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When the BudgIT State of States Report 2025 ranked Anambra as Nigeria’s best-performing state in fiscal management, it appeared to affirm the state’s reputation for prudence and ambition. From second place in 2024 to first in 2025, Anambra’s rise was powered by a striking statistic: 75.32 percent of its total expenditure was committed to capital projects, the highest in the federation.

Governor Charles Soludo’s administration hailed the report as a validation of its fiscal discipline and developmental vision. But behind the applause lies a paradox, a fiscal profile that looks impeccable on paper yet struggles to translate into real improvements in the lives of ordinary Anambra residents.

When allocation doesn’t mean delivery

Anambra’s 2024 budget tells a story of impressive ambition and poor execution. Out of N218.26 billion allocated for capital expenditure, disbursement data reveals huge shortfalls in key sectors that matter most to citizens.

Education, the bedrock of human capital development, saw only 34.69 percent of its allocation actually spent. The health sector did slightly better, at 62.5 percent utilisation. The most alarming figures came from social welfare (3.1 percent) and land development (17.4 percent).

Indeed, while the state earned praise for prioritising infrastructure, the low implementation rates across critical sectors paint a picture of a system efficient at planning but weak in execution.

‘Ordinary people measure success by whether life is getting easier,’ a policy analyst noted. ‘If rural roads remain impassable and teachers are owed allowances, then fiscal excellence has limited meaning.’

Debt risk multiplier: The foreign exchange time bomb

Anambra’s fiscal strength is overshadowed by a debt structure heavily skewed toward foreign borrowing. Of its N187.88 billion total debt stock, 84.73 percent is denominated in foreign currency, a risky position in a period of intense naira volatility.

Between 2015 and 2024, Anambra’s total debt ballooned by an astonishing 1,129 percent. With the naira’s depreciation from N800/$1 in 2023 to N1,500/$1 in 2024, the state’s repayment obligations surged.

Patrick Chimezie, an economist, believes this debt growth is tied to the governor’s expansionary budgetary approach aimed at rapid infrastructure development.

‘Anambra is a developing state, so there is a need to grow roads and institutional structures,’ he said. ‘Borrowing is not the problem, the questions are: what are we borrowing for, and what is the repayment plan? Without clear answers, the debt size will continue to pile up.’

For a state famed for its entrepreneurial energy, Anambra’s fiscal dependency on Abuja remains troubling. Despite moderate growth in Internally Generated Revenue (IGR), up 18.7 percent year-on-year, FAAC allocations contributed 87.79 percent of the state’s total recurrent revenue in 2024.

This dependency underscores a deeper structural weakness: local economic productivity remains too shallow to sustain the state’s growing ambitions.

BudgIT’s State of States Report 2025 supports this concern, noting that across Nigeria, 21 states have relied on FAAC for at least 70 percent of their total revenue. For Anambra, that dependency ratio is one of the highest among the top five performing states.

‘It’s worrisome that Anambra depends more on FAAC than on IGR,’ Chimezie added. ‘Yet citizens complain of multiple taxation. Traders are overburdened by levies even as allocations from the federal government have more than doubled. There are too many revenue-collecting agencies, and it’s unclear if all the money reaches the government’s coffers.’

Fiscal brilliance or paper stability?

Experts believe Anambra’s top ranking in the 2025 fiscal index, which aggregates metrics such as debt sustainability, revenue performance, and capital prioritisation, reflects statistical strength, not necessarily citizen welfare.

They cautioned that ‘fiscal success,’ driven by external inflows and one-off revenues, may prove unsustainable.

‘The paradox here lies in the disconnect between fiscal prioritisation and real development impact,’ said Kingsley Enwelim Nwanze, director-general of the Centre for Leadership and Creative Entrepreneurs in Africa (CELCE-Africa).

‘Despite the impressive capital allocation, implementation rates in education, healthcare, and job creation remain worryingly low. When external inflows drive fiscal performance rather than internally generated productivity, sustainability becomes uncertain.’

Nwanze argued that true fiscal success should be measured by improved welfare outcomes, reduced poverty, better schools and hospitals, as well as thriving local enterprises.

‘Without inclusive implementation frameworks and strong monitoring systems, high capital allocations may only beautify reports while citizens continue to struggle,’ he said

A cautionary triumph

The numbers are clear: Anambra’s fiscal reforms are real, but their social dividends remain uncertain. With 75 percent of its spending classified as capital investment, the state stands as a model for ambition, yet it struggles with weak project execution, unsustainable debt exposure, and heavy reliance on federal transfers.

For residents, the lived reality is that roads are still riddled with potholes, public hospitals lack equipment, and education infrastructure continues to deteriorate despite billions on paper.

As Anambra celebrates its fiscal crown, the real question remains: can the state convert its paper prosperity into people-centered progress? Or will it remain Nigeria’s most fiscally sound paradox?

When US President Donald Trump designated Nigeria as a ‘Country of Particular Concern’ over alleged persecution of Christians, the reaction from Abuja was swift. The federal government rejected the label and reaffirmed Nigeria’s sovereignty.

But as the controversy deepened, following Trump’s threat to halt aid and instruct the Department of Defense to prepare for ‘military action,’ analysts said the incident exposed a far more troubling weakness: Nigeria’s diplomatic silence.

Analysts and observers argue that the developments expose Nigeria’s diplomatic vacuum, as there is no ambassador in Washington to engage directly with US authorities.

‘There is no authoritative figure to speak for Nigeria in Washington,’ said a senior foreign policy researcher. ‘Without an ambassador, even the most serious diplomatic outreach becomes bureaucratic and slow. It weakens Nigeria’s ability to defend itself,’ a political analyst noted.

The missing diplomats

In September 2023, President Bola Tinubu recalled all ambassadors and high commissioners, promising to reposition Nigeria’s foreign service for greater efficiency. Over two years later, replacements have yet to be named. From Washington to London, Brasilia to Beijing, Nigeria’s embassies are without heads, leaving senior officers to ‘hold the fort’ amid shrinking budgets and growing debt.

The result is a global network of underfunded, overstretched missions struggling to keep up with both administrative and diplomatic demands.

‘Some of our embassy staff, diplomats for that matter, have taken their children out of school because they couldn’t pay the school fees,’ said Sunny Ofehe, executive assistant to the Delta State governor on External Relations and Diaspora Affairs, in a recent interview. ‘We have more than 110 missions across the globe. and we don’t even have ambassadors.’

For analysts, Trump’s threat, whether rhetorical or political, exposes the real-world consequences of this vacuum.

A crisis of response

Normally, a threat from a major power like the United States would trigger intense diplomatic engagement. The Nigerian ambassador would seek meetings with the US State Department, brief congressional committees, and rally allies to counter any misperception. Instead, Nigeria’s Washington mission could only send cables to Abuja.

The timing couldn’t be worse. Tinubu has spent much of his presidency travelling across continents, courting investors and signing trade and development agreements. But with no ambassadors to sustain the momentum, many of those deals risk stalling.

Money troubles and empty offices

The absence of ambassadors is only one symptom of a broader malaise. Nigeria’s foreign missions are buckling under financial strain, with mounting debts, unpaid staff, and in some cases, eviction threats.

‘The ministry is not unaware of the restrictions that financial limitations have placed on the smooth running of the missions,’ said Kimiebi Imomotimi Ebienfa, spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in a recent statement.

He admitted that unpaid salaries, rent, and foreign service allowances have disrupted operations, but added that the government is taking ‘decisive steps’ to stabilise missions.

According to the ministry, special intervention funds have been approved to offset debts, and a committee has cleared ‘more than 80 percent’ of verified payments, including salaries and service provider arrears. The second semester allocations have also been approved, with some missions ‘beginning to stabilise.’

The political side is just as troubling. In a recent meeting with members of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) and the Buhari Group, Tinubu admitted that drawing up the ambassadorial list has been difficult.

‘I still have some slots for ambassadorial positions that too many people are craving for, but it’s not easy stitching together those names,’ he said.

To many diplomats, this confirmed fears that ambassadorial postings were being held hostage by political bargaining.

Losing ground abroad

Foreign policy experts warn that the prolonged absence of ambassadors is eroding Nigeria’s credibility in multilateral and bilateral platforms. For a country campaigning for a non-permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council and lobbying for leadership roles in regional and international organisations, the optics are damaging.

Reacting on X (formerly Twitter), Aisha Hamman, a lawyer and civil society leader, described the situation as ‘a loophole that foreign powers are already exploiting.’

‘President @officialABAT, beyond statements, it is ABSOLUTELY NOT SENSIBLE that 26 months on, Nigerian embassies abroad remain without appointed ambassadors,’ she wrote.

‘Ambassadors are the official face of Nigeria abroad. Chargés d’affaires cannot lobby effectively, negotiate high-level agreements, or fully protect our interests in international forums. Without them, Nigeria loses influence in multilateral bodies, bilateral talks, and regional coalitions.’

She warned that the vacuum leaves Nigeria’s diaspora unprotected, undermines visa negotiations and trade facilitation, and ‘creates openings for foreign powers to misrepresent or manipulate Nigeria’s narrative, a vulnerability already evident in the Christian genocide claims that fueled this CPC designation.’

Calls for strategic engagement

Rabiu Kwankwaso, a former presidential candidate, urged a dual approach, overseas dialogue and reform at home.

‘It is important to emphasise that our country is a sovereign nation whose people face different threats from outlaws across the country,’ he said. ‘The United States should assist the Nigerian authorities with better cutting-edge technology to tackle these problems, rather than posing a threat that could further polarise our country.’

Kwankwaso advised Tinubu to appoint special envoys from Nigeria’s seasoned diplomats to engage Washington while expediting the posting of permanent ambassadors.

‘It is necessary to appoint permanent ambassadors to represent Nigeria’s interests on the international stage,’ he added.

Wunmi Bewaji, legal scholar and public affairs analyst, took a broader view, linking Trump’s rhetoric to his controversial leadership style.

‘It is about Trump’s character. Consider what he is doing to his people,’ Bewaji said. ‘He speaks like an emperor. He has done more damage to America’s democracy than any other president in the history of that country. Look at what he is doing in Ukraine, Colombia, and Venezuela. He deployed military men to the coast of Venezuela, and they are killing fishermen. What is that?’

Bewaji urged Tinubu to ‘engage in dialogue through multilateral platforms’ such as ECOWAS and the European Union, arguing that only coordinated diplomacy can de-escalate tensions.

The recent drop in food prices across Nigeria has brought the much-needed relief to households who have been grappling with the rising cost of living.

The fall in food prices is driven by an ongoing harvest season, better climate for farmers, improved security, and a surge in cheap imports backed by a free import waiver granted by the federal government last year.

A BusinessDay market survey across major cities in Nigeria shows that prices of food staples have dropped by an average of 30 percent year-on-year.

In Lagos, findings reveal that a 50kg bag of local parboiled rice now sells for an average of N65,000 against N73,000 in October 2024, reflecting a 11 percent drop in price. It now costs N62,000 for a 50kg bag of foreign parboiled rice as against N82,000 in October 2024, indicating a 24 percent drop.

Prices of a big basket of tomatoes have dropped 30 percent in Lagos from an average of N50,000 in October last year to N35,000 currently.

In Abuja, prices of a 50kg bag of local parboiled rice that sold for N75,000 last October have fallen by 16 percent to N63,000.

Similarly, a four-litre container of white garri now sells for N1,600 from an average of N4,000 in October last year, indicating a 60 percent drop in price. In Abuja, a small bucket of rice, popularly called ‘mudu,’ now sells for an average of N2,500 against N5,000 last October.

The price reductions have elicited excitement among Nigerians who now say they can once again afford a balanced diet.

Ogechi Chimereme, a pharmacist in Lagos Island, said she feels relieved that food prices are falling. ‘I am so happy that food prices are dropping. I wish it would keep coming down.

‘I went to the market recently and was surprised at the new prices of vegetable oil, a bag of rice, and other items,’ she said, beaming with joy. ‘I was even able to buy more than I budgeted for.’

She told BusinessDay that her family had previously been burdened with the weight of food prices. ‘Before this relief we are seeing, I had increased my feeding budget because my usual amount could no longer meet my family’s needs.’

Chimereme is one of many individuals in Nigeria that are finding respite from the ease in food prices.

Esther Ejiro (not real name), a fruit seller at Berger in Lagos, said she hopes that the drop in food prices will continue. ‘I’m so happy food prices are coming down,’ she said.

Nigeria experienced its worst cost-of-living crisis in 2024 when food prices surged to a record high in June to 40.87 percent, driving headline inflation to 34.19 percent within the period.

However, food inflation has considerably eased, sliding to 16.87 percent in September 2025, according to the most recent CPI data.

‘This outsized food inflation decline may have been partly prompted by the recent material drop in market food prices and easing security concerns,’ a report by Cardinal Stone, a multi-asset investment management firm, noted.

Olu Mayowa, a civil servant and father of three, explained how his family is taking advantage of the drop-in food prices.

According to him, ‘These days, the money I give to my wife can now buy more food items as opposed to before. So, she buys the same things, but in larger quantities.’

‘I’m happy about that,’ he added.

For a country where people spend over 50 percent of their salaries on food, according to several studies, the ease in food prices has brought relief and hope to cash-strapped Nigerians.

Iyi Lawale, an accountant in Lagos, said a lot of families can now better feed their children. ‘I don’t think food should still be a problem for a country like Nigeria. But food prices are coming down now, which is a good thing.’