PHILIPPINE shippers should book freight early in October as typhoon-related disruptions, tighter air capacity and higher fuel surcharges could complicate cargo movements, while vessel schedules and freight rates remain volatile, logistics firm Dimerco Express Group said.
The warning comes as the Philippines Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.6 in September from 54.9 in August, signaling a renewed contraction in operating conditions.
‘October is still in the peak typhoon window, so flight disruption, flooding and vessel bunching at Manila and Luzon are likely,’ Dimerco said in its October Asia-Pacific freight report for the Philippines.
‘On air, rising fuel is lifting airline and trucking surcharges. On ocean, capacity is moderately tight, rates firm and schedules volatile-book early,’ it added.
Dimerco expects Philippine air-freight capacity to remain soft in October, although rates are generally expected to stay stable.
Capacity on routes to Europe and both the United States (US) East and West coasts is projected to improve, but freight rates on all three corridors are expected to increase.
For ocean freight, Dimerco expects capacity to improve across Asia, Europe and both US coasts, while rates are forecast to rise across all major trade lanes.
The logistics firm advised shippers to secure space ahead of expected demand and disruptions. It recommends booking air freight early, particularly for cargo originating from Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan and South Korea, where available space is expected to remain tight.
For ocean shipments, Dimerco recommends booking one to two weeks ahead for intra-Asia routes and two to three weeks for long-haul shipments.
Global freight pressure
ARTIFICIAL intelligence, semiconductor demand and year-end retail shipments will support global freight activity heading into the fourth quarter, Dimerco said.
The Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.3 in August from 52.1 in July, reaching a three-month high and remaining above the 50-point threshold for a 13th consecutive month.
However, the logistics outlook for October is being shaped by several competing pressures, including the release of previously delayed China-US cargo, ocean congestion and capacity reductions around China’s Golden Week.
In air freight, Dimerco Vice President for Global Sales and Marketing Kathy Liu said current booking levels may not reflect the pressure that could emerge once delayed cargo starts moving.
‘Bookings look quiet right now, but that’s the calm before the door opens. Once held-back China-US cargo releases and ocean congestion pushes shippers into air, the space will face some constraints,’ Liu said.
In ocean freight, Dimerco said carriers are keeping capacity tight even as the traditional peak season extends into the fourth quarter.
‘Everyone expected October to mark the start of the slowdown, but the cargo hasn’t stopped and the overflow is still rolling forward,’ said Ted Chen, Dimerco’s director for Ocean Freight Global Sales and Marketing.
‘With carriers blanking sailings at short notice, the real risk isn’t port congestion; it’s space disappearing before you’ve booked it,’ Chen added.
Shippers were advised by the firm to prepare for blank sailings around October 1 to 7, which could increase the risk of cargo rollovers, and to keep alternative sailings available. They should also confirm equipment early and build additional time into delivery schedules.
Dimerco is also monitoring possible changes to US Section 301 tariffs affecting Asia-Pacific trade, the extension of the US-China trade truce to January 10, 2027, post-Golden Week capacity reductions and Panama Canal water levels that could affect capacity in the first quarter of next year.
For China-Europe shipments, the company said rail remains an alternative, with transit times of about 15 to 24 days, although truck restrictions during China’s National Day holiday could constrain first-mile capacity in early October.