Across Kenya, there is a strong sentiment that there is no money on the ground. Mama Mboga in informal markets, small business owners, and even salaried employees complain that they don’t have money.
On the contrary, economic metrics like gross domestic product (GDP) and money supply, that signal that wealth is growing and money is available, indicates that the economy is on a growth path. Why do we see this inconsistencies!
According to the World Bank, Kenya’s GDP growth rate averages 5.5 percent. On bank assets, this now stands at more than Sh7 trillion, and profits in the sector is growing steadily. If the economy is growing and liquidity expanding, why is there ‘no money on the ground’?
To answer this paradox, we need to look at the nature of money. Banks have the unique privilege of creating money from nothing. Under fiat currency and the fractional reserve system, central banks and commercial banks can create money.
The CBK issues base money, while commercial banks generate new deposits when they give out loans. Money supply and availability is influenced heavily by risk-return fundamentals and the monetary policy.
In 2016, Parliament forced interest rate caps on banks to protect consumers from high borrowing costs.
While this was well-intentioned, from a risk/return perspective, it was a wrong policy, and it quickly backfired.
Banks, finding capped interest rate lending unprofitable, shifted their credit portfolios toward government securities, which were both risk-free and lucrative. Private sector credit slowed sharply.
The caps were repealed in 2019, but the hangover remained. CBK later that year introduced risk-based pricing, allowing banks to vary interest rates depending on the borrower’s risk profile, unfortunately, the framework had some restrictions, and this too hasn’t worked.
In response to the above failure of transmission mechanism, CBK has issued a framework anchored on Kesonia + K to be used by banks in determining interest rates. Kesonia is short for Kenya Shilling Overnight Interbank Average.
At its core it allows capital allocation based on prevailing monetary policy dictated market rates, risk and return. Globally, Sterling Overnight Index Average (SONIA) is used in the UK and Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is used in the US as anchors for pricing interest rates.
There are other pressures on money supply, like the current fiscal policy, where a heavy government borrowing is required to support servicing of old debt, which continues to crowd out private sector borrowers.
This shift offers hope in the economy. Transitioning to this new risk-based pricing framework will stimulate flow of money to the ground.
It will improve credit worthiness as a culture, which will give banks the confidence to extend more loans to MSMEs and other risky segments of the economy and will improve affordability for good borrowers. With that, we expect liquidity to flow more to households and businesses, strengthening the grassroots economy.