Fixed-income securities yield seen to stay stable

The yield curve of fixed income market would likely to remain stable if the central bank decided to hold its rates steady, an executive of the Manulife Investment Management and Trust Corp. (MIMTC) opined last Monday.

However, if a surprise cut does happen, it could result in a flattening of the yield curve, MIMTC Head of Fixed Income Jean Olivia de Castro said. A yield curve that is less steep would encourage more demand for longer-dated bonds and support loan growth, De Castro added.

However, she said the flattening may also heighten sensitivity to the currency and food price risks.

‘Overall, the MB’s (Monetary Board) cautious approach reflects a desire to preserve policy flexibility and anchor financial stability amid lingering local and global uncertainties,’ de Castro said.

The policy-making MB of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) will meet on Thursday.

De Castro, however, said the MB is widely expected to hold its policy rate at 5 percent, balancing the recent return of inflation toward target with persistent upside risks from food supply shocks and peso volatility.

She advised fixed-income investors to have a dual approach, such as investing on short-term tenors for flexibility amid policy uncertainty, while selectively adding longer tenors to lock in at current yields.

‘With short-term yields at multi-year lows and long-term yields near 1-year lows, maintaining a defensive duration stance is advisable until inflation risks-especially from food and the currency-are better contained,’ de Castro said.

The country’s inflation rate is expected to return to the 2- to 4 percent target band defined by the BSP by the end of 2025, she said.

‘Upside risks remain, notably from sticky food prices due to supply shocks stemming from typhoons and the extended rice import ban. Additionally, potential peso weakness beyond the 58 levels could complicate the inflation outlook and recommend prudence in adjusting monetary policy. Against this backdrop, the BSP is expected to have one more rate cut before the end of the year,’ de Castro said.

She said persistent weakness of foreign direct investment may keep yields elevated on fixed income securities.

A recovery, meanwhile, could happen if infrastructure and reforms gain traction. This could enhance liquidity, lower long-term rates and improve the relative attractiveness of Philippine bonds, according to de Castro.

Cebu quake toll hits 71; search, rescue ramped up

The reported death toll of the September 30 magnitude 6.9 earthquake in Cebu has gone up to 71, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council said.

However, the agency said in its Sunday morning situation report that the count is still up for validation.

In the same report, the NDRRMC said 559 were reported injured, but the number is also still up validation.

NDRRMC added that 128,464 families or 455,631 individuals were affected by the earthquake.

A total of 405 families of 1,251 individuals are now housed in four evacuation centers.

The agency said eight road sections and 15 bridges were affected, with four roads and seven bridges remaining still unpassable on Sunday morning.

Power, NDRRMC said, has been restored in 43 localities but 48 towns and cities remain without electricity also as of Sunday morning.

The tremblor, NDRRMC said also affected communication facilities in 17 towns and cities and service has been restored in seven.

Of the three seaports affected, one has already become operational, it added.

Navy brings in materials

THE Navy (PN) on Sunday announced that one of its transport vessels, the BRP Agta (LC-290) successfully conducted a humanitarian assistance and disaster response (HADR) and brought 44.66 tons of construction materials were transported to th similarly devastated Masbate City, Masbate on October. 4.

The Navy Public Affairs Office chief, Capt. Benjo Negranza, said the hip departed Ouano Wharf, Mandaue City, Cebu on October 3, carrying essential construction materials intended to support the recovery and rehabilitation of communities severely affected by Severe Tropical Storm Opong.

This mission was made possible through the support of the Tanging Yaman Foundation, Incorporated, which coordinated with the PN to deliver much-needed aid to the disaster-stricken areas, Negranza added.

Meanwhile, Negranza said another PN vessel, the BRP Dagupan City (LS-551), departed Cavite on October 4, carrying 18,000 kilograms of relief goods bound for communities affected by the recent 6.9-magnitude earthquake that struck Cebu and nearby provinces.

Onboard are food packs, bottled water, hygiene kits, sleeping mats, and other essential relief items consolidated by the Civil Military Operations Group of the Navy (CMOG-PN) through the generous donations of private stakeholders and partner organizations.

This effort forms part of the Navy’s HADR mission to support earthquake-stricken areas.

BRP Dagupan City also transported one chemical truck, two mobile showers, one disaster response truck, two ambulances, and one special rescue vehicle provided by the Valenzuela City DRMMO, along with additional donations from Manila Water, Civil Military Operations Regiment of the Army (PA) and the Naval Reserve Center.

Transparent relief, rehab through tech

THE provincial government of Cebu has tapped University of Cebu (UC) students to help them develop an app that logs and pins requests for relief following the massive arthquake that struck the province last Sept. 30.

Dr. Nikki Catalan, health consultant of the provincial government, this app will be linked with the relief tracker of the local government.

The public, she added, will now ‘see what’s needed, where help is going, and in the long run, track rehabilitation together.’

‘Stay tuned as we continue building a more transparent and united way to bring aid where it’s needed most,’ she added.

UC students, who are taking up a Bachelor of Science in Information Technology, developed the ‘Cebu Relief App’ (https://cebu-calamity-response.vercel.app) three days ago in an aim to connect those in need with those who can help.

This app, developed by Clint Alonzo, Ralph Adriane Dilao, and Vince Clave, is a platform that connects victims of calamities.

Victims of calamities may use their app to pin their location to request urgent relief. Here, they could input their needs, such as food, water, medicine, shelter, and other essentials.

Volunteers and responders can also use the app to requests and view details by clicking the pinned locations in real-time on the map.

‘This isn’t just any app-it’s Bayanihan made digital. Every pin represents a family. Every pin represents a life,’ Alonzo said in a post on his Facebook account.

The availability of the app comes in handy especially at a time when the major roads in northern Cebu suffer a gridlock as more and more private individuals and groups travel there to bring relief causing a massive traffic jam.

Cebu Gov. Pamela Baricuatro appealed to the public to have donations centralized as she admits delivery of relief has slowed down due to the traffic gridlock.

More cops sent to help

THE National Police (PNP) on Sunday announced that it has sent more personnel and assets to ensure that the distribution of relief goods and items to quake-battered communities in Cebu are done as expedtiously as possible.

In a statement, the acting PNP Chief, Lt. Gen. Jose Melencio Nartatez Jr., said focus will be on northern areas badly battered by the earthquake.

‘The quick response and continuous hard work of our personnel on the ground not only paved the way for government assistance reaching more affected communities, especially in the northern part of Cebu, but also resulted in the gradual restoration of normalcy in the entire province,’ he said.

Nartatez said the PNP is coordinating closely with the Cebu provincial government and local disaster response teams to streamline relief distribution to remote communities.

He added that PNP officers are assisting in logistics, road clearing, security and traffic management to prioritize the transport of relief items.

Nartatez added that several mobility assets, including high-speed watercraft from the Maritime Group, have been dispatched to isolated areas.

Govt team eyes safe zones

A GOVERNMENT housing team has been deployed to northern Cebu to survey areas devastated by last week’s earthquake and locate safe ground for residents displaced by landslides and damaged homes.

Officials from the Department of Human Settlements and Urban Development (DHSUD) met with local disaster councils in Bogo City on Saturday to map out possible relocation sites for affected families.

The city is among the worst hit by the magnitude 6.8 tremor that struck on Tuesday.

The team visited Purok Joseph in Barangay Dakit, where several houses had collapsed near what geologists believed was part of the fault line that triggered the quake. Residents in the area remain in makeshift tents as local officials search for safer ground.

One of the proposed sites, a vacant lot within the city, is being considered for a temporary ‘tent city’ to house families who have yet to return home.

Housing Secretary Jose Ramon Aliling earlier directed the agency’s regional office to conduct field surveys and identify the kind of shelter support the government can provide.

The quake killed more than 70 people and injured hundreds, according to disaster officials.

More than 47,000 families were affected across Cebu, with widespread damage reported in northern towns following intense ground shaking and secondary landslides.

Dole allocates P11-M Tupad aid

AN initial P11 million in emergency employment aid has been allocated for workers affected by last week’s magnitude 6.9 earthquake in Cebu, the Department of Labor and Employment (Dole) said.

In a statement over the weekend, Dole said the amount will fund the Tulong Panghanapbuhay sa Ating Disadvantaged Workers (Tupad) program for 1,513 beneficiaries whose jobs or livelihoods were disrupted by the quake.

Tupad is a short-term employment program that provides temporary income to workers affected by disasters, economic shocks, or displacement.

Under the scheme, beneficiaries are hired for community-based work such as clearing debris, cleaning roads, or helping restore damaged public facilities in their localities.

They are also paid based on the highest prevailing minimum wage in the region.

According to Dole-Central Visayas, the initial batch of beneficiaries includes 862 workers from Cebu, 163 from San Remigio, 163 from Medellin, 81 from Sogod, 81 from Daan-Bantayan, and 163 from Bogo City.

Another 400 workers from the towns of Medellin and Tabogon are also set to receive their Tupad wages amounting to P2.004 million.

Dole said it is prioritizing aid for workers whose employment was displaced or interrupted by the calamity, includinng those from the micro, small, and medium enterprise sector.

The agency’s Cebu Provincial Office has already deployed personnel to profile affected individuals and continuously assess the situation in coordination with local government units.

The department has yet to release the total number of affected workers across the region.

Workers’ safety

LABOR Secretary Bienvenido E. Laguesma reminded employers in Cebu that workers’ safety and health should come first ‘more than anything else.’

‘Safety should always be considered, and the measures to ensure it should be the one undertaken-not simply to prohibit them [from leaving],’ Laguesma said in a recent interview.

His reminder came after the BPO Industry Employees Network (BIEN)-Cebu denounced alleged violations of occupational safety and labor standards by BPO firms during the September 30 earthquake. (Related: https://businessmirror.com.ph/2025/10/02/cebu-bpo-workers-file-complaint-against-unsafe-post-quake-policies/).

Among the reported incidents were claims that one company required agents to continue taking calls while the quake was ongoing, while another allegedly blocked exits on one floor to prevent workers from leaving.

Employees who refused to report for work were reportedly issued notices to explain, stripped of attendance incentives, and subjected to administrative sanctions.

Laguesma also clarified that BIEN-Cebu did not file a formal complaint, contrary to earlier claims in the workers’ statement.

He said the group only filed a letter requesting a dialogue, which is set to take place on Monday.

‘We also need to see which companies are involved so that our actions will be fair and impartial. This will help us determine the appropriate measures to take if it is proven that there were erring employers,’ Laguesma said.

DigiPlus, BingoPlus Foundation deploy 1,000 family relief packs to earthquake-hit Cebu

Following the 6.9 magnitude earthquake that struck Cebu and surrounding provinces on September 30, 2025, DigiPlus Interactive Corp., through its social development arm, BingoPlus Foundation, mobilized immediate assistance to the hardest-hit families residing in the island’s northern region.

On October 5, 2025, the Foundation delivered 1,000 family relief packs to the municipalities of Daanbantayan and Medellin, enabled by employee volunteers from Cebu-based BingoPlus branches.

Each pack was designed to support the immediate needs of a family of five and included 10 liters of potable water in reusable containers, 5 kilograms of rice, a hygiene kit, and basic medicine. Collectively, the effort reached 1,000 families or about 5,000 individuals across both municipalities.

‘These are communities that need swift, reliable help,’ said Paul Henczen Tamayo, BingoPlus Foundation Program Manager for Resilience and Healthcare. ‘Through our BayanihanPlus initiative, we work hand in hand with local officials and community leaders to reach the hardest-hit areas, prioritize those most in need, and get essential goods to families without delay.’ Dan Kemuel Mabano, BingoPlus Area Manager for Cebu adds, ‘While we had initially targeted the towns of Bogo and San Remigio, information on-ground advised us to go farther up into Medellin and Daanbantayan because relief goods still needed to reach those areas too.’

This deployment underscores DigiPlus and BingoPlus Foundation’s ongoing commitment to stand with Filipinos in times of crisis – leveraging the reach of its retail network to deliver immediate relief and hope to communities in need.

Don Adviento, BingoPlus Regional Manager for Visayas and Mindanao shared, ‘Following BingoPlus Foundation team’s quick deployment of relief packs from our DigiPlus warehouse in Parañaque, our employees from Cebu City, Mandaue, and Talisay volunteered to oversee the final distribution in northern Cebu.’

‘It was a challenge transporting our stocks and navigating through the congestion and aftershocks, but it is rewarding to be able to deliver much-needed help to our fellow Cebuanos. Daghang salamat (many thanks) for the teamwork – from our head office, to our branches and our LGUs (local government units),’ adds Judaline Geraldez, Branch Manager of BingoPlus Park Mall and team lead of employee volunteers deployed.

The Foundation continues to assess the evolving needs of affected communities in coordination with local government units and partner agencies as recovery progresses. For coordination, assistance, or partnership opportunities.

Despite challenges in transporting and distributing relief packs to the northernmost towns affected by the 6.9 magnitude earthquake in Cebu, BingoPlus employee volunteers remain all smiles throughout the initiative, reflecting their commitment to ‘multiply the fun’ and ‘multiply the good’ for communities they serve.

BSP may halt easing on Sept inflation-ANZ

MORE expensive rice and fuel may have increased the country’s inflation rate in September and could prompt the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to hit the brakes on its monetary policy easing this week.

This was according to ANZ Research, which said the country’s September inflation print could increase to 2.1 percent. While this is still within the BSP’s 2 to 4 percent inflation target, this is significantly higher than the 1.5 percent posted in August and 1.9 percent recorded in September 2024.

Given this, ANZ Research said this could prevent the Monetary Board from reducing policy rates further. This means the country’s key interest rates could stay at 5 percent.

‘The BSP has so far lowered rates by a cumulative 150 bp [basis point] in the current cutting cycle. At its last meeting, the central bank characterized the current policy rate as appropriate given manageable inflation and output near potential,’ ANZ Research said.

‘However, real rates remain restrictive amid subdued inflation. We think that the BSP will wait for the Q3 [third quarter] GDP data, out in November, before cutting rates by another 25 bp in December,’ it added.

ANZ Research said, however, noted that while key policy rates have been reduced by 150 bps, it has not translated into lower interest rates for local Filipinos.

Citing BSP data, ANZ Research said, non-performing loans remained above prepandemic levels. Consumer loans in Asian countries like the Philippines still account for 22-29 percent of total loans.

‘In these economies, sustained stress in this segment is likely dampening monetary policy transmission, particularly through the lending channel,’ ANZ Research said.

The think tank said lending standards in the Philippines have become more stringent. ANZ Research said ‘banks in both economies [India and the Philippines] are surprisingly cautiously optimistic about a recovery in demand for loans.’

Earlier, the BSP reported that loans extended by Universal and Commercial Banks (UKBs) posted their slowest growth in nine months.

BSP data showed loans from UKBs grew 11.2 percent in August 2025, the slowest since the 11.1 percent posted in November 2024. In April 2025, these loans also grew 11.2 percent.

The data showed that after adjusting for seasonal fluctuations, outstanding UKB loans increased by 0.4 percent month-on-month in August.

BTr eyes more foreign holders of government debt papers

THE Philippines is eyeing higher foreign holdings in peso-denominated government bonds, boosted by the possible inclusion in the JP Morgan bond index.

On the sidelines of the Philippine Development Forum last Monday, National Treasurer Sharon P. Almanza told reporters that having a bigger foreign participation rate is better.

‘We want to increase participation. But since we haven’t really seen before that it’s too high, we want to manage the impact volatility in terms of rates domestically and peso,’ Almanza said, adding that a 10-percent foreign participation rate is also a ‘good number.’

According to the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr), foreign ownership of peso-denominated government bonds amounted to $12.78 billion or roughly P728.46 billion.

The foreign participation rate has more than tripled, increasing from 1.8 percent in 2021 to 6.03 percent as of August 2025.

Almanza said foreign holdings of government bonds rose from P400 billion at the start of the year to over P700 billion.

However, Almanza said: ‘We also have to manage the volatility because this month, although in and out, we’ve seen sell-offs, especially the fast money or hedge funds.’

The sell-off, Almanza noted, is not isolated to the Philippines, as even regional counterparts are experiencing the same.

The alleged corruption unveiling in the government is also not seen as a factor that could hinder the Philippines’ possible inclusion in the JP Morgan bond index, Almanza added.

‘It’s not because of the corruption issue [here], but it’s really because of the United States. This is more of an external development than domestic,’ Almanza said.

The Philippine Peso-denominated government bonds (RPGBs) have been placed on Index Watch-Positive for potential inclusion in the widely tracked JP Morgan Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) series.

Being placed on the positive watchlist signals the possible inclusion in the bond index, which is a key benchmark for international investors.

Entry into the index could expand the country’s investor base, deepen the market and reduce reliance on foreign currency borrowings to support growth.

If the Philippines were included, it would have a weight of about 1 percent of the GBI-EM Global Diversified Index, covering government bonds issued since 2023 with tenors of up to 20 years.

The watch period is expected to run six to nine months, with updates and rebalancing estimates due in the first quarter of 2026.

SEC wants to tweak rules to fortify REITs

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will expand the assets that may be infused into real estate investment trusts (REIT) in its bid to encourage more companies to list their properties.

SEC Chairman Francis E. Lim said the commission has its own ideas on how to amend the rules, such as redefining income-generating assets.

‘For example, the toll roads, although the company is not the owner, but it has a real right to operate the highway in that long piece of land, that’s a ‘reitable’ asset,’ Lim said.

According to the REIT Act of 2009, an income-generating real estate are those properties that are held for the purpose of generating a regular stream of income, such as rentals, toll fees, user’s fees and the like, as may be further defined and identified by the SEC.

The law gave the SEC the authority to ‘promulgate rules to include real rights over real property, provided they generate interest or other regular payments to the REIT.’

Lim said the agency can include power plants or cell towers, which can be characterized as real estate.

‘They are, under the law, considered immovable properties,’ he said. ‘Real estate assets are immovable properties and therefore by definition under the civil court, they are real property and therefore if they generate income on a regular basis, that’s a ‘reitable’ asset.’

Passed by Congress in 2009, the REIT law did not take off immediately in the country amid issues on public ownership and taxation on asset transfers.

Ayala Land Inc.-backed Areit Inc. was the first to brave the market and listed at the height of the pandemic in August 2020. Four more REITs followed suit the following year in 2021-DoubleDragon Corp.’s DDMP REIT Inc., Filinvest REIT Corp., Megaworld’s Mreit Inc. and the Gokongwei’s RL Commercial REIT Inc.

In 2022, the Villar group added two of its own-VistaREIT Inc. in June and Premiere Island Power REIT Corp. in December-along with Citicore Energy REIT Corp. of the owners of Megawide Construction Corp.

St. Luke’s: New hospital to open in 2031

St. Luke’s Medical Center Inc. is moving the target opening of its third hospital in Aseana in Parañaque to 2031, two years later than its original projection of 2029.

Dennis P. Serrano, the hospital’s CEO, said the plans are already in place for the St. Luke’s Aseana, which will cost about P12 billion to build.

‘It’s going to be the same size as BGC [Bonifacio Global City]. It’s about 500 beds. We’re winding up on our design phase for our Asiana Hospital,’ Serrano said. ‘We’re hoping to start construction by September of next year. But we’re building in a reclaimed area. So, even before we start construction, there has to be a lot of piling that has to be done.’

‘And it’s peculiar to build in Aseana. You can’t dig down because it’s reclaimed land. You can’t build too high up because you’re very near the airport.’

Serrano said the hospital will start hiring people in 2028, training them in its two medical centers in Quezon City and in Taguig so that the new facility will have necessary talent when it opens in about six years.

‘It’s a big project. But we’ve done it before in (Bonifacio) Global City, obviously, which opened in 2010,’ Serrano said. ‘(Our personnel) should be already very well trained by the time the hospital opens its doors.’

Serrano, who has 15 years of experience in robotic surgery, said the hospital is in the planning stage.

‘We are in the age of artificial intelligence. We are in the age of precision medicine, molecular medicine, molecular oncology.

‘And there’s an explosion of all of these new technologies. But we really have to navigate through all of that. We’re also in the age of digital transformation,’ he said.

St. Luke’s has completed over 2,500 robotic surgeries, the highest number of robotic-assisted procedures performed by any hospital in the country.

This achievement was certified by DTG Medical Inc., which affirmed St. Luke’s position as the hospital with the highest number of robotic-assisted surgeries in the Philippines.

Marcos cautions vs rushing cases in flood-project probe

PRESIDENT Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. has cautioned government investigators against filing half-baked cases in the ongoing probe of alleged irregularities in public infrastructure projects, saying that weak cases could end up protecting rather than punishing those involved.

Speaking in an interview teaser released Sunday, Marcos said filing cases without sufficient evidence would only expose lapses in due process and risk acquittals that could weaken public trust in the government’s anti-corruption campaign.

‘Look, what will happen is this: we rushed it, our evidence isn’t complete, our evidence is weak, but we forced it anyway-and then we lost the case. Can you imagine? I think that would be much, much, much, much worse,’ he said, partly in Filipino.

The President acknowledged that many individuals linked to questionable infrastructure spending ‘are not innocent,’ but said that guilt must be proven through evidence, not assumption.

‘We know many of these people are not innocent, but if you’re going to bring them to court, you must have a very strong case,’ Marcos said.

He also stressed that the government’s credibility hinges on its ability to follow the same laws it seeks to enforce.

‘We have to follow the law. Otherwise, whatever we do is not legitimate. And we have to be very, very clear that we go after the guilty ones,’ he added.

The warning comes as the Independent Commission for Infrastructure (ICI) has started probing alleged irregularities in flood control and other projects under the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH).

The body, created by the President last month, is tasked to look into the misuse of public funds in infrastructure spending, particularly projects that were either substandard or never completed in the last 10 years.

It is chaired by former Supreme Court Associate Justice Andres Reyes, with former Public Works Secretary Rogelio ‘Babes’ Singson and SGV and Co. country managing partner Rosanna Fajardo as members.

The creation of the ICI follows Marcos’s State of the Nation Address in July, where he publicly called out those behind questionable flood control projects.

The administration also later on launched the ‘Sumbong sa Pangulo’ platform to allow citizens to report defective or non-existent infrastructure projects in their communities.

Cebu taxpayers given October 31 deadline by BIR

TAXPAYERS in Cebu are given until October 31 to file returns, pay taxes and submit the required documents after the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) extended deadlines in the wake of the 6.9-magnitude earthquake.

The deadline was moved by Internal Revenue Commissioner Romeo D. Lumagui Jr. via Revenue Memorandum Circular (RMC) 088-2025, to ‘provide relief to taxpayers,’ taking into account the strong earthquake that struck Cebu on September 30.

According to the BIR, the RMC would benefit taxpayers and BIR personnel under the jurisdiction of the following Revenue District Offices: 80 (Mandaue City, Cebu); 81 (Cebu City, North); 82 (Cebu City, South); 83 (Talisay City, Cebu); and, 123 (Large Taxpayers Division-Cebu), including their authorized agent banks. The complete list of covered BIR forms and returns is in the RMC.

‘This extension allows our taxpayers sufficient time to comply with their tax obligations without adding to the burdens caused by the calamity,’ Lumagui was quoted as saying in a statement issued by his office last Monday.

‘This reaffirms our commitment to responsive, compassionate, and excellent taxpayer service, especially during times of crisis,’ he added.

Moreover, taxpayers covered by the RMC will be exempt from the imposition of penalties, surcharges and interest.

This applies on the condition that all tax returns, payments and other required submissions are completed within the extended deadline.

Hustle economy: 93% of Nigerians engaged in ‘survivalist’ informal employment

Nigeria’s economy is running on a ‘survivalist’ mode, as 93 percent of the nation’s workforce is trapped in informal employment, according to a report.

The findings are based on the 2025 report by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) titled ‘From Hustle to Decent Work: Unlocking Jobs and Productivity for Economic Transformation in Nigeria’.

The report highlights that there is an overwhelming reliance on informal, often ‘survivalist’ activities which are actively hindering national development and poverty reduction.

Analysis reveals that 81 percent of Nigerian workers are concentrated in sectors like subsistence agriculture and retail trade, which offers very low productivity.

The jobs in particular, ranges from petty trading and informal transport to roadside services engaged by millions of Nigerians.

These form of work offers severely limited opportunity for productivity gains and income mobility.

According to Dr. Musa Yusuf, Founder of the centre for the promotion of private enterprise, ‘Those are the people sustaining the economy through creativity, resilience and hard work. Yet, from a policy point of view, the informal sector receives little serious attention’

‘If the sector delivers over 90 percent of jobs, what is the policy framework to support it? Many operators are harassed as markets demolished, artisans displaced, mechanics taxed and fined.Their contribution to the economy is over N60 trillion, dominant in trade, agriculture and blue-collar work.’

In a similar vein, Chinwe Egwim, Economist and banker notes, it’s not surprising that over 90 percent of jobs are in the informal sector. Many Nigerians lack the necessary skills and education to fill roles in the formal sector, leading to high underemployment’.

The productivity trap

According to the report, the scale of informal work is directly linked to Nigeria’s long-standing struggles with low labour productivity.

For nearly three decades, from 1990 to 2018, Nigeria’s labour productivity growth averaged a meagre 1.5 percent and has since been in decline.

This contrasts sharply with nations like Indonesia and Malaysia, which saw gains of 2.5 percent over the same period, demonstrating the potential for growth with sustained economic reforms.

This deeply entrenched issue is compounded by persistent national crises, including inadequate infrastructure, erratic power supply, low industrial output, and widespread insecurity.

The shrinking formal sector

The root cause of this informal explosion is the inability of the formal private sector to generate adequate jobs.

Over the last decade (2015-2024), macroeconomic instability marked by two economic recessions, a volatile currency, and soaring inflation, has increased the cost of doing business, constraining firms’ capacity to expand and hire.

Formal jobs accounted for a meagre 7.8 percent of total employment as of 2023, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS, 2024), which underscores a weak private sector.

Furthermore, only 15 percent of all employed Nigerians are wage earners, meaning 85 percent are self-employed, often operating outside the protection of formal labour laws.

This labour market is strained further by an estimated 3.5 million young Nigerians entering the workforce annually. Many are forced into underemployment, taking on roles like PoS operations and informal transport gigs that are below their potential.

Regional disparities

The crisis is not uniform across Nigeria, and regional disparities highlight the uneven economic landscape.

While states like Lagos, the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), and Oyo show the highest shares of wage earners (Lagos at 33.8 percent, FCT at 27.2 percent), indicating a relatively stronger, albeit still insufficient, private sector base, the northern states tell a different story.

The northern states like Jigawa (3.3 percent), Sokoto (3.8 percent), and Kebbi (4.6 percent) have the lowest shares of wage earners, highlighting a heavy reliance on government and informal activities for employment.

Skill deficit and talent migration

Exacerbating the job crisis is a severe skills deficit.

Employers report struggling to find workers with the necessary technical and soft skills, such as problem-solving and digital literacy for the few mid-productivity jobs that are available.

An emerging and compounding problem is ‘japa,’ the increasing migration of skilled Nigerian workers.

Professionals in medicine, ICT, finance, and professional services are leaving for countries with better pay and working conditions, creating a growing talent gap that further weakens the capacity of domestic firms to grow, innovate, and compete in a low-productivity environment.

The informal sector, which climbed to 93 percent of total employment in the second quarter of 2024, has dire national implications. Firstly, limited revenue mobilisation is a key consequence, as informality undermines the government’s ability to collect taxes effectively.

Unlocking Nigeria’s potential hinges on fundamental structural reforms aimed at strengthening the formal private sector, addressing the skills gap through education investment, and creating a macroeconomic environment that incentivises business expansion and, crucially, the creation of decent, high-productivity jobs at scale.

Similarly, Egwum advised, ‘We need to strengthen education and skills acquisition, and investing more in the blue-collar economy. If sectors like plumbing, welding, and similar trades are better structured, we would see these numbers decline significantly’.