THE first parliamentary election in the Bangsamoro is shaping up to be a critical test of the region’s political transition as persistent violence, deepening political divisions and weak public confidence threaten to overshadow the historic vote, the latest Boto Mo Bangsamoro! bulletin of Climate Conflict Action Asia (CCAA) and the Early Response Network (ERN) said.
The two groups also noted that political activities have intensified across the region, with parties holding rallies, caravans and assemblies to consolidate support.
But beneath the campaign activity is a more uncertain political environment marked by rising tensions, insecurity and questions about public confidence in the Bangsamoro political settlement.
The political climate deteriorated following the August 15 ambush involving the convoy of Bangsamoro Interim Chief Minister Abdulraof Macacua in Datu Odin Sinsuat, Maguindanao del Norte. The incident has further widened divisions within the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and contributed to political polarization, according to the bulletin.
Tensions quickly spilled over into other incidents.
Two days after the ambush, a man allegedly threatened a supporter of an opposing political party in Cotabato City over comments about the incident. On August 17, a bodyguard of a barangay chairman and political party supporter was shot dead outside his home in Tugunan.
They said clan conflicts have also continued across the region, with incidents reported in Sultan Kudarat, Lanao del Sur and Maguindanao del Sur. In Shariff Saydona Mustapha, a recurring rido or family feud rooted in a land dispute erupted anew on August 29, displacing about 30 families.
CCAA and ERN said the persistence of armed violence has raised questions about the effectiveness of the election gun ban. Data from the Critical Events Monitoring System showed 58 gun-related incidents during the six-week period after the gun ban took effect, compared with 44 incidents during the preceding six weeks. Deaths also increased from 34 to 39.
They described the security situation as complicated, exacerbated by the unfinished process of decommissioning and continuing tensions between the government and the MILF.
CCAA and ERN said the government-MILF agreement on August 31 established guidelines for mutual understanding on cease-fire related functions. However, just two days later, an armed MILF convoy was blocked by the military in Kolambugan, Lanao del Norte, prompting authorities to remind the group to coordinate movements through the Bangsamoro peace-process mechanisms.
CCAA and ERN said the developments underscore the difficulties of translating the peace agreement into a functioning political settlement.
Extremist threat
CCAA and ERN said the election environment is also being complicated by the continuing threat of extremist violence.
The bulletin cited military operations against alleged members and supporters of Dawla Islamiyah (DI), including the August 29 operation in Marawi City that resulted in the deaths of a suspected DI member, his wife and their seven-month-old child.
The incident has reportedly been used by extremist sympathizers as propaganda to generate public sympathy and potentially encourage recruitment, particularly among young people.
CCAA and ERN said the emerging threat requires stronger monitoring and coordination beyond military operations, including greater involvement of community groups and relevant agencies.
The concern, according to CCAA and ERN, is that continuing extremist violence could trigger another cycle of conflict and undermine the broader Bangsamoro political settlement.
Beyond physical security, the CCAA and ERN pointed out that the credibility of the parliamentary election could also be affected by limited voter education and uncertainty about the new electoral system.
Interviews conducted through the Aksyon Alerto program found that some community members remained unfamiliar with the voting process. Some also reported limited voter education activities in their areas.
Where voter education activities were conducted, CCAA and ERN reported some were reportedly perceived as opportunities for political parties to campaign rather than explain voting procedures.
The problem is particularly significant because the parliamentary election differs from previous local elections. Rather than choosing familiar local officials, voters are selecting representatives to a regional legislature.
This could weaken the sense of personal or family involvement that traditionally drives participation in local contests.
Low turnout could also reflect broader doubts about the ability of the Bangsamoro government to deliver tangible improvements in people’s lives.
The election comes as the Bangsamoro continues to confront longstanding socio-economic problems.
During an August 27 debate involving the 13 political parties participating in the parliamentary election, candidates discussed persistent concerns involving the economy and human development, peace and security, and good governance.
Violence remains a major concern, with rido, tribal conflict and extremist activity continuing to affect communities. The heavy deployment of security forces for the election itself illustrates how deeply entrenched violence has become during electoral periods.
Basic services remain another challenge. The bulletin pointed to concerns over the quality of health facilities and education, including allegations of corruption involving the education bureau. Although poverty has declined, many communities continue to experience economic hardship.
The CCAA and ERN said the Bangsamoro will enter its first parliamentary election at a critical juncture.
They said the vote offers an opportunity for citizens to select leaders capable of addressing the region’s longstanding problems and strengthening the political settlement.
But without sustainable solutions to insecurity, weak public services, political polarization and declining confidence in the electoral process, the CCAA and ERN said the region could enter a new political chapter carrying many of the same challenges that have defined its transition.
The Bangsamoro, as the CCAA-ERN assessment puts it, is at a crossroads.