The defeat of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in last Saturday’s Osun State governorship election has exposed deep-seated internal disagreements within the party, growing voter dissatisfaction with the economic situation in the country and the formidable grassroots structure of Governor Ademola Adeleke.
Findings by our correspondent showed that some aggrieved APC members and stakeholders, despite the party’s assurances that internal differences had been resolved, allegedly worked against the interest of the party during the election.
The development has raised fresh concerns within the APC over its ability to manage internal interests and retain its dominance in the South-West ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Adeleke, the Accord candidate, defeated Bola Oyebamiji of the APC to secure a second term in office, delivering a major political setback to the ruling party in one of President Bola Tinubu’s strongest political regions.
Before the election, several prominent APC members and aspirants had expressed grievances over the party’s governorship primary, following the disqualification of some aspirants, which paved the way for Oyebamiji’s emergence as the party’s candidate.
Although the APC leadership subsequently announced that it had reconciled the aggrieved aspirants and stakeholders, sources within the party told BusinessDay on Sunday that some unresolved interests persisted until election day.
According to the sources, some of the aggrieved party members were either reluctant to mobilise support for the APC candidate or worked indirectly against his chances at the polls.
Beyond the internal crisis, however, BusinessDay gathered that Adeleke’s incumbency, grassroots network and performance during his first four-year tenure played a major role in the outcome.
Some APC insiders also acknowledged that Adeleke’s decision to endorse President Tinubu for a second term before the election helped to soften opposition to him among some voters sympathetic to the President.
The endorsement was seen by some stakeholders as a strategic move that enabled Adeleke to separate his state-level contest from the broader political rivalry between the APC and its opponents ahead of 2027.
Bernard Mikko, former member of the House of Representatives and ex- governorship aspirant, told BusinessDay in a telephone interview that the outcome reflected growing dissatisfaction among Nigerians over the country’s economic and security challenges.
Mikko, a political scientist, said the APC’s defeat was largely a reaction to the hardship confronting citizens.
‘I think the APC’s defeat is largely due to the determination of Nigerians, particularly the people of Osun State. The hunger, the insecurity and the collapse of systems in Nigeria are part of the reaction from Nigerians,’ he said.
According to him, the Osun result could have wider implications for the 2027 general elections, as voters were becoming more determined to use their ballots to demand better governance.
‘I think it is an indication that the people are more determined not only to cast their votes but to create a better Nigeria that will serve the interests of all,’ Mikko said.
Jackson Lekan Ojo, a political analyst, also told BusinessDay that Adeleke benefited substantially from the support of the electorate, particularly because of his performance in office and his extensive political network across the state.
Ojo said the Adeleke political family had built a formidable grassroots structure over the years, giving the governor an advantage that the APC struggled to neutralise.
‘The APC’s campaign faced the challenge of selling Oyebamiji against a sitting governor who had spent four years building his political profile across the state,’ he said.
He added that the federal government’s inability to sufficiently address economic hardship, insecurity, unemployment and the rising cost of living also affected the APC’s chances.
The election, Ojo noted, demonstrated that control of the federal government does not automatically translate into victory in a state governorship election.
‘Despite the APC controlling the federal government and its traditional strength in the South-West, Adeleke secured re-election on the platform of Accord. This will have serious implications on the 2027 poll,’ he said.
Chief Chekwas Okorie, elder statesman and former presidential candidate, described the Osun election as a rehearsal for the 2027 general elections and commended President Tinubu for allowing the electoral process to proceed without undue interference.
Okorie, however, urged the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to improve the functionality of its biometric voter accreditation system to minimise technical challenges and strengthen confidence in future elections.
Analysts say the result has also elevated Adeleke’s political profile beyond Osun, potentially making him a more influential figure in the South-West’s political calculations ahead of 2027.
For the APC, therefore, the Osun defeat goes beyond losing a governorship election. Observers say it is a warning that the party must urgently address internal grievances, strengthen its grassroots structures and reconnect with voters on issues of economic hardship, insecurity, unemployment and the rising cost of living if it hopes to consolidate its hold on the South-West and remain electorally competitive in 2027.