Hours before the Osun off-cycle governorship election on Saturday, August 15, 2026, the tension in the state, which also gripped the entire country like a vice, was so thick that one could cut it with a blunt machete.
By the counting of three observer groups – The Kukah Centre, Kimpact Development Initiative and YIAGA-AFRICA – not less than 30 people had been killed in direct, election-related violence in Osun State. Notably, a senator, Francis Fadahunsi, bizarrely and in a blood-curdling fashion, was heard directing his followers to kill members of the Accord Party.
Bigwigs of the governing party at the centre descended, in droves, on Osun State, to lend support to their candidate. Compounding these, the Federal High Court, Abuja, at the eve of the election, had directed that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) include the candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) on the ballot. This eleventh hour order compelled INEC to do a re-print of all the ballots, result sheets and collation papers to be deployed for the election.
On the election day, there were incidents. The EU-SDGN Election Observation Hub said it recorded 38 security incidents and the perpetration of 323 cases of alleged electoral offences across 726 polling units (PUs). Vote trading was widespread.
These incidents and other cases of ballot box snatching, over-voting and attacks on voting cubicles, prompted the cancellation of results in several polling units. They, however, were not so rampant as to affect the sanctity or credibility of the election.
The commission, in spite of the last-minute court order to include the SDP, stalwartly rose to the occasion. Apart from re-printing the sensitive materials on time and at a huge cost, it was at 6.09pm on Friday, a day to the election, that they were able to achieve 100 per cent activation of 332 Registration Area Centres (RACs) and 89 Super Registration Area Centres (SUPER RACs) across Osun State.
On the election day, INEC accomplished the opening of 3,556 polling units out of a total of 3,763, thereby attaining 94.5 per cent commencement of voting at 8.30am. The outstanding 207 polling units, representing 5.5 per cent, which experienced minor delays, were operational by 9.00am.
This is not a mean feat in view of the late court order, the re-print of all the sensitive materials and the nightmarish logistics involved.
As at 11.57pm on Saturday, results for 3,544 out of the 3,763 polling units had been uploaded on the INEC Results Viewing Portal(IReV). Although glitches characterised the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) devices during the mock exercise carried out on Saturday, August 1, 2026, these challenges did not hallmark the election. The Registration Area Technical Support Staff (RATECHS) acquitted themselves well. As a result, the BVAS worked almost seamlessly across the board.
In spite of the fact that negative mobilisation by politicians and violence preceded the election, it was keenly contested. True to Osun State’s electoral pedigree, it was a three-horse race. The candidates of Accord, All Progressives Congress (APC) and the African Democratic Congress (ADC) were the leading contenders.
The turnout reflected the massive mobilisation that came before the election. Not less than 43.20 per cent of voters turned out to cast their votes. This turnout is consistent with the ones in the previous three election cycles.
In 2014, the voter turnout was 54 per cent. In 2018, it was 45 per cent, while in 2022, it was 42.16 per cent.
In other states (except Anambra, which has a recent history of low voter turnout due to violence driven by insurgency) voter turnout shows a downward trajectory, but in Osun State, it is upward-bound. It also goes above the national average when we consider that the 2023 presidential election saw a voter turnout of 26.72 per cent.
The Osun State off-cycle governorship election teaches us that when critical stakeholders in the electoral process comport themselves with professionalism and integrity, and when they work in concert, election outcomes become credible and widely accepted.
The people of Osun State deserve commendation for demonstrating a resilience that was both true to type and ennobling. Apart from coming out in their numbers to vote, many stayed put at the polling units after voting until the results were announced. Others were not done – they accompanied the results to the various stages of collation (ward, local government, state). This safeguarded the sanctity of their votes.
Since collation has been adjudged by stakeholders to be the weakest link in the chain of the electoral process, voters, in due course, should show similar vigilance in protecting the sanctity of their mandate.
The winner of this fierce contest, Adeleke Ademola Jackson Nurudeen of the Accord Party demonstrated uncommon doggedness. He showed that victory could be snatched from the jaws of imminent defeat. He underlined the fact that a courageous David can slay a hulking Goliath. And he showed that a steadfast contender, possessed of moxie and determination, could bring about the vision Marcus Aurelius, the Roman Emperor once expounded: ‘The impediment to action advances action. What stands in the way becomes the way.’
The result of Governor Adeleke’s valiant effort is that he secured 511,067 votes, as against his runner up, Oyebamiji Bola’s 444,815. He won with a margin of 66,252 votes. This is the largest margin since the conduct of the 2018 election.
Governor Adeleke’s victory should inspire members of the opposition and assure them of their prospects for victory. This is especially if they get their acts together. It should also serve as an awakening to members of the governing party who assume that they would have a smooth ride. The Titanic (ship) is in danger of being hit by an iceberg.
The last-minute court order demanding the inclusion of the SDP candidate in the ballot should compel INEC to further engage with the judiciary. Election cases should not only be accorded accelerated hearings, subsequent court orders should be given in such timely and auspicious fashion as not to jeopardise election logistics or the conduct of elections. The political class should be engaged to refrain from issuing incendiary comments that have the potential of inciting gullible supporters to resort to violence.
Lessons should be learnt from all the eight off-cycle governorship elections and the national and state houses of assembly by-elections and rerun polls so far conducted. These should be factored into the conduct of the 2027 general elections. Free, fair and credible elections are doable; we should summon the will.