There is an 81 percent chance that the El Niño expected to peak between October and December and possibly persist into early 2027 could become one of the most powerful events since 1950. This is according to a projection by the US Climate Prediction Center (CPC).
That forecast should serve as a wake-up call for the government and all institutions responsible for disaster preparedness and response. The question is no longer whether Kenya should prepare, but whether it is ready.
If preparedness is the country’s first line of defense, the budget does little to reflect that priority. The 2026/27 National Budget contains no dedicated allocation for El Niño preparedness, meaning any response will depend on existing disaster management and contingency financing.
This is despite a recent report from The International Rescue Committee (IRC) placing Kenya, Uganda, Somalia and some regions of Asia among the most at risk.
This challenge is compounded by shrinking donor funding. As reported by the Daily Nation on July 30th, Kenya Red Cross Secretary General, Ahmed Idris says funding from the United States has fallen to about 40 percent. At a time when Kenya is already experiencing a prolonged dry spell, reduced humanitarian financing could weaken the country’s ability to respond to the impacts of El Niño.
The question that keeps coming up though is, why is it that as a country we are always caught flat footed and left to take a reactive approach rather than a proactive one. Where do we miss the mark and what gaps should be addressed?
The World Resources Institute (WRI) warns that decades of poor urban planning, ageing drainage systems and environmental degradation have left Nairobi vulnerable to flood disasters.
While Kenya’s Cabinet Committee on El Niño Preparedness and Response is mandated to implement a national contingency plan, evacuation and shelter, the emphasis remains largely on managing consequences of extreme weather rather than addressing the structural vulnerabilities that make disasters so devastating in the first place.
These are not problems that can be solved through emergency response alone. They require sustained investment in resilient infrastructure, stronger enforcement of land-use regulations, protection of wetlands, and closer coordination between National and County Governments. Without addressing these structural weaknesses Kenya remains exposed to the same vulnerabilities.
We really do not have to look far for lessons. Rwanda has demonstrated how long-term investment in climate resilience can significantly reduce flood risk. Like Nairobi today, Kigali once experienced frequent flooding whenever heavy rains pounded.
Rapid urbanisation had encroached on Kigali’s wetlands, reducing their natural ability to absorb floodwater. With over 500 hectares of urban wetlands rehabilitated, Kigali now stands as the largest wide urban wetland rehabilitation in Africa and in the world.
The rehabilitated wetlands do not just bolster the city’s defense against floods but also offers spaces for tourism, education and recreation, while improving water quality and biodiversity.
According to the World Bank, Rwanda’s Wetland Ecosystem Parks will draw over 1.5 million annual visits by 2036, create 7,500 jobs, nearly half of them for women and result in $45-90 million in avoided flood damages, linking recreation, research, and nature-based tourism to community benefits.
Kenya’s context is different, but the principle is the same. Taking a more proactive approach before disasters strike is significantly less costly than rebuilding after floods. Climate adaptation should therefore be viewed not as environmental expenditure but as an economic investment that protects infrastructure, livelihoods, and public finances while also offering the opportunity to create new streams of employment.
Kenya’s National Treasury has already quantified the cost of inaction. Data from the newly launched Disaster Risk Financing Strategy 2026-2030 shows that the 2023 and 2024 floods resulted in an estimated Sh187.82 billion in damages and losses, underscoring how climate shocks have become a fiscal and economic challenge, and not just a humanitarian one.
With more than 30 percent of Kenya’s GDP and over 40 percent of employment tied to climate-sensitive sectors, investing in preparedness is no longer optional. As the Treasury itself recommends, disaster risk must be integrated into public budgeting and financing.