The political scene in Rakai District is experiencing a significant shift as the National Unity Platform (NUP) and independent candidates continue to lead in local politics, challenging the long-standing dominance of the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM), which has held power in the area for a long time.
From Buyamba Constituency to Kooki Constituency, the winds of change appear to be blowing strongly against the NRM camp.
Cracks in the NRM fortress For four decades, Rakai has been an NRM stronghold. But as the January 2026 general election draws closer, voter sentiment seems to be shifting. The once-solid
‘Museveni vote’ is being eroded by growing discontent among the youth, who cite unemployment, poor service delivery, and corruption as key reasons for seeking change.
‘The youth are tired of empty promises,’ says Mr James Kakaire, a resident of Kasankala Sub-county. ‘They want leaders who can relate to their struggles, not those who have stayed in power for decades with nothing to show.’
Mr Kakaire adds that Rakai has only six kilometres of tarmac despite President Museveni’s long-standing pledge to construct the Lumbugu-Lwamaggwa-Lyantonde Road.
At the centre of this political storm is Ms Juliet Ssuubi Kinyamatama, the incumbent District Woman MP, who has represented Rakai since 2016 on the NRM ticket. She now faces what could be her toughest race yet.
Her two main challengers, Ms Asha Lubyayi Kayanja, running as an independent after disputed NRM primaries, and Ms Grace Nalubega, the NUP flagbearer, have significantly weakened her hold on the electorate.
Elly Kayanja factor and a family rift
Retired Maj Gen Elly Kayanja, a respected figure in Rakai, recently criticised the NRM’s internal processes, alleging widespread malpractice during the July party primaries.
His sister, Ms Asha Lubyayi Kayanja, lost to Ms Kinyamatama in the Woman MP race but contested the outcome, accusing the incumbent of using state machinery to intimidate voters.
Despite her petition to the NRM Secretariat, Ms Kayanja’s case was dismissed, and she was advised to support the official flagbearer, a directive she rejected before declaring her independent candidacy.
‘Kayanja’s decision to stand as an independent has split the NRM vote,’ explains political analyst Mr David Ssenkungu.
‘Her supporters, especially women and youth groups, now see her as a symbol of resistance against injustice within the party.’
The split has also worked to the advantage of NUP’s Grace Nalubega, who is drawing support from voters frustrated by the NRM’s internal wrangles.
Observers believe that the combination of Kayanja’s defiance and Nalubega’s rising popularity could cost the ruling party dearly in a Woman MP race it has held for over two decades.
Buyamba Constituency
In Buyamba Constituency, Mr Gyaviira Ssemwanga, the incumbent MP and NRM flagbearer, who sailed through unopposed in 2021, now faces stiff competition from veteran politician Amos Mandela, who once held the seat between 2011 and 2016 before losing to Mr Ssemwanga in the 2021 NRM primaries.
This time, Mr Mandela has returned to the political arena as an independent, capitalising on voter frustration over internal wrangles within the NRM.
‘Mandela’s comeback is driven by anger,’ says Mr Kakaire.
‘Many voters feel cheated in the primaries and want to express that at the ballot box.’
Adding to Mr Ssemwanga’s woes is Mr Osborn Desire Kayima, a youthful NUP candidate who has quickly captured the hearts of young voters. His energetic campaign, built around messages of inclusivity, accountability, and youth empowerment, is drawing growing crowds across trading centres in the constituency.
‘Young people in Buyamba are mobilising themselves,’ says campaign volunteer Moses Asiimwe. ‘They want to prove that the days of NRM dominance in the constituency are numbered.’
Kooki Constituency
Across Kooki Constituency, the political equation has shifted dramatically since Mr Boaz Kasirabo, the long-serving legislator, declined to seek re-election for personal reasons.
His departure opened the field for new entrants, with Mr Didas Kabumbuza Tayebwa, the NRM flagbearer, emerging as a frontrunner.
Mr Kasirabo’s supporters say he encouraged them to ‘look for another capable leader’, a move widely interpreted as a silent endorsement of Tayebwa’s bid.
‘Tayebwa has exhibited political maturity and a deep understanding of local issues,’ says Ms Grace Nabirye, a teacher from Kyalulangira.
‘People feel he can represent them in Parliament better.’ The race, however, remains competitive.
Mr Eriab Ssango of NUP has emerged as Tayebwa’s main challenger, while Lecoboam Ssengabi of the Democratic Front (DF) Party and independent candidate Samuel Ssengabi are also in the race.
Analysts describe it as a two-horse race between Tayebwa and Ssango, reflecting the broader national struggle between independents and NUP in regions once considered NRM bastions. They attribute the shift to three main factors: the growing influence of youth voters, divisions within the NRM, and widespread dissatisfaction with local governance.
The district’s poor roads, dilapidated health facilities, and struggling schools have fuelled resentment among residents who feel left behind by a government that has been in power for four decades.
‘We vote in every election, but our livelihoods don’t change,’ says Ms Harriet Namubiru, a trader from Lwamaggwa Town.
‘Maybe it’s time to try something different.’ As campaigns intensify ahead of the 2026 general election, one thing is clear: Rakai District has become a key battleground in Uganda’s evolving political future.
Whether the NRM can reclaim its lost ground, or whether NUP and independents complete their takeover, remains to be seen.