As of last week, according to the latest reports from the Overseas Workers Welfare Administration (Owwa) and the Department of Migrant Workers (DMW), 6,532 overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) and their dependents have been repatriated from the Middle East, due to the region-wide turmoil caused by the United States and Israel’s war against Iran.
That may seem like a small drop in the total number of Middle East-based OFWs-an estimated 2 million-plus-but the Owwa and DMW expect that many more Filipino workers will seek repatriation in the coming weeks and months as the region continues to simmer.
The returning OFWs mostly come from countries such as Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Lebanon, Qatar, and Bahrain, as well as Israel. With Iran attacking neighboring countries in retaliation for what it perceives as their support for the US and Israel’s aggression, the entire region has been dragged into the conflict, with the effects on the global economy projected to linger for years to come.
Whatever happens in the Middle East has particularly stark implications for the Philippines. Not only has the war’s disruptions on oil and commodity shipments triggered painful spikes in the prices of fuel and goods in the local market, but if the conflict stays unresolved or, worse, escalates, the potential displacement of hundreds of thousands of OFWs presents a vastly more consequential problem.
Critical lifeline
The war has been an ‘unprecedented shock’ for the region’s economies, as the International Monetary Fund put it, with five of the Gulf’s eight oil- and gas-producing countries-Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar-headed for a contraction in their gross domestic product this year. The three major producers in the group-Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman-will be able to stay above water but with markedly slower growth.
Those five most affected countries alone host approximately 500,000 to over 600,000 Filipino workers. They now face the prospect of being sent home, if not because of the direct destruction of their workplaces and accommodations, then from potential widespread job layoffs as their host countries’ economies reel from the conflict.
In the immediate term, the Philippines stands to lose, or at least receive much less of, some $6.5 billion in remittances-about 18 percent of the country’s total remittance earnings-sent by OFWs from the region. These funds primarily drive household consumption, keeping Filipino families afloat by giving them cash for daily needs, education, health care, and other immediate concerns. One shudders at the idea of millions of Filipino homes suddenly losing this critical lifeline.
Reintegration program
The United Nations Development Programme has warned that up to 32.5 million additional people worldwide could be pushed into poverty because of the war. In the Asia-Pacific region, that would be some 8.8 million people. In the Philippines specifically, due to the cascading effects of higher fuel prices alone, around 1.34 million Filipinos are at risk of falling into poverty, according to the Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
Against this urgent backdrop, the administration now has its hands full squeezing and reprioritizing the budget to address the immediate needs of those hardest hit by the fuel shock, such as transport drivers and delivery workers.
Displaced OFWs are another sector that requires quick assistance, and the Owwa has requested an additional P12-billion budget for the repatriation and reintegration of these workers.
Owwa said its initial emergency repatriation funding amounted to only around P1.286 billion, of which over P700 million has been spent. About P9 billion of the requested P12 billion in extra funding will pay for more emergency repatriations, including immediate financial assistance to affected OFWs. The remaining P3 billion will be for their reintegration program covering livelihood assistance, skills training, business loans for start-up ventures, counseling, and financial literacy training.
Monumental challenge
The agency has estimated that, should the war not ease up, some 60,000 OFWs may end up being forcibly uprooted from the Middle East. That is a staggering number that the country has to prepare for-not only in terms of quick funding, such as the additional allocation that should be given Owwa posthaste, but also in the work of resettling these Filipino workers in their homeland with dignity, and eventually harnessing, or upgrading if need be, their skills and know-how.
The Marcos administration has a monumental challenge in its hands in making sure such reintegration efforts do go somewhere. Are conditions in the country becoming viable enough for returning OFWs to decide to stay for good-to build a business, or work in a local firm, and generally take their chances on the home front? Or would they feel that the country, after all this time, has yet to get its act together-that better prospects remain abroad, even in the face of war and uncertainty?