Kenya’s exports to China collapsed to their lowest level in five years in 2025 as imports surged at double-digit rates, pushing the trade deficit with the Asian giant to an all-time high.
Fresh data collated by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows that exports fell by 35.7 percent, the steepest rate in at least a decade, to Sh16.9 billion last year from Sh26.3 billion in 2024, reversing gains built over the previous three years.
In contrast, imports jumped by 16.5 percent to Sh671.2 billion from Sh576.1 billion, driven by strong demand for construction materials, industrial inputs and technology equipment, partly tied to expansion in infrastructure projects.
The combined effect saw Kenya’s trade deficit with China widen by 19.0 percent, growing from Sh549.8 billion in 2024 to a record Sh654.3 billion in 2025 – the largest imbalance on record.
Export slump
KNBS attributed the export slump largely to a decline in key commodities, particularly titanium ores and concentrates, as well as macadamia nuts, which have recently underpinned Kenya’s limited earnings from exports to China.
Titanium ores mined in Kwale since 2013 were exhausted in 2024, with the last consignment shipped in early 2025, marking the end of a key foreign exchange earner within the extractives sector.
The Agriculture and Food Authority, the sector regulator, also imposed a ban on the harvest and export of macadamia nuts, seeking to allow the crop to mature and protect Kenya’s premium quality reputation in global markets, including China.
The twin shocks exposed the fragility of Kenya’s export base to China, which remains narrow and heavily dependent on a handful of primary commodities.
Other leading exports to China during the year included copper waste and scrap, tea, coffee and manganese ores, underscoring the continued dominance of low-value and semi-processed goods.
Import surge
On the other hand, KNBS data paints a starkly different picture on the import side, with Kenya’s purchases from China dominated by high-value manufactured products and capital goods essential for economic activity.
Kenya’s import basket from China was dominated by flat-rolled iron and non-alloy steel products, alongside other steel products, electronics and telecommunications equipment, printed circuits, telephone and data transmission apparatus, as well as crushing and grinding machinery.
‘There were increased imports of crushing and grinding machines, chemical fertiliser, containers for compressed or liquefied gas, and iron and steel from China,’ KNBS wrote in the 2026 Economic Survey, published last Wednesday.
The jump in the import bill reflects heightened activity in the construction and industrial sectors, as well as investments by businesses expanding production capacity and upgrading technology.
Trade imbalance
The imbalance highlights the structural nature of Kenya’s trade ties with China.
KNBS data shows China accounted for 24.2 percent of Kenya’s total imports of Sh2.77 trillion in 2025, cementing its position as the country’s largest source of goods.
However, China absorbed a measly 1.15 percent of Kenya’s Sh1.12 trillion exports, illustrating the stark asymmetry that continues to define the bilateral trade relationship.
The deterioration in 2025 comes despite renewed efforts by the government to boost exports to China through improved market access and trade facilitation measures.
The latest figures, however, suggest that translating policy momentum into tangible export growth will likely take time, particularly given the structural constraints facing Kenya’s export sector.
Analysis of historical data suggests that a collapse in exports alongside surging imports in 2025 reflects both supply-side disruptions and entrenched demand for imported inputs critical to Kenya’s economic activity.