active subscriber milestone for the first time in two years, marking a significant recovery from the mass disconnections triggered by the Federal Government’s National Identification Number (NIN)-SIM registration enforcement, which removed approximately 70 million lines from the market.
Latest industry data from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) show that active telecom subscriptions increased by 2.9 million to 200.3 million in September 2026, from 197.4 million in August, pushing the industry back above the 200 million threshold for the first time since the regulatory exercise disrupted subscriber numbers in 2024.
The recovery represents a reversal of the steep contraction that followed the government’s directive requiring mobile subscribers to link their SIM cards with their NINs to strengthen identity verification and support security agencies in tracking criminal activities.
Before the enforcement, Nigeria had 224.7 million active telephone lines in December 2023. However, the figure fell to 154.9 million by September 2024, representing a loss of nearly 70 million connections as operators barred lines that failed to meet the identification requirements.
The latest figures suggest that operators have gradually rebuilt their subscriber bases through new SIM activations, expanding network coverage and renewed demand for mobile connectivity, although the recovery also reflects the difference between the number of registered connections and the number of people actually using telecommunications services.
The NIN-SIM synchronisation initiative, introduced by the Federal Government in December 2020, was designed to establish a reliable link between subscribers’ identities and their telephone numbers. The process required the National Identity Management Commission (NIMC) to validate NIN records against SIM registration information.
In December 2023, the NCC directed MTN, Airtel, Globacom and 9mobile, now T2mobile, to bar SIM cards not linked to their owners’ NINs by February 28, 2024. Subsequent directives extended the verification requirements to satellite mobile communications operators and subscribers whose submitted NINs remained unverified.
The enforcement generated widespread complaints as millions of subscribers lost access to their telephone lines. Following the disruption, the NCC ordered operators to temporarily reactivate affected lines on July 29, 2024, ahead of the final enforcement deadline.
The return to 200 million lines therefore represents more than a numerical recovery. It shows the industry’s ability to rebuild its customer base after one of the most significant regulatory disruptions to Nigeria’s telecommunications market.
However, the distribution of the new connections reveals that the recovery is not being shared equally among operators.
MTN Nigeria strengthened its market leadership in September, adding approximately 2.1 million subscribers to reach 104.65 million active lines. Airtel remained second with 68.04 million subscribers after adding about 600,000 connections, while Globacom increased its subscriber base by approximately 300,000 to 23.8 million.
Together, MTN and Airtel controlled approximately 86.2 percent of Nigeria’s active telephone lines in September, reinforcing the dominance of the country’s two largest mobile network operators.
MTN alone accounted for more than half of the market, with its 104.65 million subscribers representing approximately 52.3 percent of total active connections.
The concentration has important implications for competition, investment and service quality. As the two largest operators attract most of the industry’s subscriber growth, smaller competitors face increasing pressure to invest in network capacity, improve customer experience and develop competitive data offerings.
T2mobile, formerly 9mobile, remained at 3.6 million subscribers for the third consecutive month, highlighting its prolonged struggle to regain growth in a market where competitors are expanding their customer bases.
The industry’s recovery is also reflected in the rising telecommunications penetration rate. Teledensity increased from 91.07 percent in August to 92.41 percent in September, indicating expanding access to mobile connections across the country.
If the industry sustains its average monthly subscriber growth rate of approximately 1.27 percent recorded between April and September, active connections could reach between 207.5 million and 208.2 million by December 2026.
Seasonal SIM activations, increased smartphone purchases and higher demand for mobile connectivity during the Christmas and New Year holidays are expected to support further expansion.
Beyond voice subscriptions, Nigeria’s internet market is also recording growth, although the economics of connectivity are increasingly shifting towards data consumption.
Internet subscriptions, excluding internet service providers, increased to 160.9 million in September from 158.5 million in August. Mobile networks accounted for approximately 160.4 million of these connections, with MTN leading at 86.5 million internet subscribers, followed by Airtel with 57.2 million.
Globacom added approximately 151,000 internet users to reach 15.9 million, while T2mobile remained unchanged at 810,010.
Data consumption, however, moderated slightly to 1.731 million terabytes in September from 1.756 million terabytes in August. Despite the decline, September recorded the second-highest monthly consumption level, indicating the growing importance of mobile internet to Nigerians’ everyday activities.
The expansion of video streaming, social media, digital payments, online entertainment and other bandwidth-intensive services is changing how Nigerians use telecommunications networks.
Platforms such as YouTube, TikTok, Netflix and Instagram are increasing demand for faster connections and higher data allowances. High-definition and 4K video streaming, in particular, can consume significantly more bandwidth than conventional browsing and messaging.
This shift is increasing the commercial importance of 4G and 5G infrastructure as operators seek to convert growing internet demand into higher data revenues.
Nigeria’s network transition is also gathering momentum. The NCC’s September figures show that 5G market share increased to 5.05 percent from 4.92 percent in August, crossing the five percent threshold for the first time since the commission began tracking the technology in May 2023.
In contrast, 3G market share declined to 4.16 percent from 4.27 percent, extending its downward trajectory from 5.32 percent in April 2026.
The crossover, which first occurred in August when 5G reached 4.92 percent against 3G’s 4.27 percent, signals a gradual transition towards newer mobile technologies.
However, the pace of 5G adoption remains relatively slow compared with the scale of investment being committed by operators.
From 3.77 percent in December 2025 to 5.05 percent in September 2026, 5G gained just 1.28 percentage points over nine months, averaging approximately 0.14 percentage points monthly. At that pace, the technology could take another seven months to reach 6 percent market share.
Operators are nevertheless expanding infrastructure to accelerate adoption. Airtel Nigeria’s chief executive officer, Dinesh Balsingh, said during the company’s Open Network launch that Airtel had deployed more than 1,000 5G telecom towers in 2026 as part of its investment drive to improve network quality and expand coverage.
MTN has also continued investing in its network infrastructure to accommodate increasing data traffic and improve connectivity.
The availability of more affordable mid-range 5G smartphones, alongside the expansion of network sites in major urban centres such as Lagos, Abuja and Port Harcourt, is expected to support wider adoption.
The emergence of fixed wireless access services, including 5G outdoor devices and broadband routers, is also creating additional demand for high-speed mobile networks as households and businesses seek alternatives to conventional fixed broadband connections.
For Nigeria’s telecom industry, crossing 200 million active lines is a significant recovery milestone, but the next phase of growth will depend less on the number of SIM cards activated and more on the quality, affordability and economic value of connectivity.
With MTN and Airtel consolidating their market positions, data consumption remaining elevated and 5G gradually replacing legacy technologies, the industry’s challenge is to translate subscriber growth into better network experiences, broader broadband access and stronger digital economic activity.