Kenya’s supply chain vulnerable as four countries dominate import bill

China, India, Saudi Arabia and UAE supplied 55.1 percent of Kenya’s imports in the first half of 2026, highlighting the vulnerability of the country’s supply chain amid disruptions on key trade routes due to the Middle East crisis.

Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) data indicates that Kenya’s import bill grew by 21.9 percent to Sh1.63 trillion in the six months to June 2026, with the four countries absorbing Sh898.8 billion, representing 55.1 percent of Kenya’s import expenditure.

According to KNBS data, non-food industrial supplies, fuel and lubricants, which are sourced from the Middle East and other Asian nations, accounted for 59 percent of the country’s import bill.

India, which largely exports pharmaceuticals and mineral fuels to Kenya, cemented its second place with goods worth Sh215.16 billion from Sh139.68 billion in 2025.

Imports from Saudi Arabia surged 484.4 percent to Sh149.8 billion, lifting the kingdom from sixth position in 2025 to third this year.

At the same time, imports from the UAE fell 35.1 percent to Sh115.9 billion, pushing the Gulf state from Kenya’s second-largest supplier to fourth.

The reversal followed the outbreak of the Middle East conflict and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.

But the latest developments in the Middle East expose the risks of relying on the Middle East for essential imports.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of global crude oil and LNG supplies normally pass, has seen shipping traffic collapse as the war has intensified.

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