Nigeria’s housing shortage has long been a headline number, but for the first time in years, the country has something close to a reliable figure to work with.
A federal technical committee set up under the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development and working with the World Bank on methodology put the national deficit at 14.9 million housing units for 2025, replacing decades of estimates that swung anywhere from 17 million to 28 million units.
A separate assessment using an ‘Adequate Housing Index’ found a further 15.2 million existing homes fall short of basic standards for water, sanitation, electricity or safety.
Osun State sits inside that national picture, and recent activity suggests it is becoming one of the more closely watched markets in the South-West.
The Federal Housing Authority broke ground this year on a 241-unit estate in Osogbo, developed on 33.3 hectares along the East Bypass through a public-private partnership with Summit Group Limited one of several such federal housing pushes launched across the country in 2026 alongside similar projects in Ogun, Abia, Akwa Ibom and Kaduna states. The project is designed as a mixed-use development, combining residential units with commercial space and recreational facilities.
For private developers, the appeal of a state like Osun is straightforward: land is more available and comparatively affordable next to Lagos and Ibadan, the state sits on a major South-West corridor, and government-backed projects are already testing the market and building supporting infrastructure.
But the sector’s obstacles are also well known. Mortgage penetration in Nigeria remains below 1 percent of GDP compared to roughly 31 percent in South Africa and 77 percent in the United States which means most housing in the country is still financed out of pocket rather than through structured lending. Land titling is another persistent constraint: as of a few years ago, over 60 percent of Nigeria’s land area lacked formal title, and a majority of landlords nationally do not hold documented title to their property.
Adekunle Ibraheem, chairman of the Real Estate Developers Association of Nigeria (REDAN) Osun State Chapter and CEO of Evermark Homes, says these are the two issues developers in the state raise most often.
‘Access to structured financing and clarity around land titling are what determine whether a project gets built or stays on paper,’ he said.
‘We’re seeing genuine interest in Osun, but developers need policy support that matches that interest faster approvals, clearer title processes, and financing instruments that don’t rely entirely on personal capital.’
He argues that the state’s relatively lower entry costs, compared to Lagos, make it an attractive testing ground for mid-income housing models rather than only luxury developments.
‘The opportunity in Osun isn’t in replicating Lagos-style luxury estates. It’s in building housing stock that middle-income earners and young families can actually afford, at scale,’ he said.
Analysts tracking the broader market expect Nigeria’s real estate sector to keep growing one recent estimate put the market at roughly $32 billion in 2025, rising toward $40 billion by 2030 but note that growth will be uneven across states, shaped by which local governments move fastest on land reform and infrastructure. For now, Osun’s combination of federal pilot projects, available land, and an active REDAN chapter pushing for policy engagement puts it on the list of states worth watching as Nigeria works through its housing shortfall.