A new analysis warning that a Super El Niño could threaten 500 million farmers worldwide and wipe $342 billion from global agricultural output may sound like a future crisis.
For many Kenyan farmers, it is already today’s reality. The warning underscores a lesson the agricultural sector can no longer ignore: climate resilience is no longer an environmental add-on. It has become the foundation of agricultural productivity.
About 98 percent of Kenya’s agriculture is rain-fed, meaning a failed rainy season can determine an entire harvest.
Drought has already devastated livestock herds in Turkana and Marsabit, while climate stress in Tana River has reduced pasture, milk production and household food security. Families recovering from one climate shock are often hit by another before they regain their footing.
The old distinction between productivity and resilience no longer holds. Productivity depends on resilience, and so does access to finance. Farmers who cannot withstand climate shocks become riskier borrowers, making it harder to secure the credit needed to invest in their farms.
The effects quickly spread beyond the farm. Poor harvests reduce household incomes, affect children’s education and nutrition, and leave farmers without resources to buy inputs for the next season. Floods often destroy both crops and the roads needed to transport them to market, compounding losses.
Smallholder farmers produce up to 80 percent of the food consumed in sub-Saharan Africa. When their resilience weakens, the consequences ripple through food supplies, inflation and national economies.
Livestock-dependent communities face even greater risks. While crops may recover with better rains, rebuilding herds can take years. Protecting livestock through better animal health, water access and drought preparedness is therefore central to safeguarding livelihoods.
Kenya has already begun investing in locally led climate action, supporting community projects that strengthen agriculture, water and environmental management. The next step is to treat water harvesting, drought-tolerant crops, livestock health services, climate information, solar-powered cold chains and agricultural insurance as productive infrastructure rather than optional development projects.