Nigeria’s $3bn carbon market bet reaches critical new stage

Nigeria has moved to its next implementation stage for its carbon market framework by establishing specific criteria to determine which carbon projects the government will approve. The National Council on Climate Change (NCCC) held a National Stakeholder Review and Validation Workshop on the draft Host Country Approval Criteria for Nigeria’s Carbon Market Operations in Abuja. NCCC Director-General Omotenioye Majekodunmi told the workshop that Nigeria had secured approval for the carbon market framework. The task now facing stakeholders is establishing approval criteria that protect national interests while giving credible investors and project developers certainty, she added.

University of Nigeria, Nsukka Vice-Chancellor Simon Uchenna Ortuanya, represented by university Professor Nnaemeka Chukwuone, said the approval criteria would provide guidance on the eligibility, screening, and assessment of carbon market projects, describing their development as guided by sound research. The workshop marks a further step in a process that began nearly a year earlier, following President Bola Tinubu’s approval of the National Carbon Market Framework in late October 2025 ahead of COP30 in Belém, Brazil. Tinubu signed off on the framework’s full implementation in January 2026, with oversight resting with the NCCC, chaired by the President and supported by a dedicated carbon market office.

Financial projections and international compliance

The government has projected the framework could unlock between $2.5 billion and $3 billion annually in carbon finance over the next decade, positioning carbon trading as a significant driver of non-oil revenue. The framework spans forestry, energy, and agriculture, aligning Nigeria’s carbon market activities with Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which governs international cooperation on emissions trading and carbon credits between countries.

The host country approval criteria under review are a practical mechanism to determine which offset or reduction projects the government will formally authorise to sell credits internationally. Getting this stage right is designed to prevent problems that have undermined voluntary carbon markets elsewhere, such as projects of questionable integrity, double-counting of credits, and weak enforcement that erodes investor confidence. Whether Nigeria’s final approval criteria succeed in attracting projected investment while avoiding international credibility pitfalls will determine how much of that projected $2.5 billion to $3 billion actually materialises.

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