In 2023, President Tinubu’s removal of fuel subsidies sent shockwaves through Nigeria’s economy, spiking food prices as transport and production costs soared.
By early 2025, staples like rice and tomatoes hit record highs, with food inflation peaking at 21.87% year-on-year in August. Yet, a remarkable shift has occurred: food inflation dropped to 16.87% in September 2025, and Nigeria recorded its first month-on-month food deflation (-1.57%) since February 2012.
Headline inflation fell to 18.02%, the lowest in three years. Market prices reflect this relief-a 50kg bag of rice now costs ?50,000-?63,000 (down from ?100,000), tomatoes have fallen from ?120,000 to ?35,000 per basket, and garri is down from ?3,500 to ?2,000 for a 4-litre container. Staples like maize, beans, onions, pepper, and sorghum have seen 40-55% price reductions nationwide amid low purchasing power.
This explainer unpacks the key drivers behind this trend, drawing on official reports, market surveys, and economic analyses.
Key Reasons for the Drop
Bumper Harvests and Increased Production: The 2025 wet season delivered strong yields for staples like rice, maize, sorghum, millet, cowpea, yam, and cassava, surpassing 2024 levels.
Expanded cultivated areas, improved farming practices, and farmer resilience despite weather challenges drove this surplus.
Government-backed dry-season farming in states like Sokoto and Kebbi flooded markets with onions, tomatoes, and peppers, outpacing demand and slashing grain prices by over 50%, according to the 2025 Agricultural Performance Survey and Minister Abubakar Kyari.
Government Agricultural Policies: Under Tinubu’s ‘Renewed Hope’ agenda, Nigeria doubled down on local production, banning rice imports and rolling out subsidies for fertilizers and seeds, mechanization through tractor programs, extension services, and revamped silos for better storage.
The 2025 budget sustained these efforts, with import waivers for farming inputs, boosting output and stabilising supply chains, as noted by the Federal Ministry of Agriculture.
Naira Appreciation and Lower Input Costs: The naira strengthened from ~?1,600/$ to ~?1,500/$ in late 2025, reducing costs for imported fertilizers and fuel.
Fuel prices dropped from a peak of ?1,350/L to ?820-?870/L, thanks to competition between Dangote Refinery and NNPCL. This cut farming and transport costs by 20-30%, with savings passed to consumers, as economists like Dr. Usman Bello of Ahmadu Bello University have observed.
Seasonal and Market Dynamics: The September-October harvest peak naturally eases prices, but improved logistics and base-year CPI adjustments amplified the effect.
Unlike past seasonal dips, these reductions are bolstered by policy-driven supply gains, with market surveys confirming drops across 36 states and the FCT.
Real-World Examples from Markets
In Lagos’ Mile 12 Market, a 50kg bag of beans fell from ?230,000 to ?105,000, and onions dropped from ?200,000 to ?35,000.
In Abuja, palm oil prices eased from ?77,000 to ?66,000 per 250L drum, and sweet potatoes went from ?50,000 to ?30,000.
In Benue, pepper bags plummeted from ?135,000 to ?30,000-?35,000. Social media reports align, with garri at ?500/kg (down from ?1,600) and spaghetti cartons nearing ?10,000 from ?13,000.
Challenges and Outlook
Despite the progress, imported foods like wheat-based products rose 11.3% due to FX volatility.
Insecurity adds ?5,000-?50,000 in ‘escort fees’ per trip, inflating prices in the South-East and South-South. SBM Intelligence estimates 30.6 million Nigerians still face acute food insecurity, with low-income households feeling only ‘theoretical’ relief.
The IMF projects 23% annual inflation, with risks from energy costs and weak infrastructure.
Sustaining the drop depends on the 2025 budget’s focus on mechanisation, storage, and security. If successful, prices could fall further into 2026, potentially below 2023 levels, boosting exports and supporting the ?70,000+ minimum wage.