El Niño is one weather phenomenon we should not take for granted. It can do more damage to the economy and the population than higher oil prices-and its adverse effects can be more lasting.
Water supply and food security are the most vulnerable from this freak of nature. Water elevation at Angat Dam in Bulacan, for one, already dipped to an alarming record low of 152.12 meters in the middle of last week.
The dam’s water level is 28.43 meters below its 180-meter minimum operating level and well below its 212-meter normal high water level. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, or Pagasa, earlier said the water level could hit 150 meters by the end of July.
The agency warned the water level at the dam may even drop to 149 meters, especially with the El Niño episode expected to persist in the coming months.
The receding water level directly impacts on our agricultural farmers. Less irrigation from dams could mean reduced farm output and lower farmers’ income. I can already imagine the anxiety of our farmers.
The water elevation of San Roque Dam in Pangasinan last week plunged from 277.44 meters to 227.41 meters; Pantabangan Dam in Nueva Ecija from 176.82 meters to 176.64 meters; and Caliraya Dam in Laguna from 287.05 meters to 287.00 meters. These dams primarily supply water to the Cagayan Valley region and Central Luzon, or the Rice Granary of the Philippines.
House Speaker Faustino G. Dy III, who hails from Isabela, is naturally alarmed over the creeping El Niño. Speaking at the House Committee on Agriculture and Food’s El Niño briefing, Mr. Dy stressed that the country has already experienced the severe consequences of prolonged drought on agriculture, food supply and the economy.
The country’s rice output in recent years has declined and El Niño couldn’t come at a better time. Philippine rice production contracted from 2023 to 2024 by 12 percent to 15 percent, leading to higher rice prices and affecting millions of Filipinos.
I commiserate with Mr. Dy’s home province. Prolonged dry conditions are damaging farmlands, straining irrigation systems and contributing to fish kills in the Magat Reservoir.
As in any impending disaster, it is best for authorities to plan ahead and minimize the damage of El Niño, or any weather disturbance for that matter.
The monitoring of Magat Dam’s water levels and coordination with irrigation managers to plan water releases and predict available water supply are critical before conditions worsen.
Assistance to farmers and fisher folk, including fuel subsidies, will likewise soften the blow on the rural economy while advancing longer-term investments in irrigation systems are equally urgent. It is time for authorities to invest more on water-efficient technologies, climate-resilient agriculture and additional water-harvesting and multipurpose dam projects to counter El Niño.
As I have been saying in this column, the government must invest more on irrigation canals to insulate our farmers from hot weather conditions.
The United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that more blistering heatwaves and other weather extremes are becoming increasingly likely across the world now and in the coming months.
According to WHO’s monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update, strong El Niño conditions are expected to develop rapidly from July to September, with ‘high confidence’ in this outlook.
It is based on multi-model forecasting from WMO partners, which indicates a ‘consistent and significant warming of ocean temperatures’ across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, with seasonal-average sea-surface temperature anomalies expected to exceed 2°C in monitored regions.
Drier weather patterns are also forecast in parts of Indonesia and Southeast Asia during the monsoon season.
El Niño events typically occur every two to seven years and usually last between nine and 12 months. They often begin developing between March and June, reach peak intensity between November and February, and exert their strongest influence on global temperatures in the year following their onset.
The Philippines lies on the western side of the Pacific Ocean, where extreme weather conditions usually develop. El Niño and La Nina should always prepare us for any eventuality to minimize disaster risks, and protect our population and livelihoods.