How domestic borrowing is reshaping Tanzania’s economy

In the previous article, I argued that Tanzania’s debt debate cannot be understood simply by looking at debt-to-GDP ratios alone.

While the country’s public debt remains technically within international sustainability thresholds, the more troubling issue is the growing share of government revenue now devoted to debt servicing.

Yet behind the debate over external borrowing lies another quieter but equally important development: the rapid rise of domestic debt and its growing influence on the structure of Tanzania’s economy.

Public discussion on debt often focuses on foreign lenders, international financial institutions and external obligations denominated in dollars or other foreign currencies.

However, government borrowing within the domestic economy has expanded rapidly in recent years through Treasury bills and Treasury bonds purchased mainly by commercial banks, pension funds, insurance companies and other financial institutions.

Today, Tanzania’s domestic debt is estimated at well over Sh38 trillion and continues to grow steadily. Treasury bonds now account for the overwhelming majority of domestic government borrowing.

This trend may appear less alarming than external debt because the government is borrowing largely from Tanzanian institutions using local currency rather than relying entirely on foreign creditors.

At first sight, domestic borrowing appears safer and even more patriotic. Governments mobilise local savings for national development, reduce exposure to exchange-rate risks and avoid excessive dependence on foreign lenders.

In moderation, domestic borrowing is indeed an important and legitimate financing tool.

The danger arises when domestic borrowing grows so rapidly that it begins reshaping the entire economy.

The most important issue is what economists call ‘crowding out’. Every economy has limited financial resources available for lending and investment. When government increasingly borrows from banks and financial institutions, those institutions often prefer purchasing government securities rather than lending to private businesses, manufacturers, farmers or entrepreneurs.

From the perspective of banks, this behaviour is understandable. Government securities are generally considered safe, profitable and predictable. Lending to small businesses, agricultural producers or industrial start-ups carries higher risks and administrative costs.

As government borrowing expands, financial institutions therefore allocate more capital toward Treasury bonds and less toward productive private-sector activity.

The consequences for economic transformation can become serious over time.

Industrialisation depends on credit. Farmers require financing for irrigation, mechanisation and storage facilities. Manufacturers require capital for machinery, expansion and technological upgrading.

Young entrepreneurs require affordable loans to establish businesses and create employment. When increasing amounts of domestic capital are absorbed by government borrowing, productive sectors may struggle to access affordable financing.

In effect, government begins competing directly with the private sector for scarce domestic savings.

This issue is particularly important for Tanzania because long-term industrial transformation cannot occur without a dynamic private sector.

Economic growth driven mainly by public expenditure and debt-financed infrastructure eventually requires productive private investment capable of generating exports, employment, tax revenues and innovation.

Another important dimension concerns pension funds. Large pension institutions now hold substantial amounts of government securities because Treasury bonds provide relatively stable returns.

On the surface, this appears reasonable and is common internationally. Pension funds everywhere invest part of their portfolios in sovereign debt.

However, excessive dependence on pension financing creates its own risks.

Pension funds manage the lifetime savings of workers and retirees. If governments become increasingly dependent on pension institutions as continuous sources of financing, concerns may eventually arise about concentration of risk and long-term sustainability. Future pension obligations ultimately depend on the strength of the broader economy itself.

Domestic borrowing also affects interest rates across the economy. As government demand for financing rises, Treasury yields may increase in order to attract investors.

Higher government borrowing costs can then push up commercial lending rates for businesses and households. Private investment slows, production costs rise and economic dynamism weakens.

This is why domestic debt deserves much greater public attention than it currently receives.

Unlike external debt, domestic borrowing often appears politically less controversial because repayment occurs internally. Yet excessive domestic borrowing can quietly weaken the productive foundations of the economy itself.

An economy where banks increasingly finance government consumption rather than productive enterprise may remain fiscally stable in the short term while gradually undermining future growth potential.

The question is not whether domestic borrowing should exist. All modern economies use domestic debt markets. The real issue is whether borrowing supports productive transformation or merely sustains expanding fiscal obligations.

This distinction becomes especially important when debt servicing itself continues to rise. If growing portions of government revenue are increasingly devoted to repayment obligations while private-sector expansion slows, governments may eventually face the difficult choice between higher taxation, reduced social spending or even more borrowing.

Tanzania still possesses enormous economic potential. The country has strategic geographic advantages, abundant natural resources, a growing population and significant opportunities for industrial and agricultural expansion. Domestic borrowing can contribute positively to this transformation if carefully managed and directed toward productive investment.

But borrowing alone does not create prosperity. Sustainable development ultimately depends on whether debt strengthens the productive capacity of the economy or gradually weakens it through excessive fiscal dependence and reduced private-sector dynamism.

Domestic borrowing can therefore either support national transformation or quietly constrain it.

The outcome depends on discipline, transparency, investment quality and long-term economic planning.

Next week I will analyse a more sustainable borrowing strategy grounded in productivity, accountability, industrial growth and intergenerational responsibility.

Why Tanzania’s elephant population has declined sharply over the past two decades

Tanzania, once among Africa’s leading elephant strongholds, has recorded a sharp decline in its elephant population over the past 20 years, according to the new findings of the National Wildlife Census 2024/2025.

The census shows that elephant numbers have fallen from more than 134,000 in 2005 to 66,714 currently, reflecting long-term pressure from poaching and human-driven environmental change.

Budget: MPs call for asset recovery, spending cuts to boost execution

Lawmakers have called for tighter fiscal discipline, stronger domestic revenue systems and structural reforms to improve implementation of the Sh62.3 trillion national budget.

During parliamentary budget debates yesterday, MPs said the government must close gaps in revenue collection, reduce reliance on external borrowing and improve efficiency in public spending.

Simba seize top spot as Mpanzu strike downs Mbeya City

A first-half goal by Ellie Mpanzu was enough to propel Simba SC to the top of the Mainland Tanzania Premier League after a narrow 1-0 victory over Mbeya City at Sokoine Stadium on June 17, 2026.

Mpanzu struck in the 44th minute, finishing off a well-weighted assist from Clatous Chama, to secure a vital three points for the Msimbazi giants.

The win lifts Simba to 64 points from 27 matches, allowing them to leapfrog their traditional rivals, Young Africans (Yanga), in a tightly contested title race entering the final stretch of the season. Yanga, who had been leading the standings, now drop to second place with 63 points from 26 matches.

However, the reigning champions still hold a game in hand and have the opportunity to reclaim top position if they defeat Fountain Gate FC today at Sheikh Amri Abeid Stadium in Arusha.

Kick-off is scheduled for 4pm in a fixture expected to significantly shape the title race.

Mbeya City remain in 14th place with 25 points from 27 matches, continuing their struggle in the lower half of the table as they fight to avoid relegation with only a few games remaining.

The Mainland Tanzania Premier League action continues tomorrow, June 18, 2026, when Yanga face Fountain Gate FC at the same venue in Arusha in a match carrying major implications at both ends of the table.

Social funds target informal sector and industrial growth

Tanzania’s social security funds are intensifying efforts to extend coverage to millions of self-employed workers while investing in manufacturing projects aimed at driving industrialisation, job creation and economic growth.

Members of Parliament have highlighted the role of the National Social Security Fund (NSSF) and the Public Service Social Security Fund (PSSSF) in expanding social protection and supporting productive sectors through strategic investments.

Lawmakers said at a seminar on Monday, June 15, 2026 that NSSF’s Social Security Scheme for the Self-Employed presents an opportunity for millions of Tanzanians in the informal sector to access social protection services and strengthen long-term financial security. They also pointed to PSSSF’s investment in the Kilimanjaro International Leather Industries Company Limited (KLICL), saying the project is contributing to value addition in the livestock sector, industrialisation, employment creation and broader economic growth.

The remarks were made during a parliamentary seminar in Dodoma on the self-employed social security scheme and the KLICL leather manufacturing project.

Speaking on behalf of the Speaker of Parliament, Deputy Speaker Daniel Sillo said the seminar had equipped legislators with knowledge on social security programmes and development projects being implemented by the two funds.

He said the information would enable MPs to sensitise citizens in their constituencies to join social security schemes while improving public understanding of fund-backed investments.

Several MPs, including Said Salimu (Ole – CCM) and Rashid Shangazi (Mlalo – CCM), said extending coverage to self-employed Tanzanians would promote a savings culture, enhance income security and expand access to social protection.

On the KLICL project, MPs Jackson Kiswaga (Kalenga – CCM) and Rashid Shangazi called for increased private sector participation to strengthen production, marketing and competitiveness in the leather industry.

Minister of State in the Prime Minister’s Office (Labour, Employment and Industrial Relations), Deus Sangu, said the government remains committed to expanding social security coverage to self-employed citizens, who make up a significant share of the workforce.

He said this group had long remained outside formal social protection systems despite its major contribution to the economy. On the KLICL project, Mr Sangu said the factory is jointly owned by PSSSF and the Tanzania Prisons Service through its investment arm, Prisons Corporation Sole (PCS), adding that it has generated notable social and economic benefits.

Earlier, NSSF Director General Masha Mshomba said the fund aims to register 3.7 million self-employed Tanzanians by June 2031.

He said about 85 per cent of Tanzania’s workforce-equivalent to 20.98 million economically active citizens-is self-employed, making the initiative central to expanding social security coverage.

Members of the scheme are entitled to old-age pensions, survivors’ benefits, disability benefits, maternity benefits and healthcare support.

Mr Mshomba added that citizens can register, contribute and access account information through digital platforms using mobile phones, with a minimum monthly contribution of Sh30,000.

PSSSF Director General Fortunatus Magambo said KLICL has grown into a leading producer of leather products while supporting socio-economic development.

He said the factory has created jobs, improved incomes for livestock keepers through a reliable market for hides and skins, and strengthened Tanzania’s livestock value chain.

2026/27 budget: First test of Dira 2050 strategy

Tanzania’s Sh62.3 trillion national budget for the 2026/27 financial year is being seen by economists as the first major test of the country’s newly launched Development Vision 2050 (Dira 2050), with analysts saying its priorities largely align with the long-term ambition of transforming the economy into an industrialised, knowledge-based upper-middle-income nation.

The budget, the first to be prepared under Dira 2050, targets domestic revenue mobilisation, completion of major infrastructure projects, digital transformation, expansion of productive sectors and improvements in the business environment. It also projects economic growth of 6.3 percent, inflation of between three and five percent, and a budget deficit below three percent of GDP.

Research on Poverty Alleviation (REPOA) Executive Director Dr Donald Mmari said the budget reflects a clear shift towards structural transformation. ‘The emphasis on infrastructure, energy and domestic revenue mobilisation is fully consistent with the transformation agenda outlined in Dira 2050. These are the foundations required to build a more productive and competitive economy,’ he said.

Dr Mmari said the significance of the budget lies in its attempt to translate long-term ambitions into annual policy actions, but warned that implementation will be decisive.

‘The vision is clear and the budget reflects many of its priorities. The challenge is whether investments will translate into productivity gains, stronger value chains and better livelihoods for Tanzanians,’ he said.

Economist Mr Samson Rutashobya of the University of Iringa said the budget’s focus on industrialisation and private sector participation also mirrors the vision’s core goals.

‘One of the central objectives of Dira 2050 is to build a competitive economy driven increasingly by investment, innovation and private enterprise,’ he said.

He noted that investment in transport, energy and manufacturing would be critical for structural transformation.

For Ardhi University economist Ms Jasmine Christian, the strongest alignment lies in digital transformation.

‘Dira 2050 recognises that future competitiveness will depend heavily on technology and innovation. The budget’s focus on ICT systems, digital public services and technology-driven revenue administration reflects that understanding,’ she said.

She added that the expansion of digital systems and artificial intelligence in public revenue collection signals a shift towards a more efficient and modern economy.

Mr Alfred Kiariga said the budget also reflects the vision’s emphasis on building a skilled workforce.

‘The vision places considerable importance on education, skills and innovation. Continued investment in education, vocational training and youth empowerment shows that the government understands the importance of human capital,’ he said.

However, he cautioned that the quality of skills development would matter more than the scale of investment.

Another economist from Mbeya University of Science and Technology, Ms Pauline Mwaka, said the budget’s focus on youth, women and productive sectors supports Dira 2050’s inclusive growth agenda.

‘The vision is not only about economic growth but also about ensuring that growth creates opportunities for different groups and regions,’ she said.

She added that the budget provides an early indication of direction, but sustained implementation will determine whether the vision is achieved.

‘Achieving the vision will require long-term consistency, but this budget shows the country is moving in the right direction,’ she said.

Simba SC face acid test against Mbeya City in crucial title race

The Mainland Tanzania Premier League continues today with one of its heavyweight sides, Simba SC, travelling away to face Mbeya City at Sokoine Stadium in Mbeya.

The match, scheduled to kick off at 2pm, arrives at a decisive moment in the season, with both the title race and relegation battle intensifying.

Simba carry the pressure of expectation as they chase a strong finish, sitting second with 61 points from 26 matches, just two points behind leaders Young Africans (Yanga), who have 63 points from the same number of games. A win today would take Simba to 64 points and push them to the summit of the standings, piling pressure on their title rivals

This scenario sets up a critical test in Simba’s campaign. With the season entering its final stretch, every point is now crucial.

Simba have been impressive overall, scoring 47 goals and conceding just 11, a record that highlights their defensive strength and attacking efficiency.

However, their consistency in demanding away fixtures has occasionally been questioned, and this remains an area they must improve if they are to seize control of the title race. Mbeya City, meanwhile, arrive with a completely different objective.

Their focus is survival. They sit 14th with 25 points after 26 matches, dangerously close to the relegation zone. Their goal difference of minus 18 reflects a difficult season, having scored 21 goals and conceded 39, exposing defensive vulnerabilities that have repeatedly cost them results.

Despite their struggles, Mbeya City will view this fixture as a chance to fight back in front of their home supporters.

Teams battling relegation often raise their performance levels in such high pressure matches. Against a strong Simba side, they are expected to adopt a compact, disciplined approach, prioritising defensive organisation while seeking opportunities on the counterattack. Even a single point would be significant in their fight for survival.

For Simba, the challenge is both mental and tactical. Dropping points could allow Young Africans SC to extend their lead at the top, while victory would place Simba in full control of the title race. Their ability to manage pressure, break down low blocks, and remain patient in attack will be decisive in determining the outcome.

Elsewhere in the league, Singida Black Stars, currently fourth with 44 points, face Dodoma Jiji in another important fixture. Singida Black Stars have been defensively solid this season, conceding only 28 goals, and a win would strengthen their push for potential continental qualification.

Dodoma Jiji, positioned mid table, will also be eager to finish the season strongly and improve their consistency.

As the league enters its decisive phase, today’s fixtures carry significant implications across the table.

Simba are chasing the title, Mbeya City are fighting for survival, and Singida Black Stars are pushing for continental ambition. The results could go a long way in shaping the final standings of the season.

TSA encouraged by growing talent pool after landmark Championship

The successful staging of the 10th Tanzania National Junior Swimming Championship has reinforced growing optimism within the Tanzania Swimming Association (TSA) that the country is steadily building a stronger foundation for the future of the sport.

Held at the International School of Tanganyika (IST) in Masaki, the two-day championship attracted a record 410 swimmers from 22 clubs drawn from Tanzania, Kenya and Zambia. The event, organised by TSA in collaboration with Africa Aquatics and World Aquatics, has become one of the country’s most important platforms for identifying and developing future swimming stars.

For TSA Technical Director Amina Mfaume, the championship represented much more than a competition for medals and trophies. It offered tangible evidence that swimming is expanding rapidly across Tanzania and that investments in grassroots development are beginning to yield positive results. One of the most encouraging signs was the overwhelming participation of local swimmers. Out of the 410 competitors, only 53 came from outside Tanzania, meaning more than 350 swimmers represented Tanzanian clubs. The figure marks a significant increase from previous editions, where participation rarely exceeded 250 swimmers, highlighting the growing popularity of the sport among young athletes.

“We have seen remarkable improvement from many swimmers. The performances displayed during the championship give us confidence that swimming development in Tanzania is progressing well,” said Mfaume.

She noted that TSA’s next focus will be enhancing coaching standards in line with World Aquatics requirements to ensure athletes receive modern training methods capable of producing internationally competitive swimmers.

The growing stature of the championship was further reflected in the increasing number of international participants. Clubs from Kenya and Zambia travelled to Dar es Salaam, raising the level of competition and providing valuable regional exposure for local swimmers.

Among the foreign teams were Zambia’s Aquatics Riders Swim Club, Kalene Swim Club, Lechwe Swimming Club, Ndola Rapids Swim Club and Orcas Swim Club, alongside Kenya’s Bandari Swim Club, which eventually emerged as the overall champion.

TSA Secretary General Inviolata Itatiro said the championship continues to serve as a crucial pathway for young swimmers aiming to reach higher levels of competition.

“This championship is an important platform for talent identification and development. It gives young swimmers an opportunity to compete at a high level while preparing them for future regional and international competitions,” she said.

The championship featured 84 events across various age categories and attracted swimmers from some of Tanzania’s leading clubs, including Bluefins Swim Club, Braeburn Sharks, Champion Rise Swim Club, Dar Swim Club, FK Blue Marlins, Lake Victoria Sports Club, Malaika Aqua Eagles, Milestones Swimming Club, Monti Aqua Force, Mwanza Swim Club, North Coast Swimming Club, Pigec Swimming Club, Premier Swim Club, Riptide Swim Club, Taliss-IST and Wahoo Swim Club-ISZ. The competition also highlighted the growing depth of talent within Tanzania’s swimming fraternity.

Kenya’s Bandari Swim Club topped the medal standings with 38 medals. However, Tanzania’s North Coast Swimming Club emerged as one of the biggest success stories after finishing second overall with 27 medals.

Notably, North Coast matched Bandari’s tally of 17 gold medals but narrowly missed the overall title due to the Kenyan club’s superior collection of silver and bronze medals.

The achievement was particularly impressive for North Coast, a club established only two years ago. The Dar es Salaam-based outfit also finished joint second in the overall points standings alongside Mwanza Swim Club with 119 points, just five behind champions Bandari.

North Coast dominated the girls’ category with 92 points, underlining the growing quality of female swimmers in Tanzania. Meanwhile, Mwanza Swim Club once again showcased its strength by finishing third overall and topping the boys’ category with 118 points.

The performances of North Coast and Mwanza reflect the emergence of healthy competition among Tanzanian clubs, a key ingredient in raising national standards and producing elite athletes.

The success of the championship was made possible through support from several stakeholders, including Clyde and Co Genesis Sports Ltd, Pepsi, RM, IST, Kilombero Sugar, Jusfit Sports Gear and G1 Security.

With participation numbers rising, regional competition intensifying and young swimmers continuing to improve, TSA believes Tanzanian swimming is entering a promising phase.

If the momentum generated by this year’s championship is sustained through improved coaching, stronger club structures and continued stakeholder support, the country could soon produce a new generation of swimmers capable of excelling at regional, continental and global competitions.

High Court upholds bank’s right to recover Sh7.4 billion from Hans Poppe estate assets

The High Court, Commercial Division in Dar es Salaam, has dismissed an application by ZH Poppe Limited and the administrators of the estate of the late businessman Zacharia Hans Poppe seeking to temporarily stop Tanzania Commercial Bank (TCB) from auctioning assets pledged as security for a loan exceeding Sh7.4 billion.

The application, filed under case number 11792/2026, was brought by administrators of the deceased’s estate, Ms Angel Zacharia and Mr Abel Zacharia, together with ZH Poppe Limited, against TCB, the Attorney General, and the Solicitor General.