Azerbaijan enters the final months of 2026 with an external trade position that supports confidence in the manat. In January-September, the country exported goods worth $23.865 billion and imported $13.346 billion, producing a positive trade balance of $10.519 billion. Total foreign trade turnover reached $37.211 billion, up 5.2% year on year. Exports grew 28.3%, while imports declined 20.4%. These figures form a persuasive economic case for expecting the manat to remain around its current rate of 1.70 per US dollar through year-end, provided current policy conditions continue.
At $10.5 billion, the nine-month balance was 5.7 times the level recorded a year earlier, according to customs data reported in October. The result reflects stronger export receipts and lower import spending, creating a cushion in the country’s external accounts. When exporters receive foreign currency and domestic demand for imports absorbs a smaller share of it, the supply-demand balance in the foreign-exchange market becomes more favourable to the national currency.
The Central Bank of Azerbaijan has also been accumulating reserves. Its official foreign exchange reserves rose from approximately $11.515 billion at the end of 2025 to $15.363 billion on September 30, 2026. That represents an increase of about $3.849 billion, or 33.4%, in nine months. The Central Bank reported that it purchased $1.5 billion in foreign currency during August alone, amid a current-account surplus and continued de-dollarization in the financial sector. Governor Taleh Kazimov has said that purchases could continue, with around $1 billion in additional buying possible by the end of the year, depending on market conditions and inflation risks.
These developments matter because the manat operates under a de facto fixed exchange-rate arrangement, with the official rate maintained at 1.7000 per dollar. In such a framework, strong foreign currency inflows can help the Central Bank meet market demand and build a reserve buffer. Currency purchases also allow the regulator to absorb part of the dollar supply entering the market, while converting those purchases into manat liquidity that requires careful monetary management.
A wider national reserve picture adds another layer of reassurance. By September 30, Azerbaijan’s strategic foreign exchange reserves, including the Central Bank’s holdings and the State Oil Fund’s assets, had reached approximately $89.38 billion, up 9.7% year on year. The Central Bank accounted for about $15.36 billion, while the State Oil Fund held roughly $74.17 billion. This combined pool gives the country substantial capacity to withstand external shocks and support macroeconomic stability.
Still, the trade surplus should be read with an understanding of its limits. A positive goods balance is a major strength, yet the exchange rate also reflects services, investment income, capital flows, domestic credit conditions, inflation and policy choices. Energy remains central to the export story: oil and gas accounted for 72.1% of exports during the first nine months. That concentration makes export earnings sensitive to global energy prices, production volumes and demand from major buyers. A sharp fall in oil prices could narrow the trade surplus and reduce foreign currency inflows.
The monetary side also deserves attention. When the Central Bank buys dollars, it pays in manats. If the resulting liquidity moves quickly into consumer spending or lending, it can add to inflationary pressure. The regulator has said it evaluates this risk when making currency purchases. Its ability to manage liquidity, maintain confidence and preserve adequate reserves will therefore remain as important as the trade balance itself.
For the final quarter, the available indicators point toward continuity. The $10.5 billion trade surplus, rising Central Bank reserves, strategic reserves of $89.38 billion and the established exchange-rate framework all support the expectation that the manat will remain near 1.70 per dollar through December. This is a reasoned outlook rather than a guarantee: external shocks or a policy change could alter the picture.
Azerbaijan’s strongest argument for currency stability is the combination of export earnings, reserve accumulation and a clear monetary framework. The next test is to preserve that balance while expanding non-oil exports and strengthening the economy’s capacity to earn foreign currency from a wider range of sectors. Stability becomes more durable when it rests on diverse sources of income as well as substantial reserves.