The Philippines is no stranger to corruption and the latest flood control controversy may not necessarily lead to devastating outcomes for the economy, according to Capital Economics and the Asean+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO).
A bigger risk that could emanate from the scandal is the national government’s response. Capital Economics said if the government resorts to populist policies to appease protesters, this could pose a challenge to the already limited fiscal space of the Marcos Jr. administration.
Capital Economics noted that the country’s public debt already stands at 60 percent of GDP. It added that the country’s current account deficit is already equivalent to 4 percent of GDP and may threaten the peso to deteriorate further.
‘A lot will depend on the government’s response to any further unrest. President Marcos Jnr. has, so far, been sympathetic to protestors, declaring that ‘if I weren’t president, I might be out on the streets with them’. A turn to more populist policymaking in order to appease protesters, as has occurred in Indonesia following protests is an obvious risk,’ Capital Economics said.
The United Kingdom-based think tank said there are many channels through which corruption can affect the decision of firms, households, and the government. One would be to refrain from investing and be forced to divert funds from reaching corrupt officials.
Capital Economics also said households could also be prevented from undertaking entrepreneurial activities. Corruption can also reduce the quality of infrastructure in the country.
‘Corruption is, of course, nothing new in the Philippines. The president’s parents-former President Marcos Snr. and his wife, Imelda-were guilty of widespread corruption when in office from 1965 to 1986 landing them with a Guinness World Record for ‘Greatest Robbery of a Government,” Capital Economics said.
‘That said, corruption is not an easy thing to measure and the indicators that are available give different messages on the scale of graft in the Philippines,’ it added.
Meanwhile, Amro Group Head and Lead Economist Runchana Pongsaparn said in a briefing on Thursday that it’s too early to say how the scandal will affect the economy.
She said if the controversy is short-lived, it may not have a significant impact on the country’s growth. For now, Amro maintained its growth forecast of 5.6 percent this year and 5.5 percent in 2026.
‘But we still expect that the consumption is going to grow quite steadily, supported by the strong labour market, lower inflation, and also the still robust remittances as well,’ Pongsaparn said.
‘And private investment, sentiment and export performance are the ones who probably moderate the growth a little bit because of the external uncertainty related to the US tariff. In terms of the scandal, I think we would have to see to what extent it’s actually going to affect the wider economy,’ she added.
Meanwhile, the more important aspect of the country’s economic growth and development is not being addressed. Amro Chief Economomist Dong He said the country’s main challenge is elevating its growth path.
He said the Philippines needs to lift its medium-term growth to higher levels. But this is being undermined by challenges such as climate change and the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on its workforce.
The Amro official said the geography of the Philippines exposes it to climate risks. This means there is a need to strengthen infrastructure and address flooding.
Another risk, He said, is AI which could threaten the jobs of service-industry workers. The national government and the private sector should invest in upskilling these workers.
‘The Philippines provides very good services there. But looking in the age of AI, how do we upgrade these services? So that would require also upscaling of the human resources in terms of public investment and also private sector investment. So these are the issues that I think would prepare the Philippines economies for these big challenges ahead,’ He said.