The Philippine peso’s slide toward P64 against the US dollar comes at a difficult time for an economy already struggling with slowing growth, rising inflation, and uncertainties arising from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Inflation accelerated to 7.2 percent in September, while economic growth slowed to just 2.3 percent in the second quarter of 2026. The International Monetary Fund has projected full-year growth of 3.4 percent, reflecting the increasingly difficult environment confronting Philippine businesses and households. The peso’s depreciation adds another layer of pressure.
As a net importer of petroleum, the Philippines is particularly exposed to international oil-price movements. A weaker peso raises the domestic cost of dollar-priced imports, while geopolitical disruptions involving Iran and the wider Middle East can intensify the pressure on fuel, electricity, transportation, and food prices.
These developments have implications extending well beyond the foreign-exchange market. They can also affect the banking system, particularly institutions whose profitability depends heavily on consumer lending. Consider UnionBank of the Philippines, which has built one of the industry’s most profitable lending franchises, supported by its substantial exposure to consumer loans, which generally command higher interest rates than traditional corporate lending.
Its financial performance illustrates the attraction of this strategy. During the first nine months of 2026, UnionBank earned P9.9 billion, a 53-percent increase from the comparable period last year. Net interest income rose 9 percent to P51.9 billion, while its net interest margin improved to 6.9 percent, among the highest in the Philippine banking industry.
But the equation changes when inflation accelerates, economic growth weakens compounded by a decline in the peso value that equates more spending on food, transportation, electricity, and other necessities that impacts the disposable income available for debt repayments.
In a BusinessMirror report last April, Moody’s said that Union Bank is more exposed to risks arising from ‘shrinking’ financial buffers of retail borrowers amid higher inflation. It said that UBP had the largest share of retail loans among its rated Philippine banks at around 60 percent of its total loans, while unsecured retail loans accounted for around 40 percent of its total loans.
‘We view the latter as a relative weakness because this asset class has underperformed compared to corporate loans,’ said Moody’s Ratings. That report was made in April when the peso was at P60 to the dollar. Now, the peso is near the P64 mark and at the time this paper reported the Moody’s assessment, it said that ‘on a consolidated basis, (UBP) is more exposed to risks arising from the shrinking financial buffers of retail borrowers amid higher inflation.’
A consumer-heavy loan portfolio can become more sensitive to prolonged inflation, weaker employment conditions, and reductions in household purchasing power. Higher interest rates may also increase debt-servicing costs for borrowers with variable-rate obligations or those refinancing existing debts. The consequences need not appear immediately.
In a sense, UBP’s exceptional profitability may not remain unchanged. The bank’s 6.9-percent net interest margin reflects the earnings power of its lending model. Whether that advantage can be sustained will depend partly on the capacity of its borrowers to withstand a more difficult economic environment.
And that brings us to a larger lesson about financial risk. Moody’s ratings said while the bank’s problem loans formation improved in 2025 following the bank’s tighter credit underwriting, slower growth and limits on new-to-credit lending, UBP’s problem loans ratio (stage 3 loans as a percentage of gross loans) remained ‘elevated’ at 7.2 percent.
In The Black Swan, Nassim Nicholas Taleb examined how rare, consequential events can overturn expectations and expose the limitations of conventional risk assessments. The present geopolitical tensions are not entirely unforeseeable. Neither are inflation, currency depreciation, or slower economic growth.
What may prove difficult to anticipate is how these pressures interact, how long they persist, and how deeply their combined effects penetrate household finances. A bank may continue reporting strong earnings even as the economic assumptions supporting its business model begin to change.
A family that once comfortably serviced its loans may discover that rising living costs have altered the arithmetic of its monthly budget.
And an economy that appears capable of absorbing one external shock may find itself confronting several at once. The financial statements may still show healthy margins, improving profits, and adequate capital.
But somewhere beyond those figures, the household budgets on which consumer lending ultimately depends are being rewritten. The question is how much of that rewriting will eventually find its way into the banks’ own ledgers.