The Federal Government has for the first time given a detailed plan of how it intends to grow Nigeria’s economy from about $290 billion in 2025 to $1.027 trillion by 2030 create nearly six million jobs annually and reduce the poverty rate from 63 per cent to 25 per cent under its new national development plan.
The targets were contained in a presentation by the Minister of State for Budget and Economic Planning Dr Doris Uzoka-Anite setting out how President Bola Tinubu’s administration intends to achieve its $1 trillion economy ambition by 2030.
The presentation is the first detailed account of how the administration plans to pursue the target explaining the economic growth rates investment levels revenue improvements job creation and poverty-reduction measures expected to support the plan.
Under the projections the government expects annual real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to rise from 3.87 per cent to 10.34 per cent by 2030. Gross capital formation which measures investment in productive assets such as machinery factories and infrastructure is expected to increase from 29 per cent to 40 per cent of GDP.
The plan also aims to raise government revenue from 11.15 per cent to 18.7 per cent of GDP and increase the annual number of jobs created from 3.14 million to 5.93 million.
These targets are part of the National Development Plan 2026-2030 which aims to translate the administration’s Renewed Hope Agenda into measurable economic and social outcomes over the next five years.
A major part of the government’s strategy is to mobilise more private investment as public funds alone cannot provide the financing needed to achieve the envisaged scale of growth.
To address this challenge the administration plans to establish a national development finance and capital mobilisation platform that will connect investors with properly prepared and commercially viable projects across the country.
The proposed platform is expected to bring together pension funds insurance companies domestic and foreign investors development finance institutions and other sources of long-term capital.
The government believes the arrangement will help close the gap between the large amounts of money available for investment and the shortage of projects that are sufficiently prepared to attract such funds.
Many development projects particularly those proposed by government institutions and subnational authorities struggle to secure financing because their preparation is incomplete their commercial structure is weak or their expected returns and risks are not clearly defined.
The proposed platform is intended to address these problems by helping project promoters prepare viable proposals structure financing arrangements and attract investors.
It will also seek to address the fragmentation of projects across different levels of government. Rather than leaving small projects scattered across states and local governments to compete individually for financing the platform could help them access investment opportunities that attract larger pools of capital.
The plan envisages support from development finance institutions and partners through guarantees risk-sharing arrangements blended finance and concessional funding. Such measures could reduce some of the risks private investors face and make projects more attractive for long-term investment.
The government’s approach is built on preparing projects properly structuring them to meet investors’ requirements and mobilising the money needed to deliver them.
The strategy reflects the administration’s position that achieving a $1 trillion economy will require much more than government spending. Private businesses and investors will have to finance a substantial share of the factories infrastructure technology and other productive assets needed to expand the economy.
The development plan places greater industrial production economic diversification and job creation at the centre of the government’s growth ambitions.
Manufacturing currently accounts for about 8.47 per cent of GDP under the plan’s baseline figures. The government wants to increase this contribution to between 10.2 per cent and 15 per cent by 2030.
Achieving this will require stronger domestic production better access to finance more reliable electricity and improved transport and logistics infrastructure. It will also depend on businesses being able to obtain the raw materials technology and skilled workers needed to expand production.
The government intends to support agriculture and its value chains manufacturing micro small and medium-sized enterprises exports and other productive sectors that can create jobs and generate income.
Increasing domestic processing and production is expected to reduce dependence on imported goods strengthen local industries and create more opportunities for Nigerian businesses to supply both domestic and foreign markets.
The plan also seeks to expand non-oil exports and reduce the economy’s dependence on crude oil. Greater value addition in agriculture energy and other sectors is expected to broaden sources of national income and make the economy less vulnerable to external shocks.
The revenue target is another major part of the strategy. The government wants revenue to rise from 11.15 per cent of GDP to 18.7 per cent by 2030 providing more resources to finance public services and development projects.
However the plan’s success will depend not only on raising revenue but also on how effectively the money is spent. The administration wants government budgets and spending to be more closely linked to projects that improve productivity expand economic activity and deliver measurable results.
Beyond the size of the economy the government has set targets to improve Nigerians’ living conditions.
The plan seeks to reduce poverty from an estimated 63 per cent to 25 per cent by 2030. It also targets increasing adult financial inclusion from 74 per cent to 83 per cent.
The poverty target will require economic expansion to translate into more employment higher household incomes and better access to essential services. Growth in the national GDP alone would not necessarily deliver these benefits if the gains were concentrated in a few sectors or among a limited number of people.
The government therefore intends to link economic development with investment in human capital social protection improved public services and more productive employment.
Agriculture manufacturing small businesses and other labour-intensive sectors are expected to play an important role in creating opportunities for Nigerians particularly young people entering the workforce.
The plan also recognises the importance of financial inclusion in helping households and businesses access formal financial services. Better access to financial services can support savings payments and business activities but wider inclusion must be matched with affordable useful financial products.
The government is also seeking to improve electricity supply transport logistics housing and digital connectivity. These are seen as essential to reducing the cost of doing business supporting private investment and improving access to economic opportunities.
The National Development Plan 2026-2030 is organised around seven broad pillars intended to guide policy decisions and public investment.
They cover macroeconomic stability and sustainable financing; oil gas and energy security; economic diversification productivity and competitiveness; productive infrastructure and environmental resilience; governance and public-sector transformation; peace security and national resilience; and human capital social development and inclusive growth.
Together the pillars provide a common framework for ministries departments and agencies state governments and other development partners.
The plan also includes the Renewed Hope Ward-Based Development Programme which is designed to bring national development priorities closer to communities. It draws on work across 8809 wards nationwide to identify local economic conditions infrastructure gaps and development needs.
The ward-based approach aims to make development planning more responsive to on-the-ground conditions rather than relying only on broad national priorities.
The government expects the programme to help identify projects that can improve local infrastructure support economic activity and address community needs. Its effectiveness will depend on how well budgets incorporate the identified priorities and funds and implement them.
The plan is linked to Nigeria Agenda 2050 the country’s longer-term development blueprint while the 2026-2030 document provides a medium-term framework for translating that ambition into policies programmes and projects.
The administration has also acknowledged that the previous National Development Plan covering 2021 to 2025 exposed weaknesses in the way development priorities were financed and implemented.
The experience showed that identifying key projects and setting development goals would not be enough without credible funding arrangements clear institutional responsibilities and stronger coordination across government levels.
The new plan is therefore expected to focus more on project preparation financing implementation schedules and measurable results.
Each major priority is expected to have a responsible institution a clear baseline against which progress can be measured implementation milestones and an identified source of funding.
The plan is also intended to be linked more closely to the government’s Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and annual budgets. This is meant to strengthen the link between development promises and the allocation and release of public funds.
The government wants ministries and agencies to demonstrate how their spending contributes to agreed national objectives. Monitoring and periodic performance reviews are expected to help identify projects that are falling behind schedule and problems that require corrective action.
The approach aims to reduce the gap between development plans and what citizens ultimately receive.
The plan also places responsibility on state and local governments to support national objectives through local development programmes while private businesses are expected to invest in productive activities and create jobs.
Development partners are expected to provide financing technical assistance and support to build institutional capacity.
In presenting the plan Uzoka-Anite linked the administration’s development ambitions to the economic reforms Tinubu introduced since taking office.
The administration has defended difficult decisions including removing the petrol subsidy as necessary steps to correct economic distortions and improve the country’s public finances.
The government’s challenge now is to ensure that the reforms translate into higher investment stronger industrial production more jobs and better living conditions.
The $1 trillion ambition will require the economy to expand substantially over the plan’s period. That makes the proposed investment increase particularly important as factories infrastructure energy supply and other productive assets will be needed to support higher output.
The administration is also seeking to improve the way public and private capital work together with the proposed capital mobilisation platform expected to play a central role in bringing more investment into bankable projects.
However achieving the targets will depend on whether the government can attract sufficient long-term capital remove major obstacles facing businesses improve the performance of public institutions and ensure that projects are completed as planned.
The targets for economic growth jobs revenue manufacturing and poverty reduction are closely connected. Faster growth will need productive investment to support it and the benefits of that investment will need to reach households through employment income and improved services.
The government’s development plan therefore sets out an ambitious programme that goes beyond increasing GDP. It seeks to change how projects are financed and delivered expand the role of private investment improve domestic production and ensure economic growth delivers more visible benefits for Nigerians.
The test will be whether the policies and financing arrangements outlined in the presentation can translate into funded projects stronger businesses sustained job creation and a measurable reduction in poverty before the 2030 deadline.