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Bimbo Roberts Folayan, convenor of the Nigerian Diaspora Direct Investment Summit (NDDIS), has revealed philanthropic funders offered deals ranging from $1 million to $500 million in grants for small businesses and state-led projects at the last diaspora summit in March.

He noted this recently in a video interview, where he highlighted that NDDIS has played a key role in encouraging Nigerians abroad to establish businesses back home, as remittances totalled over $20.9 billion in 2023, (nearly four times) Nigeria’s foreign direct investment.

He however expressed frustration at the slow response from Nigerian states. ‘Since we started, we’ve mobilised and encouraged many diasporans to set up businesses in Nigeria,’ he noted. ‘They’re taking new technologies, ideas, and business models back home. It’s been very successful, but the government still doesn’t fully understand the importance of this.’

‘It took us so much to convince some states to bring forward projects; this is free money,’ he said. ‘We managed to get Bauchi and Katsina States involved, and we’re hoping to mobilise a minimum of $200 million into Nigeria before the end of the year.’

Folayan, also regarded as a repected elder statesman within the UK-based Nigerian community described the diaspora community as ‘a powerful bridge to investors’ ,and urged the government to deepen its collaboration with citizens living overseas.

He strongly believes that the Nigerian diaspora has a critical role in driving economic growth and attracting investment into the country.

On diaspora engagement and foreign investment

Folayan also emphasised that diaspora engagement and foreign investment represents an untapped resource for development.

‘The government in Nigeria needs to engage more with the diaspora because of the power that the diaspora holds,’ he said. ‘When you look at the economic situation and what the diaspora has been doing for years setting up initiatives, returning with new ideas and technologies this is where the real investors are.

He added that initiatives like the NDDIS have helped change the government’s mindset towards viewing the diaspora as an extra resourcs for nation-building. ‘We are like children abroad; you don’t need to do much, you just need to engage and connect us with what you want for Nigeria,’ he explained.

On the absence of ambassadors and diplomatic engagement

Folayan criticised the prolonged delay in appointing Nigerian ambassadors and high commissioners, describing it as a major gap in the country’s foreign engagement.

‘It’s very confusing even the High Commission doesn’t understand why,’ he lamented. ‘It shows that the government doesn’t fully grasp the importance of foreign engagement. There’s a huge disconnect between our missions, the community, and investors.’

He stressed that without substantive ambassadors in place, ongoing diaspora investment efforts risk losing momentum.

‘Unless proper ambassadors are appointed before the end of the year, much of the work people like us are doing will not amount to much,’ he warned.

Reflecting on the administration’s economic reforms, Folayan acknowledged that the reforms are long-term in nature, but immediate relief is needed through local governments and stronger diaspora collaboration.

He called for men and women within the diaspora to work directly with the government to support implementation and monitoring, and reaffirmed his commitment to fostering stronger diaspora participation in Nigeria’s development.

‘The diaspora is the engine of growth,’ he said. ‘When properly engaged, we can help drive investment, innovation and positive change for our country.’

Renaissance Africa Energy Company Limited, operator of Nigeria’s largest upstream oil and gas joint venture, has unveiled its pan-African operational strategy at the just concluded Africa Energy Week (AEW), signalling a new phase of regional expansion and leadership in the energy sector.

Speaking during a dedicated session at the conference, Tony Attah, the company’s Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, described Renaissance as a transformational force in Africa’s energy landscape.

‘We are Renaissance, not just in name, but in purpose,’ Attah said. ‘Our ambition is to catalyse a new beginning for Africa, one that delivers energy security and industrialisation through sustainable practices.’

Renaissance, formerly The Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited (SPDC), is a wholly owned subsidiary of Renaissance Africa Energy Holding Company, and operator of the NNPC/Renaissance/TotalEnergies/AENR Joint Venture with assets spread across 18 oil mining leases in Nigeria’s Niger Delta.

Attah described the acquisition of the shares of Shell in the former SPDC by Renaissance’s parent company, as a bold move. ‘Acquiring SPDC was seen as ambitious, but we executed it with clarity and conviction. Today, Renaissance stands as the new face of Africa’s energy.’

Speaking earlier on the sidelines of the AEW conference, Layi Fatona, Chairman of Renaissance, described the vision of the company as Afrocentric with a commitment to continental leadership.

‘Our vision is clear on becoming Africa’s leading energy company enabling energy security and industrialisation in a sustainable manner,’ Fatona said, adding: ‘We are not just out to participate in Africa’s energy future, we are out to shape it. Our strategy begins in Nigeria but is designed for scale across the continent.’

Foreign investors may think twice before picking Nigeria over other frontier markets when its 30 percent capital gains tax, the highest among its peers, takes effect in January 2026.

Through the introduction of the new capital gains tax, Nigeria could earn up to N1 trillion annually. But the move has already begun unsettling both investors and issuers.

Capital gains taxes apply when investments such as stocks, bonds, and digital assets are sold at a profit. Under the reform, Nigeria will introduce a rate of up to 30 percent on foreign equity investors, and 25 percent for reinvestments in local fixed-income or non-equity assets, the highest among frontier markets.

Victor Athe, partner, Tax and Strategy Services, said the policy could have unintended consequences.

‘Indeed, there is a risk that the tax hike may dampen foreign investor appetite, as higher CGT reduces investors’ net take on equity sales. Investors who are speculative or short-term-focused may have to sell off and lock in gains before the new rates take effect.

‘From a macroeconomic context, Nigeria is seeking to boost tax revenues amid fiscal pressures, currency reforms, and subsidy removals. A sharp pullback in foreign investments could undermine liquidity and increase volatility. The move fits into the government’s broader push to expand the non-oil tax base, but the risk is that it may send mixed signals to foreign investors at a time when the country is seeking foreign direct investments (FDIs) and portfolio inflows to support the naira and deepen financial markets,’ Athe said.

Bukola Bankole, partner and corporate finance expert at TNP, said the decision to raise capital gains tax on foreign equity investors to 30 percent ‘sends a strong fiscal message but risks unsettling the renewed confidence returning to the market.’

‘The NGX has gained momentum on improved sentiment and stronger corporate results, and this policy shift could interrupt that recovery,’ she said. ‘For offshore investors already contending with FX volatility and repatriation delays, the higher tax changes the post-return picture in a way that may slow new inflows.’

Bankole noted that at 30 percent, Nigeria would rank among the highest-taxed frontier markets.

‘For foreign portfolio investors, that matters, especially when comparable markets in Africa and Asia offer effective rates mostly between zero and 20 percent, alongside greater policy predictability. The issue isn’t the tax itself but its timing and the signal it sends. Investors make long-term decisions based on stability, and sudden changes like this tend to create hesitation just when confidence is improving.’

She added that the tax rise also runs counter to recent monetary signals. ‘The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)’s modest rate cut was seen as a shift toward supporting growth and credit expansion, while the tax hike tightens post-return yields. Without better alignment between fiscal and monetary policy, mixed messages like this risk dampening investor enthusiasm just as liquidity is returning.

‘In isolation, the hike may bring short-term revenue, but without broader reforms that strengthen FX stability and deepen market trust, it could end up costing more in lost confidence than it raises in tax. In Nigeria’s capital market, confidence remains the most valuable currency.’

Akinbamidele Akintola, chief commercial officer at retail tech firm Alerzo, questioned the logic of the move. ‘Will foreign portfolio investors be forced to pay this tax? If they are, then Nigeria just made itself even less attractive compared to every other frontier market out there,’ he said. ‘Imagine a foreign investor weighing where to park capital: on one side, Kenya exempts listed equities from capital gains tax altogether; on the other, Nigeria now imposes a 25 percent haircut at the exit door. Why would you choose Nigeria?’

Akintola, a former head of sub-Saharan Africa equity and fixed income sales at Stanbic IBTC, warned that the implications could be severe. ‘Foreign participation will fall. Liquidity will dry up. Bid-ask spreads will widen. Valuations will compress. Long-term holders will be punished because inflation isn’t recognised in the cost base. And the overall perception of Nigeria as a place to invest will slide even further.’

He suggested that the government consider ‘smarter ways’ to achieve its revenue goals. ‘If the government really wants to deepen the equity market, there are better tools. Incentivise long-term holding by offering tax credits or reward reinvestment into priority sectors. Give pension funds and asset managers clearer rules on equity allocation. Strengthen the regulatory framework so investors feel protected. In short, use carrots, not sticks. Right now, Nigeria needs every drop of foreign and local capital it can get. Putting up a 25 percent barrier at the exit door is the exact opposite of what we should be doing.’

At the 31st Nigerian Economic Summit (NES #31), Abubakar Atiku Bagudu, minister of Budget and Economic Planning, acknowledged the need for stability and coherence in policymaking. ‘The government recognises the need for stable policies, consistent regulations, and an improved business environment to boost investor confidence and reduce uncertainty,’ he said.

Bagudu noted that the administration is working to streamline regulatory frameworks and enhance predictability. ‘Our policy responses in the fiscal sector, as outlined in the Four Tax Reform Acts, are aimed at strengthening revenue mobilisation for sustainable growth. We have been prioritising monetary and fiscal coordination to stabilise macroeconomic parameters. Our revenue diversification strategy includes boosting non-oil revenue, supporting manufacturing, and driving digital transformation,’ he said.

Despite government reassurances, market participants remain cautious. With the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) up about 40 percent this year, analysts warn that the new tax could moderate the rally through short-term sell-offs.

Temi Popoola, group managing director and chief executive officer of NGX Group, said: ‘Reforms of this scale raise important questions for issuers and investors alike. Our priority is to ensure the capital market remains attractive and forward-looking. By creating forums like this, we provide clarity, enable dialogue, and help the market adapt to fiscal changes in ways that support long-term growth.’

At the same event, Taiwo Oyedele, chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, said the reform was structured to protect retail investors, noting that a N150 million annual exemption threshold would exclude 99.9 percent of individual investors from the capital gains tax.

The Tax Reform Act is designed not to stifle investment but to create a fair, transparent, and sustainable tax environment,’ he said.

‘While the standard rate is 30 percent, a reduced 25 percent CGT will apply when proceeds from share sales are reinvested in fixed-income securities or other non-equity assets, whereas reinvestments into Nigerian companies, listed or unlisted, remain exempt. This is meant to channel more capital into productive equity that drives company growth, creates jobs, and supports long-term market sustainability.’

Oyedele, chairman of Nigeria’s Presidential Tax Reforms Committee that introduced the higher capital gains tax, dismissed complaints that it hurts foreign investors and argued that they can reclaim tax credits in their home countries.

‘We are challenging them to show us how it makes them worse off,’ Oyedele said, referring to the new law. ‘We know they are not worse off, they just want the better end of everything,’ he said, adding: ‘The country you pay the capital gain tax is where you earn it from. When you now go to your home country, they credit you.’

Foreign investors accounted for 21 percent of total transactions in the stock market in the eight months through August, with total trades of N1.45 trillion ($989 million), according to a monthly report prepared by the Lagos-based Nigerian Exchange Group Plc.

But foreign investors can only get credit for the amount paid in Nigeria ‘if there is a double taxation agreement between Nigeria and their country, and if it gives Nigeria a right to tax disposals of shares,’ said Russell Eastaugh, Africa tax lead at South Africa-based consultancy Regan van Rooy. ‘There is a significant risk that investors will now find investing in the stock market less attractive.’

The Super Eagles of Nigeria have reportedly arrived in Polokwane, South Africa, ahead of their crucial 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifier against Lesotho on Friday.

Head coach Eric Chelle and his technical staff settled in on Monday, as players began arriving from their respective clubs across Europe and Asia via Johannesburg.

Training will commence on Tuesday morning at the nearby New Peter Mokaba Stadium, the venue for Friday’s decisive Group C clash.

Nigeria will face Lesotho in Matchday 9 of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers on Friday, October 10, 2025, at the New Peter Mokaba Stadium in Polokwane.

Chelle has announced a 23-man squad for the double-header against Lesotho and Benin Republic, featuring star striker Victor Osimhen, winger Ademola Lookman, and 21 others.

The Super Eagles currently sit third in Group C with 11 points, trailing group leaders Benin Republic and South Africa by three points.

A victory in Polokwane is crucial to reigniting their qualification hopes for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which will be co-hosted by the United States, Canada, and Mexico.

The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) on Monday, arraigned Oguibe Nkwachukwu, an accountant, and his company, Wifamapp Royalty Global Limited, for allegedly stealing ?200 million belonging to his former employer, Travelstar Web Logistics Limited.

The defendants were brought before R.A. Oshodi, Justice of the Lagos State High Court, Ikeja, on a 13-count charge bordering on stealing and dishonest conversion of funds.

According to the EFCC, Nkwachukwu, while serving as an accountant at Travelstar Web Logistics Limited, allegedly diverted several sums of money entrusted to him by the company for personal use.

One of the counts stated that he ‘dishonestly converted to his own use the sum of $36,000, property of Travelstar Web Logistics Limited,’ in violation of Sections 280(1)(b), (2)(f), and 287 of the Criminal Law of Lagos State, 2015.

Another count alleged that between January and July 2018, he converted an additional $156,000 belonging to the same company while acting as its accountant.

Nkwachukwu pleaded not guilty to all charges when they were read to him.

Prosecution counsel, A.A. Usman, subsequently requested a trial date and urged the court to remand the defendant at a correctional facility pending trial.

However, defence counsel, Kelvin C. Uzozie, informed the court that a bail application had been filed on behalf of his client and prayed that he be held in the EFCC’s custody instead.

Oshodi adjourned the case until October 17, 2025, for a hearing on the bail application and ordered that the defendant be remanded at the Kirikiri Correctional Centre in Lagos.

Buba Marwa, Chairman/CEO of the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA), on Monday, charged stakeholders in the ongoing development of the next National Drug Control Master Plan (NDCMP 2026-2030) to incorporate strategies to address new and emerging threats to the elimination illicit drug trade in Nigeria.

Marwa gave the admonition in Niger state, at opening of a five-day workshop to develop the fifth National Drug Control Master Plan for the country.

Femi Babafemi, Director, Media and Advocacy, NDLEA, in a statement, said that the residential retreat, funded by the ECOWAS Commission with the support of the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC).

Marwa noted that, ‘The task before us over the next few days is both strategic and historic,’ adding that ‘drug problem continues to evolve, and so must our response.’

Drug trafficking in Nigeria has continued unabated despite the stiff measures put in place by the federal government.

As part of the measures, the NDLEA has embarked on high level sensitisation and public enlightenment, targeting schools at the primary levels.

According to him, ‘The NDCMP 2026-2030 must be visionary yet practical; comprehensive yet targeted; and nationally owned yet regionally and globally aligned.

‘It must build on the achievements of the past, while boldly addressing new and emerging threats, from synthetic drugs to dark-web trafficking, from poly-substance use to the illicit financial flows that sustain the drug trade.’

He reminded all the stakeholders that the workshop offers the rare opportunity to deliberate, analyse and agree on strategic priorities that will shape the trajectory of Nigeria’s response for the next five years.

‘It is here that we will identify what has worked, acknowledge the gaps, and design innovative pathways for the future’, he added.

He urged all participants to bring to bear their expertise, experience and commitment, adding that the workshop is not just about producing another document but about charting a collective vision to safeguard the health, security and wellbeing of Nigerians.

He reaffirmed the Agency’s readiness to provide leadership, coordination and technical support to ensure that the new Master Plan is not only developed but also effectively implemented.

‘I also pledge that we will continue to strengthen collaboration with our partners, both within Nigeria and across the ECOWAS sub-region, for we know that the drug challenge recognises no borders.’

He commended the ECOWAS Commission ‘for sponsoring this workshop, and all our partners – the European Union, UNODC, civil society organisations, professional bodies and the private sector – for their continued collaboration.

‘Together, we are shaping a future where Nigeria and West Africa will be safer, healthier and more secure.’

Speaking at the workshop, Cheikh Ousmane, the UNODC country representative, who was represented by Akanidomo Ibanga, commended Nigeria’s drug control efforts so far.

‘Yet, we are all aware that the drug situation continues to evolve. Global and regional dynamics – whether related to new psychoactive substances, organized crime networks, or the impact of conflict and economic pressures – all shape local realities. Our response must therefore be adaptive, coordinated, and inclusive.

‘The Master Plan is the instrument through which this can happen.

‘This workshop offers a unique opportunity to review the draft chapters, harmonize perspectives, and ensure that the priorities identified reflect both national realities and international standards, including those enshrined in the three international drug control conventions, the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, and the African Union Plan of Action on Drug Control’, he stated.

While commending the leadership of the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA) and the Federal Ministry of Health, as well as all members of the inter-agency working groups, for the dedication and expertise they bring to the process, he said that their work will serve as a compass for coordinated action over the coming years.

Also speaking during the opening ceremony of the workshop, Fatou Sow Sarr, ECOWAS Commission Commissioner for Human Development and Social Affairs, represented by Daniel Amankwaah noted that Nigeria, as a key stakeholder in regional drug control efforts, has taken proactive steps to develop national strategies aligned with international best practices.

‘The Nigeria’s current National Drug Control Master Plan (NDCMP) will expire this year and a new plan needs to be developed to address the emerging drug threats, trafficking patterns, and the increasing burden of substance use disorders. The new NDCMP will effectively respond to current and future drug-related challenges.

‘The ECOWAS Commission, in line with its mandate to support Member States in addressing drug-related issues, is providing technical and financial assistance to Nigeria in the elaboration of the new NDCMP. This initiative aligns with the objectives of the ECOWAS Drug Prevention and Control Programme and the broader regional efforts to strengthen drug demand and supply reduction mechanisms.

‘This support is a strategic step toward strengthening Nigeria’s drug control framework and aligning it with regional and international best practices.

He assured that ECOWAS Commission remains committed to supporting Nigeria in this effort, ensuring that the new National Drug Control Master Plan is robust, evidence-based, and effectively addresses the country’s drug-related challenges.

Other stakeholders who spoke at the ceremony include representatives of the Federal Ministries of Education, Health, Agriculture, Budget and Planning as well as NACA, NAFDAC, EFCC, and NFIU.

Pension fund managers under the umbrella body of the Pension Fund Operators Association of Nigeria (PenOp) have blamed lack of bankable projects to low investment in infrastructure.

They also blame tight regulation and risk aversion as reasons for low investment in infrastructure, according to the inaugural PenOp report on role of pension funds in infrastructure investment in Nigeria’s economy released weekend.

According to the report, another 50 percent of the fund managers also said their preference was investing in either power or transportation, while also expressing their preference to debt infrastructure as against equity infrastructure.

The report sponsored by Stanbic IBTC Infrastructure Fund underscores the importance of infrastructure investment for Nigeria’s economic growth and development, and outlies challenges and strategies for pension fund managers to engage more actively in infrastructure investment and diversify their portfolios for stable and long-term returns.

‘100 percent of the respondents outlined that they were either considering or actively looking for infrastructure investments to add to their portfolio, officers at PenOp who worked on the report also said.

This is as 55 percent believe infrastructure is the most attractive alternative assets class with more than half of pooled managers admitting they actively look for in structure investment opportunities.

Infrastructure investment in Nigeria according to the report is crucial due to its impact on economic growth and development, stating that the lack of adequate infrastructure have direct implications to businesses, poverty reduction, and overall economic prosperity.

The report therefore emphasises the need for investment diversification and notes that investing in infrastructure can provide long-term stable cash flows, inflation protection and essential services.

However the report suggest that credit enhancements, transparent project execution, tax incentives and the proliferation of bankable projects could catalyse pension fund capital into infrastructure.

‘While infrastructure bonds are favoured as a conduit for investment, infrastructure, listed equity is less preferred due to market volatility. ‘Power and transport sectors are preferred choices for infrastructure investment, while agriculture and healthcare also hold potential, but caution was thrown around telecommunication due to concerns about crowding out of investment, according to the report.

Dolu Olugbenjo, chief investment officer, Stanbic IBTC Infrastructure Fund, who spoke on the fund’s performance said it has done very in the first five years of operation.

‘Our average year-on-year return has been around 18 -19 percent, even with a dip in 2023, growing consistently above the benchmark we promised our investors.’

Olugbenjo said the fund has catalysed over N200 billion in projects and the companies it has supported are projected to generate over N500 billion in revenue by year-end.

‘We’ve shown PFAs that infrastructure can deliver strong, risk-adjusted returns, now we need them to seize the moment and allocate more capital.’

‘The deficits we’re addressing are enormous, so we need owners of long-term capital to step up and partner with us, Olubgenjo said.

He said whether its power, ports, healthcare, student housing, or transport, it is ready to curate the right transactions for institutional investors.’

On the potential of these investments, he said, ‘We need refurbished airports, modern transport, reliable energy, and student accommodation, and all of it must be paid for, so the outlook is positive, but it requires a long-term view on Nigeria, not a short-term mind-set.’

‘If we take the long view, the results will come. We’re building what the country urgently needs, one project at a time, the Stanbic IBTC Infrastructure Fund boss said.

Phoenix Steel Mills has revealed significant improvements in productivity, operational efficiency, and energy stability following its participation in the Eligible Customer Program of the Niger Delta Power Holding Company (NDPHC).

Through the program, Phoenix Steel Mills now enjoys direct access to a reliable electricity supply from NDPHC’s generation assets, drastically reducing its reliance on unstable grid supply and costly self-generation alternatives.

According to the company, this intervention has minimised power-related disruptions, reduced operational costs, and enhanced production output, positioning Phoenix Steel Mills to expand its capacity and strengthen its competitiveness in both domestic and international markets.

Speaking on the development, Jennifer Adighije, Managing Director/CEO of NDPHC, hailed Phoenix Steel Mills as a success story of the Eligible Customer Program and reaffirmed NDPHC’s commitment to deepening Nigeria’s industrial competitiveness.

‘The Eligible Customer framework is designed to strengthen Nigeria’s industrial growth by guaranteeing efficient, reliable, and affordable electricity directly from our plants to businesses.

‘Phoenix Steel Mills is a clear demonstration of how stable power translates into higher productivity, cost savings, and stronger value chains for the economy,’ Adighije said.

Phoenix Steel Mills Limited is a leading steel manufacturing company in Nigeria, producing high-quality steel products for domestic use and export. With a focus on innovation, efficiency, and sustainability, Phoenix Steel Mills continues to invest in technologies and partnerships that strengthen its role in Nigeria’s industrial growth and global competitiveness.

Escalating geopolitical tensions, piracy, and environmental threats are putting the world’s most vital maritime oil and gas routes under severe strain, posing a growing danger to global energy security.

Rystad Energy’s latest analysis, the world’s five key maritime chokepoints, narrow sea routes critical to the global flow of crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG), are becoming increasingly unstable.

In 2023, these chokepoints carried an estimated 71.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil and petroleum products and 26 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) of LNG. By 2024, the figures had fallen to 65 million bpd and 24.8 Bcfd, respectively, reflecting the impact of conflict and insecurity on global trade routes.

While part of the decline is due to temporary disruptions such as Houthi rebel attacks near Yemen and tensions between Iran and Israel, Rystad noted a deeper structural shift as vessels and cargoes are increasingly rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope and alternative pipelines.

The US, with its growing domestic production, remains less exposed than Asia and Europe, which rely heavily on the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca for transport, leaving China acutely vulnerable.

‘We have identified the five chokepoints most at risk, assessed the threats they face and outlined the far-reaching consequences for global energy markets,’ said Mrinal Bhardwaj, Senior Analyst, Upstream Research, Rystad Energy.

‘Any disruption at these chokepoints could shatter supply chains, trigger sharp spikes in energy prices and inflict severe economic damage worldwide.’

He added that insurance premiums and freight rates have already surged in response to the instability, warning that a full closure of any chokepoint could lead to extreme price volatility and test the resilience of global supply chains.

About three-fourths of the world’s oil trade passes through maritime chokepoints, with one-fourth via the Strait of Malacca and one-fifth through the Strait of Hormuz.

Strait of Malacca: Asia’s Energy Lifeline

The Strait of Malacca is the world’s largest trade chokepoint, handling approximately 24 million bpd of oil and gas. This narrow passage between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean is a critical corridor for transporting most of the Middle Eastern crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Asia, including major consumers China and Japan.

China accounts for the largest share of crude and condensate imports through this route, representing 50 percent of the total volume, while Saudi Arabia is the leading exporter, contributing with 25 percent of the share.

Since the pandemic, oil and gas flow through the Strait had increased by 2.1 million bpd as of 2024. Although the route is known for piracy and theft, no major incidents have been reported this year.

Strait of Hormuz: The World’s Most Critical Chokepoint

The Strait of Hormuz, situated between Iran to the north and Oman and the United Arab Emirates to the south, is particularly vital. Approximately one-fifth of the world’s maritime oil and condensate trade, along with nearly half of the Middle East’s daily oil and condensate production around 14 million bpd, passes through this narrow waterway to major Asian markets such as China and India.

To be more precise, about half of Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s daily oil and condensate exports, and roughly one-fourth of China’s daily oil and condensate demand, are shipped through the strait. It is also a key route for LNG, with about one-fifth of globally traded LNG volumes passing through it.

Qatar exports about two-thirds of its daily gas production, roughly 16.3 Bcfd, through the strait to countries including China, India and South Korea. In the past five years, China’s LNG imports via the Strait of Hormuz have increased by approximately 2.5 times, reaching 2.7 Bcfd.

‘The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz was underscored during the recent Iran-Israel conflict, when Iran’s parliament proposed a bill to close it, although the plan was reportedly deferred,’ said Bhardwaj.

According to him, if the strait were to be closed, it could disrupt nearly half of Middle Eastern oil exports, severely impacting global oil and gas transportation. ‘This would likely lead to a sharp increase in global oil prices and raise energy import costs for dependent nations, affecting the entire oil and gas supply chain.’

To reduce such risks, countries in the region have developed alternative oil transport routes. These include Saudi Arabia’s East West Crude Pipeline, which has a capacity of 5 million bpd, the UAE’s Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, with capacity of 1.8 million bpd, and Iran’s Goreh Jask pipeline, which provides an additional export route bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.

Suez Canal and Bab el-Mandeb: Red Sea Instability

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait has become the Middle East’s second major chokepoint and another potential threat to the stability of global oil and gas trade.

The narrow waterway connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea, serving as a critical route for ships transiting between the Suez Canal and the Indian Ocean.

Egypt’s Suez Canal, along with the 2.5 million bpd SUMED pipeline, link the Red Sea to the Mediterranean, forming a vital corridor for global energy flows.

Before a wave of Houthi attacks targeting commercial vessels and tankers in late 2023, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait accounted for around 12 percent of global seaborne oil trade.

However, the surge in attacks in December 2023 caused daily shipping volumes through the Strait to drop by nearly 50 percent within just six months. Traffic has remained below normal levels ever since.

A potential full closure of the strait would force vessels originating in the Gulf of Aden to bypass the Suez Canal entirely, redirecting them around the Cape of Good Hope. This detour significantly increases voyage times and freight costs, adding further pressure to already strained global energy supply chains.

Turkish Straits: Europe’s Strategic Crossroads

The Turkish Straits, a narrow and strategically critical maritime route connecting the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea, are key to global energy transportation.

Comprising the Bosporus and Dardanelles, the Turkish Straits handle around 3.5 million bpd of crude oil and 0.5 Bcfd of LNG, or about 5 percent of global maritime oil trade. The route is critical for transporting Russian and Caspian oil to both European and Asian markets.

Transit volumes fell during the Russia-Ukraine conflict but recovered to 3.4 million bpd in 2023. Still, the narrow waterways face risks from congestion, accidents, and political interference. Alternative routes include the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and Iraq-Turkiye pipelines.

Cape of Good Hope

At the southern tip of Africa, the Cape of Good Hope has re-emerged as a key bypass route amid Red Sea tensions. Once handling around 6 million bpd, traffic surged 50 percent to 8.7 million bpd in 2024 as shippers avoided the Suez Canal.

Around 40 percent of oil via the Cape now goes to China, with about one-third coming from the US and a quarter from South America. Middle Eastern producers like Saudi Arabia and Iraq have also diverted exports to Europe through this route.

Despite longer journeys and higher costs, traders see the Cape as one of the world’s safest maritime routes, higlighting its growing role in ensuring energy security.

Anchored on the theme ‘Africa Unlocked: Capital, Compliance, Connectivity and Market Trends, ‘this year’s edition will explore how evolving regulations, innovative financing models, and shifting sectoral priorities are shaping the future of investment across the continent.

Amala Umeike and Christian Aniukwu will headline as speakers, while the Fireside Chat will feature Ozioma Agu in conversation with Yann Alix. The Panel session will be moderated by Andrew Skipper, and will feature insights from distinguished speakers, Lucy Kavanagh, Daniel Driscoll, Francisca Igboanugo, and Paul Arkwright.

Bringing together investors, policymakers, and industry leaders, Horizon 2.0 is a dynamic platform for strategic dialogue and meaningful connections that will shape Africa’s investment landscape.