The ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) is intensifying efforts to reclaim the Busoga sub-region, which slipped into the hands of the opposition National Unity Platform (NUP) in the previous polls. However, political actors and residents say the ruling party faces an uphill task, citing unresolved grievances.
Former Iganga Municipality mayor David Balaba said the challenges that led to NRM’s poor performance in the last election remain largely unaddressed.
“What happened last time is most likely to happen again because the party has failed to solve the problems that affected it in the previous elections,” Balaba said.
He pointed to the army’s deployment on the lakes, which marginalized fishing communities, persistent complaints of unfair practices in the sugarcane sector, and the stalled development of Busoga University. “The government claimed it returned Busoga University to the people, but the work there is not moving as expected. People are watching,” he said.
Jinja Southern East councillor candidate Julius Kayiira argues that beyond specific policy issues, voter discontent with NRM’s long stay in power is the party’s biggest challenge.
“The major problem disturbing NRM is longevity in power. People are simply tired. Even if they do everything, they may not win back Ugandans,” Kayiira said.
He added that some voters are irritated by President Museveni’s continued appearance on the ballot, believing he has already done his part. “40 years is enough,” some say.
Kayiira echoed concerns about the militarisation of lakes in Busoga, saying the deployment harms livelihoods. “A lot of people have lost property and businesses because of the army presence on the lake. That has contributed greatly to the hatred of this government,” he said.
He cited abductions and alleged human rights violations, saying, “We have seen people being taken away by drones in an illegal way. Many people are in prison because of their political beliefs.”
Kayiira accused the government of meddling in Busoga Kingdom affairs, saying it has disheartened loyalists.
“For years, this government has used divide-and-rule tactics, funding factions vying for the Kyabazinga position, and our people know it,” he said.
Luuka District’s Karim Menya noted that such interference has undermined the kingdom’s neutrality. “This partisan influence has weakened the kingdom’s independence, stopping leaders from speaking openly on sub-region issues for fear of angering the government,” Menya said.
Resident Mariam Kagoda believes NRM will struggle in Busoga due to the fallout from the ruling party’s Central Executive Committee (CEC) elections, particularly the defeat of former Speaker Rebecca Kadaga.
“I am sure NRM is going to lose this region again because of the Kadaga effect. The way our daughter was treated was not called for,” Kagoda said.
Kadaga lost the NRM CEC election to Anita Among, the current Speaker of Parliament. After losing, Kadaga criticized the process, alleging bribery and intimidation, but later urged Basoga supporters to unite behind President Museveni.
In the 2021 elections, NUP leader Robert Kyagulanyi defeated Museveni in Busoga by 32,197 votes. Museveni won only three districts, while Kyagulanyi took seven.
NRM is now working to regain ground, citing efforts to address past issues. First Deputy Prime Minister Rebecca Kadaga said the party is gradually regaining support, highlighting improvements in the sugarcane sector and infrastructure projects.