Global 6G connections are projected to reach 2.4 billion by 2035, marking a rapid expansion of the next-generation mobile technology after commercial launches begin around the end of the decade, according to GSMA Intelligence.
The research arm of the GSMA expects 6G connections to rise from about 50 million at the end of 2030 to 275 million in 2031 and nearly 740 million in 2032, as operators and technology companies build out the ecosystem around the new standard.
The forecast indicates that 6G will cross the one-billion connection mark in 2033, reaching about 1.3 billion connections by the end of that year. Connections are then expected to rise to 1.9 billion in 2034 before reaching 2.4 billion in 2035.
GSMA Intelligence expects 6G to account for about 0.5 percent of global mobile connections by the end of 2030, reflecting an initial period of limited commercial deployment before adoption accelerates.
The growth is expected to occur in two distinct phases. Between 2030 and 2032, 6G deployment will be driven mainly by initial commercial launches and ecosystem development. From 2033, GSMA Intelligence expects the technology to move into global-scale operations as device availability, network coverage and supporting infrastructure expand.
Despite the rapid growth, 6G is not expected to immediately displace existing mobile technologies.
GSMA Intelligence forecasts that 5G will still account for around 60 percent of global mobile connections in 2035, compared with 23 percent for 6G. This points to a prolonged period in which operators will manage multiple generations of mobile technology rather than move customers wholesale from 5G to 6G.
Matthew Iji, head of data modelling and forecasting at GSMA Intelligence, said the 2035 projection should be viewed as a milestone in the development of 6G rather than its final destination.
By 2035, he said, 6G will have become firmly established in the global mobile technology mix while 5G remains the larger technology base and 4G continues to serve many markets.
‘This coexistence is likely to be one of the defining characteristics of the early 6G era,’ Iji said.
China is expected to have a particularly significant influence on global 6G adoption because of the size of its mobile market.
GSMA Intelligence forecasts that China will account for more than half of global 6G connections by 2035. It also expects several other leading mobile markets to have around half of their connections running on 6G by the middle of the decade.
The forecast suggests that the transition to 6G will therefore be less about replacing 5G outright and more about adding another layer to an increasingly multi-generation mobile ecosystem.
For operators, the prolonged coexistence of 4G, 5G and 6G is likely to require continued investment across network infrastructure, spectrum, devices and supporting technologies as adoption develops at different speeds across markets.
The projected 2.4 billion connections would represent a substantial expansion from the estimated 50 million connections expected during the first year of commercial 6G deployment, underscoring the anticipated acceleration once the technology moves beyond its initial launch phase.