Nigeria’s oil revenue prospects are under renewed threat as the country’s crude oil production slipped to its lowest level in 11 months, raising concerns over the country’s ability to meet fiscal targets for 2025.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) revealed that the country’s production fell to 1.39 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, down from 1.43 million bpd recorded in August.
This development indicates a two-month straight decline after falling to 1.43 million bpd in August from 1.51 million bpd in July.
According to the Commission, the total crude oil and condensate production for September 2025 fell to an average of 1.581 million barrels per day, with total condensate at 191,373 million bpd.
NUPRC stated, ‘In September, the industry recorded total crude oil and condensate production of 47.43 million barrels, which reflects a modest 1.61% year-on-year increase in average daily crude oil and condensate production year on year.
‘This is a slight improvement over the 1.55 million bopd recorded in the same month of 2024, an uptick that suggests incremental progress.
‘However, when measured on a month-on-month basis, crude oil and condensate production slightly dropped by 3.09% in September 2025, compared to the 1.63 million bopd recorded in August 2025.’
Further analysis showed that the last time Nigeria’s crude production fell below the 1.4 million bpd mark was in October 2024, when the country’s oil output stood at 1.33 million bpd.
The decline highlights persistent challenges facing Africa’s biggest oil producer, including pipeline vandalism, oil theft, operational disruptions and maintenance in the Niger Delta and industrial actions by workers in the industry.
Despite ongoing efforts by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to curb losses and boost output, the figures remain well below the government’s benchmark production target of 1.78 million bpd set in the country’s budget.
Analysts say this shortfall could widen Nigeria’s fiscal deficit and limit the inflow of foreign exchange at a time when the naira continues to face severe pressure.
NUPRC attributed the development to the three-day industrial action by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN), which resulted in the shutdown of some production and export facilities.
The PENGASSAN strike began on Monday, September 29, 2025, in response to the alleged mass dismissal of workers at the Dangote Refinery.
The strike was officially directed to start at 12:01 AM on September 29, though some members were initially asked to withdraw services earlier for prayers starting on Sunday, September 28. The strike was later suspended on October 1, 2025, after a resolution with the Dangote Group.
In a statement signed by Eniola Akinkuotu, head, Media and Strategic Communication, the commission also noted that two strategic facilities had a scheduled turnaround maintenance, which led to a reduction in overall production.
NNPC has reportedly recorded a staggering consolidated revenue exceeding N25 trillion in the first eight months of the year, from January to August, according to figures released from the company’s financial summaries.
The figure quoted represents revenue made available by the state-owned oil company between April and August 2025.