteria, Mr Somjai said an SWF can channel surplus funds into generating long-term returns, without affecting the core functions or stability of the country’s international reserves.

He said the most critical challenge is Thailand’s inexperience in independently managing funds for diversified global investments. However, the country does have some foundational elements that can be built upon.

Thailand has a few institutions with experience in managing large funds, as the Bank of Thailand manages international reserves, while the Social Security Office and Government Pension Fund have expertise in both domestic and international investments.

Mr Somjai said what matters most is not only past experience, but establishing sound governance from the outset, consisting of three prongs:

Independence: Management of an SWF must be completely separate from politics to prevent interference and misuse of funds for inefficient populist projects.

Transparency: Clear laws and mechanisms must be in place to ensure public disclosure of investment activities and returns.

Expertise: The fund must have a professional board and management team with global investment expertise, guided by well-defined investment policies.

What are some examples of successful SWFs?

Singapore and Norway are both examples of successful SWFs, though their structures and factors for success differ according to each country’s context.

Norway’s fund is called the Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG), but is widely known as the Oil Fund. It was established with a long-term goal: to transform revenues from oil and natural gas sales into wealth for future generations, ensuring the income from finite resources does not benefit only the current generation.

Separation from politics is the most critical factor. Norway has a strong governance system, where parliament and the Finance Ministry set broad investment policy guidelines. However, the day-to-day fund management — such as asset selection and stock trading — is delegated to Norges Bank Investment Management, an independent unit of Norway’s central bank, ensuring professional investment decisions free from political interference.

There is also transparency and accountability, as every investment of GPFG can be closely scrutinised. Investment data and returns are regularly disclosed to the public on a quarterly and annual basis, allowing citizens and parliament to monitor operations at all times.

The GPFG also has strict guidelines prohibiting investments in companies involved in human rights violations, arms manufacturing, tobacco or environmental destruction. This enhances the fund’s credibility and legitimacy on a global scale.

Meanwhile, Singapore’s SWF structure consists of two main funds with similar roles: Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) and Temasek.

Both are independent private entities managed by professional teams. They are not considered direct government agencies, even though the Finance Ministry is a shareholder.

GIC acts as the manager of Singapore’s foreign reserves, focusing on globally diversified investments to generate long-term returns, while Temasek Holdings is a holding company that makes strategic investments in domestic and international companies, aiming to create added value and improve the management of those companies.

Despite their high degree of independence, both funds are supervised by the president of Singapore, who has the authority to review board and senior management appointments. This ensures reserve funds are not misused and investment decisions do not adversely affect the country’s capital.

Operating as private companies allows GIC and Temasek to make investment decisions quickly and flexibly in global markets, investing efficiently in emerging industries, unlike funds strictly regulated by the state.

Although the structures differ, both Singapore and Norway have achieved success based on similar principles: separating fund management from political influence, having clear long-term goals and ensuring professional governance.

Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul on Saturday hailed the successful suppression of nine major drug networks, with 16 suspects held and massive amounts of drugs seized in a nationwide crackdown in September.

Presiding over a press conference at the Narcotics Suppression Bureau, Mr Anutin, who also serves as interior minister, said drug suppression was a national priority and an urgent mission for the Royal Thai Police.

He emphasised the need to elevate Thailand’s drug enforcement strategy given the severe threat illicit narcotics pose to public safety. He also instructed police to seek international cooperation to combat transnational trafficking.

Under the government’s anti-narcotics efforts, authorities in September busted nine major drug networks, arresting 16 suspects and seizing 18.5 million amphetamine pills, 1,488 kilogrammes of crystal methamphetamine and 29kg of ketamine.

The arrests were made in Nakhon Phanom, Saraburi, Nakhon Ratchasima, Kamphaeng Phet, Nakhon Sawan and Chiang Rai. They included raids on drug storage points and seizures of trafficking vehicles bound for the Central Plains and South.

In Suphan Buri, an operation led by the Special Operations Division of the Metropolitan Police Bureau broke up a major trafficking group, with one suspect wearing a monitoring bracelet in connection with a child abduction case.

Along the northeastern border, patrol officers arrested traffickers along the Mekong River in Nakhon Phanom and another gang in Bueng Kan.

In the 2025 fiscal year to Sept 30, the Royal Thai Police handled 265,446 drug-related cases and arrested 265,109 suspects. Seizures included 1.08 billion methamphetamine pills, 51,916kg of crystal meth, 6,031kg of ketamine and 11,294kg of heroin.

An electric fence has been identified as the cause of injury to an elephant found in a weakened state in Khao Yai National Park, the Department of National Parks, Wildlife and Plant Conservation reported on Saturday.

Veterinarians were urgently dispatched to inspect the adult male elephant discovered at tambon Pong Talong in Pak Chong district of Nakhon Ratchasima on Friday. The pachyderm was found lying on its side with an open wound at the end of its trunk, having urinated on itself and experiencing diarrhoea.

Veeraya Ochakul, head of animal conservation for the First Conservation Area Administrative Office, said the elephant likely encountered a high-voltage fence. Its condition was consistent with electric shock when vets first examined it.

It is suspected that the elephant contacted a fence set up by local farmers to protect their fields.

Latest reports indicated that the elephant is once more able to stand and is in recovery.

Authorities have pledged to return it to a safe section of Khao Yai National Park once it receives all necessary medical care.

India has long benefited from geopolitical arbitrage, maintaining working relationships with Russia, the United States, and Europe. But this delicate balancing act is now being tested by a series of policy shocks delivered by US President Donald Trump’s administration. These disruptions, unlikely to ease anytime soon, raise a critical question: Can India retain its status as the world’s fastest-growing major economy?

The most urgent challenge facing Indian policymakers is weathering the escalating trade war. In August, Mr Trump imposed a 50% tariff on Indian imports, citing the need to reduce India’s trade surplus with the US and punish the country for its massive purchases of Russian oil. Adding to the pressure, Mr Trump has urged the European Union and other G7 countries to take even harsher steps — namely, to impose a 100% tariff on imports from India and China.

Mr Trump’s decision to hike H-1B visa fees to US$100,000 (3.2 million baht) represents yet another blow to India’s economy, particularly its IT services industry — one of the country’s most dynamic growth engines. Currently, Indian nationals account for more than 70% of all H-1B holders, with most of them working in IT or technology-related sectors. Given this, it’s hardly surprising that the share prices of Indian companies like Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, and Wipro, which rely heavily on H-1B visas to access the US market, declined following Mr Trump’s announcement.

While Mr Trump has labelled India a “dead economy”, it is unclear whether he meant this as a statement of fact or a threat he will make good unless India offers sufficient concessions in its trade negotiations with the US. Either way, there is little evidence to suggest the Indian economy is at risk of collapsing anytime soon.

On the contrary, India is among the world’s most vibrant economies. In July, before the new US tariffs were imposed, the International Monetary Fund projected that India’s GDP will grow by 6.4% in 2025 and 2026 — well ahead of America’s projected annual growth rate of 1.9%. No other major economy comes close, with the exception of China, at 4.8%.

Barring external shocks, India is well-positioned to sustain its rapid growth rate over the next decade and become the world’s third-largest economy by 2030. Given its vast population and growth momentum, India could even overtake China and the US to emerge as the world’s largest economy within the next 50 years.

That said, the extent to which US policy shifts might affect India’s growth trajectory remains unclear. In the early 2000s, India was far less exposed to global trade than China was, with exports accounting for less than 15% of its GDP, compared with China’s 20%. Since then, however, India’s reliance on trade has increased significantly. Exports now make up more than 20% of GDP, leaving the country more vulnerable to trade shocks.

Given that the US is India’s largest export market, Mr Trump’s tariffs will likely hit harder than similar actions by other trade partners. Still, it is important to remember that India is a continental economy, with domestic consumption playing a far greater role than external demand. Moreover, the EU’s trade significance for India nearly matches that of the US, and China and the Middle East are also important export destinations. Consequently, while US tariff hikes are disruptive, they are far from fatal.

This is not to say that Indian policymakers can afford to be passive. To mitigate the impact of US restrictions, they must pursue a dual strategy comprising stimulative macroeconomic policies and a concerted effort to deepen trade ties with the EU, China, and the Middle East.

It is also worth noting that the relative importance of the US market is likely to decline as a result of Mr Trump’s protectionist trade policies. Should his administration stay the course, the EU and China may well surpass the US as the world’s leading import destinations by 2028.

Beyond short-term policy responses aimed at offsetting the fall in US demand, the Indian authorities would be well advised to implement structural reforms. Key priorities for sustaining long-term growth include raising the female labour-force participation rate from 33% to levels much closer to China’s 60%, improving the investment climate by tackling bureaucratic corruption, and upgrading infrastructure — roads, railways, ports, and airports — to lower the cost of production and trade.

By adopting these reforms, India will not only be able to weather Mr Trump’s tariff war in the short term but also sustain its growth miracle for years to come.

After delivering a policy statement in parliament early this week, the Bhumjaithai-led (BJT) coalition is now in full gear. With both populism and nationalism at play in the Thai-Cambodian conflict, the party finds its popularity surging like never before.

BJT leader Anutin Charnvirakul has pledged to honour the memorandum of agreement (MOA) with the People’s Party (PP) that requires it to play an interim role, which means it has four months to run the country, in addition to a charter-rewriting commitment and maintaining the minority government status.

However, political pundits have already started discussing the possibility that the party could lead the next election with Mr Anutin forming another government and even completing a regular four-year term.

In fact, the BJT has every reason to aim high, having swept more than 120 MPs into its camp ahead of the next election, almost double its tally from the previous poll.

Such a scenario could play out, should the party enjoy massive success in the Northeast, the traditional stronghold of the embattled Pheu Thai Party, and the South, formerly the Democrats’ base. Besides, the BJT is busily rebranding itself to cater to new supporters, securing more places for its list-MPs.

The next election is set to take place amid a changed political landscape. The previous poll saw a struggle between the old and new guard as the ex-junta clique experienced its sunset moment.

Pheu Thai entered a deal with the conservatives to secure a chance for its former leader, Thaksin Shinawatra, to return home after nearly two decades of exile. Thaksin was to lead a political game against the then-Move Forward Party, which has effectively since been rebranded as the PP. But his attempts flopped.

So the “Thaksin factor” has now gone, and the ideological warfare between the left and right-minded camps is notable despite the various parties showing more flexibility in making decisions, as evidenced in the case of Pheu Thai and the old guard, as well as the PP aligning with the BJT to propel the latter to the top administrative position.

More importantly, it’s clear the public is paying scant attention to ideology, but is extremely obsessed with the Thai-Cambodian conflict and the need to solve economic difficulties.

This is the best time, the golden moment, for the BJT. Should it make the right decision on the two aforementioned issues, it’s not too hard for the party to amass political gains in the next election, expected around March or April next year.

In fact, now that the party is in power, and given its close affiliation with major institutions, the BJT already has an advantage over its political rivals. That said, Pheu Thai, the former ruling party, is aware of its fate.

The BJT’s rising popularity is attested in survey polls by Nida on Sept 19 and 24. The biggest group of respondents, 27.28%, remains undecided about who they should support as a suitable prime minister for the time being. About 22.8% chose PP leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, followed by Mr Anutin (20.44%), Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan of the Thai Sang Thai Party (7.16%), and Chaikasem Nitisiri of Pheu Thai (6.76%).

It should be noted that the PP still enjoys top rank in the survey polls, but its popularity has been dented significantly, from 46% in the previous polls to 33%. More than 21% of respondents said they have still not made a decision. While the BJT came fourth in the poll, with 13.24%, slightly lower than Pheu Thai, which gained 13.96%, such a narrow gap between the two parties — arch-rivals sharing the same political base — is unprecedented.

And while the BJT has never performed that well in previous opinion surveys, it came third in the 2024 election, given its extensive network and political resources.

Meanwhile, the outcome of the by-election in Si Sa Ket province confirms the rise in the BJT’s strength. Support for Pheu Thai, the incumbent, remains undiminished, as it gained some 30,000 votes. However, the BJT performed much better, sweeping over 40,000 votes — an increase of almost 10,000 votes from the previous election.

One additional seat from the Si Sa Ket by-election may not make much difference in terms of government stability, but the BJT’s victory has shaken Pheu Thai’s confidence.

Pheu Thai MPs in the northeastern region who are thinking about leaving the party will be able to make a decision more easily, either to join the BJT or the Klatham Party under Thamanat Prompow’s command.

Evidently, all major parties, such as the United Thai Nation (UTN) and Palang Pracharat (PPRP), are experiencing losses as several factions under their umbrella are approaching, or even joining, the BJT. For instance, Suchart Chomklin, who led his Group of 16 out of the PPRP, was appointed as a deputy prime minister as well as minister of natural resources and the environment. Several other factions, including those led by Ekanat Promphan, as well as Santi Prompat, are following suit.

Several factions approaching the BJT enjoy the so-called ban yai status, referring to politicians with extensive networks, influence and resources. This gives the BJT the chance to grow even larger in the near future.

The BJT has adopted a set of populist policies, such as the co-payment plus scheme, as well as cheaper train fares, among others, as part of its “Big Quick Win” formula, citing the need for economic stimuli. Such policies could easily translate into more support when voters cast their ballots in a few months’ time. Moreover, the party’s idea of holding a referendum for the cancellation of two MoUs with Cambodia is seen as a tactic for political gain through ultranationalism as well.

It’s very likely the BJT will polish its image, presenting itself as a high-quality party, not just a ban yai party with influential networks. It will have to take this opportunity to introduce a myriad of flagship policies, particularly a strong economic development package, for the next election in order to secure a bigger victory, thus fulfilling its political ambitions.

Meanwhile, Mr Anutin must maintain a balance and not overuse taxpayers’ money on unjustifiable populism. Rather, he must present himself as a politician with a sense of professionalism. Besides, he has to avoid interfering in the investigative process regarding the notorious Khao Kradong land seizure case and alleged fraud during the Senate election. If not, any missteps could become a deathtrap for him and his party.