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In a move reshaping Nigeria’s political landscape, several governors elected under the main opposition the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) are defecting to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) as the country heads towards the 2027 general elections.

Although defections are nothing new in Nigerian politics, observers say the movement is unprecedented due to its timing, pace, and symbolism.

Umo Eno, Akwa Ibom State governor, and Sheriff Oborevwori, Delta State governor, moved from the PDP to the APC earlier in the year. Duoye Diri, Bayelsa State governor, and Peter Mba, Enugu State governor, former PDP members, have moved to the APC.

The development has strengthened APC’s foothold in Nigeria, particularly in the South-East, weakening the PDP in its otherwise strongholds ahead of the 2027 general election.

There are rumours that Agbu Kefas, Taraba State governor, is also planning to defect to the ruling party.

There are five possible reasons for the defections, according to interviews with several politicians and politically-active Nigerians.

Power consolidation

The gale of defections to the ruling party, particularly from the South, signals President Bola Tinubu’s strategy to consolidate his influence across southern Nigeria ahead of the 2027 elections, pundits told BusinessDay.

This comes amid discontent over his administration’s policies and reforms in the North, where his influence and popularity have waned significantly since assuming office in 2023.

Several key politicians who worked for his victory in 2023, especially those from the defunct Congress for Progressive (CPC) bloc and ally of late former President Muhammadu Buhari, have moved to the Action Democratic Congress (ADC). Similarly, attempts to lure Rabiu Kwankwaso, the leader of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), whose party controls Kano State, have not been successful. Kano with over one million votes is seen as strategic. The ruling party lost the state to the NNPP in 2027 and has been making moves to recapture it.

Consequently, the administration fears that it would lose a large chunk of the votes in the northern Nigeria in 2027 and is making desperate moves to consolidate its strength in the South.

With Mbah’s defection on Tuesday, the APC controls three of the five South East states, consolidating its position as the biggest party in the region.

PDP’s internal crisis fuelling exodus

The PDP has been struggling with internal discord since its defeat in the 2023 presidential election. Factions remain loyal to different power blocs, particularly between the G5 Governors and the national leadership.

The lack of a clear direction, leadership disputes, and allegations of marginalisation are pushing some governors to seek more stable ground.

‘There’s no longer a sense of unity or purpose in the PDP,’ said one top party official who spoke on the condition of anonymity. ‘People are looking out for their interests.’

Currently, despite moves by PDP leaders, including Seyi Makinde, Oyo State governor, there are growing fears the planned convention may not hold due to litigations and serious moves to stop the convention by aggrieved members.

Many state chapters are in crisis, and there is no sign that issues would be settled before the 2027 polls.

Days ago, the forum of PDP chairmen suspended the Abia and Imo states’ chairmen for allegedly working for the ruling party.

The leadership crisis in PDP, which has pitted Nyesom Wike, the FCT Minister and former Rivers State governor, against prominent individuals within the party, does not seem to be ending soon – although some of these politicians have moved to the ADC.

Pundits say many of some of the governors are moving to the APC because they fear for their chances in the 2027 general election, especially if the PDP doesn’t agree on who are the authentic chairman and general secretary of the PDP.

Many think it is an issue that could come back to haunt the party.

There are fears among the governors over who would sign their nomination forms, with many thinking their opponents can capitalise on that to unseat them in court.

Lure to be close to central government

Pundits say one of the most important incentives for governors’ defection is access to federal power. In Nigeria’s highly centralised system, the federal government controls significant resources from allocations and infrastructure projects to security apparatus. So, by joining the ruling party, which currently rules the country under President Bola Tinubu, pundits say perhaps the governors believe they can secure more favourable treatment for their states. Perhaps, the very least is to avoid being politically sidelined by the administration. ‘Governors don’t want to be in opposition when crucial funding and development projects are being shared. It’s political survival,’ said Chika Ibe, a public policy expert at the University of Abuja.

On Tuesday when Governor Peter Mbah of Enugu defected to APC, he framed the decision as one of development, not politics, citing the need to move to the ruling party to work more closely with President Tinubu.

Sam Amadi, a policy strategist and expert in law and governance, pinned the gale of defections on what he described as ‘the need for self-preservation.’

Amadi, who is the director of the Abuja School of Social and Political Thoughts, noted that many of the governors defecting do not do so because of political ideology.

According to him, the need for security remains a major factor.

‘They have no confidence in the electoral process,’ he said.

Coercion, fear of prosecution for corruption

There are reports that several opposition politicians, especially incumbent opposition governors, are being pressured to join the APC ahead of the 2027 general election.

Sources say many of the governors have their investments or businesses in Lagos and the FCT and don’t want to lose out.

Others fear for their political future, and as such, have decided to give in to pressure.

Some days ago, the Forum of State Chairmen of the PDP, in its resolutions, condemned what it called the ‘APC’s undemocratic and desperate efforts to intimidate PDP leaders, including governors, senators, and lawmakers, into defecting.’

It warned that such actions posed a serious threat to Nigeria’s democracy and risked creating a one-party state.

Similarly, pundits say many defecting politicians and governors to the APC are doing that to secure their future, avoid investigation, or preserve influence as the PDP struggles with internal crises.

‘Some are calculating and want to avoid being tried after office, so joining the ruling party seems the safest thing to do,’ said Hassan Saliu, national president of the Nigerian Political Science Association (NPSA).

‘The PDP is facing the implications of its loss of power and doesn’t appear ready to give the APC a run for its money, so anything can happen.

‘In the Third World, parties are only strong when they are in power. The PDP has been out of power for over 10 years now, and politics here is cash and carry.’

Okechukwu Osuoha, PDP deputy national legal adviser, sees the gale of defections as results of intimidation, but wondered why the governors are falling prey easily.

Strategic positioning ahead 2027

Pundits say the defections of PDP governors to the APC are not just political headlines; they are part of a larger realignment ahead of the 2027 elections.

Driven by power calculations, access to resources, and internal party frustrations, perhaps these moves reflect the dynamics of a political system where ideology often takes a back seat.

With the next general elections less than two years away, many politicians are thinking beyond their current positions.

Amadi, earlier quoted, said the governors see their membership of APC as nothing but security for their businesses and assets, especially for post-governorship security.

‘They have no confidence in the electoral system, based on assessment of risks.

‘If the governor of Rivers State can be removed without any consequence, why do you think they will not work to secure their future while still in the office?’ he asked.

‘They think that this government is so powerful and can do anything.’

Nigeria’s farmer-herder conflict is often framed as a security crisis. It is also a feed crisis. If cattle had access to reliable, nutritious fodder, roaming would decline, farm damage would reduce, and protein output would rise. New alfalfa trials in Plateau State show a practical path forward, high yields, strong germination, and protein levels that meet international standards, pointing to fodder as a peace and productivity strategy.

‘The success in Plateau State has profound implications for Nigeria’s agricultural future. Alfalfa, a high-quality, climate-resilient fodder, offers multiple benefits that address some of the country’s most pressing food security challenges.’

From conflict to fodder: A new approach

Experts have rightly noted that feed and fodder are the lifeblood of any sustainable livestock production system. Feed alone accounts for over 70 percent of production costs in animal agriculture and is a key factor in the recurring farmer-herder clashes. Ensuring affordable feed has crossed over from being an economic issue into a matter of national security. This is where alfalfa (Medicago sativa) comes in as a potential game-changer.

Meet Alfalfa: The ‘Green Gold’ of livestock feed

Alfalfa, also known as lucerne, is often called the ‘queen of forages’ globally, and for good reason. It is a perennial legume rich in protein, vitamins, and minerals, making it one of the most nutrient-dense animal feed crops in the world.

In countries like the United States, Argentina, and Sudan, alfalfa is widely cultivated as high-quality hay and silage for dairy and beef cattle. Per Wikipedia, alfalfa is, in fact, the most cultivated forage legume worldwide, with over 30 million hectares grown and roughly 436 million tonnes produced annually. This ‘green gold’ improves livestock weight gain, milk yield, and overall productivity. It also enriches the soil by fixing nitrogen and preventing erosion, a bonus for sustainable farming.

Despite its global prominence, alfalfa has been virtually absent from Nigeria’s agricultural landscape – until now. Historically, livestock farmers have relied on natural grasses and crop residues, which are seasonal and nutritionally inadequate. Alfalfa offers a superior alternative: it can be cut multiple times a year, yielding large volumes of protein-rich fodder. Trials elsewhere in Africa show promise. For example, Sudan and South Africa have become leading producers, leveraging irrigation and dry-season cultivation to export alfalfa hay to the Middle East. If these countries can turn fodder into export earnings, why shouldn’t Nigeria harness alfalfa to feed its own animals and even generate revenue?

A breakthrough in Plateau State

Sceptics might wonder if a temperate-climate crop like alfalfa can grow in Nigeria’s environment. Recent evidence emphatically says yes. In May 2025, a public-private partnership in Plateau State – led by The Alternative Bank and Plateau State University – unveiled a landmark alfalfa cultivation project that has yielded stunning results. Planted in the cooler ‘near-temperate’ climate of Bokkos, Plateau, alfalfa seeds imported from Kenya thrived in local soil.

Germination rates exceeded 85 percent in two weeks, and plants reached 66.5 cm in just 13 weeks, matching global growth benchmarks. Under rain-fed conditions, the trial plots are projecting annual yields of 18 to 20 tonnes per hectare, at par with what farmers get in the Americas and Europe. Laboratory tests indicate the crop’s protein content will meet international standards, meaning Nigerian-grown alfalfa is just as nutritious as imported feed.

The Alternative Bank’s CEO, Hassan Yusuf, described the achievement as a breakthrough moment, declaring that alfalfa can redefine livestock farming and secure Nigeria’s food future. At a field day showcasing the trials, herders, farmers, students, and government officials watched cattle eagerly feed on the lush alfalfa plots – a vivid demonstration of its palatability. The Plateau State Commissioner for Agriculture hailed the project and signalled plans to expand cultivation to all 17 local government areas as part of a strategy to unlock the livestock value chain. Local herders also expressed gratitude and pledged support, seeing in this crop a hope for harmonious coexistence. Why Alfalfa matters for Nigeria’s food security

The success in Plateau State has profound implications for Nigeria’s agricultural future. Alfalfa, a high-quality, climate-resilient fodder, offers multiple benefits that address some of the country’s most pressing food security challenges. By providing reliable feed, alfalfa can be a practical solution to the herder-farmer conflicts, mitigate the need for pastoralists to roam, and foster collaboration between herders and crop farmers. This could pave the way for more settled livestock production and greater food security. Richard Mark Mbaram, Special Adviser on Knowledge Management and Communication to the Federal Ministry of Livestock Development, stated, ‘This isn’t just about growing grass. It’s about securing our food systems, reducing conflict, and giving pastoralists and farmers new tools for climate resilience.’

Farmers who feed alfalfa report better fertility and higher market value for their livestock, which could reduce the feed costs that currently dominate farming expenses. This would make livestock farming more profitable and help lower the cost of dairy and meat production, making these products more affordable for consumers. Scaling up: What will it take?

Adopting alfalfa nationwide will not be without challenges. Its cultivation must be adapted to suitable climates, starting with the Plateau and other elevated regions, while research continues into heat-tolerant varieties. Researchers like Dr Hosea Finangwai, of Plateau State University, caution that alfalfa is ‘a temperate plant’, which is why seeds were sourced from Kenya and tested in Plateau’s cooler environment. Earlier attempts to grow alfalfa in parts of the country failed due to unfavourable climate. This means we need to identify other microclimates or seasons in Nigeria where alfalfa can thrive and possibly develop or import tropicalised alfalfa varieties that can handle heat and humidity.

Areas in the north with cooler dry seasons, or elevations like Mambilla Plateau, could be candidates. Research institutions and universities should be funded, taking a cue from the model adopted by The Alternative Bank to conduct adaptability trials across regions.

Right now, virtually all alfalfa seed in Nigeria is imported and expensive. To scale up, we must establish a local seed multiplication programme.

Building a robust alfalfa seed system, from certified seed production to distribution, is critical. The government can encourage this by fast-tracking the registration of alfalfa as an official pasture crop (interestingly, recent efforts registered eight other forages but not yet alfalfa).

It is heartening that Nigeria’s Federal Ministry of Livestock Development is formulating a National Animal Feed and Fodder Policy. That policy should explicitly incorporate crops like alfalfa and set targets for fodder production across the federation. Government support could include land allocation for pasture development, soft loans or grants for fodder farmers, and smart subsidies (for example, seed subsidies or guaranteed buy-back schemes). States, especially those plagued by herder-farmer crises, should follow suit. In the South-West, where herder incursions have recently put 40 percent of the region’s food production at risk, state governments and regional bodies are now discussing the establishment of modern ranches.

This must go hand-in-hand with growing fodder like alfalfa on a large scale.

Perhaps the most encouraging aspect of the Plateau alfalfa project was the involvement of an ‘ethical’ non-interest bank as a key driver. The Alternative Bank’s role shows how innovative financing models can unlock agricultural potential. By using profit-sharing and impact-focused investment, the Bank could fund a project many commercial lenders would shy away from. This model, where financial institutions work closely with researchers and farmers, is worth replicating. We need more agritech startups, agribusiness companies, and financial institutions to see fodder as the next frontier. Public-private partnerships (PPPs) can establish seed farms, mechanised hay baling facilities, and feed mills. The recently launched Feed-Fodder-Livestock Investment Deal Room, facilitated by Nigeria’s feed and fodder stakeholders in collaboration with Sterling Bank, is a step in the right direction. It has already attracted investors for large-scale projects, such as a 1,000-hectare fodder farm in Benue State. This momentum must be sustained.

Time to make that move

The time to act is now. As Nigeria grapples with food insecurity, the clock is ticking, and the solution lies in how we address the root causes: the scarcity of quality livestock feed and the conflict it breeds. The adoption of alfalfa as a sustainable fodder crop offers a powerful tool for transforming the nation’s agricultural landscape. But transformation requires bold steps from all sectors: government, private enterprises, and farmers alike.

This is the moment to embrace innovation and actively invest in long-term solutions. The Alternative Bank, through its groundbreaking partnership with Plateau State University, has demonstrated the immense potential of alfalfa to solve not just an agricultural problem but a national security issue.

From policymakers who must adopt forward-thinking policies to investors and agribusiness leaders who can fund the cultivation and scaling of alfalfa, everyone has a role to play. The government can lead with progressive policies and provide necessary subsidies, while financial institutions like The Alternative Bank can innovate financing solutions that make it easier for farmers to transition to fodder cultivation.

Similarly, farmers must embrace new technologies and cultivate this green gold for the future of their livelihoods and the nation’s prosperity.

Now is the time to make that move. By investing in alfalfa, Nigeria can finally end the vicious cycle of conflicts, boost agricultural productivity, and set the foundation for a secure, sustainable food future. In short, the seeds of change are already planted, but it is up to us all to nurture them and harvest the promise they offer.

No single crop is a silver bullet, of course. Alfalfa will not miraculously solve all of Nigeria’s agricultural woes. However, its recent introduction has shown what is possible with vision and collaboration. The Plateau State pilot transformed sceptical local farmers into curious experimenters ready to give this ‘magic’ plant a try. It turned herders who were once at odds with farmers into partners gathered around the same demo plot, hopeful for a future where cows stay fat without communities going hungry. This is the kind of change we need at scale.