Before 2024 and subsequent Gen Z-led protests sparked by the controversial Finance Bill, public attention rarely focused on revenue mobilisation.
National conversations revolved around budget estimates that culminated in the annual budget reading, while Finance Bill debates were largely viewed as elitist, and the people followed from the sidelines, except, of course, for Senator Okiya Omtatah.
Over the years, however, the courts and public steadily transformed the Finance Bill into one of the country’s most scrutinised legislative processes.
In 2022, the Kenya Human Rights Commission and others unsuccessfully challenged the Finance Act 2022, arguing that provisions such as VAT on exported services and excise duty on SIM cards had been introduced without proper public participation. The Finance Act 2023 faced even greater legal turbulence.
The High Court declared the proposed housing levy unconstitutional before the Court of Appeal later nullified the entire Act. Although the Supreme Court eventually overturned that decision, citizens had fully grasped the significance of the Finance Bill and its direct impact on their lives.
Then came Finance Bill 2024. The proposed law triggered nationwide protests and unprecedented public opposition, forcing the government to abandon it altogether.
Since then, the State has appeared less forceful and more accommodating of citizen views. Public participation has become more deliberate and extensive. Conversations around finance bills are no longer confined to experts and policymakers; Mwananchi is now fully alert.
It is within this politically sensitive environment that the Finance Bill 2026 arrives. The first notable aspect is its deliberate avoidance of dramatic tax shocks. Treasury appears to have learned from recent public resistance to aggressive taxation.
My observation is that the Bill is more measured, with fewer headline-grabbing levies and greater emphasis on administrative adjustments than outright new taxes.
The Bill also introduces several measures aimed at improving tax administration and compliance. These include penalty waivers, streamlined filing systems and clearer procedures for taxpayers.
For investors and businesses, predictability is often just as important as low taxation. Kenya’s reputation for frequent tax policy shifts has long unsettled the private sector, and any effort to create greater consistency may help restore some confidence.
For ordinary Kenyans, the central economic question is not whether Treasury can raise revenue, but whether life will become more affordable. Here, the Finance Bill does not offer much comfort.
Particular attention has already turned to the proposed tax on mitumba. This is especially because the tax is levied on ‘deemed’ profit payable at the point of importation before the goods are released. If enacted, the proposal is likely to raise the cost of importing second-hand clothing and similar products, ultimately increasing retail prices while reducing traders’ margins.
The Bill also struggles to address the country’s employment crisis convincingly. While the Economic Survey reports job growth, most of those opportunities are concentrated in low-paying informal work rather than stable formal employment.
The Bill offers limited incentives for labor-intensive industries, manufacturing expansion, or youth enterprise development.
Perhaps the ugliest reality exposed by both the Economic Survey and the Finance Bill is the growing normalisation of economic informality. More than 18 million Kenyans now work outside the formal economy.
The Finance Bill does little to fundamentally change that trajectory. Instead of aggressively incentivising industrialisation, value addition, and export-led growth, the country appears increasingly resigned to managing an economy built around survivalist enterprise.
That presents a dangerous long-term risk. An economy dominated by informal work often produces weak pensions, low productivity, insecure incomes and narrow tax bases. In many ways, the Finance Bill 2026 reflects a government attempting to stabilise rather than transform the economyc reset many Kenyans hoped for.
The good is that Treasury appears to have listened to public frustration and avoided imposing severe new tax shocks.
The bad news is that the Bill offers limited relief to households battling a relentless cost-of-living crisis.
And the ugly truth is that it quietly reveals an economy increasingly dependent on informal survival, while the government remains heavily focused on revenue extraction.
Ultimately, the Finance Bill 2026 may help the state balance its books. Whether it helps ordinary Kenyans build wealth, secure decent jobs and restore purchasing power is a far more difficult question.