As Nigerians come to terms with the electoral ‘tsunami’ that manifested in the political fortunes of Osun State as incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke, running on the platform of a less favoured Accord Party, defeated Bayo Oyebamiji of the ‘all-conquering’, ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), a new shift may have been launched in the politics of several states.
Political pundits are back to the drawing board to re-strategise over the implications from the Osun State poll ‘David versus Goliath’ battle scenario given the proof it provided to accentuate the vulnerability of any political party in electoral circumstances, no matter its resources and size. For instance, the humongous import of Adeleke demystifying the APC, which had invaded Osun State for the poll with literally an entire armada of the federal government at its disposal, seems to have spawned a new calculus of urgent realignments in the politics of the oil-rich, South-South Rivers State.
Of note is the trending of political permutations, which includes a sudden leadership change in the Rainbow Coalition – a political structure comprising politicians loyal to Nyesom Wike, the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), who he had used to discomfit the administration of his successor, Siminalayi Fubara, as governor of Rivers State – all through the latter’s tenure from May 2023.
Not a few observers have noticed the recent sudden withdrawal of Wike from the group’s leadership spot and the emergence of a new leader for the body in the person of Magnus Abe, who is officially designated as its chairman. Whether the development is a mere coincidence with the Osun State situation or otherwise cannot but be strategic.
The Rainbow Coalition refers to a cross-party political alliance cobbled in Rivers State for whatever purpose that means different things for different folks. Its members who are drawn from major political parties like the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Labour Party (LP), claim to pursue reconciliation for aggrieved interests in the state. In demonstrating their commitment to the reconciliation agenda, members of the coalition, led by Chairman Abe, had been holding meetings recently with Fubara, who they had hitherto embattled to near emasculation, pursuant to dousing flames of resentment across the political space of the state.
Meanwhile, the new-found reconciliation agenda of the coalition notwithstanding, a wide cross section of the Rivers State populace see their mission from the prism of the long running conflict between Wike and Fubara, which translated into a costly tussle for dominance of the politics and control of the resources of the state.
Put in perspective, the long running conflict between Wike and Fubara is estimated to have imposed a significant cost to the state in both quantifiable and unquantifiable terms.
Reliable estimates have put the figures at over N2 trillion in lost investments and an avoidable N302 billion expenditure during a six-month emergency rule period. Meanwhile, the unquantifiable component includes legislative paralysis and the denial of Fubara of a second-term bid.
This bifurcation in perspectives on the mission of the Rainbow Coalition between its members and the wider cross-section of Rivers State populace constitutes a major drawback with respect to widespread acceptance of the coalition in the state. This is just as it portends to stymy the reconciliation efforts of the group since reconciliation needs the sincerity of its driver to foster success. The challenge facing the Rainbow now is for the body to reconcile its new identity with the public perception of its proclivities.
As needs to be noted, whereas the Rivers State Rainbow Coalition borrowed its name from the US political and civil rights movement, the similarities between it and the US organisations end here. For instance, the first use of the term, Rainbow Coalition was by an American anti-racist and socialist political organisation under the leadership of Fred Hampton, which engaged in altruistic services for the benefit of various marginalised groups, first in Chicago in Illinois.
The core theme of their advocacy was involvement in social causes of class solidarity, uniting poor and working-class people across racial lines and against shared oppression. It also emphasized using direct action to pressure local governments into achieving tangible improvements, with objectives, including reducing unemployment, improving public education and counteracting gentrification.
Members of the Rainbow Coalition also sponsored a wide range of service programmes at reduced or no cost to their respective communities, such as breakfasts for children, health clinics, busing to prisons, daycare centres, clothing, ambulance services, among many other efforts.
Another popular use of the term, Rainbow Coalition, was by the late Reverend Jesse Jackson who used it to call his political platform during his 1984 U.S presidential campaign. It aimed at uniting a diverse, multicultural alliance of marginalised groups – including African Americans, Hispanics, Native Americans, Asian Americans, workers, farmers, women and others. Just like the earlier one, the objective was altruistic, being to uplift the marginalised.
Coming back to the Wike and Abe-led Rainbow Coalition, who are aspiring to define a new political direction for Rivers State, several questions await answers to earn them legitimacy to be trusted. First: What measure of altruism can be ascribed to them to qualify for trust by the Rivers State populace? Secondly, given the fixation of Nyesom Wike – being the architect of the Rainbow Coalition, on the procurement of a second term electoral victory for Tinubu in 2027, and is literally burning up any real or imagined opposition to that dispensation – What tolerance can be guaranteed to any dissenting voice that crosses path with him and members of the coalition?
Next is: In what light will Fubara’s loyalists in Rivers State see Wike and the coalition, against the backdrop of the Wike-engineered Fubara’s forced withdrawal from a second term bid, just to massage a personal ego? To put this question in a proper context is the widely acknowledged difference in governance styles between the Wike administration and that of Fubara, with the latter rated much higher than the former in terms of sensitivity, responsiveness and closeness to the governed.
While this column appreciates the aspirations of the coalition to impose a new political direction for Rivers State, they should brace up for hard knocks as the people’s response for the past sins of some of their leading lights.