Nigeria: A tale of a defenceless nation

How did the giant of Africa become a land where fear now travels faster than hope? How did a nation that once led peacekeeping missions across West Africa become a country pleading for peace within its own borders?

This is the tale of my country.

Green. White. Green.

A flag that once inspired pride now flutters over communities haunted by insurgency, banditry, kidnapping, and bloodshed. How did this menace evolve from isolated crimes into a thriving industry an economy of fear, a marketplace of human suffering?

A friend once told me that in today’s Nigeria, the fastest route to wealth is no longer hard work, innovation, or enterprise, but politics, banditry, and kidnapping. I dismissed it then. Today, I struggle to dismiss the evidence before me

A nation with millions of restless youths and millions more out of school has become fertile ground for manipulation, recruitment, and despair. A nation blessed with abundant resources has somehow become cursed by the greed of a few.

Corruption has become the backbone of our insecurity.

It feeds the monster that devours our communities. It weakens our institutions. It turns public trust into private profit. It transforms national tragedies into lucrative enterprises. Every naira stolen from public service becomes another brick in the fortress of insecurity.

Today, innocent children wake up in the morning, put on their school uniforms, and unknowingly walk into danger. Their only crime is seeking an education. Children as young as two years old find themselves in captivity, trapped in the dens of kidnappers while their families agonise

Across our land, mothers cry themselves to sleep. Fathers sell everything they own to pay ransom. Communities live under siege. Schools are abandoned. Farms are deserted. Hope itself is becoming a scarce commodity.

Meanwhile, politics marches on.

Campaigns are being planned. Alliances are being negotiated. Re-election ambitions are being nurtured while ordinary citizens bury their dead and pray not to be next.

Nigeria bleeds.

And yet, the bloodletting continues.

The painful truth is that no foreign nation can love Nigeria more than Nigerians. No outside force can build the country we refuse to build ourselves. Heaven helps those who help themselves, and history teaches that nations are saved not by miracles alone but by courageous citizens demanding accountability, justice, and good governance.

My beloved country, which way forward?

Must we continue to normalize the abnormal?

Must we continue to celebrate mediocrity while excellence suffers?

Must we continue to reward failure and expect progress?

Nigeria is standing at a crossroads between renewal and decline. The choice before us is not merely political; it is moral. It is a choice between accountability and impunity, between nation building and self destruction.

The tears in our eyes today must become the determination in our hearts tomorrow.

For despite the darkness, I still believe that Nigeria can rise again.

But only when corruption ceases to be our national creed and integrity becomes our collective covenant.

Only then shall Green, White, Green once again stand for peace, prosperity, and hope.

Written with tears in my eyes and hope in my heart.

Nigeria trade surplus jumps to record on refinery boom, oil shock

Nigeria posted its largest merchandise trade surplus on record in the first quarter of 2026, as the twin forces of the Middle East war and the long-awaited ramp-up of the Dangote refinery fundamentally reshaped the nation’s export basket and slashed its fuel import bill.

The surplus soared to N7.5 trillion in Q1 2026, surpassing the previous record of N7.42 trillion set in Q2 2025, according to BusinessDay’s analysis of the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Total exports in the first quarter were valued at N21.1 trillion, a 2.7 percent improvement from the same quarter in 2025 against imports of N13.6 trillion, a 18.1 percent decrease from the value recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2025 and lowest on record since Q2 2024.

March 2026 was an outlier even within a blockbuster quarter. Exports hit N8.8 trillion, the highest single-month value in Nigeria’s recent history.

Analysts attribute this directly to the outbreak of war in the Middle East in late February, which triggered a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a major maritime passage for roughly 25 percent of the world’s oil trade.

‘Because of the blockade, demand for Dangote products, even to the United States, increased,’ Ayo Teriba, an economist, told BusinessDay in a phone conversation. ‘Countries that weren’t importing from Dangote before now do so to compensate for the loss of supply from the Middle East.’

For the first time, refined petroleum products including Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), automotive gas oil (AGO), and kerosene-type jet fuel entered Nigeria’s top five exports, as per the NBS. Nigeria has famously been a net importer of these items.

‘You were not exporting those items at all last year. And now they dominate,’ Teriba said.

At the peak of the Middle East conflict in March, the Dangote Refinery quickly became a swing supplier.

As the war cut off cheap fuel imports from the Gulf and disrupted traditional energy routes, the 650,000-barrel-per-day Lagos facility doubled its domestic crude intake and increased exports across Africa and globally.

Taking advantage of war-related disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the refinery shipped millions of barrels of aviation fuel to the United States and made similar massive export pushes to Saudi Arabia.

The Hormuz blockade also drove oil prices past the $100 per barrel threshold. Nigeria, a major oil producer, stared at a windfall as other countries scrambled for the resource.

Yet, analysts believe it helped little to push up Nigeria’s export revenue due to the country’s inability to ramp up output.

‘Even if the price is high, you may still get disappointment,’ Teriba said. ‘Crude oil is higher, price is higher, but your output is less. You shoot yourself in the leg.’

Nigeria’s total crude output has continuously hovered around 1.4 to 1.5 million barrels per day, falling consistently short of the national budget targets and frequently struggling to hit OPEC production quotas.

Total crude oil exports stood at N11.2 trillion in Q1, up just 15 percent from the previous quarter.

Non-crude oil exports surged to N9.9 trillion, accounting for 47 percent of total exports.

Within that, liquefied natural gas and refined petroleum products alone were valued at N6.7 trillion, a 51.5 percent jump from Q4 2025.

‘We are beginning to see a structural shift in our exports,’ said Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE). ‘Before now, non-oil exports were basically cocoa and sesame seed. Now we are seeing fertiliser, urea and non-traditional exports.’

The record surplus was also a function of collapsing imports, which fell 18.2 percent year-on-year to N13.6 trillion. The most dramatic decline was in ‘other oil product imports,’ which crashed 85 percent, a direct consequence of Dangote’s local supply displacing foreign refined products, analysts believe.

‘For most of that period, Dangote was dominant in terms of supplying petroleum products,’ Yusuf noted. ‘That’s a sharp drop in our import bill.’

The war added further pressure on the import side. Shipping costs, marine insurance, and freight rates spiked following the Hormuz blockade, making imports from the Middle East prohibitively expensive or impossible.

India emerged as Nigeria’s top export destination, absorbing 13 percent of total exports, followed by France with 9.3 percent and the Netherlands 9.2 percent. The five leading destinations, including Spain and the US, accounted for nearly 45 percent of all exports. China remained the largest source of imports at 37.4 percent, followed by the U.S. at 20.6 percent.

But not all sectors benefited. Agricultural exports fell 31.2 percent year-on-year to N1.17 trillion, despite strong global demand for cocoa and sesame seeds. Manufactured exports remained modest at N302.6 billion.

Raw materials exports rose to N1.53 trillion, driven by urea shipments to Brazil and gold exports to Switzerland. Solid minerals exports jumped 74.6 percent to N102.8 billion. Total trade in the first quarter of 2026 was valued at N34.7 trillion, the lowest recorded in seven quarters, according to BusinessDay’s findings.

Oyo’s tragedy and Nigeria’s security crisis: Why we must stop counting victims by faith alone

The abduction of scores of pupils and teachers in Oyo State should trouble every Nigerian conscience. It is another painful proof that insecurity has become our greatest threat to national stability, social cohesion, and future prosperity. Beyond the immediate anguish of affected families, this incident compels us to confront a broader reality: Nigeria’s security crisis is now a truly national challenge that cannot be understood through narrow regional, ethnic, or religious lenses. Like millions of Nigerians, I feel deep sorrow for the children torn from their families, the teachers seized while performing their duty, and the parents enduring the agony of uncertainty. Every child deserves the safety of a classroom. Every parent deserves the assurance that a child sent to school will return home. The violation of that trust is one of the gravest crimes any society can endure.

Yet as we mourn, we must also resist the temptation to draw conclusions that obscure rather than illuminate the crisis. When I say we must stop counting victims by faith alone, I do not mean that all regions have suffered equally. That would be false. Data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project and the Nigeria Security Tracker show that between 2018 and 2025, the North East and North West accounted for over 75 per cent of all banditry-related fatalities. Within those zones, rural farming and herding communities-regardless of their religious affiliation-have endured violence at staggering rates. Acknowledging this disparity is not ranking suffering. It is basic diagnosis. If we refuse to see where the bleeding is worst, we cannot allocate resources or design tailored responses. Equal compassion does not require equal analysis.

The perpetrators in Oyo likely targeted vulnerable children without caring about the faith of their victims. That is true at the tactical level. But it is strategically misleading to treat all violence as identical. The North East’s insurgency is driven by long-standing extremist ideologies from Boko Haram and ISWAP. The North West’s banditry is fuelled by pastoralist-farmer conflicts, small-arms flows from the Sahel, the collapse of rural governance, and the economic lure of kidnapping for ransom. South West kidnappings, while horrific, are largely criminal enterprises seeking profit, not ideological conquest. These differences matter. A counter-terrorism strategy that works for Borno may be useless in Zamfara. A policy that addresses grazing routes and rural livelihoods may reduce conflict in the North Central but does nothing to stop a criminal gang on the Ibadan-Oyo road. We need region-specific solutions, not a one-size-fits-all lament. Recognising this does not fragment our national resolve; it sharpens it.

For years, communities across the North East and North West bore the brunt of atrocities-mass killings, kidnapping, rape, arson, forced displacement. Those events were reported, but they often failed to generate the sustained national attention they deserved. The consequence was not merely inadequate sympathy. It was a dangerous underestimation of the threat itself. Too many Nigerians viewed insecurity in distant communities as somebody else’s problem. Too many assumed that violence confined to one region would remain there. The events in Oyo should finally dispel that illusion.

But sympathy alone has never caught a bandit. Consider this: no matter how remote the forest or how deep the night, a group of dozens-or even hundreds-of abducted children and their armed captors cannot simply vanish into thin air. They must traverse roads, cross villages, pass through farmlands, and navigate checkpoints. Communities along these routes see them. They hear the engines, the footsteps, the voices. So why does no one speak? The answer is painful and stark: fear. In too many parts of Nigeria, those who report suspicious movements become the next targets. Informants are killed. Their families are threatened. Their homes are burned. The silence of communities is not complicity; it is survival. Until we guarantee the safety of citizens who volunteer information, the eyes and ears of the nation will remain shut by terror.

This brings me to a subject too often avoided in polite security discourse: the political economy of banditry and the paradox of technological silence. Former Chief of Army Staff, Lieutenant General Tukur Buratai (retd.), has repeatedly stated that Nigeria possesses the technological means-satellite surveillance, signal intelligence, drone reconnaissance, and advanced tracking systems-to know where both victims and captors are at any given moment. Our military and other security agencies are among the best trained on the continent. If that is true, and I have no reason to doubt a man of his rank and experience, then the failure to locate and rescue abducted citizens is not a failure of hardware. It is a failure of will, coordination, and political courage. We have the maps. We have the tools. We have the men. What we seem to lack is the decisive command to use them.

No honest analysis of Nigeria’s insecurity can ignore that banditry is a business. Powerful local and national figures have historically financed, protected, or negotiated with criminal networks for electoral gain, ransom profits, or strategic convenience. Security budgets have been looted for decades, leaving soldiers without pay, ammunition, or morale. It is not enough to call for ‘better inter-agency coordination’ and ‘judicial efficiency.’ Those are technocratic placebos if we refuse to ask harder questions. Who is arming the bandits? Who is buying their stolen cattle? Who ensures that high-profile kidnappers are never brought to trial? And why, with all our technology, do we still wait for weeks before rescue operations begin? Until we answer these questions, no amount of surveillance equipment will save a single child.

What, then, must be done differently? First, the government must publish, annually, a disaggregated security dashboard showing fatalities, kidnappings, and displacements by local government area, by known perpetrator group, and by proximate cause-whether ideology, resource conflict, or organised crime. Transparency is the enemy of denial. Second, a special anti-corruption tribunal for security procurement and elite complicity should be established, with powers to investigate and prosecute past and present officials. Without this, every new weapon bought will find its way into bandit hands. Third, community policing must be rebuilt from the ground up, with locally recruited officers who live in the areas they serve, backed by independent oversight to prevent abuse. Intelligence sharing only works when informants believe they will be protected-and when they see that technology is actually being used to rescue, not just to monitor. Fourth, the international community must stop simplifying Nigeria’s crisis into a single religious-persecution narrative, which serves foreign domestic politics more than our security. At the same time, Nigerian civil society must stop treating every attack as an opportunity for ethnic or partisan point-scoring. Criminals thrive when we fight each other.

The children abducted in Oyo are not merely Oyo’s children. They are Nigerian children. Their suffering should concern every citizen. But let us not pretend that the agony of a family in Oyo is identical to that of a family in Gwoza that has been displaced four times in six years, or a community in Zamfara that pays protection fees to bandits every month. Recognising difference is not division. It is the beginning of justice. We will overcome this crisis not by refusing to count victims, but by counting them accurately-by region, by cause, by frequency-and then acting on what the numbers tell us. And we will act effectively only when communities lose their fear, when technology is matched by political will, and when the state proves that it values Nigerian lives more than it fears exposing Nigerian elites. The tears of parents in Oyo must not become another passing headline. They must become a national demand for hard answers, not just hard feelings.

Why Azerbaijan’s interest in Ecuador matters far beyond two countries [ANALYSIS]

The geopolitical and economic geography of the modern world is undergoing a fascinating recalibration, one where the strategic movement of sovereign capital blurs traditional boundaries. A striking manifestation of this trend is the nascent economic courtship between Azerbaijan and Ecuador, two nations separated by thousands of miles, distinct cultural landscapes, and vast oceans, yet increasingly bound by shared economic realities and complementary ambitions. When Azerbaijani Deputy Foreign Minister Elnur Mammadov recently signaled that Baku is exploring the deployment of its state investment funds to support energy and industrial infrastructure projects in Quito, it was not merely a routine diplomatic statement. It was a declaration of intent, marking a pivotal moment in Azerbaijan’s foreign policy evolution: the transition from a regional power into an assertive, globally oriented investor utilizing its sovereign wealth as a tool of strategic diplomacy.

At the heart of this transcontinental outreach lies the State Oil Fund of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ), one of the largest and most robust sovereign wealth funds in the Eurasian region. For decades, SOFAZ has functioned primarily as a financial cushion, preserving the nation’s massive oil and gas revenues for future generations while stabilizing the domestic economy. However, the contemporary global landscape demands a more dynamic approach. By casting its gaze toward Latin America, Azerbaijan is signaling its entry into the arena of “investment diplomacy”-a playground traditionally dominated by titans like China, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Deploying sovereign wealth into overseas infrastructure is a sophisticated method of converting exhaustible natural resource wealth into long-term geopolitical influence. For Baku, financing Ecuador’s energy grids and industrial framework is a calculated move to establish a strategic foothold in a region where Azerbaijani presence has historically been minimal.

This emerging partnership presents a captivating economic paradox. Both Azerbaijan and Ecuador are fundamentally resource-dependent nations, anchoring large portions of their state budgets and gross domestic products to the volatile fluctuations of global oil markets. Both have intimately known the joys of commodity booms and the stinging discipline of market crashes. Yet, instead of competing, they are attempting to build a symbiotic bridge over their shared challenges. Azerbaijan, looking ahead to a post-fossil fuel era, has aggressively prioritized the diversification of its non-oil sector. Ecuador, on the other hand, possesses a deeply entrenched, highly sophisticated agro-industrial complex that serves as a global benchmark for products ranging from bananas and coffee to floriculture and sustainable farming techniques.

Thus, the strategic calculus of the Baku-Quito axis becomes clear: Azerbaijan provides the liquid capital and energy infrastructure expertise that Ecuador desperately needs to modernize its economy, and in return, Baku gains invaluable access to Ecuador’s agricultural mastery, opening doors for massive knowledge transfer and food security partnerships. It is a textbook example of South-South cooperation, where the resource strengths of one nation are bartered to cure the structural vulnerabilities of another.

However, an objective analysis of this ambitious cross-continental bridge requires tempering diplomatic enthusiasm with financial realism. Latin America, and Ecuador specifically, is a complex theater for foreign investment. Quito has navigated significant domestic turbulence in recent years, grappling with fiscal deficits, institutional reconfigurations, and shifting security dynamics that can suddenly alter the risk profile for foreign capital. For a fund like SOFAZ, which carries a fiduciary duty to the Azerbaijani public to ensure capital preservation and steady returns, entering a market with such volatile undercurrents carries inherent risks. The success of this strategy will depend entirely on how robustly these investments are structured, the legal safeguards put in place, and whether Baku can successfully insulate its capital from local political cycles.

Ultimately, the bridge from Baku to Quito represents a bold, forward-looking experiment in statecraft. It proves that in the twenty-first century, a nation’s influence is measured not just by the size of its immediate geographic footprint, but by the velocity and reach of its sovereign capital. By leveraging its financial muscle to secure infrastructure assets in Latin America, Azerbaijan is rewriting its own narrative. It is no longer just a Caspian energy hub adjusting to the global energy transition; it is transforming into an active architect of global development, proving that even the most daunting geographical distances can be bridged when driven by a clear, sovereign strategy.

Insecurity: Sending Orunmila and Ogun to the president

I don’t know who divines for the President. I also don’t know who his prophets and marabouts are. But I wish to commend President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to what Orunmila did when Death (Ikú), Sickness (Àrùn) Contention (Ìjà) and Loss (Òfò) waged a war of attrition against Otù-Ifè, where the Father of Divination lived at his Òkè Ìgètì home.

To overcome the problem, Ifá, through Ogbè Òtúrá, asked Orunmila to let go of his favourites such as: Eku méjì olúwéré (two smart rats), Eja méjì abìwègbàdà (Two big fish), Òbídìe méjì abèdò lùkélùké (two ovulating hens), Ewúré méjì abùmu rederédé (two heavily pregnant goats) and Elílá méjì tó f’ìwo s’òsùká (two big cows with big pad-like horns).

In the place of those fanciful items, Orunmila was asked to accept only obì mérin (four kolanuts), orógbó mérin (four bitter kola), and ataare mérin (four alligator pepper) as sacrificial items from his clients. Àgbonìrègún (another name for Orunmila) did as he was told and he overcame his enemies. Leaders must sacrifice personal fantasies for their societies to thrive.

Unless President Tinubu is ready to make allowance for governance instead of politics, kidnappers will enter homes in Ibadan, Abuja and Port Harcourt to take citizens as hostages. Until the political class places a premium on the security and wellbeing of the common man above their political ambitions, our children will not be secure in their schools, our highways will be a haven for bandits and terrorists will occupy our farmlands and ruin our harvest!

The Nigerian singer and songwriter, Simisola Bolatito Kosoko, popularly known as Simi, in what I term here as a dirge for the living, released a short song for the kidnapped Oyo school children. In the dirge, she says: Adìe kìí ta omo rè fún oúnje (the hen does not sell her chicks for food). Unfortunately, this is what the President and the his brothers and sisters in politics are doing to Nigerians: feeding the people’s safety to the gods of their political ambitions!

In the pantheon of Yoruba gods, Ògún, is in charge of war and iron. Originally from a now-extinct town known as Àpá, Ògún was the town’s lead warrior. He was endowed with all natural abilities to defend the town and he fought so many battles on behalf of Àpá and won.

At the beginning of his reign as the generalissimo of Àpá, the wise men who divined for Ògún warned him against nursing an inordinate ambition. They told him that the consequences of disobedience would be too grave for him. If he allowed ambition to take him out of Àpá, he would come back to meet a ruined town. And that is if he would ever come back. Ifá does not lie; Òpèlè does not engage in falsehood (Ifá kìí paró; Òpèlè kìí sè›ké), is the saying of our sages.

Ògún obeyed the diviners for a while. He did all he could to limit his influence to the army he led successfully. But one day, something told him that he could conquer other lands. His orí inú (inner mind) told him to leave Àpá to become lord of other towns and villages. The spirit said he could even rule over the entire world. Ògún chose to believe his orí inú.

Ògún forgot the warning of Ifá. He left Àpá without informing Alápa, the king of the town. A few of his soldiers followed him on the journey to nowhere. Along the line, he conquered towns and villages. He established kingdoms and vassal states. He made rulers and dethroned a few. His expedition was a huge success.

A man’s hubris follows him wherever he goes, is the saying of the elders. Ògún was no exception. His greatest flaw is raw, undiluted anger. When seized by fury, nothing was too precious for him not to destroy.

One day, Ògún returned from another of his numerous unprovoked wars to discover that soldiers left behind in the camp failed to prepare his meal. Enraged, he slaughtered them all. The soldiers who had accompanied him to the battlefield were appalled by the senseless brutality and voiced their indignation. In a fresh outburst of fury, Ògún turned on them as well and killed every one of them.

By the time he came to his senses, he discovered that he had no one to rule over. Then he wandered off and eventually arrived at an àbétè (a local drinking joint) in what is now present day Ìre Èkìtì. The revellers noticed his presence but paid him no attention, carrying on with their jokes, laughter and merriment. Ògún observed what he considered their ‹impudence› but chose to overlook it. He also noticed that the seemingly ‹rude› drinking party had not offered him palm wine. That, too, he let pass.

Just within earshot, someone cracked a joke. His friends laughed out loud. Ògún heard the laughter. He became enraged. Blinded by anger, he returned to the drinking party. He slaughtered all of them. Only one sober drinker escaped because the rest were already intoxicated.

Done, Ògún made for the gourd of palm wine. He lifted it to pour himself the content. To his shock, the gourd was empty! It was then he realised that he had committed multiple murder for an empty gourd of palm wine! His senses came back. He decided never to wander again. He struck his sword to the ground and fell on it. The one who escaped came back with the men of Ìrè to behold the gory scene! The place Ògún died turned to a shrine to date. This is why many believe that Ògún was an indigene of Ìrè and hence, the saying: Ògún Onírè (Ògún the king or owner of Ìrè).

What became of Àpá? Shortly after Ògún left with his soldiers, the towns he had earlier conquered seized the opportunity and rebelled. They waged several wars of attrition against the town and brought Àpá to its knees.

Àpá was in that ruinous position when an old Babalawo, named Ológbòjígòlò, came on an itinerary divination mission to the town. The old wise man was appalled at the state of things in Àpá. He located the king, Alápa, and offered to help.

For a while, Ológbòjígòlò did all he could and Àpá became great once more. But, he too, forgot what Ifá told him when he ventured out. He was warned not to eat over-ripe kola and not to marry two wives no matter how rich he became. When Àpá became prosperous again, Ológbòjígòlò became too comfortable and went against the injunctions of Ifá. In the process, he leaked the secret of Àpá’s victories on the battlefield to his new wife, who actually was a spy for the enemy.

The last battle Ológbòjígòlò fought on behalf of Àpá was the last that was heard about the town. The town was razed to its foundation and all the survivors taken into slavery, never to return! Àpá went into extinction. Its story is only told in Odù Ifá (Ifá Corpus) known as Ìròsùn Mejì, as narrated above. Ifá›s prophecy to Ògún came to pass. When a generalissimo becomes too ambitious, his homestead will come to ruin. When leaders have the mentality of self-first, the people perish under their watch!

The last one week has been tough for the entire South-West. From the videos of ‘suspected bandits’ and ‘arrested bandits and kidnapper’ making the rounds on social media, it is clear that the entire Yorubaland is under siege! No part of the region is spared; nowhere in Káàróò oòjíire land is safe anymore.

I saw the video from Ikorodu. Another one from Lagos Island was uploaded. In Oka Akoko, Ondo State, the narrator said some bandits were mesmerised by a local hunter. Somewhere in Ekiti, a suspected ‹bandit informant’ was apprehended by the people. Osogbo and Ikirun had their own share, just as Ogun State was not spared. From Ile Oluji to Okitipupa in Ondo State, nobody sleeps peacefully again. Fear pervades the land.

What we thought would not afflict us is now our common malady. The North appears relatively ‘peaceful’ now as kidnappers have shifted attention to the South, such that in Ibadan, the capital of Oyo State, a mother and her two children were kidnapped and housed among neighbours. It took almost five days before the police got the ‘intelligence’ that led to the ‘rescue!’

In all this, our Ògún, the one they said is the father of all strategists, is the President and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces. Yes, President Bola Tinubu was not elected to protect only Yorubaland. He is not the President of the South-West, but of the entire nation. I called him the Yoruba Ògún here because his members of the Alajobi gang said that after the popular Agege bread, the next best thing that has ever happened to the entire Yoruba race is Tinubu!

But like Ògún, who abandoned his hometown, Àpá, the current generalissimo in the Aso Rock Villa has abandoned everyone for politics. Ifá warned Ògún about the consequences of over ambition. Òpèlè too cautioned Ológbòjígòlò on the danger of marrying two wives and eating over-ripe kolanut when life becomes too comfortable for him.

The two legends, like the Babalawos of old are wont to say: wón p’awo lékèé, wón p’Èsù lólè; wón wo òrun yànyàn bí eni tí kò níí kú, wón ko’tí ògboìn s›ébo (they call the diviner falsehood, they call esu- the trickster- thief; they look at the heaven contemptuously as if they will never die, they turn deaf ears to the prescribed sacrifice by Ifá). Their ends were not palatable.

Ògún died in a foreign land, his identity is still unknown to date, while his homestead is extinct. Though Ológbòjígòlò, through metaphysics, escaped death, the town he once defended was razed, the king beheaded and the people taken into permanent slavery! This is what over-ambition does; this is what happens when the leader’s personal interest overrides the health of the State.

President Tinubu is entitled to a second term in office. Nobody denies that. Nobody interrogates his constitutional right to seek the mandate of the people for a second term. But that should not be at the expense of governance. The president’s ambition should not override the good of the common people. What we are experiencing in terms of acute insecurity in the nation today is because the President and the political class have abdicated governance for politics!

The idea that Tinubu does not have the capacity to tackle insecurity will not fly. The notion that Nigeria lacks the capacity (men and material) to get out of the woods remains eternally false. What is lacking is the political willpower. The priority of the President is the main issue. If today, the President says the people’s welfare and wellbeing come first, insecurity will be a thing of the past! If he does that, his lieutenants, the governors, will take a cue; they will follow suit.

It has been 25 days since the children and teachers in the Oriire area of Oyo State were taken into captivity. The Ekiti church worshippers are more than a month old in the captivity of those who snatched them from the Sanctuary of the Lord. From Zamfara to Kebbi; from Katsina to Niger, Nigerians, in their thousands, are being held by bandits, terrorists and kidnappers. The focus of the President and the entire political class is the 2027 general elections. This is where the problem lies.

I watched the video of the retired Army spokesman, Major General Rabe Abubakar and his wife, as released by those felons who ‘captured’ them in Katsina, the penultimate week. I could imagine what was going on in the mind of the man who rose to that enviable rank in the military as he was being humiliated! The shame of the helpless condition he found himself in was written all over him. Here is a man, who, at his wedding, was given the sword to defend his wife but he is being humiliated to beg for his life in the presence of the woman he was commissioned to defend!

General Abubakar (Rtd) is not alone. Many victims are suffering the same fate in the various forests where they are held hostage! If a General, whether retired or in service becomes so vulnerable that a rag-tag army can hold him captive, the rest of us, ‘bloody civilians’, have become easily dispensable! Many women who were once victims of kidnapping don’t live to tell their ordeals while in captivity. Many passed on because they could not imagine the molestation they suffered at the hands of the ruffians that kidnapped them! This is the problem the Commander-in-Chief was elected to tackle. How the President and his fellow politicians still sleep and dream politics while the citizenry waste away beats my imagination.

Mindanao quake death toll rises to 37; Tent city eyed

The death toll from the magnitude 7.8 earthquake that struck off Sarangani in Mindanao rose to 37 as of Tuesday morning, June 9, the Office of Civil Defense said.

OCD data as of 6 a.m. recorded 33 deaths in Region 12 and four in Region 11. Most of the fatalities were caused by falling debris, Civil Defense spokesperson Junie Castillo said in an interview on GMA News’ “Unang Balita.”

In Region 12 alone, 456 people were injured while four remained missing, based on initial reports.

“There are four who are still missing, but again, this is initial data because we are looking at reports from families or from people looking for someone,” Castillo said in Filipino.

A total of 77,186 people, or 17,689 families, were affected by the earthquake.

Damage to roads, bridges, homes

Castillo said nine bridges collapsed and 19 roads were damaged in Region 12 alone, with infrastructure damage estimated at around P900 million.

At least 1,889 houses were also damaged, including about 1,500 that were totally destroyed.

Castillo said it was still unclear how long recovery and rehabilitation would take because of the severity of the damage.

“On recovery and rehabilitation in terms of infrastructure, the damage was severe. We can see in images that many buildings collapsed. Even if some did not totally collapse, we can see that they were still heavily damaged and are unusable,” Castillo said.

Response

Search, rescue and retrieval operations are focused mainly on the hardest-hit areas of General Santos City and Sarangani, although Castillo said responders have also been deployed to other quake-affected areas.

General Santos City was placed under a state of calamity on Monday.

Castillo said the OCD had not received reports of isolated barangays or communities so far.

“We have not received reports of isolated barangays, although we have seen damaged bridges and roads,” Castillo said.

Food, non-food items and water supplies placed in accessible areas remain sufficient for now, Castillo said.

The OCD has also sent fuel supplies and generators to hospitals as power transmission lines have yet to be restored.

General Santos Airport was also damaged, forcing flights to be canceled or rerouted. Castillo said government officials visiting affected areas had to travel by land or take a helicopter from Davao City to General Santos City.

The OCD is also planning to set up a tent city for residents who have been sleeping by the roadside because they cannot yet return to their homes due to damage, fear and aftershocks.

“We are looking at putting up one tent city. In this situation, especially with aftershocks, our fellow Filipinos cannot immediately return to their homes, so they are staying in open spacess,” Castillo said.

Women MPs seek faster investigations, stronger safeguards in Anuradhapura child abuse case

The Women Parliamentarians’ Caucus has called for faster investigations and stronger institutional coordination in the high-profile child abuse case involving a girl from Anuradhapura, while urging authorities to take steps to minimise further trauma to the victim as multiple court proceedings continue.

The Caucus, chaired by Women and Child Affairs Minister Saroja Savithri Paulraj, met in Parliament on 5 June with representatives from the Attorney General’s Department, National Child Protection Authority (NCPA), Department of Probation and Child Care Services and Sri Lanka Police to review the progress of investigations and discuss next steps.

During the meeting, the Caucus instructed relevant authorities to ensure that all investigations are conducted strictly in accordance with court orders and requested that forensic and medical reports related to the case be obtained without delay.

Given that legal proceedings linked to the victim are currently being heard in courts in Anuradhapura, Attanagalla and Dambulla, the Caucus requested the NCPA to closely monitor all three proceedings and take measures to reduce the psychological burden placed on the child through repeated involvement in separate cases.

The Attorney General’s Department also agreed to a request from the Caucus to appear before the Anuradhapura Magistrate’s Court to facilitate legal proceedings and strengthen coordination among State institutions involved in the case.

The Department of Probation and Child Care Services was instructed to continue monitoring matters relating to the child’s education, health and safety.

The Caucus further stressed the need for stronger coordination among law enforcement and child protection agencies handling child abuse cases and agreed to pursue future interventions aimed at improving institutional cooperation.

Members also decided to develop guidelines governing media reporting and judicial proceedings relating to child abuse cases to ensure the privacy, security and dignity of affected children are protected. A subcommittee operating under the Caucus will oversee the process and also examine legal and practical challenges arising in child abuse litigation.

Among those attending the meeting were Deputy Chairperson of Committees Hemali Weerasekara, MPs Hasara Liyanage, Lakmali Hemachandra and Sagarika Athauda, while Deputy Minister Dr. Kaushalya Ariyaratne and MPs Thushari Jayasinghe and Anushka Thilakarathne participated online.

Cyprus Department of Meteorology – Forecast for the Sea Area of Cyprus (?)

CYPRUS DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY

FORECAST FOR THE SEA AREA OF CYPRUS (A)

FOR THE PERIOD FROM 0600 09/06/2026 UNTIL 0600 10/06/2026

Area covered is 8 kilometers seawards.

Winds are in BEAUFORT scale. Times are local times.

Atmospheric pressure at the time of issue: 1009hPa (hectopascal)

Weak low pressure is affecting the area. The weather will be mainly fine but overnight and early morning, locally increased low cloud coverage will be present with local mist and/or fog, mainly over the east and the south.

Visibility: Good, but moderate to poor in mist and very poor in fog

Sea surface temperature: 24°C

Warnings: NIL

Who qualifies for new tax waivers?

For years, thousands of Ugandan businesses and individuals have carried tax debts that seemed impossible to escape.

A liability that started at Shs10 million becomes Shs20 million. A debt of Shs50 million becomes Shs100 million. Before long, the taxpayer is no longer dealing with a manageable obligation but a burden that feels impossible to overcome. This reality is familiar to many businesses and individuals across Uganda.

It is also one of the reasons why the government has introduced significant tax relief measures that will start on July 1, 2026.

These amendments are not merely technical changes buried in tax legislation. They have the potential to affect thousands of businesses, landlords, professionals, contractors, individuals, and investors.

Beginning July 1, 2026, one of the most significant tax relief measures in recent years will take effect. The government has introduced provisions that could completely erase certain historical tax liabilities and waive billions of shillings in penalties and interest.

For some taxpayers, this could be the fresh start they have been waiting for. For others, it could be a final opportunity to get their tax affairs in order before enforcement becomes more aggressive. The question is: Do you understand what is changing, and more importantly, do you know whether you qualify?

Waiver of tax liabilities existing before June 30 2016

The first amendment provides for a complete and unconditional waiver of tax liabilities that existed as of June 30, 2016. Not just penalties. Not just interest. The entire tax liability.

This means that where a tax debt existed before June 30, 2016 and falls within the scope of the amendment, the liability can effectively be written off. This is a major departure from previous tax amnesty programmes that often required taxpayers to first pay part of the debt or meet specific compliance conditions. This waiver is unconditional because it does not require taxpayers to negotiate settlements or enter repayment arrangements for those qualifying historical liabilities.

Many of these debts have remained on tax records for years with little prospect of recovery. Some relate to businesses that closed long ago. Others involve disputes that were never fully resolved.

Keeping these amounts on the books creates administrative burdens for both taxpayers and tax authorities. Removing them allows everyone to start from a cleaner slate. For businesses that have been carrying these historical balances, this could significantly improve their financial position and compliance status.

Waiver of interest and penalties existing as of June 30 2025

The second amendment may affect an even larger number of taxpayers.

Under the new provisions, interest and penalties that existed by June 30, 2025 will be waived, provided that the principal tax has been paid.

The government is not forgiving the actual tax that was due. The principal tax remains payable. What is being forgiven are the additional charges that accumulated because of late payment or non-compliance. This means taxpayers who settle their principal tax obligations can benefit from the removal of potentially substantial interest and penalty amounts.

I have seen situations where a taxpayer originally owed Shs50 million in tax, but after years of accumulated interest and penalties, the total has doubled. In such cases, the interest and penalties had become a bigger problem than the original tax itself.

The amendment acknowledges a reality that tax professionals encounter every day: once penalties and interest reach a certain level, many taxpayers simply give up.

Instead of encouraging compliance, the debt becomes overwhelming. By removing these additional charges, the government is effectively saying: ‘Pay what you originally owed, and we shall forgive the rest.’

That is a powerful incentive for taxpayers to regularise their affairs. For many taxpayers, paying the principal tax may suddenly become realistic once the additional charges are removed.

What this means for businesses

For business owners, this amendment creates both an opportunity and a responsibility. The opportunity is obvious.

Companies with outstanding tax assessments should review their records to determine whether they have liabilities that qualify for either of these waivers.

A business that takes action early could save millions of shillings. The responsibility, however, is equally important. This should not be viewed as permission to delay future tax obligations.

Tax amnesties and waivers are exceptional measures; they are not permanent features of the tax system.

Businesses that receive relief should use the opportunity to strengthen their compliance processes going forward. That means improving record keeping, filing returns on time, maintaining proper accounting systems, and seeking professional advice where necessary.

The smartest businesses will not simply celebrate the waiver. They will use it as a chance to build stronger compliance habits.

What this means for taxpayers

Many people assume tax matters only affect large corporations. That is far from the truth.

Professionals, landlords, consultants, contractors, and self-employed individuals may also have outstanding tax obligations. For example, a landlord who accumulated rental income tax arrears years ago may find that part of their tax burden falls within the scope of these relief measures.

Likewise, professionals who previously struggled with compliance could benefit from reduced liabilities if they act promptly and understand the conditions attached to the waiver. This is why taxpayers should not ignore these changes because they do not operate a registered company. The impact may be much closer to home than they realise.

Tax waivers are often controversial. Critics argue that they reward non-compliance while compliant taxpayers receive no special benefit.

However, governments around the world occasionally use tax amnesties and waivers as practical tools to improve revenue collection.

Collecting a realistic amount today is often better than chasing an uncollectible amount forever.

By reducing historical tax burdens, the government hopes to bring more taxpayers back into the formal system.

A taxpayer who becomes compliant today is likely to contribute revenue for years to come. While one who is trapped under an impossible debt burden may never return to the system. These amendments are not simply about forgiveness; they are also about expanding future compliance and broadening the tax base.

The biggest mistake taxpayers could make

The biggest mistake would be assuming that these benefits will automatically apply without any action on your part.

Taxpayers should begin reviewing their tax positions immediately. Understand what liabilities existed before June 30, 2016.

Determine whether you have outstanding penalties and interest accumulated before June 30, 2025. Confirm whether principal taxes remain unpaid. Most importantly, engage qualified tax professionals where necessary.

A proper review could reveal savings that significantly exceed the cost of obtaining professional advice. Waiting until the last minute could mean missed opportunities, confusion, and unnecessary exposure to future enforcement actions.

Rare opportunity to start again

Every so often, a tax amendment comes along that changes the position of thousands of taxpayers. This is one of those moments.

The complete waiver of qualifying tax liabilities existing before June 30, 2016 and the waiver of interest and penalties existing before June 30, 2025 represent a rare opportunity to clear the past and move forward.

For businesses struggling under old tax burdens, this could improve cash flow, strengthen financial statements, and restore confidence.

For businesses, landlords, investors, and self-employed professionals, this is more than a legislative amendment. It is an opportunity to clean the slate, restore compliance, and redirect resources from historical tax burdens into business growth, investment, and job creation.

The taxpayers who benefit most will be those who review their records, understand the law, seek advice where necessary, and take action before the opportunity passes.

Dedan Mutatinensi is a tax advisor.

Soldier killed, villagers abducted in Ogun community

A soldier was yesterday killed, another injured and some villagers allegedly kidnapped after gunmen attacked an Ogun community.

The incident occurred at Karanla in the Magbon Etido area of Mowe, Ogun State.

The attackers, suspected to be kidnappers, were said to have shot the soldier at a private dredging site where he was providing security.

Sources alleged that they had attempted to kidnap an expatriate at the site who narrawly escaped but other workers there were not that fortunate.

According to Mowe/Ibafo community on X, the criminals, allegedly abducted many residents in Karanla community before they were confronted by the soldiers.

Sadly, one of the soldiers was killed during exchange of gunfire while another one sustained injuries, posted the page which shared video evidence of the incident.

It was gathered that reinforcement was immediately deployed to the area to restore normalcy.

Sources alleged that some of the kidnapped victims escaped from the criminals during exchange of gunfire with security forces, while efforts were intensified to track the culprits and rescue remaining hostages.

The incident caused panic in the area with residents alleging that it was suspected bandits that invaded the community.

But the Ogun State Police Command in a statement last night, dispelled the claim, describing the incident as an isolated criminal attack.

A statement by the spokesman for the command, DSP Oluseyi Babaseyi said the injured soldier was receiving treatment, adding that security operatives responded swiftly to the incident, with police and military personnel launching a joint operation to track down and arrest those responsible.

‘The security incident recorded at a private dredging site in Magbon Etido, Mowe, was an isolated criminal attack and not a bandit operation as being speculated in some quarters.

‘Following the report, police operatives, in collaboration with the military, swiftly mobilised to the area and commenced coordinated operations to apprehend those responsible.

‘Preliminary findings do not indicate any connection between the incident and banditry activities in Ogun State. Investigations and tactical operations remain ongoing,’ he said.

The police assured residents that the situation had been brought under control, noting that security presence in the area had been reinforced to prevent further attacks.

The command urged members of the public to remain calm and continue with their lawful activities, assuring that efforts were underway to apprehend the attackers and ensure the safety of residents.