THE Bangsamoro’s transition from armed conflict to self-government remains vulnerable to local violence as weak policing, political rivalries, clan feuds and easy access to firearms continue to strain the region’s security institutions, according to the International Crisis Group (ICG).
Despite the 2014 peace agreement that ended decades of conflict between the Philippine government and Moro Islamic Liberation Front, violence continues to flare across the autonomous region, driven increasingly by local disputes rather than large-scale rebellion.
‘Violence still flares as clan feuds, political rivalries and criminal rackets rattle the region,’ the Crisis Group said in its report, ‘Policing the Bangsamoro: Peace in the Southern Philippines.’
Large-scale fighting may have stopped, but, the report said, more than a third of young people in the region have experienced armed conflict within or near their homes since 2019.
A local civil society leader described the situation as one of ‘controlled peace.’
Military fills policing gap
One of the biggest weaknesses in the Bangsamoro transition is policing, with the national police struggling to respond to violence in some of the region’s most conflict-affected areas.
Police officers face limited manpower and equipment, making it difficult to deal with complex clan feuds that can erupt without warning, according to the report.
In parts of Maguindanao most affected by conflict, police even struggle to conduct routine patrols, leaving law and order largely in the hands of the military.
A senior police officer told Crisis Group that the force could handle ‘soft targets’ but still needed back-up when operations took place in a ‘harsh’ environment.
That has left the Armed Forces of the Philippines as the dominant security institution in the Bangsamoro.
Yet the Crisis Group warned that while the military has greater operational capacity, it is ‘ill-suited to handling local conflicts over the long run.’
Communities often see the police as weaker, more politicized and less dependable than the military, further complicating efforts to shift responsibility for public order toward civilian law enforcement.
Guns fuel recurring violence
Persistent local conflicts have also been made deadlier by the widespread availability of firearms.
Decades of war have made weapons ubiquitous in the Bangsamoro, where guns are viewed as symbols of status and power and are carried by members of armed groups, local politicians, civilians and former combatants.
Police estimated in late 2024 that the region had more than 27,000 unregistered firearms, according to the report.
A separate estimate cited by Crisis Group placed the number of legally registered firearms at around 20,000.
High-caliber weapons, including machine guns and assault rifles, can quickly intensify local disputes and increase the likelihood of casualties and retaliatory violence, the report said.
Efforts to address the problem remain difficult, with activists telling Crisis Group that firearms continue to move in and out of the Bangsamoro without effective means of tracing them.
Peace deal still unfinished
Key provisions of the 2014 peace agreement also remain unfulfilled more than a decade after it was signed.
These include the decommissioning of former rebels, the redeployment of military forces outside the Bangsamoro and the disarmament of private militias.
Some 14,000 fighters and 2,450 weapons still had to be decommissioned when the report was prepared.
Integration of former MILF and Moro National Liberation Front fighters into the police force has likewise produced limited results.
More than 11,000 applicants took a special eligibility examination in 2022, with 7,145 passing, but only about 400 positions were earmarked for former fighters and just 396 eventually joined the police force.
Justice remains out of reach
Weak policing is only one part of the region’s broader security problem.
Courts remain slow and difficult to access, particularly for poor Bangsamoro residents facing long distances, case backlogs and high costs.
Those weaknesses can allow disputes to remain unresolved or resurface, sometimes triggering fresh rounds of violence and retaliation between rival clans.
The Crisis Group said stronger and more professional policing, better coordination between the military and police, improved access to justice and tighter control of firearms would be needed to prevent local violence from undermining the transition.
‘Communities will not feel safe until the peace gets the policing it needs,’ the report said.