The victory of Ademola Adeleke in Saturday’s Osun State governorship election has sent a fresh political signal to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) ahead of the 2027 general elections, particularly as the party had openly described the poll as a test of its electoral strength.
Adeleke, who contested on the platform of the Accord after leaving the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), was declared winner by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in the early hours of Sunday.
The governor polled 511,067 votes across the state to defeat Bola Oyebamiji, candidate of the APC, who scored 444,815 votes.
Professor Joshua Ogunwole, INEC’s State Returning Officer, declared Adeleke winner after he secured victory in 19 of the state’s 30 local government areas, while Oyebamiji won 11. Najeem Salaam of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) came third with 17,180 votes.
Analysts say the result is significant not only because Adeleke successfully defended his mandate, but also because he did so outside the PDP, the platform on which he won the 2022 election.
His victory came after a prolonged crisis within the PDP culminated in the party conducting its governorship primary without him, forcing the incumbent to seek the Accord ticket.
The outcome has consequently raised fresh questions about the strength of party structures, the influence of incumbency and the ability of opposition politicians to retain electoral support outside the platforms on which they initially won office.
For the APC, however, the result could prove more consequential.
Nentawe Yilwatda, APC National Chairman, had described the Osun election as a litmus test for the party ahead of 2027, while insisting that the APC would reclaim the state.
Hope Uzodimma, Imo State governor and Chairman of the APC National Campaign Council for the election, also expressed confidence that the party would win. Ajibola Bashiru, APC National Secretary and an indigene of Osun State, similarly maintained that the party would reclaim the state ahead of the 2027 elections.
The party therefore entered the race with expectations that victory would strengthen its position ahead of the next general elections. However, Adeleke’s victory has provided opposition politicians and analysts with fresh ammunition to argue that the APC remains vulnerable despite its control of the federal government.
The 2027 debate
Beyond the immediate political implications in Osun, the election has already become part of the wider 2027 debate.
Jackson Lekan Ojo, a political analyst, told BusinessDay that the outcome was a warning to the APC, particularly if opposition parties succeed in putting aside their differences and presenting a united front in 2027.
‘Are the signs not clear to you? This is a clear picture and a signal that the ruling APC will be shown the exit route in 2027. They will be sent packing,’ Ojo said.
He attributed the outcome largely to economic hardship and the rising cost of living under the APC led federal government, arguing that growing public frustration could translate into electoral consequences for the ruling party.
‘Nigerians are angry because a hungry man is an angry man. Look at the high cost of living, inflation and economic hardship. Some households can’t afford three square meals a day in this country,’ he said.
Ojo said the APC’s own description of Osun as a litmus test had made the defeat more significant. According to him, the lesson for the opposition ahead of 2027 is that electoral victory could become possible if opposition parties overcome their differences and consolidate their support.
‘What sort of government is this that doesn’t listen to its citizens? Let me tell you, if the opposition unites, the APC government will be ousted in 2027,’ he said.
Peter Obi, presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) for the 2027 election, has congratulated Adeleke, saying the result demonstrated the power of citizens to determine who leads them, stressing that it’s a lesson ahead of the 2027 poll.
Obi said the people of Osun had ‘spoken with courage and clarity’, while commending youths in the state for what he described as the peaceful defence of their democratic mandate.
‘The lesson from Osun is clear. Democracy is strongest when citizens are alert, conscious of their civic responsibility, and determined to ensure that their votes count,’ he said.
He urged Nigerians to draw lessons from the election as political parties and their candidates prepare for the 2027 general elections. Obi urged Nigerians to participate actively in the 2027 elections and called on political actors to prioritise the interests of the people and embrace peace and the rule of law.
‘Elections should never be battles of violence, but contests of ideas, competence, character, and service,’ he said.
Intrigues before the poll
The campaign for the Osun governorship election was also marked by an unusual political twist, with Governor Adeleke dismissing the significance of APC governors who campaigned for his opponent, Bola Oyebamiji.
Adeleke had said some of the governors campaigning against him were his friends, insisting their presence would not determine the outcome of the election because they were not registered voters in Osun.
‘Those governors are my friends. I am a civilised administrator. They won’t vote; they can only come and dance, and after the election, we will meet,’ Adeleke had said during the campaign.
His comment highlighted the complex political relationships surrounding the election, as several APC governors, including Hope Uzodimma of Imo State and Monday Okpebholo of Edo State, joined the party’s campaign for Oyebamiji.
The campaign also exposed the limits of personality-based attacks in an election. Governor Okpebholo, had mocked Adeleke’s dancing during the campaign, portraying the incumbent as a governor whose penchant for dancing had overshadowed governance.
‘Before somebody signs paper, he will dance. Are you not tired? For four years, this man has been dancing. Before he takes breakfast, before he drinks tea, he will dance,’ Okpebholo told APC supporters at a campaign rally.
He also likened Adeleke to Godwin Obaseki, former Edo governor, urging Osun voters to reject the incumbent just as, according to him, Edo voters rejected Obaseki.
‘That man is Obaseki’s friend. You know we kicked Obaseki out of Edo. So, we have to kick his friend out of this place too,’ he said.
Adeleke, however, dismissed the criticism, insisting that dancing was merely his hobby and had no bearing on his performance in office. He also expressed confidence that he would secure a second term.
Despite the high-profile backing for the APC candidate, Adeleke went on to defeat Oyebamiji, adding another layer to the political intrigues surrounding the outcome and its implications for the 2027 elections.
More reactions trail APC’s Osun defeat
Atiku Abubakar, former Vice President and presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) for the 2027 poll said Adeleke’s victory reflected the clear choice of Osun residents at the poll.
‘I congratulate Governor Ademola Adeleke on his re-election as Governor of Osun State. His victory demonstrates the choice of the people of Osun as expressed at the ballot box,’ Atiku said in a post on his X handle on Sunday.
‘I commend the people for their passion and peaceful participation. I wish Governor Adeleke continued success as he continues to serve them,’ he added.
Similarly, Bukola Saraki, former Senate President, congratulated Adeleke, describing the result as a clear endorsement by Osun voters.
Saraki, in a post on his official X page on Sunday, said, ‘The people of Osun have spoken, and they have spoken clearly. They have had four years to judge the record of his stewardship, to weigh the promises against the performance, and they have asked him to continue.’
Saraki, former Kwara State governor, said the election also reinforced the importance of credible polls to Nigeria’s democracy.
Rabiu Kwankwaso, former Kano State governor and NDC vice presidential candidate for the 2027 election, also congratulated Adeleke, whom he described as his friend.
In a statement posted on his verified X account on Sunday, Kwankwaso commended Osun voters for exercising their democratic rights and reaffirming the power of the electorate.
‘As a leader of the opposition and a committed democrat, I commend the people of Osun State for exercising their democratic rights and reaffirming the power of the people’s mandate,’ he said.
Meanwhile, Adeleke has disclosed that President Bola Tinubu had called to congratulate him.
‘I want to seize this opportunity to thank Mr. President. Mr. President has called me and he has congratulated me. And I thank you, Mr. President, for making sure democracy lives on, because you fought for it, Mr. President,’ he said.
Pundits say the coming weeks will show whether the APC treats the defeat as an isolated setback or as an early warning requiring a major political and electoral recalibration ahead of the 2027 presidential contest.