The battle for the Northern vote is shaping up as one of the defining contests of the 2027 presidential election, with political actors and analysts sharply divided over the prospects of Peter Obi in the region.
The latest dispute followed comments by Abdul Danbature, National President of the Arewa Youth Assembly for Good Leadership, who declared that Northern youths would not support Obi, the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), unless he secured their backing.
Danbature argued that Obi had failed to consult Northern youths before declaring his presidential ambition, insisting that the region would be more favourably disposed towards a candidate identified with the political legacy of former President Muhammadu Buhari.
However, his position has met resistance from political analysts and supporters of the emerging Obi-Kwankwaso alliance, who questioned whether any individual or youth organisation could legitimately speak for millions of young voters across Northern Nigeria.
Political analyst Abba Gwale said Obi remained a competitive force in parts of the North, arguing that the former Anambra State governor could build on the support he attracted in the region during the 2023 presidential election.
According to Gwale, the importance of the Northern electorate cannot be overstated in a presidential contest in which candidates must assemble a sufficiently broad national coalition to prevail.
He noted that Obi made significant inroads among Northern Christian voters, particularly younger Nigerians, during the 2023 election, suggesting that those gains could provide a foundation for a stronger campaign in 2027.
The analyst also identified the choice of running mate as a potentially decisive factor in Obi’s Northern strategy. He argued that a ticket involving former Kano State governor Rabiu Kwankwaso could enhance the NDC candidate’s appeal in Kano, Jigawa, Kaduna and Katsina.
Gwale, however, cautioned against assuming that Kwankwaso’s political network would automatically translate into votes for Obi.
He said the strength of any proposed alliance would ultimately depend on campaign organisation, local political structures and the preferences of voters as the election draws closer.
The FCT Coordinator of the Obi-Kwankwaso (OK) Movement, Mallam Jabir, was more dismissive of Danbature’s position, describing the claim that Northern youths would reject Obi as ‘senseless and irrational.’
Jabir accused some political groups of exploiting religious and ethnic identities as instruments of mobilisation, arguing that such tactics were increasingly being challenged by voters concerned about the broader state of the country.
He said the political conversation in the North should move beyond attempts to determine voters’ choices through ethnic or religious labels.
A similar position was taken by Kwankwasiyya Movement spokesman Habeeb Mohammed Saleh, who argued that no individual or organisation had the recognised mandate to determine how Northern youths would vote in 2027.
Saleh said there was no single political structure capable of speaking for the diverse population of Northern Nigeria, stressing that the region’s young voters were not a homogeneous bloc.
According to him, issues including insecurity, unemployment, hunger and worsening economic conditions are likely to play a greater role in shaping voting decisions than appeals to political personalities or past loyalties.
He also rejected the argument that Obi’s relationship with Buhari would determine his acceptability in the North, pointing to Obi’s performance in the region during the 2023 presidential election.
Saleh maintained that Obi obtained more than two million votes in Northern Nigeria in 2023 without the backing of Kwankwaso or the wider Kwankwasiyya political structure, arguing that this demonstrated that the former Anambra governor had an independent base of support in parts of the region.
The Kwankwasiyya spokesman further questioned whether Buhari’s political legacy alone could determine the direction of Northern votes in 2027.
For Saleh, the more consequential question is whether the political and economic conditions facing voters today will influence their choices at the ballot box.
The disagreement exposes a broader reality ahead of the 2027 election: while Northern Nigeria remains indispensable to any serious presidential campaign, its voters cannot necessarily be treated as a single political constituency.
The region’s sheer electoral weight makes it a critical battleground, but its political diversity – spanning different ethnic, religious, generational and socioeconomic interests – makes predictions about a uniform voting pattern increasingly difficult.
For Obi, the challenge is therefore twofold: consolidating the support he gained in the North in 2023 while expanding beyond the constituencies that backed him previously.
For his opponents, the task will be to prevent the former Anambra governor from converting his youth appeal, anti-establishment message and potential alliance with Kwankwaso into a broader Northern coalition.
As the 2027 contest gathers momentum, the question may not simply be whether Northern youths will support Obi, but whether any political bloc can successfully claim to speak for them.
The answer, ultimately, will be determined not by declarations from self-appointed regional representatives but by voters themselves at the ballot box.