Global electricity systems will need to undergo a major transformation over the next decade, with renewable energy accounting for about 78 percent of global power generation by 2035 to support a broader shift towards electrification, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).
Electricity currently accounts for 23 percent of global final energy consumption. Under IRENA’s revised 1.5°C Scenario, that share is projected to rise to 35 percent by 2035 and above 50 percent by 2050.
Greater electrification across buildings, transport, and industry will drive the increase as countries seek to reduce fossil fuel use while meeting rising energy demand.
‘With the rising energy demand, electrification with renewables will be central for end-use sectors such as buildings, transport, and industry. Today, electricity accounts for 23% of global final energy use… It will rise to 35 percent by 2035 and above 50% by 2050,’ IRENA stated.
Renewables accounted for 31.7 percent of global electricity generation in 2024, producing 9,836 terawatt-hours (TWh). IRENA said this share would need to rise to around 78 percent by 2035, about 2.5 times its current level, for renewables to meet most of the additional electricity demand.
IRENA estimated that electrification, combined with energy efficiency, could deliver about one-third of cumulative CO2 emission reductions between 2026 and 2050.
The pace of electrification will vary across sectors. Buildings are expected to reach 55 percent electrification by 2035, driven by heat pumps, electric cooking and cooling. Industry is projected to reach about 35 percent, while transport is expected to rise from about 1 percent to 15 percent.
However, grid infrastructure remains a major constraint. About 2,500 GW of projects worldwide are awaiting grid connections, highlighting the need for greater investment in transmission, distribution, storage and system flexibility.
Annual investment in grids and flexibility will need to more than double from $500 billion in 2025 to about $1 trillion through 2035, before rising to $1.2 trilliion thereafter.
The incoming COP31 Presidency of Trkiye has announced a global target of 35 percent electrification of final energy demand by 2035, drawing on IRENA’s roadmap.
‘Countries start from different points based on their energy demand, electricity access, infrastructure and investment capacity, and will need to determine nationally appropriate pathways to meet the electrification target. Realising this shift depends on a wide range of forward-looking and co-ordinated policies,’ the Agency stated.