The president of the National Unity Platform (NUP), Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, aka Bobi Wine, has clearly demonstrated, for the second time, that he is a popular politician. People really like him. They mob him. They want to listen to what he has to say. There is no doubt that Bobi Wine and jailed Opposition veteran Kizza Besigye are the only politicians President Museveni considers real challengers. The rest – and they are many – do not appeal to voters the way these two men do.
Bobi Wine’s campaign is going well – so far. In every district where he has held rallies, he has been greeted by cheering, delirious crowds. Some crowds are so huge that haters may start to claim the photos are digitally manipulated to make the crowds seem large. On the popularity test, Bobi Wine does considerably better than, apart from (perhaps) Dr Besigye, any presidential candidate who has tried to challenge Mr Museveni for the presidency.
No politician – including those who became politicians long before Bobi Wine knew he would join politics – has ever attracted crowds the way he has and secured a decent proportion of the vote. Next year’s election will bring to 33 the number of Ugandans who have run for president since 1996. The percentages won by well-known politicians in previous elections were laughably small. The percentages that will be won by new entrants such as Frank Kabinga Bulira, Mubarak Munyagwa and Nathan Nandala Mafabi, will not be any different.
In 2021, Bobi Wine polled 35.08 percent. This contrasts sharply with that of Patrick Oboi Amuriat (3.26 percent in 2021), Gen Mugisha Muntu (0.65 percent in 2021), Amama Mbabazi (1.39 percent in 2016) and Nobert Mao (1.86 percent in 2011 and 0.56 percent in 2021). Bidandi Ssali, who said he doubts Bobi Wine can lead Uganda, polled 0.44 percent in 2011. Beti Kamya got 0.66 percent in 2011; Abed Bwanika won 0.90 percent in 2016; 0.65 percent in 2011 and 0.95 percent in 2006; Aggrey Awori secured 1.4 percent in 2001; John Ssebaana Kizito polled 1.58 percent in 2006; and Paul Ssemogerere garnered 23.6 percent in 1996.
While Bobi Wine’s rallies are well attended and he continues to pull crowds like a magnet, it is not clear whether the crowds will translate into votes.
Crowds are made up by all sorts of people. Some are not even registered voters. Others support Bobi Wine’s political nemesis, Museveni, but turn up to be part of the excitement and because they do not have better things to do. As things stand, and if I may use social media speak, Bobi Wine has ‘likes’, not ‘shares’ and ‘comments’. Many people know that liking something on social media does not necessarily mean you understand it, you have taken time to engage with it.
Crowds have proven to be deceptive in past elections. When Mr Mbabazi declared in 2014 that he would challenge Mr Museveni in the 2016 race, he visited eastern Uganda and attracted decent crowds, but they did not translate into winning votes.
In 1996, the DP’s (late) Ssemogerere finished his campaign in Mukono and on his way back to Kampala, he had mammoth crowds stretching miles on Jinja Road.
But Ssemogerere did not even win at a polling station in Nkumba, where he cast his ballot. Bobi Wine’s challenge lies in not having enough capacity to hunt votes in every single village in Uganda. Mr Museveni and his ruling NRM have that capacity. If Mr Museveni is addressing a large rally, say, in Nebbi, there is a good chance that his campaign managers will comb every village in the district looking for votes.