The no-confidence debate targeting 18 Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) ministers is expected to test not only the government’s performance but also the political future of several key figures, with Digital Economy and Society Minister Chaichanok Chidchob emerging as a central target.
Public attention will focus on the opposition’s allegations and whether it can produce credible, clear evidence to support them.
Several issues could put the government under pressure, including alleged Senate collusion, a controversy involving the husband of a BJT MP, irregularities in local administrative recruitment exams and the Thai-AI Passport scheme.
Beyond the debate itself, the relationship between the government and the Klatham Party is another issue to watch, with questions about where it will position itself and whether it could join the government after the censure debate.
DES minister a chief target
Stithorn Thananithichot, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University, said the DES Ministry would be a major focus because of the controversy involving BJT MP Suchada Zhang Thaensap and her husband, Zhang Taiyang.
Unlike the allegations of Senate election collusion, the issue is relatively new, and it is not finalised. It could directly affect Mr Chaichanok, making him a key target of the debate, Mr Stithorn said.
He said the political stakes are high because Mr Chaichanok, the party secretary-general and the son of BJT influential figure Newin Chidchob, is being groomed as a party leader.
If he suffers serious political damage during the debate, his rise to other important posts, such as interior minister or prime ministerial candidate, could be slowed, said the analyst.
The debate will test both the DES minister’s ability to defend himself and the BJT’s political succession plan, Mr Stithorn said.
Economic management, the cost of living and corruption are also expected to feature, but the opposition will need fresh information to make an impact, he said.
If the opposition produces new information and the government fails to respond convincingly, its popularity could fall.
“However, a decline in support would not necessarily threaten the government’s survival unless large-scale protests put it under pressure to make a major political decision,” he said.
Price for support
Mr Stithorn said that the Klatham Party is another important factor, as it has made its interest in joining the government increasingly clear.
The censure debate would allow the party to demonstrate its value by supporting the ministers under attack. But the question is what Klatham would receive in return, he said.
The party could seek cabinet positions, potentially asking for two ministerial seats, including the Agriculture and Cooperatives Ministry. Such demands would have to be negotiated with Pheu Thai, which could be reluctant to surrender its own cabinet quota.
Klatham might wait for some time after the debate before joining the government, easing criticism that its entry is a reward for supporting the government during the censure vote, he said.
The earliest likely window for a cabinet reshuffle would be early next year, although it could be delayed until the middle of the year because of major commitments in December, Mr Stithorn said.
Although the opposition has not included Pheu Thai ministers in the censure motion, the coalition partner would still need to show support for the prime minister and the government as a whole.
Pheu Thai has kept a relatively low profile, but former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who is seeking an amnesty, remains a factor. The party still needs support from coalition partners on the amnesty issue, he suggested.
Mr Stithorn said he believes all 18 ministers, all from the BJT, will survive the no-confidence vote, but their individual vote counts would differ.
Ministers who receive unusually low scores, combined with weak explanations during the debate, could later face pressure from the party to leave their posts in a cabinet reshuffle, he said.
Senate issue remains central
Suvicha Pouaree, director of the Nida Poll Centre, said the Senate collusion allegations would be the biggest issue in the no-confidence debate, with some ministers facing questions about the Senate case rather than their performance in the ministries they supervise.
The controversy involving Ms Suchada, alleged irregularities in local administrative recruitment examinations and economic management would add to the pressure on the government and its response would determine how much damage the opposition could inflict, he said.
Mr Suvicha said the TH-AI Passport project might not attract much public interest in itself during the grilling.
“The target is not so much the scheme as the DES minister. If he wasn’t from the Chidchob family, he could be spared. The opposition apparently wants to attack his father through him,” he said.
Natural Resources and Environment Minister Suchart Chomklin is also a target, not necessarily because of his performance in the ministry but because of unresolved political issues, he said.
If the opposition produces clear and substantial evidence that leaves little room for doubt, some ministers could face consequences, Mr Suvicha said.
Cabinet reshuffle could follow
The political impact of the debate would not necessarily be limited to ministers who sustain the most damage, he said.
A cabinet reshuffle is likely after the parliamentary session ends in November, when Klatham could move closer to joining the government, he said.
During the debate, Klatham would simply watch how BJT and Pheu Thai respond, unless the allegations directly affect the party. If BJT needs additional support, Klatham could vote with the government to signal its willingness to cooperate.
Such support would amount to a “down payment” on a future role in the coalition, Mr Suvicha said.
Bringing Klatham into the government would, however, complicate the allocation of cabinet seats between BJT and Pheu Thai.
The redistribution of ministries could resemble the formation of a new government and create political turbulence over the following six to eight months, potentially leading to a second reshuffle.
Mr Suvicha said the government’s popularity would depend on two competing factors. The welfare card scheme, which is undergoing a review of eligibility and the restoration of benefits to some people, appears to be helping the government regain support among lower-income voters.
At the same time, allegations raised during the censure debate, including Senate collusion, irregularities in local recruitment examinations and other legal cases, could put pressure on its popularity.
“If the opposition fails to deliver a knockout blow, the government would retain the advantage,” he said.
Pheu Thai, which is not directly targeted by the censure motion, would probably observe the proceedings while continuing to support its coalition partners.
Klatham keeps its options open
Despite speculation about a possible deal, a source from Klatham said the party has not decided how it would vote.
The meeting between Klatham heavyweight Capt Thamanat Prompow and Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul is nothing out of the ordinary for politicians who know each other well, the source said, adding it should not necessarily be interpreted as evidence of a political agreement.
The source said the opposition did not consult the party when preparing the censure motion. Having been excluded from that process, the party would continue to operate according to parliamentary rules and its own position.
Klatham would assess the information presented during the debate before making a decision, the source said. Whether to vote in support of the ministers, abstain or vote against them would be determined at the last minute.
“Also, the government has been in office for only about five to six months, which is too short a period to judge the performance of individual ministers,” the source said. The source dismissed reports of a merger involving parties, saying the charter does not allow such a merger during a parliamentary term.
Pheu Thai weighs the risks
A source from Pheu Thai said the likelihood of Klatham joining the coalition is high, and the question is no longer whether it would happen, but when.
The government needs to strengthen its numbers and stability, the source said, but any cabinet reshuffle would have to avoid undermining existing coalition partners.
“A reshuffle aims to strengthen the administration. So they should avoid friction, whether through changes to ministerial portfolios or cabinet quotas,” the source said.
The source also noted that joining the government does not necessarily make Klatham stronger in the long run and its performance in office would be the deciding factor.
If the party made mistakes or failed to deliver clear results, its position could end up being weaker than before, said the source. The timing of a reshuffle would depend partly on the political temperature after the censure debate.
“If the government emerges without major problems, it might wait before making changes. If ministers sustain serious damage, the debate could accelerate the reshuffle,” said the source.