THE country’s raw sugar production could fall below two million metric tons (MMT) in the new crop year as torrential downpours and pest infestation battered plantations in Negros.
The Sugar Regulatory Administration (SRA) issued Sugar Order 1, where it indicated that raw sugar output in the crop year 2025-2026 could decline by nearly 8 percent to 1.92 MMT from the previous crop year’s 2.085 MMT.
SRA Administrator Pablo Luis Azcona told the BusinessMirror that the projected outlook in the upcoming crop year, set to begin on October 1, stemmed from excessive rainfall in Negros, which accounts for over 60 percent of the country’s sugar production.
The agency noted that the initial forecast could further decrease owing to the potential impact of red-striped soft-scale insects (RSSI) infestation on yield.
‘It’s an estimate based on the heavy rainfall experienced in the north of Negros, and [there] might be a small drop considering the presence of RSSI,’ Azcona told this newspaper.
Under the SO 1, the raw sugar allocation for the new crop year would be classified as ‘B,’ which means all sugar produced until September 30 next year will be sold for domestic consumption.
The SRA said the agency has been classifying sugar output as ‘B’ since 2022 because the country’s production is still below the requirement of the domestic market.
While the impact of RSSI on sugar content was the easiest to monitor, he raised a caveat that the infestation’s impact could potentially trickle into the cane’s growth.
‘In the North, they said canes that were infected at their early stage didn’t seem to grow. So, maybe there’s also an effect on tonnage,’ Azcona said.
With the latest findings, the SRA chief noted that the agency now expects raw sugar output to fall by around 10 percent.
‘We reduced [our forecast] a bit and then we’re leaving room plus or minus a few percentage points, give or take about 10 percent, just in case the infestation can’t be curbed,’ he said.
‘Our fear is that once the milling starts, the sugarcanes will be going around all over Negros. There’s a high chance that the infestation will affect more areas.’
Azcona said the pest has infected around 6,600 hectares of sugar plantations nationwide as of mid-September, with the infestation in Negros Island accounting for the lion’s share at 4,200 hectares.