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To celebrate the beauty, power, and majesty of God through art, Fobally Gallery Ltd, in collaboration with Saviorite Limited and the Redeemed Christian Church of God, City of David, Lagos, has commenced a 2-week Christian art exhibition in Lagos.

The exhibition, which came under the theme, ‘Creation Speaks’, is a showcase of powerful artworks that reflect the beauty, glory and truth of God’s creation.

Speaking at the event, Creative Director of Fobally Gallery Ltd, Abiola Folasade, affirmed that the ongoing exhibition actually aimed at letting all artists know that the gifts, the artistic talent they have, were given by God.

According to her: ‘Most of the artists were born with that talent. They just up-skilled it through formal education. So, God is the giver of talent. The exhibition is a call for reflection for artists and for the people, the society at large’.

Highlighting the theme of the exhibition, ‘Creation Speaks’, Folasade said it was designed as a spiritual encounter, not just an art show.

‘As people walk through the exhibition, we pray that the weary will find rest; the discouraged will find hope; the lost will find Jesus and believers will be reminded of God’s faithfulness from Genesis to Revelation,’ she added.

While stating that art bypasses arguments and speaks directly to the heart, she said that the exhibition hoped to engage culture and redeem the arts for God’s kingdom.

‘God is the first Artist; creativity is divine. For too long, the Church has been silent in the art and culture space. This exhibition is our statement that excellence is worship and beauty is ministry.

‘We want to raise a new generation of Christian artists who know that their talent is a calling.

‘We also want to show the wider society that the gospel is beautiful, intelligent, and relevant’, she submitted.

On the collaboration between Fobally Gallery Ltd, Saviorite Limited, and RCCG City of David, Fobally Gallery Ltd boss said it models unity in the body of Christ, emphasising that the exhibition will also create a platform for artists to be celebrated and supported; families and schools to learn about God through creativity; the public to have a wholesome, uplifting experience in the city.

She expressed optimism that the exhibition will not just be seen, but heard adding, ‘the Holy Spirit will use colors, forms, and stories to speak to every visitor. That Lagos, and Nigeria, will see that the Church is a place of beauty, truth, and excellence.

‘The purpose of ‘Creation Speaks’ is to let God’s creation speak again of His glory, His gospel, and His call on our lives’.

Speaking also, the presiding Pastor of the Redeemed Christian Church of God, City of David, Victoria Island Lagos, Kayode Pitan who was represented by Trevor Akindele, described the exhibition as a unique platform to inspire faith and creativity through art.

While the Director Saviorite Limited, Jide Aiyegbusi, who also spoke at the event, had the Christian art exhibition as a direction from the Holy Spirit, noting that the theme of the exhibition was given to them by God.

To Aiyegbusi, who is an elder in the Redeemed Christian Church of God and a British trained Graphic Designer: ‘God has created us in His own image and in His own likeness. And whatsoever we have, God wants us to use it to honor Him, to glorify His name. God wants us to use whatever we have, our profession, our talent, our faith, to honor His name. And that is what we are here to do’.

On her part an artist, Stella Awoh Mofunanya, expressed excitement over what she described as the first Christian Art exhibition in the RCCG and added that it brought Christian artists together.

‘Some years back, some Christian artists were throwing away their works. Some said that it has to do with rituals, but this exhibition has given Christian artists opportunity to showcase their God’s given talents.’

However, she encouraged artists in the society to work harder adding, ‘art is money making machine now. People are buying artworks and they keep it like gold and resell. Art work is appreciated now.’

One of the exhibiting artists, Peacemaker described his art work as an expression of images that show the truth that God created the whole world.

‘This exhibition resonates well with the faith we preach that God made the whole world and Jesus Christ is the Son of the living God. Whom the world must receive’, he said.

Art works displaced at the ongoing exhibition include a curated collection of: Paintings- depicting biblical themes, nature, and God’s glory; Sculptures and Installations-reflecting on creation, redemption, and hope.

Others were; Mixed media – works that blend faith, culture, and contemporary expression and; Live art sessions and artist talks- insight into the creative process as ministry.

The Nigeria Customs Service (NCS), Adamawa/Taraba Area Command, has seized smuggled goods with a total Duty Paid Value (DPV) of N79.86 million in a series of anti-smuggling operations conducted across the two states over five weeks.

The seized items include 16,825 litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, 501 cartons of foreign bar soap, 266 bags of foreign parboiled rice, second-hand clothing and a Mitsubishi Canter truck used to transport some of the contraband.

Comptroller MA Tako, the Customs Area Controller, Adamawa/Taraba Area Command, disclosed this during a press briefing at the command’s headquarters in Yola on Friday, October 23, 2026.

Tako said the seizures followed intelligence-led operations and surveillance along border communities and suspected smuggling routes, particularly around Ribadu, Sahuda, Wuro Alhaji-Maiha, Belel-Goshidan and Maiha-Mubi.

According to him, the operations were part of the service’s efforts to curb smuggling, protect the Nigerian economy and prevent the unlawful movement of prohibited goods across the country’s borders.

Giving details of the interceptions, Tako said officers raided the River Benue bank along the Ribadu axis on August 16, where they discovered 451 cartons of foreign bar soap allegedly stockpiled for smuggling. He said the suspects abandoned the goods and fled into the bush when the officers arrived.

He added that 374 jerrycans of petrol, each with a capacity of 25 litres, were intercepted along a bush path in Sahuda, near the Nigeria-Cameroon border, on August 20.

The command also intercepted a Mitsubishi Canter truck with registration number XB 566 GML along the Wuro Alhaji-Maiha axis on September 14.

The vehicle was carrying 116 bags of foreign parboiled rice, each weighing 50kg, and 50 cartons of foreign soap.

In another operation on September 21, officers discovered 299 jerrycans of petrol, each containing 25 litres, along an unapproved route on the Belel-Goshidan axis. The fuel was allegedly intended to be smuggled out of the country.

Tako further disclosed that officers seized 150 bags of foreign parboiled rice, 20 bags of local maize weighing 100kg each, 11 bales of second-hand clothing and five jumbo sacks of used clothing along a bush path on the Maiha-Mubi axis on October 2.

He said the seizures were made in accordance with the Nigeria Customs Service Act, 2023, and relevant provisions of the Common External Tariff, including the import prohibition list.

The controller commended the Comptroller-General of Customs, Bashir Adewale Adeniyi, and the service’s management for providing the resources and logistical support needed to strengthen anti-smuggling operations.

He also praised the officers involved in the interceptions for their vigilance and commitment, urging members of the public to provide credible information about suspicious activities in their communities.

Tako called on the media to sustain public awareness campaigns on the economic and security consequences of smuggling, stressing that cooperation between security agencies and communities was essential to protecting the country’s borders and promoting economic growth.

The Institute of Strategic Management Nigeria (Chartered) (ISMNC) in Rivers State is set to build itself into a legacy that members will proudly serve today and future generations will proudly inherit.

Patterson Ogon, the newly inaugurated chairman of the Rivers State Chapter, set the agenda for the new executive committee during a strategic meeting in Port Harcourt, the Rivers State capital.

The meeting served as an inaugural meeting, swearing-in ceremony and handover of administrative affairs of the institute.

ISMNC is a non-governmental, non-profit, independent professional, learning and research organisation with an extensive range of courses in Strategic Management, Leadership, Entrepreneurship, Governance, and Digital Innovation that sets the pace for executive training and professional development.

Founded in 2003, and chartered in 2023, the Institute of Strategic Management of Nigeria (Chartered) has been described as Africa’s premier institute for strategy crafting.

It has a mission to advance and promote knowledge and skills in the practice of strategic management, strategic leadership, strategic entrepreneurship, and governance through research, publications, education, training, certification, induction and regulation of students and members.

Its vision is to be a world-class professional body, a pan-African best reference in strategic management, and a key player in positioning Nigeria and Africa for leadership in the global society.

Ogon, who is the Director of Planning, Research and Statistics, Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) was elected as the chairman of the Rivers State Chapter on July 23, 2026 at the Annual General Meeting of the institute in Lagos.

Strategic management is about employing a strategic framework to achieve both short-term and long-term business objectives consistently and efficiently.

While it may look easy on the surface, the actual execution of strategic management can easily result in confusion, particularly when businesses become large and complex.

The Brighton School of Business and Management, says that strategic management is where the resources available to an organisation are brought together.

The resources which include operations, marketing, research and development and other organisational functions are all analysed to best determine how they can be used to reach business goals.

Through strategic management, all company staff are made to have a clear understanding of what their roles will be for the goals of the organisation to be achieved.

And, Ogon is determined to build on the foundations laid by previous administrations and strengthen the institute’s contribution to professional development and strategic leadership within his two-year tenure.

He assured that his administration would position the chapter as a platform for professional excellence, strategic thinking, ethical leadership, intellectual development, collaboration and measurable impact, stressing that membership must provide meaningful opportunities for learning, contribution, networking, mentorship and professional growth.

‘Distinguished colleagues, leadership of a professional body is not simply about occupying an office; it is about accepting responsibility for people, institutions and the future.

‘ISMNC brings together professionals from diverse disciplines, sectors and areas of expertise. This diversity is one of our greatest strengths, and we must create an environment where knowledge is shared, ideas are exchanged, professionals collaborate and expertise is translated into meaningful value,’ he stated.

Declaring that strategy must translate into practical outcomes, Ogon pledged to ensure that every programme and initiative undertaken by the chapter has clear objectives, creates demonstrable value and delivers measurable results through a culture of planning, implementation, evaluation and continuous improvement.

He identified continuous professional development as a major priority, noting that technological advancement, artificial intelligence, changing economic realities and evolving leadership expectations were reshaping the professional environment and requiring members to remain relevant and adaptable.

To address these emerging challenges, Ogon promised to promote seminars, workshops, knowledge-sharing and intellectual engagements while strengthening mentorship and intergenerational learning by combining the experience of established professionals with the fresh perspectives, technological awareness and innovative ideas of younger members.

He said: ‘The professional environment is changing rapidly. Technology, artificial intelligence, economic realities and changing leadership expectations are reshaping the workplace.

‘As a professional Institute, we must remain relevant. We will encourage continuous professional development, knowledge-sharing, seminars, workshops and intellectual engagements that equip our members to respond effectively to emerging challenges.

‘We will also strengthen mentorship and intergenerational learning. Our experienced professionals have valuable knowledge to transfer, while our younger professionals bring fresh perspectives, technology awareness and innovation.

When these strengths come together, the Institute becomes stronger.’

On collaboration and member engagement, he called for stronger relationships among members, state chapters, regional structures and the national leadership, urging members to contribute their ideas, expertise and professional opportunities to advance the Institute’s collective interests.

He also pledged to uphold transparency, accountability and professional ethics by operating within the institute’s established framework, maintaining responsible communication with national structures and ensuring that resources entrusted to the chapter were managed prudently in the interests of its members.

‘We also intend to strengthen collaboration among members, state chapters, regional structures and the National leadership.

We must move beyond simply attending meetings to actively participating in the development of the Institute.

‘If you have an idea, bring it forward. If you have expertise, share it. If you have an opportunity that can benefit the Institute, make it available. The strength of this chapter will ultimately depend on the collective commitment of its members,’ he said.

Ogon emphasised that the institute must remain greater than any individual office holder, and urged members of his executive to serve with humility, integrity and accountability while preserving existing achievements, improving areas requiring attention and creating new opportunities for institutional growth.

He pledged good governance, transparency, accountability and professional ethics as essential parts of his administration.

Ogon declared: ‘As we assume office, we recognise that good governance, transparency, accountability and professional ethics are essential.

‘We will operate within the established framework of the Institute, communicate responsibly with the relevant national structures and ensure that resources entrusted to us are managed in the best interest of the chapter and its members.

Our institution must always be greater than any individual office holder.’

Continuing, he stated: ‘Distinguished colleagues, the world around us is changing rapidly. Technology is transforming industries, artificial intelligence is reshaping professional practice, and leadership expectations are becoming increasingly demanding. In such an environment, strategic thinking is not an option; it is an imperative.

‘today marks the beginning of a new chapter for ISMNC Rivers State. As chairman, I make this commitment: We will lead with purpose. We will serve with integrity. We will promote knowledge. We will develop people. We will encourage collaboration. We will pursue measurable results. And we will place the interests of the Institute above personal interests. I invite every member to join us in this journey.

‘Let us build an ISMNC Rivers State Chapter that reflects the competence of its members, the excellence of its professionals and the strategic value of the Institute.

‘Let us build an institution that we will be proud to serve today and that future generations will be proud to inherit.’

Ogon expressed appreciation to the outgoing leadership for their service and contribution to the development of the chapter and acknowledged their achievements.

He also appreciated the National President and Chairman-in-Council, the Registrar/CEO, the Governing Board, Board of Fellows, National Executive Council, committee chairmen, state chapter chairmen, distinguished members and all our guests for honouring the occasion.

Inaugurating the Rivers State Chapter, Ndudi Alex Enebeli, National President and Chairman-in-Council of ISMNC, welcomed the leadership transition, describing the chapter as particularly significant to him and emphasizing that incoming executives must build on the achievements and foundations established by their predecessors.

Enebeli expressed concern over growing apathy among members of professional bodies in Rivers State and challenged the new executive to develop effective strategies to re-engage members and encourage greater participation in the Institute’s activities.

He urged members to embrace the Institute as a platform for continuous learning and professional development rather than participating only when individual programmes offered an immediate personal benefit, encouraging them to take advantage of its capacity-building opportunities to improve themselves and contribute more effectively to society.

Identifying communication, cooperation and collaboration as three essential elements of successful leadership and teamwork, he commended the outgoing executive for its contributions, urged its members to mentor and support the new leadership, and encouraged the chapter to harness its members’ expertise to strengthen professional development outcomes.

Enebeli also expressed satisfaction with the Rivers State Chapter’s contribution to the Institute’s national leadership, noting that it had produced the national president and had been recognised as the Institute’s best-performing chapter in successive periods.

Nathan Excellence, the immediate past chairman of the chapter, thanked his executive committee for its support during approximately two years in office, declaring that the administration was handing over a more structured institute with improved capacity to deliver while expressing confidence that the new executive would build on the foundation laid by its predecessor.

Details have emerged on how Kula youths died at the bottom of the sea close to the Atlantic Ocean in an encounter with a vessel belonging to the Ibeto group.

Cries rang out in the week that a speed boat carrying 15 Kula youths of Akuku-Toru LGA of Rivers State, a town next to the Ocean, was crushed by a vessel which the youths attempted to stop from sailing out. The vessel known as Anambra FSO was said to be laden with 200,000 barrels of crude oil. The youths had many reasons to block the vessel, but about 10 of them ended up dead.

BusinessDay has been digging into what really happened that fateful Tuesday afternoon in the sea.

Kula community delegation at the Government House in Port Harcourt

Youths and vigilante members guarding the river

The Rivers State government has however stepped into the raucous, vowing to deal ruthlessly with anyone found liable in the deaths.

Gov Sim Fubara said 10 persons were killed and vowed to get to the root of the circumstances.

Gov Fubara gave the assurance on Thursday, October 22, 2026, when the people of Kula Community staged a peaceful march to Government House, Port Harcourt, carrying some of the corpses.

The governor, who was represented by Sunny Ewule, his Chief of Staff, sympathised with the bereaved families and appealed to the people to remain calm and avoid taking the laws into their own hands.

He assured the people of Kula that all those allegedly involved in the act that led to the death of their kinsmen would face the full wrath of the law.

The monstrous vessel

According to the Governor, death is a serious matter, and the Rivers State Government would not rest until it got to the bottom of the matter. ‘We are not going to sit by and allow Rivers indigenes go through this type of unnecessary death.’

Earlier, Anabs Sara-Igbe, a high chief and leader of the Kula Community to the Government House, said they were there to formally complain about the unfortunate incident and seek the government’s intervention.

‘It is proper we inform him (Fubara) because we don’t want to take the laws into our hands. We have the capacity to react but we don’t want to react,’ he said.

Boats and vessel

What Kula community claimed:

The community had raised alarm on Thursday, saying rescue efforts were underway to recover bodies of seven persons drowned at the Robertkiri waterways in Kula following a mishap involving a tugboat and a speedboat carrying over 15 persons.

The incident occurred on Tuesday, 20th October 2026, when a tugboat escorted by military personnel attempted to pull out a 200,000-barrel capacity oil vessel operated by the Ibeto Group after two years of operating in the area.

The victims include Davies Opiri (the Secretary of the Kula CDC) and two members of a local security outfit known as Amama Soldiers whose identity were yet to be known.

Others were named as David Sukubo, Endwell Ameme, Aboy Umeonu and Nye Oriye. They were said to be protesting members of Kula satellite communities and fishing settlements who had vowed to prevent the oil vessel from sailing out of their coastal waters until matters with the company were resolved.

They alleged that the Ibeto Group polluted their waterways, fishing ports and creeks, refused to pay local vendors, and allegedly failed to pay royalties due to the host communities in the course of its operations in the area.

The community said eight persons were rescued alive from the boat mishap. The search and rescue team, which included the DPO of Abonnema Police Division; Sukubu Sara-Igbe Sukubo, the President of the National Youth Council of Nigeria, chiefs and other indigenes of Kula, searched through creeks and water bodies where the incident occurred, they added.

The statement said they, however, were unable to find the bodies of any of the victims 24 hours after the incident.

One of the survivors, Gibert Pokubo, blamed military personnel attached to the tugboat for the incident.

He alleged that the military acted on the instruction of the Ibeto Group to forcefully pull out the oil vessel from the area and crush any obstable on their way.

One of the leaders of the search and rescue team, Jonah Joshua, expressed hope of recovering the bodies of all the victims.

He said the Ibeto Group and personnel of the Sector 3 Command Okrika of the Nigeria Army involved should be held responsible for what he described as avoidable deaths of the innocent persons.

A relative of one of the victims, Stephen Willbraide, said the wife, children and other family members of the deceased are deeply saddened and devastated by the incident.

He demanded a thorough investigation and justice in the matter.

The search and rescue operation continue today to recover the remains of the 7 victims.

Kula community gather beside the waters to receive corpses

Ibeto reacts, denies responsibility:

Ibeto group, in an unsigned and unauthored statement sent to media houses through an aide Thursday morning said Max Shipping Services Limited, a company in its group, noted with deep concern recent media reports concerning an incident at Kula community, Rivers State, involving its vessel, ANAMBRA BASIN FSO. ‘The reports contain allegations linking the vessel’s recovery operation to an oil spill, the deployment of armed personnel allegedly authorised by Chief Dr. Cletus Ibeto, and a boat capsizing in which several persons are feared to have lost their lives.’

From the statement, it was clear that Ibeto owns Max Shipping, while Max Shipping owns Anambra Basin FSO (vessel) which they hired out to Menal Technical Services Ltd to execute the job in Kula. This may have made the Kula community to see and know no other company than Ibeto.

The statement went on: ‘In view of the seriousness of these allegations, we consider it necessary to clarify the facts concerning our company’s involvement.

‘First, Max Shipping Services Limited is the owner of ANAMBRA BASIN FSO, not the operator of the oilfield or the underlying petroleum operations at Kula community. The vessel was hired to Menal Technical Services Limited under a Marine Equipment Hire Agreement dated 20 September 2024, subsequently amended by an Addendum.

‘Our company’s contractual relationship in respect of the vessel was with Menal Technical Services Limited. We were not a party to the separate operational arrangements that Menal or the end user may have had with the host community.

‘Under the ‘Hire Agreement’, Menal Technical Services Limited assumed specified responsibilities relating to operational exigencies, community settlements, security of the vessel and personnel, and demobilisation.

‘Following prolonged outstanding hire payments and repeated efforts to obtain settlement, Max Shipping Services Limited exercised its contractual right to retrieve its equipment.’

Before the demobilisation effort, the statement added, the crude oil stored in the vessel had been discharged. ‘Tank inspection documents issued by Checkirem and GSV Inspection Services Limited in September 2026 recorded that the inspected tanks were free and clean of crude oil at the time of inspection. These records form part of the documentary evidence being preserved for the relevant authorities.

‘We also made repeated efforts to resolve the situation peacefully. Our representatives met with community leaders and representatives on several occasions to explain the nature of our company’s contractual relationship with Menal Technical Services Limited, clarify that we were seeking to retrieve our own equipment, and address any misunderstanding concerning our role at the location. We sought a peaceful resolution rather than confrontation.

‘We are therefore deeply concerned by reports that have attributed responsibility for the incident and the alleged loss of life to our Chairman, Chief Dr. Cletus Madubugwu Ibeto, or have presented the vessel’s recovery operation as an operation undertaken by him in connection with the underlying oilfield activities.’

The vessel, ANAMBRA BASIN FSO, the statement said, is owned by Max Shipping Services Limited, a subsidiary of Ibeto Group, and was hired to Menal Technical Services Limited for deployment at the location.

‘The vessel’s ownership must be distinguished from the separate petroleum operations and community-related arrangements at Kula Community. Under the contractual arrangement, Menal Technical Services Limited, as the Hirer, was responsible for the vessel’s operations at the location, including the relevant operational arrangements and community-related obligations, in conjunction with the end user, as applicable.’

Accordingly, they said, the operational activities and arrangements undertaken by the Hirer and the end user in connection with the petroleum operations at the location should not be conflated with the ownership of the vessel.

‘We are deeply saddened by reports that a community boat capsized and that allegedly lives may have been lost. We recognise the distress and uncertainty experienced by those awaiting confirmation of the whereabouts and condition of their loved ones and as the circumstances surrounding the incident remain unclear, we pray that the relevant security authorities investigate the incident and take all necessary lawful steps to protect human life and prevent further incidents.

‘We appeal to all parties to remain calm, refrain from violence, and allow the competent authorities to determine the facts.’

Max Shipping Services Limited was said to have always maintained cordial and peaceful relationships with its host community and neighbouring communities within its own areas of operation, supported by constructive community engagement and social responsibility initiatives.

They said the Company remained committed to fostering mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and positive relationships with the communities.

Max urged the media and the public to distinguish between the vessel’s ownership, the contractual responsibilities of its hirer, and the separate operations and arrangements at the oilfield. ‘Serious allegations should be based on verified facts, not assumptions.’

How the crushing and drowning took place:

BusinessDay deep inquiries and findings revealed that the NNPC/Belema JV awarded crude oil evacuation job to Max Shipping Ltd belonging to Ibeto Group since past few years.

The Kula community and their satellite settlements were said to have demanded for rights and host status in the evacuation jobs. The demand was said to have dragged on.

Max was said to have, however, given out some supply jobs to some Kula community vendors but the community claims they owed over the years.

Max hired out their vessel, Anambra Basin FSO to Penal Technical Services Ltd (hirer) to execute the job. The NNPC/Belema was said to have been unsatisfied with the services especially pollution issues and thus terminated the Max contract.

The community was said to have insisted that the vessel must leave their area until they were compensated for pollution, payment to community vendors, etc.

BusinessDay gathered that negotiations with the community continued at Ibeto office in GRA Port Harcourt. A source at the meetings told BusinessDay that as far as they were concerned, they were negotiating with Ibeto.

The source said they were surprised that while the negotiations were still ongoing, Ibeto through Max brought in the Army and attempted to pullout and go.

Community youths and vigilante team were said to have mobilized and intercepted the move and stopped them.

The vessel was described as very massive, but not self-propelled. It required two tug-boats to pull it along; one in front, one to push it at the back. Long ropes were tied to the sides of the vessel.

An army unit was procured to escort the vessel of the Kula waters. On the other hand, the Kula youths in their fast boat stayed at the side of the massive vessel, stopping it from going.

A source said at a point, the commander of the Army unit shouted order for the tugboat to pull. As it pulled, it was gathered that the rope stretched and threw the fastboat into the air and slammed it into the water (sea). The 15 youths allegedly slammed into the bottom of the sea, to the bottom of the vessel. Tragedy thus struck.

It was gathered that it was Community members that mobilized for rescue; they went to work and rescued some of the victims.

Eye witnesses said it must be the propeller of the fast boat that slashed at the victims. The bottom of the vessel was far into the water, and the youths were pushed there.

The rescue effort was said to find eight alive while seven were missing until five bodies were allegedly later found, still leaving two yet to be found.

Ibeto and Max insist that it is Penal Technicals Ltd (the hirer) that had any obligations and responsibilities with the Kula Community, but community sources insist that they had nothing to do with Penal but with Max for Ibeto.

On why the community youths chose the waterways to protest, a source said riverine people protest in the waters, not on land because they have no land like the upland people. On why the youths chose action instead of meetings with the company, the source said they had made several efforts and in fact were still in meetings in Port Harcourt when news came that the vessel was being pullout out. The source said the youths were given no option than to stage action.

Efforts to get reactions of the Army unit that was in charge of the escort duty have so far proved abortive.

In the earlier instalments of this series, we left the comfort of capital city seminar rooms to confront the reality of fractured spaces. We established the operational safety protocols and deep immersion methodologies necessary for a researcher to step onto the tarmac and observe a territory where the formal state has receded.

But collecting raw street-level observations is only the first half of the battle. This instalment lays out the full indicator architecture of the Decoupling Sovereignty Index (DSI) – the nineteen-indicator diagnostic engine designed by the Sundiata Post Knowledge Lab to score, weight, and track the velocity of sovereign decay across three vectors: Money, Land, and Mind.

The Three-Vector Operational Matrix

The DSI does not look at states as passive recipients of macro-shocks. It maps the active, asymmetric peeling away of de facto governance across three vectors. Each vector is calculated on a scale of zero to ten based on specific, observable field indicators. A score of zero represents total formal state function. A score of ten represents complete sovereignty decoupling. The nineteen indicators are distributed across three vectors: six for Money, seven for Land, and six for Mind. Each vector contributes equally-one third-to the composite DSI score, regardless of the number of indicators it contains. This weighting ensures that no single dimension of sovereignty decoupling dominates the composite or masks developments across the other two.

Why Nineteen Indicators

The nineteen indicators are a deliberate design, not an accumulation. Shadow Order environments punish single-source measurement: respondents self-censor, official data is compromised, and any one signal can be an artefact of local circumstance. The DSI therefore builds in overlap on purpose. Adjacent indicators, such as L2 and L4 or M6 and L6, observe related phenomena from different angles, so each score can be checked against its neighbour. Where they diverge, the divergence is itself diagnostic. Because each vector carries one third of the composite, the seven Land indicators weigh slightly less individually than those of the Money and Mind vectors. This is intended: territorial decoupling has more dimensions, but it is not allowed to dominate the composite. Where full fieldwork is not feasible, a minimum scoring set of anchor indicators (M1, L2, MD2 and MD5) gives a provisional reading, to be completed to all nineteen for the formal DSI record.

Universal Indicators, Context-Specific Sub-Indicators

The nineteen indicators are universal. They measure the same dimensions of sovereignty decoupling in every zone, which keeps scores comparable across contexts. How each indicator is observed, however, depends on the setting. Each indicator therefore carries context-specific sub-indicators, selected according to the peculiarities of the zone under assessment, including its economic structure, terrain, population characteristics, livelihood systems, settlement patterns, and prevailing security and governance conditions. These factors determine how sovereignty decoupling manifests and how it can be observed in different environments, whether agrarian, pastoral, mining, riverine, or urban. Such adaptations shape how each indicator is measured without altering its underlying meaning, thereby preserving consistency across zones.

The sub-indicators used, and the reasons for choosing them, are recorded with every zone score. Their detailed specification is set out in the DSI Methodology and Indicator Manual.

The Money Vector: Fiscal Sovereignty Indicators

This vector measures the structural insulation of a local economy from the formal state apparatus and central bank – tracking the exact point where state fiscal tools lose their operational teeth. It carries six indicators.

M1 – Parallel Taxation Rate. The frequency, consistency, and monetary toll of shadow levies imposed by non-state actors on commercial activity, market stalls, artisans’ work permits, and the transport of goods. M1 is the anchor indicator of the Money vector – the most directly observable and earliest signal of fiscal sovereignty decoupling. It is scored through direct field count of shadow levy collection points and trader testimony on levy frequency, amount, and enforcement character. Levies on agricultural output at the point of production are scored under M6.

M2 – Formal Tax Compliance Deficit. The gap between the state’s projected revenue expectations and actual tax collection within the micro-environment – measured primarily through field observation rather than state-published data, which in high-decoupling zones is itself a product of the Institutional Mirage.

Observable through the proportion of businesses reporting formal tax payment in the current cycle and the operational status of revenue offices within the zone.

M3 – Shadow Currency Penetration. The degree to which unofficial mediums of exchange displace official legal tender in commercial transactions. Scored through the proportion of observed market transactions conducted in foreign currency, commodity barter, or informal tokens, and through the parallel market exchange rate premium within the zone. Scoring thresholds are anchored to IMF parallel market premium research, World Bank informal economy thresholds, and context-specific Central Bank data – weighted inversely to the zone’s overall DSI score, since the higher the decoupling the less reliable formal monetary authority data becomes.

M4 – Remittance Dependency Ratio. The extent to which household survival depends on external transfers rather than state-linked economic activity. M4 is a change-sensitive indicator – only remittance dependency that has intensified during or following decoupling onset contributes to the score. A pre-decoupling baseline is required for reliable scoring. Without it, M4 must carry a reliability flag in the composite DSI record.

M5 – Formal Banking Exclusion Rate. The deterioration of formal banking access to wealth storage and credit during or following sovereignty decoupling onset – distinct from pre-existing structural underdevelopment of financial infrastructure. M5 measures deterioration rather than absolute absence, ensuring the DSI does not conflate structural underdevelopment with active sovereignty decoupling. A pre-decoupling baseline is required.

M6 – Harvest Tax Rate. The shadow order’s direct extraction from agricultural yield at the point of production – the monetary toll imposed on farmers at the moment their labour crystallises into a tangible, countable, and transportable commodity. Distinct from farming levies which tax land access and belong to the Land vector.

The Land Vector: Territorial Sovereignty Indicators

This vector maps the physical and spatial contraction of the state’s productive geography – tracking roads, fields, courts, and checkpoints not as lines on a map but as the active arteries and organs of shadow order territorial control. It carries seven indicators – one more than the Money vector, reflecting the greater empirical complexity of territorial sovereignty decoupling across its physical, spatial, and institutional dimensions.

L1 – State Security Footprint Index

The true geographic and operational reach of formal state security forces versus the territorial perimeter dominated by a Shadow Order – capturing whether formal forces are garrisoned in isolated urban barracks or can safely and consistently patrol the interior. The critical distinction is between operational and ceremonial security presence. A formal security convoy that moves only between fixed points on a predictable schedule without engaging shadow order activity scores closer to ten than zero regardless of its physical presence within the zone.

L2 – Shadow Checkpoint Density

The frequency, location, and structural permanence of non-state territorial control points and roadblocks relative to formal military or police outposts along critical transit corridors. Scored through direct field count of shadow checkpoints per kilometre of transit corridor and transporter testimony on checkpoint consistency and enforcement character. Transport cost differentials between zones with and without confirmed shadow checkpoints provide a corroborating economic signal – shadow checkpoint taxation embeds itself in transport pricing as a structurally observable market reality.

L3 – Agricultural Displacement Rate

The percentage of fertile productive agrarian land vacated, abandoned, or forcibly occupied due to non-state violence or shadow order territorial control. L3 requires a pre-decoupling baseline to distinguish sovereignty-driven displacement from natural causes.

L4 – Transport Route Capture

The proportion of primary and secondary movement corridors controlled, monitored, or systematically taxed by shadow actors. Analytically distinct from L2 – shadow checkpoint density measures the nodes of control while transport route capture measures the arteries. A zone can have low checkpoint density but high route capture where shadow authority is enforced through mobile rather than fixed control mechanisms. Both indicators are necessary for a complete territorial sovereignty picture.

L5 – Formal Justice Absence Index

The physical retreat, closure, or total operational paralysis of state magistrate courts, police divisions, and formal legal enforcement mechanisms – and the degree to which shadow order dispute resolution has filled the resulting vacuum. L5 is directly corroborated by MD1 – Population Trust Transfer Index – in the Mind vector. Where formal justice is entirely absent and shadow dispute resolution commands community compliance, the Mind vector should independently corroborate through measurably reduced institutional trust in formal state authority.

L6 – Farming Levy

The shadow order’s territorial taxation of the right to occupy and use productive agricultural land – imposing recurring levies on farmers for continued land access, distinct from harvest tax which extracts from yield. L6 is the Land vector’s most direct empirical link to the Money vector. Its placement in the Land vector reflects its primary character as a territorial control mechanism – the shadow order asserting ownership rights over productive land rather than merely extracting commercial revenue from it. Farming levies must be distinguished from legitimate customary land use tribute systems that predate decoupling and carry community consent.

L7 – Population Displacement and Return Patterns

The degree to which civilian movement into, out of, and within the zone reflects confidence in or fear of the prevailing territorial authority. L7 is simultaneously a territorial sovereignty signal and a cognitive sovereignty signal – people vote with their feet for the authority they believe can protect them. A pre-decoupling baseline is required for reliable scoring.

The Mind Vector: Cognitive Sovereignty Indicators

This vector targets the ultimate battlefield – the invisible shift in human consciousness that determines which authority the population recognises, obeys, and protects. The Mind vector is the most methodologically challenging of the three because cognitive sovereignty is the least directly observable dimension of decoupling. Its six indicators are therefore designed around behavioural proxies – what people demonstrably do – rather than attitudinal surveys alone, which are unreliable in Shadow Order environments where respondents self-censor.

MD1 – Population Trust Transfer Index

The measurable expressed shift in trust away from formal judicial and administrative state bodies toward alternative traditional, religious, or armed arbiters. MD1 measures institutional trust – which body the population believes has legitimate authority to govern and adjudicate. Distinct from MD5 which measures immediate protection preference. Scored through civilian testimony on where disputes are taken first and observed attendance at formal versus shadow arbitration sessions. Behavioural proxies override attitudinal responses where the two diverge.

MD2 – Compliance Orientation Score

The behavioural alignment of the population – whether daily rules of engagement are oriented toward formal state law or Shadow Order mandates. MD2 is the Mind vector’s most behaviourally grounded indicator, scored through five specific observable markers: property boundary compliance, movement compliance, commercial compliance, dispute initiation, and civic duty orientation. Its five-marker architecture ensures scoring is based on observable conduct rather than stated attitudes – making it the most resistant to self-censorship bias.

MD3 – Institutional Legitimacy Deficit

The structural gap between the formal state’s rhetorical claims to sovereign authority and the population’s de facto acknowledgement of that authority as binding. Legitimacy is the deepest cognitive dimension – distinct from trust and compliance. Trust asks whether an institution will serve well. Compliance asks whether its rules are followed. Legitimacy asks whether the institution has the right to govern at all. Legitimacy loss is the hardest to reverse – it survives even after security conditions improve and requires active legitimacy reconstruction rather than merely security restoration.

MD4 – Narrative Control Index

Which actor controls the dominant explanatory framework governing how the population interprets local events, security incidents, and governance decisions. Scored through four observable proxies: crisis explanation – whose account the population repeats and acts upon; warning compliance – whose security directives the population follows; information source preference – where the population turns first for zone intelligence; and blame attribution – which actor the population holds responsible for governance failure. Behavioural responses to information override stated media preferences where the two diverge.

MD5 – Protection Source Preference

The truest vote of confidence a population can cast – who they turn to first when physical safety is threatened. MD5 measures the immediate survival decision made under conditions of acute threat rather than general institutional preference. It is the Mind vector’s most immediate and least self-censored indicator – crisis-moment behaviour bypasses the social desirability bias that distorts attitudinal surveys in Shadow Order environments. Scored through community testimony on contact sequence during the most recent security incident and response time comparison between formal state and shadow order intervention.

MD6 – Socialisation and Education Capture

The degree to which the shadow order has extended cognitive sovereignty reach into the formation of the next generation – through control of schooling, religious instruction, youth mobilisation, and community socialisation channels. MD6 is the Mind vector’s leading indicator – it measures future cognitive sovereignty trajectory rather than current alignment. A zone scoring low on MD1 through MD5 but high on MD6 is in a deceptively stable condition. The next generation is being formed entirely within shadow order cognitive parameters while current cognitive sovereignty appears partially intact. A high MD6 score is a critical forward-looking warning signal regardless of the current Mind vector composite score.

The foregoing presents the nineteen universal indicators of the DSI and the general principles governing their application. The detailed scoring rubrics, operational thresholds, context-specific sub-indicators, evidence protocols and aggregation procedures will be set out in the DSI Methodology and Indicator Manual, to be issued by the Sundiata Post Knowledge Lab (SPKL).

However, scoring the nineteen indicators is only the first step. How those scores interact across the three vectors, and what they imply for the order in which sovereignty can be restored, is the subject of the next instalment.

Nigeria’s fragile electricity supply is leaving households and businesses increasingly vulnerable as an intensifying El Niño threatens to expose millions of people to extreme heat, raising the cost of cooling homes, disrupting businesses and increasing health risks in a country where reliable power remains out of reach for many.

Nigeria has some of the world’s largest energy access deficits, with about 92 million people lacking access to electricity, according to data from Austria-based Sustainable Energy for All, an international organisation working in partnership with the United Nations.

This data is compounded by warnings from researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab, who said Nigeria could record 31,400 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027, making it the country with the highest projected toll from the weather phenomenon of El Niño. The estimate is part of a wider forecast of 66,800 additional deaths across Africa’s Sahel region.

For Africa’s most populous country, the development is becoming more urgent as electricity distribution companies struggle to secure sufficient power from the national grid, forcing consumers to endure shorter supply hours and rely on generators, inverters and other costly alternatives to keep essential activities running.

Data from Nigeria’s electricity distribution system showed that 11 distribution companies had a combined allocation of 3,176 megawatts as of 1 p.m. Nigerian time on October 23.

Abuja Disco received the most at 575 MW, followed by Ikeja Disco at 467 MW and Eko Disco at 458 MW. Ibadan Disco was allocated 355 MW and Port Harcourt Disco 291 MW. Benin (240 MW), Enugu (230 MW), Kano (173 MW), Kaduna (167 MW) and Jos (146 MW) got far less. Yola Disco, serving the north-east, received just 74 MW.

The northern allocations matter because that is where the heat is most severe due to distance from the Atlantic Ocean, proximity to the Sahara Desert and low rainfall. The Nigerian Meteorological Agency recorded 41°C in Nguru, in Yobe State, in recent days. Lagos reached 34°C.

Heat of that magnitude, combined with unreliable power, leaves people with few ways to cool their homes or keep food and medicine cold.

‘Not having stable electricity during this heatwave period is very disastrous,’ said Toyosi Akinbobola, head of energy at Sofidam Capital.

Gas shortages compound the problem. The generators’ association says supply to thermal plants is below 43 percent of daily need. Pipeline vandalism destroyed 128 transmission towers in 2024.

‘Nigeria’s stranded power crisis is a transmission failure, not a generation failure,’ Joy Ogaji, chief executive of the generators’ association, said in July.

She described the toll on small businesses: ‘A small tailor earning N4,000 a day can spend N3,000 of it on generator fuel.’

Greg Odogwu, national coordinator at Centre for Renewable Energy, said Nigeria’s power shortages make it vulnerable to global heatwaves.

‘Even households connected to the grid may be unable to depend on electricity throughout the hottest hours of the day,’ Odogwu said. ‘When supply fails, consumers with sufficient resources turn to petrol or diesel generators, solar systems, batteries and inverters. Others have no practical alternative.’

BusinessDay’s findings showed the resulting costs extend beyond household comfort.

Shops may need to run generators for longer, manufacturers face additional operating expenses, and healthcare facilities must maintain power for essential equipment and medicines that require controlled temperatures.

Apart from rising costs, the weather risk is climbing at the same time.

Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), said the current El Niño could peak toward the end of 2026, with effects lasting well beyond that.

El Niño is a natural pattern, marked by warming surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. But climate change is adding to its force, raising baseline temperatures and widening the gap between what people face and what they can cope with.

Researchers behind the Climate Impact Lab analysis said the numbers reflect poverty and power shortages as much as the weather.

Michael Greenstone of the University of Chicago and Tamma Carleton of the University of California, Berkeley, wrote in an analysis published by Gavi’s VaccinesWork that ‘this makes Nigeria the country most likely in the world to have the highest heat mortality under the super El Niño.’

They added that ‘much of Africa lacks the electricity needed for air conditioning,’ and that ‘poorer, hotter countries will lack the money and reliable electricity needed to protect people.’

‘More than 60 percent of Nigerians were estimated to live below the national poverty line in 2025,’ Chicago researchers noted, and even homes with electricity connections face frequent outages.

The most exposed are people who work outdoors, such as farmers, traders, construction workers and commercial drivers. They are joined by residents of communities with little access to cooling, steady power or health care.

Hospitals and clinics that rely on diesel generators face higher fuel costs and the risk of equipment failure just as heat-related admissions rise.

In Lagos, Nigeria’s commercial capital, residents have been enduring sweltering conditions with limited relief.

‘The heat is unbearable, and with no power, we can’t even turn on fans or air conditioners to cool down,’ lamented Adeola Okonkwo, a resident of Mushin Local Government Area in Lagos. ‘It’s like being trapped in an oven.’

For those who can afford it, the answer is self-supply. Generators and solar-battery inverters have become routine in Nigerian homes and shops, but they are expensive to buy and run.

Diesel and petrol costs eat into household budgets, and small firms that need cold storage, such as food sellers and pharmacies, face rising overheads or spoiled stock.

This development means wealthier urban households can buy their way through a heat wave while poorer families in dense neighbourhoods and rural northern states, where temperatures are highest, mostly cannot.