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Rate cut before year-end still possible, BMI projects

THE country’s key policy rate could still be lowered by the Monetary Board in its final rate-setting meeting for this year and through 2026, according to BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company.

In its latest commentary, BMI forecasts a further 25-basis points rate cut in December and 50-basis points more next year.

The Monetary Board, the highest policy-making body of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), reduced the key policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.75 percent, defying market expectations of a pause.

BMI said the BSP’s dovish tone signaled that it was poised to ‘frontload easing’ to support the economy, projecting another 25-basis-point cut in December that would bring the policy rate to 4.50 percent by end-2025.

The central bank said in its press release after it delivered a rate cut that it sees a ‘scope for a more accommodative monetary policy stance’ and the ‘favorable inflation outlook and moderating domestic demand provide room to further support economic activity.’

BMI said the ‘downbeat assessment’ of the economy and BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona Jr., alluding to weakening business sentiment due to ‘governance concerns over public infrastructure spending,’ suggests the BSP is coming round to its view of a further rate cut.

BMI added that there are also signs of a slowdown abound, with the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) recently closing at a near six-month low and slow merchandise export growth.

Moreover, BMI projects inflation to average at 3.5 percent, slightly higher than the BSP’s forecast of 3.1 percent in 2026.

BMI also noted a counterargument that the peso’s recent weakness could prompt the BSP to pause further easing in December, as the currency closed nearly 1 percent lower at P58.44 per US dollar after the BSP’s decision.

BSP’s gross international reserves, at an 11-month high of $108.8 billion, would also provide a sufficient buffer to defend the currency.

Further, BMI pointed out that the US Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate cut in October will widen the interest rate differential between the Philippines and the United States to 75 basis points, before narrowing again in December.

As for 2026, BMI said it maintains expectations of a 50-basis point rate cut, bringing the policy rate down to 4 percent.

‘For one, the US-Philippines trade deal, which leaves 19 percent tariffs on Philippine goods in exchange for none on American ones, will weigh on the trade balance in 2026,’ BMI said.

‘For another, business confidence is likely to remain weak amid graft concerns and unpredictable US trade policy,’ it added.

While further monetary easing could help stimulate demand, BMI said the BSP may ease at a ‘more measured pace’ to allow the effects of earlier cuts to feed through.

Risks to the outlook, BMII added, are tilted toward more rate cuts in 2026 should the corruption scandal spread to other infrastructure projects, dampening business sentiment and widening the output gap.

‘With inflation expectations remaining well anchored, the BSP could prioritize the economy and deliver more policy rate cuts in 2026,’ BMI said.

SURINAME-INCIDENT-Four children among passengers rescued after boat capsizes

Police Monday said nine people, including four children, were rescued after a boat laden with goods capisized on the Corantijn River, the longest river in the country which creates the border between Suriname and the East Berbice-Corentyne region of Guyana.

Police said that due to persistently high water levels, the vessel has not yet been salvaged and that they do not believe that anyone is missing as a result of the incident over the last weekend.

The Police Public Relations said the boat, which was en route to Apoera, a town in western Suriname, capsized due to presumably rough water and high waves. It said that a passing boat, along with the Maritime Police and the National Army, immediately came to the rescue and managed to bring all the people on board safely to shore.

The victims are now being temporarily housed in the State Guest House and that the police and the maritime authorities are continuing their investigation into the cause of the accident.

IBP condemns killing of anti-corruption advocate

THE Integrated Bar of the Philippines (IBP) Misamis Oriental Chapter has condemned the killing of Niruh Kyle Antatico, a Juris Doctor graduate and anti-corruption advocate, in Patag village, Cagayan de Oro on Friday.

The 40-year-old Antatico was gunned down by motorcycle-riding men which was reportedly captured on dashcam footage but authorities have yet to identify his assailants.

In a statement, the IBP chapter characterized the attack as an assault on democratic principles.

Antatico was a former legal officer for the National Irrigation Administration (NIA) in Northern Mindanao who was known for exposing alleged irregularities within the agency.

‘The IBP Misamis Oriental Chapter expresses its grave concern over Mr. Antatico’s untimely death and the possibility that his murder may have been connected to his efforts to expose alleged wrongdoing in some government offices,’ the statement said.

‘Any attack on a person seeking accountability is an attack on the rule of law itself, and we cannot allow fear and impunity to erode the foundations of justice and public service,’ it added.

The lawyers’ group also urged authorities to immediately conduct an impartial investigation of the case and bring the perpetrators before the bar of justice.

‘Authorities must pursue every lead, including the potential connection between Mr. Antatico’s exposés and his killing, and ensure that both the perpetrators and any masterminds are held fully accountable, regardless of position or influence,’ the IBP said.

The IBP chapter also called on individuals who may have knowledge about irregularities in the government to come forward and seek assistance from its office.

‘Pursuant to the IBP’s mandate to promote the rule of law and uphold the public interest, the Chapter stands ready to assist in efforts to address governance-related concerns,’ the group stressed.

CRICKET-IND/WIS-CLOSE India (518-5 dec’d & 63-1) vs West Indies (248 & 390) – 4th day, 2nd Test

India require 58 more runs for victory against West Indies after reaching 63 for one at the close of play on the fourth day of the second Test here at the Arun Jaitley Stadium on Monday.

Scores

INDIA 518-5 dec’d and 63-1 in 18 overs (Sai Sudharsan 30 not out, KL Rahul 25 not out).

WEST INDIES 248 and 390 in 118.5 overs (John Campbell 115, Shai Hope 103, Justin Greaves 50 not out, Roston Chase 40, Jayden Seales 32, Tevin Imlach 12, Tagenarine Chanderpaul 10; Jasprit Bumrah 3-44, Kuldeep Yadav 3-92, Mohammed Siraj 2-43).

TRINIDAD-BUSINESS-CAL confirms immediate resignation of chief executive officer

The state-owned Caribbean Airlines (CAL) Monday confirmed the immediate resignation of its chief executive officer Garvin Medera.

In a statement, the airline said that to ensure continuity and stability, chief operating officer, Nirmala Ramai, has been appointed acting chief executive officer ‘until further notice’ and that under the ‘guidance’ of the board of directors ‘will work closely with the senior leadership team to support the airline through this transition’.

The statement gave no reasons for the ‘immediate resignation’ but thanked Medera ‘for his years of service and leadership and wishes him the very best in his future endeavours’.

The statement quotes Medera as saying that he wanted to ‘take this opportunity to thank all the employees of Caribbean Airlines who have done such a fantastic job over the past few years, facing some very difficult challenges and being their best, time and again, for each other and our passengers.

‘Also, thanks to partners for their support and commitment and customers for their trust and loyalty. I wish everyone well,’ he added.

CAL said that it would ‘continue to operate its full schedule, with no disruption to customers or partners’ and that the board of directors ’emphasises that this leadership transition comes at an important time for the airline and is part of its ongoing focus on stability, safety and accountability’

Son after coming to office following the April 28 general election, Prime Minister Kamla Persad Bissessar issued an ultimatum to the airline’s management, telling them to ‘sort out the mess’ within two years or face replacement.

‘I am giving the management of CAL two years to sort it out; otherwise, everyone there will be looking for a new job,’ Persad-Bissessar said in August, stressing that taxpayers would no longer bankroll under-performing State enterprises.

The statement by CAL on Monday said that as part of the new transition, the board and senior leadership team will be focusing on five key initiatives, namely supporting employees and stakeholders with open communication and care, reviewing operations to increase efficiency and modernisation, enhancing the customer experience with improved services, developing a long-term, financially responsible and sustainable growth plan and conducting full and thorough audits of all departments and processes, to strengthen governance, safety, and accountability.

‘The airline also reaffirmed its commitment to developing and promoting talent from within the organization, before seeking external candidates, to provide employees with clear opportunities for growth and career advancement.

‘Caribbean Airlines will continue to serve the region with pride, reliability and a steadfast commitment to safety. The Board of Directors remains committed to open and timely communication with employees, customers and stakeholders as this leadership transition and strategic plan are implemented,’ the statement added.

No ready help for PHL exporters to America

EVEN as Manila is still in queue to wrap up talks with Washington, the government has neither earmarked funds nor rolled out initiatives to assist exporters who will be affected by the higher tariffs slapped on goods bound for the United States, its long-time top export destination.

At a Senate hearing on Monday, Trade Undersecretary Allan B. Gepty said: ‘Of course, on our part, we want to fast-track the negotiations [with the US] but when we had our last round of negotiations about three weeks ago, they told us [that] they’re also facing a lot of negotiations with other countries.’

He added, ‘Right now, based on our discussion with our counterpart, it will be very difficult to conclude the same within the year, given the number of negotiations being handled by USTR.’

He said the DTI projects conclusion of the negotiation will end ‘by next year.’

Meanwhile, Trade officials including Trade and Industry Secretary Cristina A. Roque were pressed by Senator Imee Marcos on what are the agency’s planned ‘immediate solutions’ for affected exporters.

For his part, Gepty explained that the country’s strategy to navigate through the tariff headwinds is to ‘Of course, to continue the negotiation with the US.’

Another strategy, he noted, is to request the exemption of key Philippine products, adding, ‘That’s why we’re negotiating on that.’

The chief trade negotiator also said the Philippines is currently expanding its market access to other countries.

This was echoed by Roque: ‘We’re going to, we are actually looking for other markets already, for, actually, all the products of the Philippines, especially those that will be affected.’

However, Marcos pointed out that the Philippines is among the countries with ‘very, very few [Free Trade Agreements] FTAs.’

‘That market access takes time to develop, it’s not gonna happen overnight. In the meantime, exporters are reeling. You can see that many are already losing their jobs. What’s to be done about that?’ the lawmaker said, partly in Filipino. She noted that there are no subsidies in place to assist affected exporters.

To which, Roque quickly replied: ‘We are strengthening also the local market this is also what’s attractive to foreign investments thaht are coming in, aside from strengthening the foreign trade service corps in the DTI offices all over the world.’

Senator Marcos emphasized that market development is a ‘medium to long-term process,’ further pressing the trade officials: ‘What is the immediate solution because the problem is really urgent as thousands are losing their jobs?’

Roque, however, pointed out that Philippine exporters already know what to do despite the headwinds.

‘Sanay na po sila mag-export so we just have to find other markets like Europe,’ Roque said.

She also noted that for long-time exporters, ‘It’s actually easy for you to penetrate other markets.’

The senator described the budget of the country’s Trade department as ‘business as usual.’

‘Konting konti lang ang pinagkaiba nung last year at ngayon. Ano ang gagawin natin? Ang problema ngayon nasaan yung plano kapag nangyari ito [There’s hardly any difference between last year and this year. The problem is, where’s the plan when the worst happens]?’ Marcos said.

No subsidies in budget

As for the subsidies that DTI will provide for exporters, particularly electronics exporters, Gepty said: ‘If you’re referring to funds that will be extended by the government, I’m not aware of that, if there’s any line item.’

In an interview with the BusinessMirror in August, Roque said: ‘No, we don’t have that budget for the industries. But what we have is we’ll be able to do major B2B, major trade missions for them to sell in other countries all over the world. Because we have to bear in mind that the US is not the only market. The world is the market.’

As to the measures that the government will roll out to protect industries that may be affected by the tariffs, Roque told this newspaper: ‘Nothing, because nothing is final yet. Everything is still under negotiation. Everything is like a new update. It’s also hard to rely on these things until we find something that’s really final.’

Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) data indicated that in August 2025, or during the month when the 19-percent reciprocal tariff imposed by Washington took effect for the Philippines, exports to the United States contracted 11.2 percent to $1.09 billion from the $1.22 billion recorded in August 2024.

Meanwhile, the Philippines’ shipments bound for Hong Kong soared by 26.4 percent to $1.19 billion in August 2025 from the $942.56 million in August 2024.

For August 2025 alone, this means that Hong Kong is now the Philippines’ top export destination.

TRINIDAD-LABOUR-Government to submit revised wage offer to public servants

The Trinidad and Tobago government Monday said that it will submit a revised offer of 10 per cent in salaries and wages to public servants saying the measure is in keeping with a promise made during the campaign for the April 28 general election.

Finance Minister Davendranath Tancoo delivering the first national budget of the United National Congress (UNC) -led coalition government, said that for far too long, public officers, the backbone of the country’s workforce, have been made to carry the weight of the former Government’s neglect and indifference.

‘This government is taking this bold and historic step to restore justice, dignity and respect to the hard-working men and women of the public service. After nine long years of stagnation, we are committed to finally bringing all parties back to the bargaining table to address this long-overdue injustice.’

Ancoo said that on the completion of the bargaining process with the Public Service Association (PSA), the government will work with Republic, First Citizens Bank and the National Insurance Board to find a comprehensive solution to discharge this national obligation.

‘This government is focused on delivery and not delay, workers’ rights and not neglect, appreciation and not excuses.

‘In furtherance of the conclusion of negotiations for the Civil Service, Statutory Authorities and Tobago House of Assembly for the periods 2014-2016 and 2017-2019, the Honourable Prime Minister has instructed me to advise the Chief Personnel Officer to submit a revised offer of 10 per cent.’

Tancoo said that he is also advising the members of the Teaching Service, the Trinidad and Tobago Defence Force, and the Port of Spain and San Fernando City Corporations that the government will ratify the collective agreements signed in April 2025 between the Chief Personnel Officer and their respective Associations/Union/Committee.

Tancoo said that the recurrent cost of implementing these agreements is estimated at TT$214 million (One TT dollar=US$0.16 cents) annually, with arrears of TT$730 million as of December 2025.

Tancoo also dislosed additional policy decisions that the government will undertake to improve the lives of all public servants, teachers and Central Government daily-rated workers.

He said upon assuming office, he was shocked to learn that theretirees in these groups are removed from the UNIMED Group Health Plan precisely when medical issues are more likely to arise.

‘Accordingly, I have instructed that an appropriate Request for Proposal be prepared and issued to seek proposals from the market for an option that allows our retirees and their families to retain membership in the public sector health plan.’

He said also a job evaluation exercise for the civil service are estimated to be completed within the next six to eight month and that this major exercise marks a significant milestone in the modernisation of the public service.

‘However, apart from the revised job descriptions with updated duties and responsibilities, it will provide another significant opportunity for nationals of this country. Upon completion of this exercise, approximately 40 per cent of all fixed-term standardised contract positions will be made permanent and pensionable.

‘In comparison, another 20 to 23 per cent of non-standard fixed-term contracts will also be ‘classified into the new grade structure,’ Tancoo said, adding that ‘this exercise will result in the reduction of fixed-term contract employment by as much as 63 per cent and bring these contract officers within the ambit of the public service’.

’This is the beginning of a new era’

The Trinidad and Tobago government Monday presented a budget of TT$59.2 billion (One TT dollar=US$0.16 cents) to Parliament acknowledging a fiscal deficit of TT$3.8 billion and announcing a series of tax measures to finance the fiscal package.

The debate on the budget will begin on Friday.

Finance Minister Davendranath Tancoo, delivering his first ever budget to Parliament, said that the fiscal package is ‘more than just an accounting of revenues and expenditures, plans and policies,’ adding it represents a shift towards fairness’.

In his three hours and 15 minute presentation, Tancoo said that for too long, the government’s fiscal policy has been seen as a technical exercise and today ‘we redefine it as a human one’.

According to Tancoo, the Kamla Persad Bissessar administration on assuming offence in April found an economy in trouble and that the preliminary outturn for fiscal 2025 is for a deficit of TT$8.7 billion with revenue of TT$50.6 billion and expenditure of TT$59.3 billion.

Flu-like illnesses drop, but precautions ‘sound’ amid seasonal rise, says DOH

Following the suspension of classes in the National Capital Region (NCR) from October 13-14, an official of the Department of Health (DOH) on Monday said that influenza-like illnesses (ILIs) in the country is eight percent lower as compared to the cases recorded the same period in 2024.

Health Assistant Secretary and Spokesperson Albert Domingo brushed aside worries when asked for reaction by the media after the increasing cases of ILI was mentioned as one of the one of the reasons, prompting DepEd to implement preventive class suspensions.

‘At the national level, the number of influenza-like illnesses is lower than last year thus far,’ Domingo said, citing that a total of 121,716 ILI cases were recorded across the country from January 1 to September 27, lower as compared to the 132,538 cases registered during the same period in 2024.

He reiterated that the move of DepEd is a sound precaution for local and institutional health authorities to practice preventive measures to keep the numbers down.

When asked if there is nothing to be alarmed of after the DepEd -NCR implemented class preventive suspension, Domingo responded,’Opo, ito po ay normal lamang na pag-iingat at base na rin sa kanilang anunsyo, sinabay nila sa earthquake preparedness para sa Big One.’

Ensuring safe learning spaces

The Department of Education (DepEd) on Monday reminded that Regional Office and Schools Division Office (SDOs) can implement preventive class suspensions to ensure the safety of the learners, teachers, and other agency personal after natural disasters such as earthquakes or typhoons.

‘Ipinaaabot ng Department of Education [DepEd] sa publiko na ang mga preventive class suspensions o pansamantalang pagtigil ng klase ay bahagi ng mga hakbang upang matiyak ang kaligtasan ng mga mag-aaral, guro, at kawani habang isinasagawa ang mga gawain para sa kahandaan sa sakuna,’ said Dennis E. Legaspi, DepEd Chief Media Relations Officer.

Legaspi said that preventive class suspensions is also a measure to stop the spread of infectious diseases and ensure safe learning spaces.

‘Sa panahon ng preventive suspension, ipinatutupad ang mga alternatibong paraan ng pag-aaral upang tuloy pa rin ang edukasyon habang prayoridad ang kaligtasan ng lahat,’ he added.

The DepEd also appealing for cooperation of the parents, teachers, and local government units to ensure the safety of students during various natural hazards.

BAHAMAS-ECONOMY-Government says economy improving after tough choices

Bahamas Prime Minister Philip Davis says the country has achieved a 0.5 per cent fiscal deficit for the budget year ending June 30, 2025, saying that this result is within the government’s target range of 0.3 to 0.7 per cent and represents a major improvement from the 13.7 per cent deficit recorded in 2021.

‘Four years ago, our country was facing one of the worst fiscal crises in its history. Today, we are back on stable ground. We made tough choices to protect our economy, and those choices are now paying off,’ Davis said.

Prime Minister Phillip Davis

Davis said that last year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that the Bahamas budget deficit of 1.3 per cent was remarkable, adding ‘and no doubt that 0.5 per cent is even more remarkable.

‘The reduction in the deficit is in keeping with our overall fiscal plan to reduce new borrowing and thus decrease the amount of national resources paying interest on debt.

‘Our debt management strategy going forward includes identifying opportunities to decrease our debt-servicing obligations by prudent fiscal management and using creative instruments to pay off high-cost debt and manage the maturity profile of our outstanding debt’.

Davis said that this achievement is about more than balancing the books, adding it is about delivering results that make life better for Bahamian families.

‘Every dollar we save on debt is a dollar that can go toward schools, hospitals, family islands, and helping Bahamian families meet the cost of living. It means more resources for the things that matter – better roads, stronger communities, safer neighbourhoods, and more jobs.’

Davis said that the government remains focused on responsible management of the country’s sayin ‘we are managing the country’s finances responsibly so that Bahamians can feel the difference, in lower costs, better services, and a stronger, more resilient economy.

‘Responsible governance is about managing all our resources wisely. The same discipline that drives our fiscal policy also drives our commitment to protecting our environment and preparing for the future.’

He said that this success is a reflection of national progress and shared effort.

‘This is what responsible leadership looks like – steady progress that improves lives and strengthens our country. We are building a better future, one decision at a time, and we are doing it together.’