If numbers don’t lie, then the National Unity Platform (NUP) party has every reason to delight in the ones they have mustered before Uganda go to the polls in under three months.
In the sub-regions of Tooro and Rwenzori, the party has made significant progress even before a single ballot is cast. This as statistics show that the leading Opposition party will field 26 party flag-bearers at the parliamentary level out of 31 parliamentary positions. In every district in the sub-regions, compared to the 2021 General Election, NUP has a flag-bearer, with many political analysts attributing this to the costly National Resistance Movement (NRM) party primaries.
Many politicians who could not afford to take part in the NRM primaries ended up, per the analysts, switching allegiances to NUP. Out of the 31 positions in the sub-regions in question, 20 are in Tooro’s districts. They include directly elected women representatives from seven districts, including Fort Portal City. Our analysis shows that, this time, NUP has fielded 16 flag-bearers. This is up from just five flag-bearers the last time Uganda went to the polls in 2021.
We have also established that the leading Opposition party has, this time round, only failed to have flag-bearers in four constituencies across the sub-region of Tooro. Elsewhere, in Rwenzori, in 2021, NUP had seven candidates fly its flag in the sub-region. This meant that the party did not have candidates in all 11 positions that were up for grabs.
Crunching the numbers
All 12 candidates that NUP fielded across both sub-regions in the 2021 General Election did not make it to Parliament. They either lost to NRM or Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) party candidates. NRM was particularly dominant in Tooro, where it swept all the positions, something that it has consistently done. This is unlike Rwenzori, specifically Kasese, which tends to cast its lot with the FDC party. NUP will, however, take heart in the fact that it is better represented numerically before a ballot is cast this time round. In 2021, districts like Bunyangabu, Kamwenge, and Kitagwenda had no NUP candidate. Not this time.
In Fort Portal, which has two constituencies, NUP has presented candidates for the District Woman Representative (DWR) seat and the Central Division seat. Only the North Division remains vacant from a NUP perspective. In Kitagwenda District, the party has a candidate for the County MP seat, but did not field one for the DWR seat. In Kyenjojo District, out of four positions, NUP has managed to field candidates in three constituencies.
It has, however, missed out on the DWR slot. Similarly, in Kyegegwa District, the party filled three of the four positions, with only Kyaka South left without an aspirant candidate. NUP has fielded candidates in all the other districts-two in Bunyangabu, two in Kabarole, and three in Kamwenge.
Reading between the lines
Mr Joshua Asiimwe, a political analyst, has attributed the growing number of NUP flag-bearers in Tooro to the high cost of contesting in the NRM party primaries. He explained that the financial requirements for aspirants in the NRM party make it difficult for many young people and ordinary Ugandans to participate. NUP, he added, makes the process more affordable and accessible. ‘In NRM, one needs at least Shs50m to stand a chance in the primaries. This cost automatically locks out many youth and average citizens who cannot raise such amounts,’ the analyst told Sunday Monitor.
He added that NUP’s system of vetting, rather than holding expensive primaries, has made it easier for aspirants to secure the party flag without incurring heavy financial burdens. ‘NUP uses vetting instead of costly primaries, meaning aspirants don’t have to spend millions just to get the party flag. This is why the party is attracting more flag bearers this time compared to 2021,’ he noted.
Mr Asiimwe further predicted that if NUP maintains this model, the number of people seeking the party flag will continue to rise in future electoral cycles. ‘As long as NUP remains inclusive and cost-free in its vetting process, more Ugandans, especially the youth, will be drawn to the party. This trend will likely see NUP fielding even more candidates in the years ahead,’ he concluded.
Mr James Kugonza, an NRM supporter in Fort Portal, however, defended the ruling party’s primary system, arguing that while many people said they are expensive, it ensures fairness and competitiveness.
‘Yes, NRM primaries are costly, but that cost reflects the strength of the party. Aspirants must invest because they are competing in a party with a strong national base. It also helps us sieve out unserious candidates who may not manage campaigns at a national level,’ he said. He added that despite NUP’s growing numbers in fielding party flags, winning elections would be another challenge altogether.
‘Fielding candidates is one thing, but winning is another. NRM remains strong in Tooro and Rwenzori, and the structures we have on the ground cannot be matched by NUP. That’s why even in 2021, when they fielded candidates, none of them made it to Parliament,’ he said.
NUP on cloud nine
Mr Innocent Natukunda Bitariho, the NUP coordinator for the Tooro Sub-region, said the growth in flag-bearers is attributed to the growing demand for change among the people.
‘This time people want change because we have many candidates, despite the intimidation from NRM and security agencies,’ Mr Natukunda said.
He also revealed that for the first time, NUP has an unopposed candidate in the forthcoming general elections, a development that provides proof that the people are ready for change.
‘In Batalika Sub-county, in Kyenjojo District, our male youth councillor is unopposed. Unfortunately, security is intimidating him to step down, which we shall not accept. But this shows the people’s readiness for change. We expect to win more seats than in 2021. People used to dismiss NUP as a Buganda party, but now we are fielding candidates across the country,’ he told Sunday Monitor.
Mr Natukunda, who was given the party flag for Mwenge North, Kyenjojo District, said for years, he has been mobilising and working hard to ensure representation across the sub-region with party flag-bearers.
‘I have been among those working tirelessly to ensure most districts in Tooro get NUP flag bearers. Getting the party flag was not a mistake. I expect victory this time because people have realised the need for change, and they are rejecting the propaganda spread by NRM,’ he disclosed. In the Rwenzori Sub-region, which comprises the districts of Kasese, Bundibugyo, and Ntoroko, NUP has also expanded its presence.
Out of 11 constituencies, the party has fielded 10 flag-bearers, missing only one seat; Ntoroko County in Ntoroko District. Mr Brian Basisa, the NUP chairman for Kasese District, said the increase in demand for the party flag ahead of the 2026 General Election is largely driven by the youth, who form the majority and are seeking change. He further explained that, unlike other parties, NUP offers them an opportunity to contest for leadership positions.
‘In the NRM party, it is very difficult to get the party flag because for years, they have maintained the same individuals. Youth are denied opportunities to contest, so they have crossed to NUP because they want change,’ Mr Basisa said.
Pandemic barriers
He noted that NUP struggled to field many candidates in 2021 due to the fact that it was new as a political party and the challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic. ‘In 2021, it was Covid-19. Most meetings were held virtually, and many of our members did not know each other. Security [agencies] also disrupted several of our meetings in Kasese, which made it difficult to get candidates,’ he explained.
Mr Basisa added that during the 2021 electoral cycle, many aspiring candidates were intimidated or even coaxed into withdrawing before nominations. This time the party has prepared its flag bearers through training, leaving Mr Basisa confident that none will pull out after nomination.
In Kasese District, during the 2021 General Election, NUP fielded candidates in five out of six parliamentary seats, only missing Busongora North. This time, all six positions have been filled with flag-bearers. Compared to 2021, when most of the candidates were new to the party, this time only one returning aspirant has been handed the flag again-Ms Fatuma Katembo Kamama, for Kasese District Woman MP. The rest are new faces awaiting nomination. In Busongora South, Mr Jackson Mbaju, who contested as an Independent in 2021 and later ran on the NUP ticket in the 2022 by-election, has once again been endorsed by the party to contest.
The other new flag bearers include Mr Bwambale Tinkasimire for Bukonzo East; Mr Shahidu Tuhakaba Muhindo for Bukonzo West; Mr Jonan Bwambake for Busongora North; and Mr Robert Muthoma for Kasese Municipality. In the 2021 polls, NUP did not win any parliamentary seat in Kasese District. However, with the broader slate of candidates in 2026, the party is optimistic about securing victories. Elsewhere, in the Rwenzori Sub-region, Bundibugyo District, which fielded only two candidates in 2021, has now filled all three parliamentary positions.
In Ntoroko District, where the party previously had no representation, NUP has managed to field one aspirant candidate. This has-much like its principal, Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, alias Bobi Wine-left the party with a spring in its step.